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Category: Reflexion

One less hawk at the ECB... and one less German ECB.

Let's make a very simple and brief emergency analysis of what happened in the markets and within the ECB last Thursday and Friday. As you have all seen, in unison with rumours of a Greek default, the Euro plummeted almost 3% to 1.3650 in less than 48 hours and almost 6% in 10 days. All indicators of Greek default risk were stressed, breaking all-time records. Risk premiums spread, of course, to the rest of the European periphery. Germany leaked the readiness of its bank rescue plan in the face of the imminent Greek default. And markets plunged another 4% across the board, spreading to Wall Street. Meanwhile, politicians continue to juggle grenades, and it seems that the only one lucid enough to realise the impending danger is Mr. Market. (more…)

Constitutional Reform: Necessary and also insufficient

Much is being written about the constitutional reform that is supposedly intended to limit Spain’s public deficit in the coming years. We are all seeing daily statements denouncing that we have been sold out to the markets, that the Constitution has been amended under cover of darkness and with malicious intent, that it is unacceptable for the welfare state to be subordinated to the dictates of the markets, and so on. I would like to draw particular attention to the article published on 1 September in GurusBlog with the explicit title: «The diabolical clause in the constitutional reform that hands Spain over to its creditors«. Just this once – and God forbid this should set a precedent :) – I’m going to disagree with, or perhaps qualify, some of the arguments put forward by the author, Gurus Hucky.”.
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The unbearable levity of the banker

Just a few days ago, we received an email via our website from a private banking employee who shared some heartening and sincere reflections with us. In it, he explains his experiences and concerns, which have led him to share our view of the world of financial advice provided by banks. Naturally, he has asked us to protect his identity to spare him any professional difficulties. Our sincerest congratulations to this honest and far-sighted professional, and we wish him all the best in his financial and personal career. Here is his letter in full: (more…)

The King is naked... and Mr. Market proclaims it.

On 7 August we published the first part of this article «The future of the European Union".«The misunderstood Mr. Market«In it, we tried to analyse what was happening to the market from an objective, fundamental and calm point of view. As you will recall, we said that the general price of companies at a global level was excessively pessimistic with respect to their fundamentals. Today, just 11 days later, markets are once again pricing in disproportionate fears about economic fundamentals, but exasperatingly justified fears about political inoperativeness. (more…)

Marriage and Heritage (2)

It appeared a few days ago the news Curious, though not surprising, that the octogenarian George Soros had been indicted by a 28-year-old Brazilian soap opera actress, Adriana Ferreyr. It seems that the billionaire, who recently retired as a fund manager, allegedly promised the actress to buy her a $2m Manhattan flat. He did in fact buy it, but with such misfortune for Adriana that their relationship broke down immediately afterwards. Her lawyers are now claiming 50M to compensate for the displeasure, moral damage, harassment and I don't know how many other things.

The misunderstood Mr. Market

Nearly two years ago we wrote an article entitled «Economy and Politics«The video showed various videos of trade union leaders and economists. Obviously their speeches were and are not only opposites, but they actually spoke different languages. They are in fact different animals. Their divergences become even more evident and lethal when the situation of the global economy and finance deteriorates, i.e. when their rapport and harmony is most needed. But they do not. The greater the systemic risk, economic deterioration and global complexity, the more governments need to act expeditiously, the more inoperative their policy decisions become. And markets need deeds and not words in these delicate times, firm and courageous action. However, politicians can only offer, as we are currently seeing, empty words, good intentions and populist decisions that keep them in power, inoperative but power nonetheless.
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The debt ceiling rap in the US.

Following the brilliant Hayek vs Keynes videos on first y second version, here comes the rap of the summer with lines like this: «I can afford all sorts of cars, I’ve got all sorts of set-ups; the ladies ask me how I get them, and I tell them: STIMULUS«. You can watch the video below, and the lyrics are transcribed further down. Hope you enjoy it: (more…)

European debt is more debt than others

Haven’t you ever wondered why sovereign debt in the European periphery is under greater strain and why its risk premium is rising faster than that of countries that are just as indebted – or even more so – such as Japan or the US? Why is there so much speculation surrounding the sovereign debt of the PIIGS? Why are these PIIGS economies hurtling towards default or inevitable restructuring, whilst other heavily indebted countries manage to keep the risk premium demanded by the markets at bay?

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The stress of the test

In mid-2010, some well-known Spanish banks were sending us investment proposals in Greek sovereign debt. The reports and analyses we kept receiving insistently said that it was foolish not to take advantage of the yield differential between the bonds of Eurozone countries. They argued vehemently that we should not forget that, after all, this was an EU country, and that the Greeks would never be allowed to default, not even if their bonds depreciated by much more than they did at the time, with yields still hovering around 6%. In other words, little more than the yield on Spanish debt today. The arguments put forward were reasonable and reasoned, except for one small detail: They forgot that two and two are four. (more…)

John Mauldin's predictions for the second half of 2011

It is clear that, in the current climate, predicting what will happen in the second half of the year is risky, to say the least. But despite this, it remains our duty as wealth advisers – and, ultimately, as a family office. Reading or listening to the macroeconomic views of people such as John Mauldin o Ray Dalio, undoubtedly shed light on this sea of financial darkness. His experience and the fact that he has already fought in almost every bullring also lend weight to his interpretation of the past, present and future of the world of finance and investment. (more…)

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