In recent days, the news has been reporting that the Iraqi government is fighting within its own borders against an enemy that espouses the bloodiest form of jihadism: The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In other words, the violent, radical shift of the Salafism which is backed by the Saudi government, a country which, for its part, advocates the most literal and puritanical interpretation of Islam. ISIL, which is gaining ground day by day in Iraq and is also fighting against Bashar al-Assad in Syria (hence the addition of the word «Levant» to its acronym), is so bloodthirsty that even its former ally, al-Qaeda, has ceased to support it, at least directly.
It would therefore be an oversimplification to draw a direct link between the Saudi Arabian government and the jihadism of ISIL, which is attempting to seize power across the whole of Iraq. But if we add to this equation the fact that, ethnically speaking, both the Saudi leaders and the ISIL militants are Sunnis, and have been long-standing enemies of the Shia community that has governed Iraq since the withdrawal of American troops, the pieces begin to fall into place a little more clearly. To put it very simply, the Shia people throughout the Middle East have long been the poor population living around the oil fields that are under Sunni control – that is, owned by the emirates and countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc. And in the face of the radicalisation of Sunni jihadists, the West is now inclined to support the Shia community, which governs Iraq.
We are therefore facing a conflict in which the Shia must confront radicalised Sunnis who are seeking to take control of Iraq and Syria. The Shia have therefore risen up in their own jihad or religious conflict, against ISIL’s jihad. But the conflict is not confined to Iraq itself, as the clash between Sunnis and the ruling Shia in Syria is intensifying. Furthermore, Iran, with its brand-new moderate government, is becoming involved in the conflict by supporting the Iraqi Shia from the north-east.
We could say, even at the risk of oversimplifying, that the Sunnis are being supported and financed covertly by Saudi petrodollars and by Al-Qaeda – that is, by the enemies of moderate Islam. Meanwhile, other non-Islamist interests are using the Shia and offering them financial and military support to curb Sunni radicalism. And it is nothing short of paradoxical that the West regards the Shi’a, such as Khamenei – whose predecessor in the Iranian government was Ayatollah Khomeini himself – as representing moderate Islamism.
But who is providing sufficient support to the Shia if Obama himself has explicitly stated that he will not repeat the strategy employed by his predecessor, Bush? The EU neither knows how, nor wants to, nor is able to do anything, as it has its hands full simply keeping the Eurozone afloat and ensuring its gas supply amidst the conflict in Ukraine, which even today, there is still no final agreement. China has no particular strategic interest in the region, as it has recently secured its energy supply through Russian gas pipelines, which will directly fuel its capitalist economy for the next 30 years.
Who, then, might have an interest in seeing the conflict between Sunnis and Shias escalate and become entrenched, with no clear victor and involving major oil-producing countries such as Iraq and Iran for months or years on end? Who might stand to gain from oil prices skyrocketing and from the Saudi Sunnis failing to end up dominating those major oil-producing countries as well? Logically, another oil-producing country whose interests do not coincide at all with those of the Sunnis and their radical jihadist crusade. Can you guess? Indeed: Russia.
For once, and without this setting a precedent, Putin’s interests coincide with those of the West, at least as far as curbing Islamic terrorism and the spread of radical Sunni dominance in the Middle East are concerned. The fact that the price of crude oil is soaring as a result of this conflict is a «collateral effect» that clearly only harms the EU, since the US has already achieved energy self-sufficiency and is even considering liberalising oil exports. Therefore, Putin’s and Obama’s interests in this conflict are much closer aligned than they like to admit. The US will not become directly involved in the fighting (with troops), but will intervene indirectly and on an ad hoc basis. Meanwhile, Russia will provide (and is already providing), behind the scenes and on a permanent basis, weapons and resources to the Shia to counter the Sunnis. Let us not forget that it is the Saudi Sunnis who have been supporting Chechen separatism and its bloody attacks on Russian soil, and Putin therefore has a score to settle in this conflict.
The question is how Russia is supplying Iraqi Shia with heavy weapons and logistical support, because this task is already very complicated in itself, but almost impossible if it must also be carried out covertly and across at least three borders (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran…). This brings us to the key answer, which also sheds light on the recent Russian-Ukrainian conflict. And that is none other than the ease with which weapons can be shipped from Crimea (currently Russian territory) to the Syrian coast via the Bosphorus Strait, and from there, overland through a friendly Shia-led government – whilst also helping to keep the Sunnis in check there – straight to the Iraqi border. In other words, the annexation of Crimea allows Russia to supply weapons to the Shia from the west, right at the heart of the Syrian-Iraqi conflict. By sea and then over 400 km and a single border, without any international questions or explanations. Compare this with the pipe dream of travelling 800 km, entering via northern Iraq, with three borders to cross and an insurmountable diplomatic nightmare – had Crimea still been part of Ukraine.
The current conflict in Iraq therefore explains Russia’s eagerness to annex Crimea. With that access, it has taken just three months for the conflict between Shia and Sunni Muslims to flare up again. And it is driving up oil prices, just as Putin had anticipated and hoped, prioritising Russian interests above all else, as every dollar of the price increase goes straight into the profits of Russian oil companies, which have extremely low extraction costs. Furthermore, this conflict is holding back Sunni jihadist terrorism, which is dangerously advancing in Iraq and Syria through its so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
A curious alignment of the stars makes all this possible. Putin has the blessing off the record under Obama, since rising oil prices do not affect the US, and this time it is another power that is getting its hands dirty – that is, expending resources and efforts to curb radical Islamism in Iraq. On the face of it, everyone stands to benefit – everyone except the EU and Japan. But morally, too, Europe is obliged to support this struggle, given that it is putting a stop to jihadist terrorism, which is geographically very close to Turkey and the EU’s eastern border. Japan, on the other hand, could be the major victim from afar if oil prices soar; all it can do is pray to Saint Abenomics to get back on its feet financially. A word of warning.
In short, these are the reasons – which are not always obvious – that have led to this situation. And the most surprising thing is that Some people had already warned that exactly what is happening now might happen. Three months ago now, when Putin invaded Crimea, to the surprise and bewilderment of the majority who were looking for nationalist justifications, we published an analysis that I recommend you read again, especially the second half of the article, where he talks about the diabolical Machiavellianism by Putin. It’s surprising that these predictions are coming true exactly, step by step.
We’ll see how this conflict unfolds. For the moment, everything is going according to Putin’s plan: oil prices are rising in 3…2…1… (so far, they’ve only risen by 3% in recent days). And if this roadmap for the escalation of the Sunni-Shia conflict continues to unfold, despite the fact that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not yet stabilised, this other article will make more sense than ever: «From Russia with (More) Courage«, with a rate of The Russian stock market, which has already risen by +22%, has yet to factor in the potential rise in oil prices.