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Cluster Family Office Blog

If you win the Christmas Lottery jackpot…

Estamos en épocas en las que millones de personas sueñan en la posibilidad de que la Lotería de Navidad les haga ricos. La creencia habitual es que una vez sucedido el milagro, los problemas les desaparecerán para siempre, y la felicidad será la norma hasta el fin de sus días. Pero todo dependerá de la actitud y las decisiones que tomen los agraciados a partir del momento en el que los Niños de San Ildefonso canten sus números. No tanto de la cantidad de dinero que suponga el premio, sino de la forma en la que decidan gestionar esa riqueza súbita.

Hace ya 5 años que publicamos un artículo titulado «Jurassic Park«, también por estas fechas navideñas, que «la coexistencia de una escasa capacidad para generar riqueza y una fortuna súbita, será en casi todos los casos una unión contranatura que buscará su reequilibrio». Es decir, que la unión de un montón de dinero caído del cielo, con personas que no han sido capaces de generarlo con su esfuerzo, suele durar pocos años, lamentablemente.

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The Age of Central Banks

It seems that the pieces of the ‘New Normal’ jigsaw are starting to fall into place. But, as is to be expected given that this is a ‘New Normal’, the way these pieces fit together is currently far less stable and orderly than in the ‘Old Normal’. And what may seem today like a completed part of the jigsaw may, by tomorrow, once again prove to be a state of great uncertainty and chaos.

The key difference between this new era and the previous one is, of course, the size of the balance sheets of all the central banks in developed economies: the Fed, the BoE, the BoJ and, to a lesser extent so far, the ECB. The headlong rush that quantitative easing (QE) represents is driving up the market prices of virtually all assets and directly related markets. And this reality is as striking as it is fleeting, since the mass printing of money has as much influence on asset prices as it is unsustainable, given that the tap on QE will inevitably have to be turned off at some point in the not-too-distant future. (more…)

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Financial Repression: A lifeline for debtors and a death sentence for investors.

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Many people will already be familiar with the term ‘financial repression’, but for most it will still be something unfamiliar – just another technical term in these times when we have learnt to talk quite naturally about subprime mortgages, deleveraging, the ‘new normal’ or the now overused term ‘stagflation’. The scenario in which we find ourselves – and in which we will continue to operate over the coming years – is one of ‘financial repression’. And this has been agreed upon by those who once dominated the economy but are now desperately trying not to drown in their own vomit – that is to say, their almost infinite debt: Europe, the USA and Japan. (more…)

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La Caixa's pressures on its customers: shall we talk?

Hoy os traemos un caso real que ha llegado a nuestras manos recientemente, y que desde aquí queremos denunciar públicamente. Es una muestra de la presión que ejercen en general los empleados de banca, y en particular esta directora de oficina de La Caixa, hacia sus Clientes, para retenerlos en la entidad a toda costa. Como veréis en este correo que la directora envía a su Cliente, ella utiliza la política del miedo y la manipulación para convencer al inversor de que está cometiendo una locura, y de paso desprestigiar nada menos que los planes de pensiones de Bestinver… Probablemente su correo es el mejor ejemplo del manual de venta agresiva e inmoral de la entidad. Y los superiores de esta directora, seguramente no dudarían en felicitarla por sus (malas) artes comerciales, destinadas a engordar los maltrechos balances de la banca. No es una excepción, lamentablemente así actúan nuestros bancos, anteponiendo su interés comercial al más elemental comportamiento ético en favor de sus Clientes, a quienes -conviene no olvidarlo- presumiblemente se deben y asesoran. (more…)

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Spain, recovery or lies?

We cannot ignore articles such as the one just published by Roberto Centeno in ElConfidencial.com, Neither for its forcefulness nor for its coincidence with many of the arguments that we have been giving since Cluster Family Office. Before going into the details, it is worth remembering that Centeno was CEO of companies such as Butano, Enagas, Campsa and is currently Chairman of Eneroil. He also holds a PhD in Economics from the Complutense University of Madrid and is Professor of Economics at the School of Mining Engineering of the UPM.

Although we have linked to the original article at the top of this post, we will summarise some of the arguments here. Be prepared for the traumatic shock of a few slaps of reality, such as we have been warning constantly, again and again. But as in the Matrix movie, most prefer to take the blue pill of the declarations and versions of the virtual reality of recovery, which governments try to hammer into our heads. However, we are already we recommended you to take the red pill 5 years ago. How time flies....: (more…)

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What is an Outpost Family Office?

The concept is new and meets a logical and increasingly common need in a globalised world. It is common knowledge that Family Offices are companies or groups of professionals that are essentially dedicated to the management and control of the assets of one or several families, as well as to attending to all aspects that may affect these family groups, such as taxation, legal advice or assistance in family logistics and concierge services (concierging), among others. But the new figure that has appeared for the users of a Family Office (whether they are Clients of a Multi-Family Office, or owners of a Single-Family Office), is that of the Outpost FO, or global support network for a Family Office.  (more…)

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The government decides that we will all guarantee 50 billion more to Spanish banks.

All of us are going to pay out of our own pockets. That is the decision taken unilaterally by the government. Without consultation, without objections, without light or stenographers, without shame. And the fact is that, as the accounting trap that converted the banks' tax credits into assets has gone wrong because the imminent Basel III regulations prohibit such a martingale, now the Government has decided to convert these future tax benefits of the banks directly into assets guaranteed by the State.

50 billion euros - that's nothing - will remain on the balance sheets of Spanish banks as assets, since otherwise Basel III would oblige the tax credits to be counted for what they are, i.e. a potential future and uncertain saving, and only if the bank is still standing after a few years and also makes profits that can amortise these tax credits. (more…)

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How does the machinery of the economy work? Video by Ray Dalio

Here’s the 30-minute video by global macro management guru Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) has been created to explain, in a very clear and educational way, not only the economic dynamics that have led us to the current situation, but, more importantly, the roadmap for emerging from the great recession through a “graceful deleveraging”.

The video is in English (I haven’t managed to find it in Spanish or with subtitles yet) and is accompanied by some very pleasant and illustrative animations. Furthermore, its unhurried pace makes it easy to understand all the concepts explained in it. It is probably a suitable response or a different take on the famous video “Money as Debt“, which went viral a while ago. Hope you enjoy it: (more…)

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The Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the RMB as a global reserve currency.

China’s new financial experiment covers an area of 29 km²: Shanghai FTZ. A «free trade zone» in which the Communist Party’s economic restrictions are lifted as if by a stroke of political policy. In this financial centre, international investors will be exempt from the investment restrictions that apply elsewhere in China. And, note this: in this artificial oasis, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB), will be freely traded, as will its interest rates!

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First Cyprus, now Poland, tomorrow…

Me da la sensación de que, a pesar de haber sido publicada at diversos medios, ha pasado bastante desapercibida por los inversores en general. Pero la pasada semana se anunció discretamente la confiscación nada menos que de más de la mitad de los planes de pensiones privados de todos los polacos. Así es, los ahorros de toda una vida, en previsión de poder cubrir las necesidades de la vejez, reducidos a la mitad de la noche a la mañana.  (more…)

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(+34) 93 626 47 75

Torres Sarrià, Carrer de Can Ràbia, 3-5, 4ª Planta BCN 08017

(+34) 91 794 19 82

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