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Category: gestion financiera

A world without credit rating agencies (3)

«What would happen if credit rating agencies ceased to exist? It is a question that few of us ask ourselves today, but one that leads to some fascinating reflections.»That’s how it began" the article which we published over two years ago. Unfortunately, this debate is now dominating the media headlines for very sad reasons, as the role of the rating agencies is being called into question solely because they have massively downgraded European ratings. This very same reaction (from both the public and institutional spheres) already occurred following the downgrade of Portugal’s rating, albeit to a lesser extent. It’s a bit of a joke that the corrupt and incompetent rating agencies are the most clear-sighted in this mad, debt-ridden world. We invite you to re-read that brief article from 16 December 2009 – it feels like it was only yesterday – and afterwards we’ll offer some reflections on the matter, some of which we already discussed in the second part of the article last summer. Reflections which, sadly, are just as relevant today as they were four years ago.  (more…)

The Eurobond has arrived and nobody knows how it happened (Part 2)

We had already warned of this in the first part of this article. It has been a masterstroke, not because it has outmanoeuvred Merkel and her reluctance to let the ECB assume the country risk of the periphery, but because it has squared the circle at a political and pseudo-economic level. It is called LTRO (Long-Term Refinancing Operations). This move is nothing other than the ECB opening the floodgates for European banks to borrow € (and $) without limit. But the secret of the potion lies in the repayment term, as the funds have been lent on demand, at a ridiculously low rate, but for a whopping three years. That is the key. And consequently, a second round has been announced for February this year, for those who were too slow off the mark to catch the first train to the paradise of infinite and cheap liquidity. (more…)

Corralito 2.0

Just a few days before it was announced the news In the wake of Argentinian president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's cancer, a new "corralito" is sweeping the South American country. Illegal outflows of US dollars from Argentina have been a constant in 2011, reaching 20-year highs. According to the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), this year will end with approximately 24 billion dollars in outflows. The volume is also increasing every quarter, which is why the government of Kirchner's widow has taken certain measures that are reminiscent of the corralito that occurred a decade ago. (more…)

What to do with the lottery jackpot. Will I be able to hold on to my fortune?

«Lottery, inheritance, fortune, wealth, management, advice, investment, money, money, money… These are coveted words that can turn into real nightmares. The million-dollar question – the one that’s vital for a new lottery winner – is: »What should I do with the prize and with my life?’” That’s how it began one of the many articles which we have published on the management of windfalls, whether they be inheritances, lottery winnings or various other windfalls. On the day of the Christmas lottery draw, I mustn’t forget to mention the all-too-easy self-deception to which RTVE invites us.

The public broadcaster’s website invites us to take part in a rather dangerous bit of fun. As you’ll see in sifueramillonario.rtve.es, any dreamer who wants to visualise the far-fetched growth of their lottery windfall over time can have a play with this app. But you’d be better off not giving any credence to the conclusions calculated by this website, because managing a fortune or wealth goes infinitely beyond the handful of simple and unrealistic calculations used by that site, which will no doubt be receiving tens or hundreds of thousands of visits these days. Let’s see why. (more…)

The Flight to Quality in Solvency

We have already pointed this out in previous articles this year's , by all means y passively, and also in 2010, Solvency – that precious and increasingly scarce treasure that will preserve our wealth over time – has deserted the fixed-income markets of developed countries and companies. The big question is: if we can no longer trust the creditworthiness of European bonds or of companies on this side of the globe with debts as colossal as those of the very states to which they belong, then where on earth has creditworthiness gone? (more…)

Some central banks are preparing for an exit from the euro.

«Some central banks in Europe are beginning to assess contingency plans for the possibility that some countries may leave the euro area or that the monetary union may collapse completely».» This is the headline of the article published today in Expansión, which translates the original published By David Enrich, Deborah Ball, Alistair MacDonald and Francesco Guerrera on the front page of the Wall Street Journal online. Here is the full text, because it is not to be missed, in this countdown to the re-founding or collapse of the Eurozone. And don't miss the commentary and the graph we have added at the end of the article: (more…)

‘Made in the USA’ employment and the root cause of species collapse.

Whilst we Europeans eagerly await 9 or 12 December to see the outcome of what appears to be brewing in Chef Merkozy’s secret kitchens, the latest unemployment figures have been published in the US. Now that the technical recession has, at least officially, been left behind, US unemployment appears to be trending more clearly downwards. The following chart from Chartoftheday.com It’s quite simple and speaks for itself. Although the fall in US unemployment is not happening at the same pace as in previous recessions, there’s no denying that it is happening. (more…)

Panic, Mr Market and the Value of Business.

Some predict that this is a crucial week for the future of the Eurozone. These are the days when it will be decided how and in what way the EFSF, which in turn must put out the fires in a periphery that is absolutely ablaze and spreading. Furthermore, and linked to this quest to square the circle, it seems that the Greek default is set to be quantified, at least this first one. (more…)

La Caixa and the State as examples of desperation.

I know this isn’t exactly news, but I simply cannot resist publicly denouncing a particular advert that has been flooding the media of late, and which I find particularly sickening, reprehensible, immoral, dangerous, vile, despicable—and who knows how many more adjectives I could come up with. It is not just misleading advertising, like so many others, but this one also distorts the harsh reality and misleads savers on a subject as sensitive and sacred as their families’ money. (more…)

You can’t see the wood for the trees

‘Preserving in turbulent times’ is not the title of this summer’s soap opera, but rather the pressing need for all those who manage their own wealth. It is also one of the guiding principles for some wealth managers working on behalf of others, though unfortunately the latter tend to be more concerned with retaining their long-suffering clients commercially by reducing their volatility, rather than preserving their assets and ensuring their sound long-term growth. Unfortunately, many managers of other people’s money are more interested in today’s bread (their own) and, in their short-sightedness, ignore tomorrow’s hunger (that of their clients and also their own). This brings us back to the old debate as to whether one should only entrust one’s money to advisers who have built up their own wealth and who co-invest with their clients, or whether any independent broker with sufficient technical training would suffice. But that is a discussion worthy of another article. (more…)

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