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Category: Actualidad

The side effects of Central Banks are already here.

various-central-banks

It was to be expected that central bank intervention would not be innocuous. We warned a little more than a year ago and its effects are already blowing up in some people's faces. If to this massive intervention never seen before we add a couple of other ingredients (Madonna, Madonna, just a couple...) such as OPEC's plot to push down the price of oil, the conflict in Ukraine or the radicalisation of the alleged Islamic State in the Middle East (which affects even Paris itself), the amplification of the side effects of central bank intervention can and will be uncontrollable.

Today we are already witnessing brutal price movements, which do not correspond at all to a healthy financial system, nor to corrections or adjustments of excesses, but rather to the delusions of a system that has been in place for years. frankeinsteinian capable of anything. Let us look at some very significant examples in recent weeks which, however, have paradoxically had rather localised devastating effects until today: (more…)

Have you won the lottery jackpot? The first 5 decisions you need to make.

Most lucky lottery winners end up losing their entire fortune within a few years. This is a quasi-universal law that affects the vast majority of lottery winners, as bad decisions start as early as the first minute after the draw. Let's see how bad decisions can be avoided in the first days or weeks after being chosen by the goddess Fortune. We will summarise them in 5 essential decisions and present them to you in the usual chronological order in which they should be taken.

The first The golden rule would be maximum discretion. The fewer people who know that we have won the jackpot or any other lottery, euromillions, etc., the better, much better. Not only for security reasons, but also to avoid, as far as possible, becoming a tempting lure for fraudsters, tricksters and unscrupulous and unscrupulous investment hunters. And bankers should also be included in this bag, as they will immediately be on the lookout for their prey as soon as they smell the blood of the nouveau riche and its irresistible liquidity. However, some bankers will have to be told, since the winning tenth or tenths must be deposited in a bank for collection and the corresponding 20% withholding, in other words, the first tax bite from the State. But be careful, (more…)

The 'tailored fund' scam

Esta es la última moda en las técnicas de abuso comisionista de la banca, y parece que llegó hace unos meses para quedarse entre los inversores más cándidos. Los fondos perfilados en definitiva son fondos de fondos cuyo criterio de selección es mantener una combinación de aproximadamente media docena de fondos que en su conjunto se adecuen al perfil inversor tipo: Agresivo, moderado, dinámico, conservador, etc. O sea, que en lugar de que el asesor de la entidad bancaria de turno recomiende a sus Clientes tener en cartera 4, 6 u 8 fondos determinados, sustituyendo unos por otros cuando lo considere necesario, le va a proponer comprar sólo uno, el perfilado. Y serán los gestores de éste quienes compran y vendan los que quieran en cada momento, sin que el inversor ni se entere. (more…)

Fixed Income 2.0

Traditional fixed-income investments, in the form of bonds issued by governments and companies, are going through a very difficult period. Excessive borrowing by developed countries – and increasingly by emerging economies too – combined with central banks printing money at unprecedented levels, is making fixed-income investments generally less and less reliable. If we create money out of thin air without anchoring it to anything, debt becomes mere digits whose solvency is increasingly called into question, as income and the ability to generate cash flows to repay it become increasingly paltry compared to the amount owed. And this applies to both companies and governments in so-called developed countries.

If we also add to this a policy of interest rates at virtually zero that has been maintained for years, and central banks’ absurd asset repurchase schemes, the result is that even the most creditworthy (sic) debt – such as that of Germany or the United States – is subject to negative interest rates. Consequently, the debt of other countries – which are, paradoxically, heavily indebted – also enjoys minimal risk premiums; in other words, they pay an extraordinarily low cost for borrowing money. (more…)

Accounting traps to inflate GDP.

Accounting creativity« is nothing more than a euphemism for falsehood, for cheating in accounting so that it reflects a distorted reality, to suit the interests of those in power. And today those in power are an EU that at all costs needs to simulate solvency and growth in the countries of its periphery, so that investors do not flee those economies. If they did, there would not be enough money - or will - in northern Europe to avoid bankruptcy and the collapse of Eurozone unity.

It seems, therefore, that it is in nobody's interest that the reality of the economic miseries of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain... and some others such as France...) becomes evident and scares away national and international investors. That is why the ECB keeps the risk premium at floor level through all kinds of quantitative and pseudo-covert facilities to banks and states. It is also in charge of keeping alive the profits of banks that have their warehouses full of rotting real estate on the basis of free liquidity bars. And European and Spanish regulators look the other way when financial institutions value these properties above their market price on their balance sheets to avoid obvious bankruptcy. Anything goes to feign stability, for the good of all (sic). Accounting engineering or creativity« is also being used in Spain. when it comes to handling unemployment and other macro figures, on the demand of electoral needs and balancing with the impositions overseen by the Troika. (more…)

What is really happening in Iraq?

In recent days, the news has been reporting that the Iraqi government is fighting within its own borders against an enemy that espouses the bloodiest form of jihadism: The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In other words, the violent, radical shift of the Salafism which is backed by the Saudi government, a country which, for its part, advocates the most literal and puritanical interpretation of Islam. ISIL, which is gaining ground day by day in Iraq and is also fighting against Bashar al-Assad in Syria (hence the addition of the word «Levant» to its acronym), is so bloodthirsty that even its former ally, al-Qaeda, has ceased to support it, at least directly.

It would therefore be an oversimplification to draw a direct link between the Saudi Arabian government and the jihadism of ISIL, which is attempting to seize power across the whole of Iraq. But if we add to this equation the fact that, ethnically speaking, both the Saudi leaders and the ISIL militants are Sunnis, and have been long-standing enemies of the Shia community that has governed Iraq since the withdrawal of American troops, the pieces begin to fall into place a little more clearly. To put it very simply, the Shia people throughout the Middle East have long been the poor population living around the oil fields that are under Sunni control – that is, owned by the emirates and countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc. And in the face of the radicalisation of Sunni jihadists, the West is now inclined to support the Shia community, which governs Iraq. (more…)

How to invest when equities are highly variable and bonds are no longer fixed.

We are already seeing evidence of a new paradigm in the world of finance. The New Normal of which so much we have spoken at repeatedly It is here and it is here to stay. So we have a very uncertain outlook ahead of us. With an influence of central banks that has never been seen before and that distorts everything, but be careful: an intervention that tends to be reduced in the USA and increased in Europe.

Let's take it one step at a time. As far as equities are concerned, it should not escape anyone's notice that stock prices in the US and even in many Eurozone countries are expensive. It is true that the influence of exceptional measures by the respective central banks can keep company prices well above their fair value for a long time. And that this is a desire that every ruler usually embraces, as it improves, at least in appearance, the financial state of the population and its consequent consumption, optimism, voting, etc. But we should not forget that QE in the US is on its way to drying up and that rates are close to a rationalisation in the form of a rally. Therefore, the US stock market has anything but fundamental appeal. And the universal law of the market is implacable, so investments in expensive stocks relative to the fundamentals of these businesses will only lead to disappointment - permanent losses - in the medium to long term. (more…)

Peripheral bubble: The perfect storm.

Philippe Legrain is the author of several books, such as «Open World: The truth about globalisation«He has also been and is a very influential person in EU economic policy. Not for nothing has he been a senior advisor and head of the analyst team of the Bureau of European Policy Advisers for the President of the European Commission José Manuel Durao Barroso. And as such, has led the team that has directly advised the EU's strategic economic policy.

Well, from his privileged perspective, Legrain has recently published an article in the Financial Times entitled «.«Investors are ignoring eurozone risks«This is in line with our opinion, which we have reiterated in several articles about the mirage of bonanza that the markets are quoting with respect to the European peripheral economies: «...the European Union's peripheral economies are in a state of crisis.«Mátrix and the green shoots«, «The double standards of bubbles«and many others.

Below is a free translation and commentary of Legrain's article:

Peripheral bond yields are reaching bubble proportions. Markets awash with liquidity both camouflage and exacerbate long-term economic problems and insolvency. Investors and policymakers should have learned that lesson in the pre-crisis bubble years. Yet they have gone from hysterical panic to short-sighted complacency in less than two years. (more…)

The double standards of bubbles

We all shudder (or should shudder) when we contemplate the possibility that our money is invested in assets whose prices are at what is known as a «bubble», i.e. at levels far higher than their real intrinsic value, the result of unfounded speculation. Investing in bubbles is the mistake we all want to avoid at all costs, because if they burst, the losses will be irrecoverable or, at best, it will take decades to recover the value lost. Because, if the capacity of those assets to generate Value does not increase considerably, those prices at which we buy wildly will not occur again without the help of a new bubble on that same asset, which may never happen or take more years than our own investment life. Therefore, the losses we risk are permanent and not temporary. And the time it takes for our investments to recover from temporary price declines (which can occur in virtually any asset). is inversely proportional to the intrinsic value of those assets. Y is the big difference between investing well and investing badly.

(more…)

A one-off wealth levy.

It has been almost a year since we had already warned that the council of German experts advising Chancellor Merkel recommended that the leaders of southern Europe confiscate a portion of the value of property from owners in the EU’s periphery in order to prevent the collapse of the peripheral financial system. At that time, this body – known as the «five wise men» – argued that whenever a bailout of banks or southern European states was necessary, it should be carried out internally (a «bail-in»), that is, using money from the citizens themselves living in the countries in distress. And that confiscating a proportion of the value of property was the easiest, most practical and simplest way to obtain the money needed to prevent the collapse of peripheral states and the financial system. This was because doing it the Cypriot way – by confiscating a portion of bank accounts – caused greater public alarm, and it was also easier for ‘the targets’ to avoid confiscation by transferring the money out of the country (as the better-advised Cypriots did). Property, on the other hand, is tied up; it cannot be transferred overnight to Luxembourg, Switzerland or Germany, and at the same time it is viewed more favourably to steal to confiscate property from property owners – who are presumed to have greater wealth – rather than from savers or investors who live in rented accommodation. (more…)

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