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Cluster Family Office Blog

On the hunt for the Spanish elephant

We are in the eye of the storm. But not because of injustice or envy of our northern neighbours—no—but because of our own foolishness. That foolishness which has led us in the past to vote for governments of both political stripes, yet with one thing in common: an inability to manage the Spanish economy. We have missed a golden opportunity, given that economic growth and the surge in job creation in the Eurozone allowed us to boast of macroeconomic figures that made even those of France itself pale in comparison. And so Zapatero proclaimed on occasion, although today it is the Mercozy duo who must stifle their feelings in the face of the grotesque and surreal tragicomedy of the current periphery. «Spain is doing well,» we proclaimed to the four winds just a decade ago. Those were years when illusions of grandeur led the presidents of Spain and Portugal to meet in the Azores with the very presidents of the United Kingdom and the United States of America. Aznar, Barroso, Blair and Bush together shaping the plans that were to govern the New World Order. That was only nine years ago, but it seems so long ago…

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What do you want from Spain, Mr Market?

En muchas tertulias y medios escritos estamos escuchando voces que proclaman la insensatez y el delirio de los Mercados respecto a la situación de la economía española. Se argumenta que, el hecho de que antes de hacer públicos los presupuestos más austeros de la democracia española Mr. Market penalizase los intereses españoles, y que después del tijeretazo también lo hagan, es una prueba irrefutable de la demencia de los Mercados. Dicen que esa es la prueba de que las directrices económicas de este país deben marcarse al margen de lo que los Mercados puedan opinar. Que «la dictadura de los Mercados» es algo que debemos obviar y contra lo que hay que luchar… Pero no. Veamos algunas de las razonas por las cuales no debemos ni podemos obviar a Mr. Market: (more…)

Banca española: Rescate o Default

Ya es un secreto a voces que la banca española debe ser rescatada con fondos europeos. Pese a que oficialmente aún se niega, altos dirigentes europeos son los que han empezado a hacer declaraciones ante los medios, quitando hierro a la estigmatización que supone el hecho de que los bancos españoles deban ser rescatados como Grecia, Irlanda o Portugal. Los fondos provendrán de los tristemente conocidos Fondo Europeo de Estabilización Financiera (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Y parece que la banca española no puede ya maquillar por mas tiempo su insolvencia.

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The perversion of counselling

First of all, we must tell you that the subject we are going to deal with today is complex and may offend some professional sensibilities. But that is not our intention at all, but rather our interest is focused on clarifying a situation that is currently generating a lot of confusion and, more importantly, is damaging families with a certain amount of wealth. Both large fortunes and small savers. We will therefore discuss, for example, Santander's convertible bonds, the recent inflammatory statements by Greg Smith (ex-Goldman Sachs), the types of assets that a properly diversified wealth should contain, the Spanish and Luxembourg regulators, banking, EAFIs, Family Office, or how to distinguish between a perverse advice and a perverse advice. comme il faut. We apologise for the length of the post, but we have chosen to publish it in its entirety so as not to lose the thread in the middle of the reflections that follow. (more…)

The State of Trade Union Emergency

That exceptional measures should be taken in exceptional situations is pure common sense. And the State of Emergency is a regime that can be declared by the government of a country in special situations. It is a temporary mechanism contemplated in the constitutions of countries in the event that a government determines that an extraordinary situation exists, such as a natural catastrophe, serious disturbance of internal order, foreign war or any other danger considered sufficiently serious, in order to deal with it adequately. A state of emergency usually involves the suspension or restriction of certain fundamental rights, and implies temporariness, until the exceptional situation is regularised. It is also known as a state of alarm, siege or emergency.

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Customer Risk: Cause or excuse for bad management?

This week I came across an article published in FundsPeople titled «Client risk in private banking management«. These are obviously arguments put forward by bankers and former private bankers, which already distorts considerably the reality of what wealth management in general and financial investment in particular should be, as we said back in 2008 in «...".«The unbearable lightness of management»(private banking). We advance this warning because the FundsPeople article only deals with the management of bank investments, i.e. money invested in bank investment products, shares handpicked by the bankers and ex-bankers on duty and other investment funds listed in the bank's sales catalogue. We want to make it clear that there is a fundamental deviation from the way we should treat families' money, which should include investments in unlisted companies (private equity), real estate investments and other assets in which, in order to invest, the money must come out of the bank's account. Obviously, private banks do without such investments, as their mission is to keep their clients' money in the bank that generates their income at the end of the month.

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Employment trends in 2012

A continuación os traemos un artículo de una colaboradora que nos ha solicitado publicar algunos de sus artículos en este blog. Sofía Sánchez es una escritora, graduada de Florida International University, con especialización  en escrituras sobre la política, economía y tendencias laborales. Os dejamos con su artículo sobre dichas tendencias en el mundo laboral:

La importancia de quedarse sin trabajo va más allá del evidente shock inicial que supone la pérdida de poderadquisitivo. Expertos en psicología laboral afirman que el estatus de desempleado al que han tenido que verseabocados tantos trabajadores cualificados, provoca un inquietante aumento de casos de depresión. Sin embargo,no hay que perder los nervios ni desanimarse, pues es precisamente ese desánimo el peor enemigo del solicitante. (more…)

The Financial Tarot for 2012

Knowing which types of assets or which companies’ shares are going to skyrocket in the coming months is the pipe dream of those who, rather than investing, speculate. Of those who are hoping for a windfall to bail them out of the financial difficulties they have got themselves into through their own foolishness. But even if Lady Luck were to smile on them, their poor judgement would remain just as bad. Consequently, they will believe themselves to be shrewd investors rather than merely lucky, and their cycle of financial difficulties, windfalls and further difficulties will repeat itself, at best. In the long run, the result for most of them is that their forays as speculators (even though they describe themselves as investors), far from supplementing their income, cost them a significant portion of the wages they have earned through the sweat of their brow over the years. And if at any point they were to make an objective calculation of their gains and losses—something they consciously or unconsciously avoid doing—the balance sheet would reveal the harsh reality: that throughout their investing lives, a large part of their own and their families’ well-being has been taken by Mr Market. (more…)

The EU’s three basic tools

Como dijimos ya hace un par de semanas en «El Eurobono ha venido y nadie sabe cómo ha sido (2)», el crédito ilimitado del BCE con vencimiento a 3 años (LTRO) ha cambiado radicalmente el escenario europeo. La primera ronda de estas Operaciones de Refinanciación a Largo Plazo, y la segunda prevista para Febrero, han disipado el riesgo de colapso inminente del sistema financiero de la UE. No obstante a nadie se le debe escapar que la eliminación de la inmediatez del colapso no supone solución alguna al problema de fondo, pero sí es cierto que sirve para rebajar algunos grados el infierno en el que vive el la banca europea. (more…)

Un mundo sin calificadoras de riesgo (3)

«¿Qué pasaría si las calificadoras de riesgo dejaran de existir? Es una pregunta que aún pocos nos hacemos hoy en día, pero que nos lleva a reflexiones interesantísimas.» Así comenzaba the article que publicamos hace más de 2 años. Lamentablemente hoy es un debate que ocupa las portadas de los medios por motivos muy tristes, ya que se cuestiona el rol de las calificadoras única y exclusivamente porque han rebajado masivamente los ratings europeos. Esta misma reacción (la de la opinión pública e institucional) ya ocurrió con el downgrade del rating de Portugal, aunque en menor medida. Manda huevos que las corruptas e incompetentes calificadoras sean las más lúcidas en este mundo de locos endeudados. Os dejamos releer aquel breve artículo del 16 de Diciembre de 2009, parece que fue ayer, y después haremos varias reflexiones al respecto, algunas de las cuales ya comentamos en la segunda parte del artículo el pasado verano. Reflexiones que lamentablemente son tan vigentes como hace 4 años.  (more…)