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Category: Multi family Office

It is not a quarter or a year. It is an entire Investment Life.

Investment gurus such as Warren Buffett have it ingrained in their very DNA: Investing is like playing any sport whilst focusing on the game itself, whereas doing so whilst focusing on the score is pure speculation. The matches, the championships and the well-deserved glory go to those who focus on the pitch – on constantly improving their strategy and competitive skills when selecting companies in which to invest – rather than on the absurd speculation of managing a digit displayed on a neon sign, which, incidentally, is as volatile as our own incompetence.

Buffet – like the rest of the world’s top multimillionaire investment gurus – never tires of repeating this over and over again, in every possible way, as in his latest annual letter, where he also discusses the few property investments he has made throughout his life. Well, few, that is, if we do not take into account that every investor, when buying shares in a company, is at the same time acquiring a proportionate share of the property assets that the company owns, of course. (more…)

Beware of Developed Markets

The party continues. Following the rallies on the American and European stock markets – particularly the Spanish one – it seems that most investors are set to stumble over the same old stumbling block once again. When? It’s impossible to say for certain, but what is certain is that the stumbling block is there and investors, giddy from such a rally, are running about like headless chickens. And what is this stumbling block that so many are set to trip over? Well, logically, it’s the valuations in developed stock markets, which are by no means cheap any longer – not to mention that they’re already starting to look expensive. Especially when we bear in mind that corporate profits are at record highs and interest rates at record lows, which inevitably brings us closer to the end of this cycle and the start of the next.

We must also distinguish between the developed European and American stock markets: the European market is facing persistent deflation, which may well continue if the ECB is forced to take extraordinary measures similar to those taken by the Fed in recent quarters. But with the spectre of solvency crises and recession looming over the periphery, this will not bode well for its stock markets. It is true that the German stock market is trading at more reasonable prices than the Spanish one, but despite its efforts to shield itself, we must not forget that we are still all in the same boat – Central Europeans, Northern Europeans and the southern periphery. And that could be a source of contagion for turmoil on European stock markets, although, logically, those in the south will bear the brunt of it, as they are at the epicentre of the financial problems and are therefore trading at levels equivalent to almost 20 years’ worth of profits. (more…)

A one-off wealth levy.

It has been almost a year since we had already warned that the council of German experts advising Chancellor Merkel recommended that the leaders of southern Europe confiscate a portion of the value of property from owners in the EU’s periphery in order to prevent the collapse of the peripheral financial system. At that time, this body – known as the «five wise men» – argued that whenever a bailout of banks or southern European states was necessary, it should be carried out internally (a «bail-in»), that is, using money from the citizens themselves living in the countries in distress. And that confiscating a proportion of the value of property was the easiest, most practical and simplest way to obtain the money needed to prevent the collapse of peripheral states and the financial system. This was because doing it the Cypriot way – by confiscating a portion of bank accounts – caused greater public alarm, and it was also easier for ‘the targets’ to avoid confiscation by transferring the money out of the country (as the better-advised Cypriots did). Property, on the other hand, is tied up; it cannot be transferred overnight to Luxembourg, Switzerland or Germany, and at the same time it is viewed more favourably to steal to confiscate property from property owners – who are presumed to have greater wealth – rather than from savers or investors who live in rented accommodation. (more…)

If you win the Christmas Lottery jackpot…

We are living in times when millions of people dream of the possibility that the Christmas Lottery will make them rich. The common belief is that once this miracle has happened, their problems will disappear forever, and happiness will be the norm for the rest of their lives. But everything will depend on the attitude and decisions of the winners from the moment the Children of San Ildefonso call out their numbers. It is not so much about the amount of money the prize represents, but rather the way in which they decide to manage that sudden wealth.

It is now five years since we published an article entitled «Jurassic Park«, also at this time of year, that «the coexistence of a limited capacity to generate wealth and a sudden fortune will, in almost all cases, be an unnatural union that will seek to restore its balance». In other words, the union of a windfall of money with people who have not been able to generate it through their own efforts tends, unfortunately, to last only a few years.

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Financial Repression: A lifeline for debtors and a death sentence for investors.

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Many people will already be familiar with the term ‘financial repression’, but for most it will still be something unfamiliar – just another technical term in these times when we have learnt to talk quite naturally about subprime mortgages, deleveraging, the ‘new normal’ or the now overused term ‘stagflation’. The scenario in which we find ourselves – and in which we will continue to operate over the coming years – is one of ‘financial repression’. And this has been agreed upon by those who once dominated the economy but are now desperately trying not to drown in their own vomit – that is to say, their almost infinite debt: Europe, the USA and Japan. (more…)

What is an Outpost Family Office?

The concept is new and meets a logical and increasingly common need in a globalised world. It is common knowledge that Family Offices are companies or groups of professionals that are essentially dedicated to the management and control of the assets of one or several families, as well as to attending to all aspects that may affect these family groups, such as taxation, legal advice or assistance in family logistics and concierge services (concierging), among others. But the new figure that has appeared for the users of a Family Office (whether they are Clients of a Multi-Family Office, or owners of a Single-Family Office), is that of the Outpost FO, or global support network for a Family Office.  (more…)

How does the machinery of the economy work? Video by Ray Dalio

Here’s the 30-minute video by global macro management guru Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) has been created to explain, in a very clear and educational way, not only the economic dynamics that have led us to the current situation, but, more importantly, the roadmap for emerging from the great recession through a “graceful deleveraging”.

The video is in English (I haven’t managed to find it in Spanish or with subtitles yet) and is accompanied by some very pleasant and illustrative animations. Furthermore, its unhurried pace makes it easy to understand all the concepts explained in it. It is probably a suitable response or a different take on the famous video “Money as Debt“, which went viral a while ago. Hope you enjoy it: (more…)

The Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the RMB as a global reserve currency.

China’s new financial experiment covers an area of 29 km²: Shanghai FTZ. A «free trade zone» in which the Communist Party’s economic restrictions are lifted as if by a stroke of political policy. In this financial centre, international investors will be exempt from the investment restrictions that apply elsewhere in China. And, note this: in this artificial oasis, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB), will be freely traded, as will its interest rates!

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First Cyprus, now Poland, tomorrow…

I get the feeling that, despite having has been published at various media, has gone largely unnoticed by investors in general. But last week, it was quietly announced that no less than half of all Poles’ private pension schemes were to be confiscated. That’s right: a lifetime’s savings, set aside to provide for their needs in old age, have been halved overnight.  (more…)

Recovery and stability are here... eppur si muove!

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It appears that August 2013 is marking the start of the Eurozone’s economic recovery. Peripheral risk premiums are shrinking like raisins, whilst the price of German government bonds is falling (yields rising), mirroring US Treasury bonds. The political class and the establishment The Western media are hailing it as such, whilst keeping their fingers crossed that the prophecy will become a self-fulfilling one.

However, mathematics is stubborn. And so is economics. Despite the faith and the malicious or ignorant opinions of politicians and analysts, as Galileo said: e pur si muove. In other words, Spain’s deficit, its economic recession and its unpayable debt reveal the harsh reality: we are far, very far from achieving growth and regaining solvency. That is why reductions in the risk premium are nothing more than mirages in a desert of recession and deleveraging that we have barely begun to navigate. A temporary and unjustified improvement that is the result of political propaganda and the well-known inefficiency of the markets.  (more…)

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