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Category: Reflexion

Customer Risk: Cause or excuse for bad management?

This week I came across an article published in FundsPeople titled «Client risk in private banking management«. These are obviously arguments put forward by bankers and former private bankers, which already distorts considerably the reality of what wealth management in general and financial investment in particular should be, as we said back in 2008 in «...".«The unbearable lightness of management»(private banking). We advance this warning because the FundsPeople article only deals with the management of bank investments, i.e. money invested in bank investment products, shares handpicked by the bankers and ex-bankers on duty and other investment funds listed in the bank's sales catalogue. We want to make it clear that there is a fundamental deviation from the way we should treat families' money, which should include investments in unlisted companies (private equity), real estate investments and other assets in which, in order to invest, the money must come out of the bank's account. Obviously, private banks do without such investments, as their mission is to keep their clients' money in the bank that generates their income at the end of the month.

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The Financial Tarot for 2012

Knowing which types of assets or which companies’ shares are going to skyrocket in the coming months is the pipe dream of those who, rather than investing, speculate. Of those who are hoping for a windfall to bail them out of the financial difficulties they have got themselves into through their own foolishness. But even if Lady Luck were to smile on them, their poor judgement would remain just as bad. Consequently, they will believe themselves to be shrewd investors rather than merely lucky, and their cycle of financial difficulties, windfalls and further difficulties will repeat itself, at best. In the long run, the result for most of them is that their forays as speculators (even though they describe themselves as investors), far from supplementing their income, cost them a significant portion of the wages they have earned through the sweat of their brow over the years. And if at any point they were to make an objective calculation of their gains and losses—something they consciously or unconsciously avoid doing—the balance sheet would reveal the harsh reality: that throughout their investing lives, a large part of their own and their families’ well-being has been taken by Mr Market. (more…)

The EU’s three basic tools

Como dijimos ya hace un par de semanas en «El Eurobono ha venido y nadie sabe cómo ha sido (2)», el crédito ilimitado del BCE con vencimiento a 3 años (LTRO) ha cambiado radicalmente el escenario europeo. La primera ronda de estas Operaciones de Refinanciación a Largo Plazo, y la segunda prevista para Febrero, han disipado el riesgo de colapso inminente del sistema financiero de la UE. No obstante a nadie se le debe escapar que la eliminación de la inmediatez del colapso no supone solución alguna al problema de fondo, pero sí es cierto que sirve para rebajar algunos grados el infierno en el que vive el la banca europea. (more…)

Is there a way out of this tortuous path? By Vicente Varó of UNIENCE

On 11 January Unience published the document you will see below. It brings together 31 very diverse views from analysts and investment professionals. Perhaps it is precisely because of this diversity that it is worth examining in detail. (more…)

The Eurobond has arrived and nobody knows how it happened (Part 2)

We had already warned of this in the first part of this article. It has been a masterstroke, not because it has outmanoeuvred Merkel and her reluctance to let the ECB assume the country risk of the periphery, but because it has squared the circle at a political and pseudo-economic level. It is called LTRO (Long-Term Refinancing Operations). This move is nothing other than the ECB opening the floodgates for European banks to borrow € (and $) without limit. But the secret of the potion lies in the repayment term, as the funds have been lent on demand, at a ridiculously low rate, but for a whopping three years. That is the key. And consequently, a second round has been announced for February this year, for those who were too slow off the mark to catch the first train to the paradise of infinite and cheap liquidity. (more…)

What to do with the lottery jackpot. Will I be able to hold on to my fortune?

«Lottery, inheritance, fortune, wealth, management, advice, investment, money, money, money… These are coveted words that can turn into real nightmares. The million-dollar question – the one that’s vital for a new lottery winner – is: »What should I do with the prize and with my life?’” That’s how it began one of the many articles which we have published on the management of windfalls, whether they be inheritances, lottery winnings or various other windfalls. On the day of the Christmas lottery draw, I mustn’t forget to mention the all-too-easy self-deception to which RTVE invites us.

The public broadcaster’s website invites us to take part in a rather dangerous bit of fun. As you’ll see in sifueramillonario.rtve.es, any dreamer who wants to visualise the far-fetched growth of their lottery windfall over time can have a play with this app. But you’d be better off not giving any credence to the conclusions calculated by this website, because managing a fortune or wealth goes infinitely beyond the handful of simple and unrealistic calculations used by that site, which will no doubt be receiving tens or hundreds of thousands of visits these days. Let’s see why. (more…)

The Flight to Quality in Solvency

We have already pointed this out in previous articles this year's , by all means y passively, and also in 2010, Solvency – that precious and increasingly scarce treasure that will preserve our wealth over time – has deserted the fixed-income markets of developed countries and companies. The big question is: if we can no longer trust the creditworthiness of European bonds or of companies on this side of the globe with debts as colossal as those of the very states to which they belong, then where on earth has creditworthiness gone? (more…)

Some central banks are preparing for an exit from the euro.

«Some central banks in Europe are beginning to assess contingency plans for the possibility that some countries may leave the euro area or that the monetary union may collapse completely».» This is the headline of the article published today in Expansión, which translates the original published By David Enrich, Deborah Ball, Alistair MacDonald and Francesco Guerrera on the front page of the Wall Street Journal online. Here is the full text, because it is not to be missed, in this countdown to the re-founding or collapse of the Eurozone. And don't miss the commentary and the graph we have added at the end of the article: (more…)

‘Made in the USA’ employment and the root cause of species collapse.

Whilst we Europeans eagerly await 9 or 12 December to see the outcome of what appears to be brewing in Chef Merkozy’s secret kitchens, the latest unemployment figures have been published in the US. Now that the technical recession has, at least officially, been left behind, US unemployment appears to be trending more clearly downwards. The following chart from Chartoftheday.com It’s quite simple and speaks for itself. Although the fall in US unemployment is not happening at the same pace as in previous recessions, there’s no denying that it is happening. (more…)

The Eurobond has arrived and nobody knows how it happened…

The secret will not be revealed until Monday 12 December. But given what we have seen in terms of the cowardice, mediocrity and financial incompetence of the EU’s politicians and bureaucrats, coupled with the conflicting interests of the Merkozy duo, it cannot be ruled out that the eagerly awaited announcement on 9 or 12 December will amount to yet another ineffective stopgap measure. Nevertheless, hopes are pinned more than ever on these statements, which will do nothing more than make public the agreements that have been secretly being hatched since the finance ministers of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland met discreetly last week. (more…)

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