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Cluster Family Office Blog

If you win the Christmas Lottery jackpot…

We are living in times when millions of people dream of the possibility that the Christmas Lottery will make them rich. The common belief is that once this miracle has happened, their problems will disappear forever, and happiness will be the norm for the rest of their lives. But everything will depend on the attitude and decisions of the winners from the moment the Children of San Ildefonso call out their numbers. It is not so much about the amount of money the prize represents, but rather the way in which they decide to manage that sudden wealth.

It is now five years since we published an article entitled «Jurassic Park«, also at this time of year, that «the coexistence of a limited capacity to generate wealth and a sudden fortune will, in almost all cases, be an unnatural union that will seek to restore its balance». In other words, the union of a windfall of money with people who have not been able to generate it through their own efforts tends, unfortunately, to last only a few years.

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The Age of Central Banks

It seems that the pieces of the ‘New Normal’ jigsaw are starting to fall into place. But, as is to be expected given that this is a ‘New Normal’, the way these pieces fit together is currently far less stable and orderly than in the ‘Old Normal’. And what may seem today like a completed part of the jigsaw may, by tomorrow, once again prove to be a state of great uncertainty and chaos.

The key difference between this new era and the previous one is, of course, the size of the balance sheets of all the central banks in developed economies: the Fed, the BoE, the BoJ and, to a lesser extent so far, the ECB. The headlong rush that quantitative easing (QE) represents is driving up the market prices of virtually all assets and directly related markets. And this reality is as striking as it is fleeting, since the mass printing of money has as much influence on asset prices as it is unsustainable, given that the tap on QE will inevitably have to be turned off at some point in the not-too-distant future. (more…)

Financial Repression: A lifeline for debtors and a death sentence for investors.

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Many people will already be familiar with the term ‘financial repression’, but for most it will still be something unfamiliar – just another technical term in these times when we have learnt to talk quite naturally about subprime mortgages, deleveraging, the ‘new normal’ or the now overused term ‘stagflation’. The scenario in which we find ourselves – and in which we will continue to operate over the coming years – is one of ‘financial repression’. And this has been agreed upon by those who once dominated the economy but are now desperately trying not to drown in their own vomit – that is to say, their almost infinite debt: Europe, the USA and Japan. (more…)

La Caixa's pressures on its customers: shall we talk?

Today we’re bringing you a real-life case that has recently come to our attention, and which we wish to publicly denounce here. It is an example of the pressure that bank staff in general – and this branch manager at La Caixa in particular – exert on their customers in order to keep them with the bank at all costs. As you will see in this email sent by the director to her client, she uses scare tactics and manipulation to convince the investor that they are doing something completely mad, and in the process discredit none other than Bestinver’s pension schemes… Her email is probably the best example of the bank’s aggressive and unethical sales tactics. And this manager’s superiors would surely have no hesitation in congratulating her on her (dubious) sales tactics, designed to bolster the bank’s ailing balance sheets. This is no exception; unfortunately, this is how our banks operate, prioritising their commercial interests over the most basic ethical behaviour towards their customers, to whom – let us not forget – they are presumably accountable and to whom they are supposed to provide advice. (more…)

Spain, recovery or lies?

We cannot ignore articles such as the one just published by Roberto Centeno in ElConfidencial.com, Neither for its forcefulness nor for its coincidence with many of the arguments that we have been giving since Cluster Family Office. Before going into the details, it is worth remembering that Centeno was CEO of companies such as Butano, Enagas, Campsa and is currently Chairman of Eneroil. He also holds a PhD in Economics from the Complutense University of Madrid and is Professor of Economics at the School of Mining Engineering of the UPM.

Although we have linked to the original article at the top of this post, we will summarise some of the arguments here. Be prepared for the traumatic shock of a few slaps of reality, such as we have been warning constantly, again and again. But as in the Matrix movie, most prefer to take the blue pill of the declarations and versions of the virtual reality of recovery, which governments try to hammer into our heads. However, we are already we recommended you to take the red pill 5 years ago. How time flies....: (more…)

What is an Outpost Family Office?

The concept is new and meets a logical and increasingly common need in a globalised world. It is common knowledge that Family Offices are companies or groups of professionals that are essentially dedicated to the management and control of the assets of one or several families, as well as to attending to all aspects that may affect these family groups, such as taxation, legal advice or assistance in family logistics and concierge services (concierging), among others. But the new figure that has appeared for the users of a Family Office (whether they are Clients of a Multi-Family Office, or owners of a Single-Family Office), is that of the Outpost FO, or global support network for a Family Office.  (more…)

The government decides that we will all guarantee 50 billion more to Spanish banks.

All of us are going to pay out of our own pockets. That is the decision taken unilaterally by the government. Without consultation, without objections, without light or stenographers, without shame. And the fact is that, as the accounting trap that converted the banks' tax credits into assets has gone wrong because the imminent Basel III regulations prohibit such a martingale, now the Government has decided to convert these future tax benefits of the banks directly into assets guaranteed by the State.

50 billion euros - that's nothing - will remain on the balance sheets of Spanish banks as assets, since otherwise Basel III would oblige the tax credits to be counted for what they are, i.e. a potential future and uncertain saving, and only if the bank is still standing after a few years and also makes profits that can amortise these tax credits. (more…)

How does the machinery of the economy work? Video by Ray Dalio

Here’s the 30-minute video by global macro management guru Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) has been created to explain, in a very clear and educational way, not only the economic dynamics that have led us to the current situation, but, more importantly, the roadmap for emerging from the great recession through a “graceful deleveraging”.

The video is in English (I haven’t managed to find it in Spanish or with subtitles yet) and is accompanied by some very pleasant and illustrative animations. Furthermore, its unhurried pace makes it easy to understand all the concepts explained in it. It is probably a suitable response or a different take on the famous video “Money as Debt“, which went viral a while ago. Hope you enjoy it: (more…)

The Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the RMB as a global reserve currency.

China’s new financial experiment covers an area of 29 km²: Shanghai FTZ. A «free trade zone» in which the Communist Party’s economic restrictions are lifted as if by a stroke of political policy. In this financial centre, international investors will be exempt from the investment restrictions that apply elsewhere in China. And, note this: in this artificial oasis, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB), will be freely traded, as will its interest rates!

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First Cyprus, now Poland, tomorrow…

I get the feeling that, despite having has been published at various media, has gone largely unnoticed by investors in general. But last week, it was quietly announced that no less than half of all Poles’ private pension schemes were to be confiscated. That’s right: a lifetime’s savings, set aside to provide for their needs in old age, have been halved overnight.  (more…)

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