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Category: Multi family Office

The US law that will prioritise the Client's interest

Putting their clients' interests first. Something so obvious but at the same time so difficult to find among financial advisors and bankers is what a new law promoted by the US Department of Labor is going to regulate, for the time being only advisors who specifically recommend investments for their clients' old age (retirement investments and 401k). Perhaps in time this law will also be extended to all other non-specific advice for old age or retirement, although it seems unlikely that one day we will see something similar for all other advisors/bankers/real estate salesmen, home insurance, etc. (more…)

Fixed income: The bubble of the perfect storm

Las políticas de tipos cero que se han venido sosteniendo desde los Bancos Centrales del mundo más desarrollado para evitar el colapso de la deuda, han distorsionado por completo el sistema financiero. Los efectos colaterales de regalar el precio del dinero y la barra libre para evitar que los hiperendeudados (todo el mundo desarrollado) quiebren, son letales para los que deben generar rentas. Es un escenario amable con los insolventes pero muy hostil para los inversores, que se ven abocados a prestar su dinero a cambio de míseros rendimientos ofrecidos por emisores cada vez más peligrosos e insolventes.

A medida en que el dinero de los inversores se desplaza hacia la deuda más insolvente buscando desesperadamente unos puntos de rendimiento, la burbuja en los precios de toda la deuda, tanto desarrollada como emergente y en toda su curva, se hincha más y más. Los emisores más solventes o con bancos centrales dispuestos a comprarlo todo, tienen buena parte de sus curvas de tipos ya en negativo, o sea que los inversores deben pagar por prestarles su dinero. De igual modo los emisores menos solventes viven en una nube de liquidez que les permite endeudarse más y más pagando tipos como si fuesen grandes nombres multinacionales solventes. (more…)

Banco Madrid or the reckless corralito

Banco Madrid is the first bank that the state and its regulators have let fall in this galloping debt crisis. In fact, technically speaking, it has not been allowed to fall, i.e. it has not fallen due to the absence of a bailout with state funds, as other insolvent institutions have been rescued in recent years, but rather, forceful measures have been taken to liquidate it due to its -still- alleged money laundering. What is paradoxical is therefore that the reason for the intervention and the swift liquidation of the institution is not, at least originally, due to the feared insolvency but to criminal practices of great significance.

However, there is no shortage of conjecture pointing to other motivations of a less financial or political nature, as suggested by this article from ElConfidencial,this one from lasfinanzascambian.com or such an authoritative voice as Javier Cremades, chairman of Cremades & Calvo-Sotelo and president of the International Financial Litigation Network (IFLN) in this devastating article. In fact, it is strange, to say the least, that the report of the Sepblac to remain in Minister De Guindos' drawer The report had already warned of indications of various laundering offences before the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, which had not been processed until the USA demanded that action be taken. We are not therefore dealing with crimes or malpractice that have gone unnoticed until today, but rather with suspicions and indications that the competent bodies detected as early as June last year, but which they surprisingly ignored until the US financial police have come forward. (more…)

Why does every investor need an EAFI or a Family Office?

Perhaps for those of us who are professionally engaged in it, the answer may seem obvious. Especially for those of us who have suffered for decades in our own flesh the miseries and shortcomings of private banking. It is no coincidence that, in addition to being advisors, we were, are and will continue to be essentially investors, and as such, our interests are still, unfortunately, at the antipodes of those of the banks and their misnamed advice. Having said that, let us now analyse the transcendental decisions that every investor should take to advise on the correct management of their assets.

To begin with, the ordinary investor should analyse his or her asset situation and determine whether, in addition to purely financial advice, he or she also needs tax, legal, commercial, corporate or real estate advice. In other words, they may need to put their companies/businesses in order, their real estate investments or divestments, the administration of these properties, inheritance and family matters, their investments in the stock market and in unlisted companies, the generation of the necessary income for their family or projects, optimising the taxation of all of this, etc. (more…)

It's not for not collecting, it's for not accounting.

With central banks and their QE, the debt situation in the developed world has reached a surrealistic level worthy of study. Not only because of the unprecedented size of the balance sheets of the FED, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB, etc., but above all because of the manipulation of accounts, which has become a macabre and dangerous norm.

Thus, the manifest insolvency of the southern states of the Eurozone is the gigantic elephant in the room of the Troika (now renamed «the 3 institutions»: EU, ECB and IMF) that all these creditors ignore without the slightest blush. The most surreal case is that of Greece, which with Syriza at the head of its government is causing panic among its European partners. And this panic is not caused by the Greek state's inability to repay its massive debt - they have known that for years - but by the new government's willingness to publicly and openly acknowledge its insolvency.. Why? Simply because recognising that Greece will never be able to pay means having to write off losses on its creditors' balance sheets. And that really panics them, since neither the European banks nor the indebtedness and budget deficits of the other Eurozone countries are in such a state that they can count not a single euro of additional losses at the moment. (more…)

The side effects of Central Banks are already here.

various-central-banks

It was to be expected that central bank intervention would not be innocuous. We warned a little more than a year ago and its effects are already blowing up in some people's faces. If to this massive intervention never seen before we add a couple of other ingredients (Madonna, Madonna, just a couple...) such as OPEC's plot to push down the price of oil, the conflict in Ukraine or the radicalisation of the alleged Islamic State in the Middle East (which affects even Paris itself), the amplification of the side effects of central bank intervention can and will be uncontrollable.

Today we are already witnessing brutal price movements, which do not correspond at all to a healthy financial system, nor to corrections or adjustments of excesses, but rather to the delusions of a system that has been in place for years. frankeinsteinian capable of anything. Let us look at some very significant examples in recent weeks which, however, have paradoxically had rather localised devastating effects until today: (more…)

Have you won the lottery jackpot? The first 5 decisions you need to make.

Most lucky lottery winners end up losing their entire fortune within a few years. This is a quasi-universal law that affects the vast majority of lottery winners, as bad decisions start as early as the first minute after the draw. Let's see how bad decisions can be avoided in the first days or weeks after being chosen by the goddess Fortune. We will summarise them in 5 essential decisions and present them to you in the usual chronological order in which they should be taken.

The first The golden rule would be maximum discretion. The fewer people who know that we have won the jackpot or any other lottery, euromillions, etc., the better, much better. Not only for security reasons, but also to avoid, as far as possible, becoming a tempting lure for fraudsters, tricksters and unscrupulous and unscrupulous investment hunters. And bankers should also be included in this bag, as they will immediately be on the lookout for their prey as soon as they smell the blood of the nouveau riche and its irresistible liquidity. However, some bankers will have to be told, since the winning tenth or tenths must be deposited in a bank for collection and the corresponding 20% withholding, in other words, the first tax bite from the State. But be careful, (more…)

Generating income in a scenario of expensive bonds and rising rates.

Generating income when rates can only go up, and doing so in an environment of recession or anaemic growth, is at best a pipe dream. The fact is that there comes a point at which trying to scrape a tenth of a yield by adding risk (and we are not talking about mere volatility but the dreaded insolvency) is not only reckless but also increasingly difficult to achieve. A few examples to illustrate this point: The Spanish 10-year sovereign bond, with government indebtedness of 100% of GDP and its persistent public deficit of -7%, offers an incredible yield of 1.96% per annum. Or the high yield corporate debt of companies in the developed world, as over-indebted as the countries, with yields that are less and less «high» and which will be mercilessly crushed by the rise in interest rates. And what can we say about Greece itself, the paradigm of insolvency and the impossible rescue by states also in need of a bailout, offering a ridiculous 7.79% for 10 years. In other words, the investor receives 7.79 per annum in exchange for Greece being able to pay back its euros intact in 2024... Insane. The sovereign debt that many investors have in their portfolios (ignoring the fact that there is life beyond traditional listed fixed income), which has risen as much as the Spanish risk premium has fallen in the last two years, reminds me a lot of the turkey sentiment before Christmas... (more…)

El timo de los fondos perfilados

Esta es la última moda en las técnicas de abuso comisionista de la banca, y parece que llegó hace unos meses para quedarse entre los inversores más cándidos. Los fondos perfilados en definitiva son fondos de fondos cuyo criterio de selección es mantener una combinación de aproximadamente media docena de fondos que en su conjunto se adecuen al perfil inversor tipo: Agresivo, moderado, dinámico, conservador, etc. O sea, que en lugar de que el asesor de la entidad bancaria de turno recomiende a sus Clientes tener en cartera 4, 6 u 8 fondos determinados, sustituyendo unos por otros cuando lo considere necesario, le va a proponer comprar sólo uno, el perfilado. Y serán los gestores de éste quienes compran y vendan los que quieran en cada momento, sin que el inversor ni se entere. (more…)

When bets pay better than investments... (temporarily)

Every day we see examples of exultant bettors who think they are seasoned investors, just because their bets have been winning for a few months, even a few years. They confuse investment criteria with the criterion of the winning bet. And they believe that making money in the short term on the stock market or in government bonds is synonymous with being a good investor. I regret to tell them that nothing could be further from the truth.

The fall will be hard, very hard. With permanent losses, meaning that they will not be able to recover until decades from now, when inflation has eaten away the lost value and therefore they will settle for a false recovery. But there are the bettors, buying Spanish bonds more expensive than the very same Norwegian bonds (you can see a quick and illustrative comparison of the fundamentals in this Gurusblog article); American stock markets trading at more than 20 times earnings, or the brand new holders of subordinated debt or mortgage bonds of pseudo-rescued banks on the brink of disaster. It seems that for these gamblers anything goes as long as the result is positive. It doesn't matter that they are buying assets at prices that only the aberrant manipulation of central banks can generate. It doesn't matter how far their price is from the real intrinsic value of the asset, be it profits and annual business growth in the case of the stock market, or the macroeconomic fundamentals of the state in the case of sovereign bonds. All for the sake of the winning bet. (more…)

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