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Category: Reflexion

One less hawk at the ECB... and one less German ECB.

Let's make a very simple and brief emergency analysis of what happened in the markets and within the ECB last Thursday and Friday. As you have all seen, in unison with rumours of a Greek default, the Euro plummeted almost 3% to 1.3650 in less than 48 hours and almost 6% in 10 days. All indicators of Greek default risk were stressed, breaking all-time records. Risk premiums spread, of course, to the rest of the European periphery. Germany leaked the readiness of its bank rescue plan in the face of the imminent Greek default. And markets plunged another 4% across the board, spreading to Wall Street. Meanwhile, politicians continue to juggle grenades, and it seems that the only one lucid enough to realise the impending danger is Mr. Market. (more…)

Constitutional Reform: Necessary and also insufficient

Mucho se está escribiendo sobre la reforma constitucional que presuntamente debe limitar el déficit público español en los próximos años. Todos estamos viendo declaraciones a diario denunciando que si nos han vendido a los Mercados, que si se ha modificado la Constitución con nocturnidad y alevosía, que si es inaceptable que se supedite el Estado del Bienestar al dictado de los Mercados, etc. Especial mención me merece el artículo publicado el pasado día 1 de Septiembre en GurusBlog con el excplícito título: «La diabólica cláusula de la Reforma de la Constitución que entrega España a los acreedores«. Por esta vez, y Dios me libre de que sirva de precedente :), voy a discrepar, o quizá matizar algunos de los argumentos de su autor Gurus Hucky.
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The unbearable levity of the banker

Hace tan solo unos días, recibimos un correo a través de nuestra web, en el que un empleado de banca privada nos hacía unas cuantas reflexiones gratas y sinceras. En él nos explica sus experiencias e inquietudes, que le han llevado a compartir nuestra visión del mundo del asesoramiento financiero que perpetra la banca. Como es lógico, nos ha pedido que protejamos su identidad para evitarle problemas profesionales. Nuestra más sincera felicitación a este profesional honesto y clarividente, y le deseamos lo mejor en su carrera financiera y personal. Aquí tenéis su carta íntegra: (more…)

The King is naked... and Mr. Market proclaims it.

On 7 August we published the first part of this article «The future of the European Union".«The misunderstood Mr. Market«In it, we tried to analyse what was happening to the market from an objective, fundamental and calm point of view. As you will recall, we said that the general price of companies at a global level was excessively pessimistic with respect to their fundamentals. Today, just 11 days later, markets are once again pricing in disproportionate fears about economic fundamentals, but exasperatingly justified fears about political inoperativeness. (more…)

Marriage and Heritage (2)

It appeared a few days ago the news Curious, though not surprising, that the octogenarian George Soros had been indicted by a 28-year-old Brazilian soap opera actress, Adriana Ferreyr. It seems that the billionaire, who recently retired as a fund manager, allegedly promised the actress to buy her a $2m Manhattan flat. He did in fact buy it, but with such misfortune for Adriana that their relationship broke down immediately afterwards. Her lawyers are now claiming 50M to compensate for the displeasure, moral damage, harassment and I don't know how many other things.

The misunderstood Mr. Market

Nearly two years ago we wrote an article entitled «Economy and Politics«The video showed various videos of trade union leaders and economists. Obviously their speeches were and are not only opposites, but they actually spoke different languages. They are in fact different animals. Their divergences become even more evident and lethal when the situation of the global economy and finance deteriorates, i.e. when their rapport and harmony is most needed. But they do not. The greater the systemic risk, economic deterioration and global complexity, the more governments need to act expeditiously, the more inoperative their policy decisions become. And markets need deeds and not words in these delicate times, firm and courageous action. However, politicians can only offer, as we are currently seeing, empty words, good intentions and populist decisions that keep them in power, inoperative but power nonetheless.
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The debt ceiling rap in the US.

Después de los geniales videos de Hayek vs Keynes en first y segunda versión, llega el rap del verano con frases como esta: «bail out all kind of cars, got all kind of whips, ladies ask me how I get em, I tell em STIMULUS«. A continuación podréis ver el video y la letra transcrita más abajo. Que lo disfrutéis: (more…)

European debt is more debt than others

¿Nunca os habéis preguntado por qué la deuda soberana de la periferia europea se tensiona más y su prima de riesgo crece con mayor rapidez que la de países tanto o más endeudados como Japón o EE.UU.? ¿Por qué motivo se especula tanto sobre la deuda soberana de los PIIGS? ¿Cuál es la razón por la que se aboca vertiginosamente a esas economías PIIGS al default o reestructuración inevitable mientras otros países super endeudados mantienen a raya la prima de riesgo que los mercados les exigen?

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The stress of the test

In mid-2010, some well-known Spanish banks were sending us investment proposals in Greek sovereign debt. The reports and analyses we kept receiving insistently said that it was foolish not to take advantage of the yield differential between the bonds of Eurozone countries. They argued vehemently that we should not forget that, after all, this was an EU country, and that the Greeks would never be allowed to default, not even if their bonds depreciated by much more than they did at the time, with yields still hovering around 6%. In other words, little more than the yield on Spanish debt today. The arguments put forward were reasonable and reasoned, except for one small detail: They forgot that two and two are four. (more…)

John Mauldin's predictions for the second half of 2011

Está claro que en los tiempos que corren, predecir lo que va a ocurrir en la segunda mitad del año es cuando menos arriesgado. Pero a pesar de ello, no deja de ser nuestra obligación como asesores de patrimonio, como family office en definitiva. Leer o escuchar las visiones macro de tipos como John Mauldin o Ray Dalio, sin duda arrojan luz en este mar de tinieblas financiero. La experiencia y el hecho de haber ya toreado en casi todas las plazas, añaden también galones a la interpretación del pasado, presente y futuro del mundo de las finanzas y las inversiones. (more…)

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