Most investors care little about what might have happened. They only value and rate the quality of their bets by the final outcome. In other words, often without realising it, they subscribe to the old saying: “all's well that ends well”.
But when in the investment equation we leave behind simple performance and look at something as subtle and complex as the ultimate downside risk that has actually been taken (not volatility), things are getting more complicated... but for the better. And this is of particular importance in this New Normal, where security and risk have changed hands to the amazement and ignorance of the financial world, as we warned in “The New Normal", "The New Normal" and "The New Normal".“Who has taken my risk?” (more…)
Cuando aparentemente las situaciones deben desembocar en finales bipolares, la realidad nos sorprende con desenlaces de equilibrio a menudo insospechados. La experiencia suele demostrarnos que las soluciones no acostumbran a ser ni blancas ni negras, sino grises. Probablemente menos atrevidas pero quizá también más consensuadas, más populares, para bien o para mal. Lo mismo podría ocurrir en el desenlace del embrollo de la Eurozona, donde no son compatibles por más tiempo las economías periféricas con las del eje germánico sin que nos hagamos daño de verdad. 
We are in the eye of the storm. But not because of injustice or envy of our northern neighbours—no—but because of our own foolishness. That foolishness which has led us in the past to vote for governments of both political stripes, yet with one thing in common: an inability to manage the Spanish economy. We have missed a golden opportunity, given that economic growth and the surge in job creation in the Eurozone allowed us to boast of macroeconomic figures that made even those of France itself pale in comparison. And so Zapatero proclaimed on occasion, although today it is the Mercozy duo who must stifle their feelings in the face of the grotesque and surreal tragicomedy of the current periphery. «Spain is doing well,» we proclaimed to the four winds just a decade ago. Those were years when illusions of grandeur led the presidents of Spain and Portugal to meet in the Azores with the very presidents of the United Kingdom and the United States of America. Aznar, Barroso, Blair and Bush together shaping the plans that were to govern the New World Order. That was only nine years ago, but it seems so long ago…
First of all, we must tell you that the subject we are going to deal with today is complex and may offend some professional sensibilities. But that is not our intention at all, but rather our interest is focused on clarifying a situation that is currently generating a lot of confusion and, more importantly, is damaging families with a certain amount of wealth. Both large fortunes and small savers. We will therefore discuss, for example, Santander's convertible bonds, the recent inflammatory statements by Greg Smith (ex-Goldman Sachs), the types of assets that a properly diversified wealth should contain, the Spanish and Luxembourg regulators, banking, EAFIs, Family Office, or how to distinguish between a perverse advice and a perverse advice. comme il faut. We apologise for the length of the post, but we have chosen to publish it in its entirety so as not to lose the thread in the middle of the reflections that follow.