Estrategia - Cluster Family Office

Winter is coming...

This is the famous recurring phrase that most of us have heard throughout all the seasons of the hit series «Game of Thrones».

It is always pronounced as a reminder of the hard times the protagonists are going to face, but also as an irrefutable argument for taking measures, which are no less drastic than necessary, in the face of the darkness, severe cold and shortages that are already looming.

Well, we would say that winter is also coming for the financial system.

All that is missing is a catalyst to unleash the tremendous consequences of the distortions to which central banks have subjected their balance sheets and markets. (more…)

The two-speed EU is here.

To put us in perspective, it is worth re-reading the article entitled «The secret Franco-German Super-State project«, in which we highlight the radical change of plans that the leaders at the heart of the Union (sic) have planned for those states that cannot keep up with the economic pace of the more advanced EU countries (read periphery and centre). You can also read the devastating document This was the original text drafted by the French and German foreign ministers last June, in reaction to Brexit, which was leaked very discreetly to some second-tier media outlets. (more…)

Selective debt writedown.

A few months ago we wrote an article entitled «The Big Writedown« in which we warned of the possibility that the impasse of massive debt in which the whole world is mired could be circumvented in an imaginative way.

This formula is none other than the selective elimination of debt issues that are almost entirely in the hands of the respective central banks.

In this way, the loss that any default entails would be accounted for on the only balance sheets in the world that can be squared by making money out of thin air and moulded like chewing gum, namely the balance sheets of central banks.

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Negative interests and Darwin.

The essence of our economic and market system is efficiency and competitiveness driven by profit. It seems a somewhat convoluted phrase, but it assumes that the System is based on concepts as logical and simple as the fact that all the agents that make up the Market and the global Economy want to make money. For this obvious - and at the same time necessary - reason, we try to progress in our jobs, either as employees or as entrepreneurs. We all want to achieve greater well-being, and to do so, we need to progress and our work must be not only well done, but better done than that of our competitors. This is the only way to improve our salary or our company profits, and thus also our ability to enjoy that money, i.e. our present and future well-being.
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Deutsche Bank: The Big Short.

Edward Misrahi, manager of Ronit Capital, ex-partner at Goldman Sachs and Eton Park, recently stated in an interview with Businessinsider.com that his number 1 choice to hedge a portfolio against a generalised fall in the markets would be Deutsche Bank shares. He warns that any European bank has a very uncertain outlook, whether it is Portuguese, Italian or British, affected by Brexit. But his preferred insurance policy in the event of a tail-risk would be to sell the shares of this German bank, for which he predicts a forthcoming nationalisation as the only way out to avoid a general banking collapse. (more…)

The secret project of the Franco-German Superstate.

The foreign ministers of France (Jean-Marc Ayrault) and Germany (Frank-Walter Steinmeier) have bilaterally agreed on a series of proposals that radically contradict the model of the European Union that Euro-bureaucrats have been selling us for decades. The million-dollar question is to whom they are proposing this new Europe, and whether this declaration of intent is just that or rather a full-blown announcement of the new path that the hard core of European countries, starting with the Franco-German axis and adding Benelux and Italy (more for its founding history than its current economic state, obviously), will embark on. (more…)

It is urgent to wait... and to know what to expect.

In today's financial and economic times, as an old friend often says, it is urgent to wait. This is not a time for long-term investment ventures that are susceptible to macroeconomic changes or geopolitical conflicts, which are more uncertain than ever. The steps that investors must take in such a muddy environment must be short, stable and prudent. It is more true than ever that the concept of crisis is synonymous with opportunity, but this does not mean that we should not take ambitious and adventurous steps when a mine-ridden swamp surrounds us. (more…)

The global debt distortion.

Diversos analistas de medios como por ejemplo el WSJ o BusinessInsider, revelan que está ocurriendo algo inusual en los tipos de interés norteamericanos, aunque la verdad sea dicha, motivos para que el Sistema financiero se comporte de modo extraño y jamás visto no faltan, desde luego. Para ponernos en situación, cabe recordar que cuando una economía -como le está sucediendo ahora mismo a la norteamericana- consigue unas cifras próximas al pleno empleo y una inflación cercana al codiciado 2%, su curva de tipos se acentúa. Esa es una consecuencia lógica de la mejora de las perspectivas económicas, ya que en un escenario donde empiezan a surgir cantidad de buenas oportunidades de negocio, es normal que los inversores exijan mayor rendimiento a cambio de bloquear su dinero a largo plazo, y menor renta a vencimientos cortos. La consecuencia gráfica es una mayor pendiente en la curva de tipos de esa moneda, como se ha visto en infinidad de ocasiones a lo largo de la historia. (more…)

Bill Gross, a slap in the face of realism.

Bill Gross, former star manager of PIMCO and now of JANUS, is the voice of experience in the debt markets. It is true that his published views have not always been right, but perhaps his unpublished reflections have been mostly right. In fact, for us, Gross has been a great communicator of self-interested views. That is to say that at any given moment it has suited him that the markets/investors/clients have reacted to his published opinions in a certain way. Let us not forget that Gross is a veteran and influential voice like few others. (more…)

China and the Pearl River Delta (PRD).

The Pearl River Delta, also known by its acronym PRD, is a powerful economic zone in southern China. Its main cities are 11: nine of them belong to Guangdong province and account for 54% of its entire population (which is 106 million); and the other two cities are Macau and Hong Kong, which, although not technically part of the Mainland, are also the economic powerhouse of the PRD and provide the area with its specific political and administrative status. In total this zone accounts for no less than 26.2% of China's exports, 9.1% of GDP and «only» 4.2% of the population.

This area is approximately 40,000 km2 in size, about the size of Switzerland, but with a population of about 60 million, the size of the whole of the United Kingdom. The area will soon become a fully-fledged urban mega-metropolitan area, with economic growth exceeding 8% per year in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen. A true economic hub for China, whose planned market economy clearly goes far beyond the Yangtze River Delta hub (Shanghai) or the Tianjin area hub (Beijing). (more…)

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Category: Estrategia

Winter is coming...

The two-speed EU is here.

Selective debt writedown.

Negative interests and Darwin.

Deutsche Bank: The Big Short.

The secret project of the Franco-German Superstate.

It is urgent to wait... and to know what to expect.

The global debt distortion.

Bill Gross, a slap in the face of realism.

China and the Pearl River Delta (PRD).

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(+34) 93 626 47 75

(+34) 91 794 19 82