gestion financiera - Cluster Family Office

The global debt distortion.

Diversos analistas de medios como por ejemplo el WSJ o BusinessInsider, revelan que está ocurriendo algo inusual en los tipos de interés norteamericanos, aunque la verdad sea dicha, motivos para que el Sistema financiero se comporte de modo extraño y jamás visto no faltan, desde luego. Para ponernos en situación, cabe recordar que cuando una economía -como le está sucediendo ahora mismo a la norteamericana- consigue unas cifras próximas al pleno empleo y una inflación cercana al codiciado 2%, su curva de tipos se acentúa. Esa es una consecuencia lógica de la mejora de las perspectivas económicas, ya que en un escenario donde empiezan a surgir cantidad de buenas oportunidades de negocio, es normal que los inversores exijan mayor rendimiento a cambio de bloquear su dinero a largo plazo, y menor renta a vencimientos cortos. La consecuencia gráfica es una mayor pendiente en la curva de tipos de esa moneda, como se ha visto en infinidad de ocasiones a lo largo de la historia. (more…)

Bill Gross, a slap in the face of realism.

Bill Gross, former star manager of PIMCO and now of JANUS, is the voice of experience in the debt markets. It is true that his published views have not always been right, but perhaps his unpublished reflections have been mostly right. In fact, for us, Gross has been a great communicator of self-interested views. That is to say that at any given moment it has suited him that the markets/investors/clients have reacted to his published opinions in a certain way. Let us not forget that Gross is a veteran and influential voice like few others. (more…)

China and the Pearl River Delta (PRD).

The Pearl River Delta, also known by its acronym PRD, is a powerful economic zone in southern China. Its main cities are 11: nine of them belong to Guangdong province and account for 54% of its entire population (which is 106 million); and the other two cities are Macau and Hong Kong, which, although not technically part of the Mainland, are also the economic powerhouse of the PRD and provide the area with its specific political and administrative status. In total this zone accounts for no less than 26.2% of China's exports, 9.1% of GDP and «only» 4.2% of the population.

This area is approximately 40,000 km2 in size, about the size of Switzerland, but with a population of about 60 million, the size of the whole of the United Kingdom. The area will soon become a fully-fledged urban mega-metropolitan area, with economic growth exceeding 8% per year in cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen. A true economic hub for China, whose planned market economy clearly goes far beyond the Yangtze River Delta hub (Shanghai) or the Tianjin area hub (Beijing). (more…)

Rentiers, bondholders and other endangered species.

Resulta evidente que la ingente labor de los bancos centrales del mundo desarrollado está acabando con uno de los pilares del Sistema financiero hasta hoy conocido: La llamada genéricamente renta fija. Y no sólo los bonistas o rentistas van a sufrir pérdidas -o en el mejor de los casos ausencia de rentas- sino que junto con ellos hay un mundo de inversores institucionales que dependen también de retornos estables a largo plazo, como por ejemplo aseguradoras o fondos de pensiones públicos y privados. ¿Qué están haciendo estos inversores ante la ausencia de rentas y el oscuro horizonte de la renta fija? La respuesta es tan diversa como el perfil de los afectados. (more…)

El Silencio de los Conservadores.

Hace unos 4 años la situación de las economías europeas divergía tanto que los Mercados cotizaban defaults en casi toda la periferia. Las primas de riesgo arrojaban a media Europa en brazos de la insolvencia y Alemania le negaba a Draghi el permiso para inundar de billetes el sur del continente. La cuenta atrás para la ruptura de la UE estaba en marcha, y así lo advertimos entonces en Gurusblog. Sin embargo, contra todo pronóstico (al menos el nuestro), Draghi desoyó las consignas de Schäuble y comenzó a ampliar el balance del BCE como venía haciendo la FED desde 2008. Ese fue el inicio del rumbo a lo desconocido del colectivo de economías desarrolladas. (more…)

All bets are off.

The medium to long term horizon for investors is very dark. A report by McKinsey Global Institute (download here) hits the nail on the head in concluding that investment returns in general over the next two decades (at least) will be very low. Historically well below what the markets have offered over the last 30 years, and I would add, well below what has been achieved on average over the whole of the 20th century, Great Depression included. There are plenty of reasons for this if you open your eyes and look at the numbers. Let's see. (more…)

Renting or buying?

Many would do well to tinker again with the typical interactive pages, such as the one offered by the NYT («Is it better to rent or to buy».»), to try to find out whether it would be more interesting today to buy or rent a property. As you can see if you do this exercise, the key is in the variables of the evolution of the price and rent of real estate, but above all of the income that we are able to obtain from the money in the coming years. We can also fine-tune by introducing a multitude of variables such as inflation expectations, taxes on the purchase and sale of the property, maintenance and community expenses, real estate agent's commissions, etc. Logically, the structure of this interactive website is based on the costs and format of the North American Real Estate market, but you can adapt it approximately to our real estate market.

It is difficult to foresee where real estate prices will go in Spain 5 to 10 years down the road. But even more difficult to gauge is the inflation - or deflation - to which central banks will lead us in the medium to long term, even they have no idea. And to complicate matters further, we must be aware that, depending on inflation and the price of money, financial repression (the effects of which we explained in detail in 2013) will last, penalising rentiers and other investors, or will give way to an increase in investment returns in general. And as we said, this is perhaps the most important variable in the decision to rent or buy a property at the moment. But beware, because many poorly advised investors, faced with their inability to achieve financial returns, are throwing themselves into the arms of a real estate market that still has a downward path in the medium and long term, despite the much-vaunted rebound in the short term. Especially if the national economy remains in the ICU with a galloping deficit and growing debt. Because both evils are the enemies of sustainable economic growth and hinder job creation and wage increases, which are so necessary to turn around the current downward real estate cycle that began almost a decade ago. In this New Normal, reality is very stubborn and the future is even more uncertain.

The US law that will prioritise the Client's interest

Putting their clients' interests first. Something so obvious but at the same time so difficult to find among financial advisors and bankers is what a new law promoted by the US Department of Labor is going to regulate, for the time being only advisors who specifically recommend investments for their clients' old age (retirement investments and 401k). Perhaps in time this law will also be extended to all other non-specific advice for old age or retirement, although it seems unlikely that one day we will see something similar for all other advisors/bankers/real estate salesmen, home insurance, etc. (more…)

Fixed income: The bubble of the perfect storm

Las políticas de tipos cero que se han venido sosteniendo desde los Bancos Centrales del mundo más desarrollado para evitar el colapso de la deuda, han distorsionado por completo el sistema financiero. Los efectos colaterales de regalar el precio del dinero y la barra libre para evitar que los hiperendeudados (todo el mundo desarrollado) quiebren, son letales para los que deben generar rentas. Es un escenario amable con los insolventes pero muy hostil para los inversores, que se ven abocados a prestar su dinero a cambio de míseros rendimientos ofrecidos por emisores cada vez más peligrosos e insolventes.

A medida en que el dinero de los inversores se desplaza hacia la deuda más insolvente buscando desesperadamente unos puntos de rendimiento, la burbuja en los precios de toda la deuda, tanto desarrollada como emergente y en toda su curva, se hincha más y más. Los emisores más solventes o con bancos centrales dispuestos a comprarlo todo, tienen buena parte de sus curvas de tipos ya en negativo, o sea que los inversores deben pagar por prestarles su dinero. De igual modo los emisores menos solventes viven en una nube de liquidez que les permite endeudarse más y más pagando tipos como si fuesen grandes nombres multinacionales solventes. (more…)

Banco Madrid or the reckless corralito

Banco Madrid is the first bank that the state and its regulators have let fall in this galloping debt crisis. In fact, technically speaking, it has not been allowed to fall, i.e. it has not fallen due to the absence of a bailout with state funds, as other insolvent institutions have been rescued in recent years, but rather, forceful measures have been taken to liquidate it due to its -still- alleged money laundering. What is paradoxical is therefore that the reason for the intervention and the swift liquidation of the institution is not, at least originally, due to the feared insolvency but to criminal practices of great significance.

However, there is no shortage of conjecture pointing to other motivations of a less financial or political nature, as suggested by this article from ElConfidencial,this one from lasfinanzascambian.com or such an authoritative voice as Javier Cremades, chairman of Cremades & Calvo-Sotelo and president of the International Financial Litigation Network (IFLN) in this devastating article. In fact, it is strange, to say the least, that the report of the Sepblac to remain in Minister De Guindos' drawer The report had already warned of indications of various laundering offences before the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, which had not been processed until the USA demanded that action be taken. We are not therefore dealing with crimes or malpractice that have gone unnoticed until today, but rather with suspicions and indications that the competent bodies detected as early as June last year, but which they surprisingly ignored until the US financial police have come forward. (more…)

(+34) 93 626 47 75

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Category: gestion financiera

The global debt distortion.

Bill Gross, a slap in the face of realism.

China and the Pearl River Delta (PRD).

Rentiers, bondholders and other endangered species.

El Silencio de los Conservadores.

All bets are off.

Renting or buying?

The US law that will prioritise the Client's interest

Fixed income: The bubble of the perfect storm

Banco Madrid or the reckless corralito

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(+34) 93 626 47 75

(+34) 91 794 19 82