Family Office - Cluster Family Office

The side effects of Central Banks are already here.

It was to be expected that central bank intervention would not be innocuous. We warned a little more than a year ago and its effects are already blowing up in some people's faces. If to this massive intervention never seen before we add a couple of other ingredients (Madonna, Madonna, just a couple...) such as OPEC's plot to push down the price of oil, the conflict in Ukraine or the radicalisation of the alleged Islamic State in the Middle East (which affects even Paris itself), the amplification of the side effects of central bank intervention can and will be uncontrollable.

Today we are already witnessing brutal price movements, which do not correspond at all to a healthy financial system, nor to corrections or adjustments of excesses, but rather to the delusions of a system that has been in place for years. frankeinsteinian capable of anything. Let us look at some very significant examples in recent weeks which, however, have paradoxically had rather localised devastating effects until today: (more…)

El 2015 puede ser el annus horribilis para el inversor tradicional.

Antes de enumerar algunos riesgos a los que nos enfrentaremos este año, definamos lo que entendemos por «inversores tradicionales». Como tales pueden calificarse la inmensa mayoría de inversores particulares e incluso muchos institucionales. Y son aquellos que invierten su dinero en productos clásicos de renta fija y renta variable comercializados habitualmente por la banca. O sea, bonos y acciones cotizadas y fondos de inversión de todo tipo que invierten en esos mismos activos, pagando jugosas comisiones a los comercializadores (bancos) para que los coloquen entre sus clientes. Activos que han funcionado bien años atrás, cuando el sistema financiero no estaba desbordado por la deuda y la actuación de los bancos centrales.

No debemos perder de vista que el caldo de cultivo para que la mayoría de inversores tengan un año aciago está servido: (more…)

Have you won the lottery jackpot? The first 5 decisions you need to make.

Most lucky lottery winners end up losing their entire fortune within a few years. This is a quasi-universal law that affects the vast majority of lottery winners, as bad decisions start as early as the first minute after the draw. Let's see how bad decisions can be avoided in the first days or weeks after being chosen by the goddess Fortune. We will summarise them in 5 essential decisions and present them to you in the usual chronological order in which they should be taken.

The first The golden rule would be maximum discretion. The fewer people who know that we have won the jackpot or any other lottery, euromillions, etc., the better, much better. Not only for security reasons, but also to avoid, as far as possible, becoming a tempting lure for fraudsters, tricksters and unscrupulous and unscrupulous investment hunters. And bankers should also be included in this bag, as they will immediately be on the lookout for their prey as soon as they smell the blood of the nouveau riche and its irresistible liquidity. However, some bankers will have to be told, since the winning tenth or tenths must be deposited in a bank for collection and the corresponding 20% withholding, in other words, the first tax bite from the State. But be careful, (more…)

Generating income in a scenario of expensive bonds and rising rates.

Generating income when rates can only go up, and doing so in an environment of recession or anaemic growth, is at best a pipe dream. The fact is that there comes a point at which trying to scrape a tenth of a yield by adding risk (and we are not talking about mere volatility but the dreaded insolvency) is not only reckless but also increasingly difficult to achieve. A few examples to illustrate this point: The Spanish 10-year sovereign bond, with government indebtedness of 100% of GDP and its persistent public deficit of -7%, offers an incredible yield of 1.96% per annum. Or the high yield corporate debt of companies in the developed world, as over-indebted as the countries, with yields that are less and less «high» and which will be mercilessly crushed by the rise in interest rates. And what can we say about Greece itself, the paradigm of insolvency and the impossible rescue by states also in need of a bailout, offering a ridiculous 7.79% for 10 years. In other words, the investor receives 7.79 per annum in exchange for Greece being able to pay back its euros intact in 2024... Insane. The sovereign debt that many investors have in their portfolios (ignoring the fact that there is life beyond traditional listed fixed income), which has risen as much as the Spanish risk premium has fallen in the last two years, reminds me a lot of the turkey sentiment before Christmas... (more…)

El timo de los fondos perfilados

Esta es la última moda en las técnicas de abuso comisionista de la banca, y parece que llegó hace unos meses para quedarse entre los inversores más cándidos. Los fondos perfilados en definitiva son fondos de fondos cuyo criterio de selección es mantener una combinación de aproximadamente media docena de fondos que en su conjunto se adecuen al perfil inversor tipo: Agresivo, moderado, dinámico, conservador, etc. O sea, que en lugar de que el asesor de la entidad bancaria de turno recomiende a sus Clientes tener en cartera 4, 6 u 8 fondos determinados, sustituyendo unos por otros cuando lo considere necesario, le va a proponer comprar sólo uno, el perfilado. Y serán los gestores de éste quienes compran y vendan los que quieran en cada momento, sin que el inversor ni se entere. (more…)

Accounting traps to inflate GDP.

Accounting creativity« is nothing more than a euphemism for falsehood, for cheating in accounting so that it reflects a distorted reality, to suit the interests of those in power. And today those in power are an EU that at all costs needs to simulate solvency and growth in the countries of its periphery, so that investors do not flee those economies. If they did, there would not be enough money - or will - in northern Europe to avoid bankruptcy and the collapse of Eurozone unity.

It seems, therefore, that it is in nobody's interest that the reality of the economic miseries of the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain... and some others such as France...) becomes evident and scares away national and international investors. That is why the ECB keeps the risk premium at floor level through all kinds of quantitative and pseudo-covert facilities to banks and states. It is also in charge of keeping alive the profits of banks that have their warehouses full of rotting real estate on the basis of free liquidity bars. And European and Spanish regulators look the other way when financial institutions value these properties above their market price on their balance sheets to avoid obvious bankruptcy. Anything goes to feign stability, for the good of all (sic). Accounting engineering or creativity« is also being used in Spain. when it comes to handling unemployment and other macro figures, on the demand of electoral needs and balancing with the impositions overseen by the Troika. (more…)

Analysis of the turkey the day before Christmas.

The turkey paradox is the story in which one of these animals is fattened and cared for throughout its life by its owner, with the intention of eating it on Christmas Day. The paradox comes from the turkey's own subjective view of events, who is pampered, fed and cared for excellently throughout its existence. And nothing makes him think - if turkeys could think - on Christmas Eve that this magnificent owner is going to cut his throat and eat him the next day, after a lifetime of attention from the best friend. I say friend, the best father! Many of you are already familiar with this turkey paradox, but it will be interesting to think about the options for analysing the turkey's situation if we use it as a metaphor that can be extrapolated to any investor, with Christmas Day being the metaphor equivalent to the fall in share prices in the investor's portfolio. (more…)

Bienvenido Mr. Putin.

De la caída del muro de Berlín y de la extinción del telón de acero todos nos deberíamos acordar, puesto que hace apenas un cuarto de siglo de aquellos hechos que cambiaron por completo las influencias geopolíticas. Los países del Este se escindieron de la influencia soviética sin que Rusia pudiese hacer nada para evitarlo, porque su economía comunista se derrumbó como un castillo de naipes. El vacío de poder fue enorme, surrealista en la hasta entonces segunda potencia mundial. Y la órbita de países que estaban bajo su influencia política y económica, fueron recibidos con los brazos abiertos por el libre Mercado occidental, a pesar de su retraso económico evidente. El nuevo orden mundial tenía al fin vendedores y vencidos, y los vencedores eran «los buenos» y el derrotado el «comunismo diabólico». (more…)

What is really happening in Iraq?

Los noticieros se encargan de informarnos en estos últimos días de que el gobierno iraquí está luchando dentro de sus propias fronteras contra un enemigo que abraza el más sangriento yihadismo: El Estado Islámico de Irak y el Levante (ISIL). Es decir, la deriva violenta radical del salafismo que ampara el gobierno saudí, país que por su parte defiende la lectura más literal y puritana del Islam. ISIL, que conquista territorio día a día en Irak y que lucha también contra Bashar Al Asad en Siria (de ahí que añadieran a su acrónimo la palabra «Levante»), es tan sangriento que incluso su antaño aliado Al Qaeda dejó de apoyarlo, al menos directamente.

Sería pues pecar de simplista relacionar directamente el gobierno de Arabia Saudí con el yihadismo de ISIL, que está tratando de tomar el poder en todo el territorio iraquí. Pero si a esta ecuación le añadimos que étnicamente los dirigentes saudíes y los guerrilleros de ISIL son sunitas, y enemigos seculares de la etnia chiíta que gobierna Irak desde la evacuación de las tropas americanas, las piezas comienzan a encajar algo más. Resumiendo mucho, los chiítas de todo oriente medio vienen siendo el pueblo pobre que se extiende alrededor de los pozos petrolíferos que están bajo dominio sunita, es decir propiedad de los emiratos y países como Arabia Saudí, Bahraín, etc. Y ante la radicalización de los yihadistas suníes, occidente es ahora proclive a apoyar la etnia chiíta, que gobierna en Irak. (more…)

How to invest when equities are highly variable and bonds are no longer fixed.

We are already seeing evidence of a new paradigm in the world of finance. The New Normal of which so much we have spoken at repeatedly It is here and it is here to stay. So we have a very uncertain outlook ahead of us. With an influence of central banks that has never been seen before and that distorts everything, but be careful: an intervention that tends to be reduced in the USA and increased in Europe.

Let's take it one step at a time. As far as equities are concerned, it should not escape anyone's notice that stock prices in the US and even in many Eurozone countries are expensive. It is true that the influence of exceptional measures by the respective central banks can keep company prices well above their fair value for a long time. And that this is a desire that every ruler usually embraces, as it improves, at least in appearance, the financial state of the population and its consequent consumption, optimism, voting, etc. But we should not forget that QE in the US is on its way to drying up and that rates are close to a rationalisation in the form of a rally. Therefore, the US stock market has anything but fundamental appeal. And the universal law of the market is implacable, so investments in expensive stocks relative to the fundamentals of these businesses will only lead to disappointment - permanent losses - in the medium to long term. (more…)

(+34) 93 626 47 75

(+34) 91 794 19 82

Category: Family Office

The side effects of Central Banks are already here.

El 2015 puede ser el annus horribilis para el inversor tradicional.

Have you won the lottery jackpot? The first 5 decisions you need to make.

Generating income in a scenario of expensive bonds and rising rates.

El timo de los fondos perfilados

Accounting traps to inflate GDP.

Analysis of the turkey the day before Christmas.

Bienvenido Mr. Putin.

What is really happening in Iraq?

How to invest when equities are highly variable and bonds are no longer fixed.

Shall we help you search?

Cluster Family Office

Do you need help in capital and wealth management?

How can I avoid the negative effects that my fortune may have on my children?

How and when should I talk to my children about family wealth, and what relationship should they have with money throughout their adolescence?

How can I measure the real risks of my investments and protect my assets adequately?

Do I have sufficient liquidity and stable income to cover my needs on a permanent basis?

(+34) 93 626 47 75

(+34) 91 794 19 82