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Category: Family Office

Peripheral bubble: The perfect storm.

Philippe Legrain is the author of several books, such as «Open World: The truth about globalisation«He has also been and is a very influential person in EU economic policy. Not for nothing has he been a senior advisor and head of the analyst team of the Bureau of European Policy Advisers for the President of the European Commission José Manuel Durao Barroso. And as such, has led the team that has directly advised the EU's strategic economic policy.

Well, from his privileged perspective, Legrain has recently published an article in the Financial Times entitled «.«Investors are ignoring eurozone risks«This is in line with our opinion, which we have reiterated in several articles about the mirage of bonanza that the markets are quoting with respect to the European peripheral economies: «...the European Union's peripheral economies are in a state of crisis.«Mátrix and the green shoots«, «The double standards of bubbles«and many others.

Below is a free translation and commentary of Legrain's article:

Peripheral bond yields are reaching bubble proportions. Markets awash with liquidity both camouflage and exacerbate long-term economic problems and insolvency. Investors and policymakers should have learned that lesson in the pre-crisis bubble years. Yet they have gone from hysterical panic to short-sighted complacency in less than two years. (more…)

Where wisdom is a duty, ignorance is a crime.

Muchos empleados de banca asean sus consciencias de lo ocurrido con las preferentes y demás productos tóxicos, proclamando su ignorancia respecto a los peligros intrínsecos que conllevaban esas inversiones que colocaron a diestro y siniestro. También muchos se escudan diciendo que la responsabilidad era de sus jefes, y que ellos eran sólo unos mandados que cumplían órdenes de vender indiscriminadamente productos cuyos riesgos se ocultaron o se ignoraban. Y la excusa de la ignorancia de los riesgos que esos productos tenían, la esgrimen en mayor o menor medida en toda la escala jerárquica de la banca, desde el gestor de banca privada hasta el empleado de banca comercial, pasando por el director de oficina. Pero ni la jerarquía en la responsabilidad ni la ignorancia eximen de culpa a ninguno de ellos, como veremos más adelante. (more…)

The double standards of bubbles

We all shudder (or should shudder) when we contemplate the possibility that our money is invested in assets whose prices are at what is known as a «bubble», i.e. at levels far higher than their real intrinsic value, the result of unfounded speculation. Investing in bubbles is the mistake we all want to avoid at all costs, because if they burst, the losses will be irrecoverable or, at best, it will take decades to recover the value lost. Because, if the capacity of those assets to generate Value does not increase considerably, those prices at which we buy wildly will not occur again without the help of a new bubble on that same asset, which may never happen or take more years than our own investment life. Therefore, the losses we risk are permanent and not temporary. And the time it takes for our investments to recover from temporary price declines (which can occur in virtually any asset). is inversely proportional to the intrinsic value of those assets. Y is the big difference between investing well and investing badly.

(more…)

Russia's motives

A través de la siempre recomendable newsletter de John Mauldin, hemos tenido acceso a un análisis, a nuestro juicio muy interesante y revelador, que realiza Louis-Vincent Gave, de Gavekal Research, sobre los motivos que han llevado a Rusia a actuar como lo está haciendo en el conflicto de Crimea. Y también nos ayuda a comprender las claves que pueden determinar la evolución de este conflicto y la geoestrategia general que de él se derive. Vamos a tratar de resumiros los principales argumentos de este análisis, así como haceros algunas reflexiones sobre ellos: (more…)

From Russia with (more) Courage.

13 months ago we wrote a article in which we told you about the enormous value that existed in the Russian stock market.. In it we cited some companies that were trading at extraordinarily low earnings multiples, whose businesses were very stable and therefore had a dizzying potential for revaluation. Well, the geopolitical circumstances, i.e. the botched EU/US attempt to foment a pro-European revolution in a Ukraine at least half of which is pro-Russian, have caused the semi-war conflict to affect Moscow's stock market with sharp falls, adding even more value to some of its companies.

We should not lose sight of the fact that the conflict does not directly affect Russian territory or its economy. Or at least not as much as it does the EU itself, which is as recklessly dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies as a diver is on his oxygen tank. You will get a clearer idea of what I mean by looking at the graph at the end of this article. this Gurusblog article.

It is clear, then, that it is not Russia that has the most to lose in this conflict, but the EU. And yet the Western (US-EU) strategy, in its eagerness to incorporate Ukraine into NATO and thus advance the allied military border to the very line between Ukraine and Russia, has upset the fragile balance of the government in Kiev. A once pro-Russian government, but governing a single state, and now non-existent, unrecognised by the east and southeast (Russian-speaking) and financially bankrupt. Thus the secession of Ukraine into two antagonistic camps, pro-Russian and pro-Western, seems unstoppable. (more…)

A one-off wealth levy.

It has been almost a year since we had already warned that the council of German experts advising Chancellor Merkel recommended that the leaders of southern Europe confiscate a portion of the value of property from owners in the EU’s periphery in order to prevent the collapse of the peripheral financial system. At that time, this body – known as the «five wise men» – argued that whenever a bailout of banks or southern European states was necessary, it should be carried out internally (a «bail-in»), that is, using money from the citizens themselves living in the countries in distress. And that confiscating a proportion of the value of property was the easiest, most practical and simplest way to obtain the money needed to prevent the collapse of peripheral states and the financial system. This was because doing it the Cypriot way – by confiscating a portion of bank accounts – caused greater public alarm, and it was also easier for ‘the targets’ to avoid confiscation by transferring the money out of the country (as the better-advised Cypriots did). Property, on the other hand, is tied up; it cannot be transferred overnight to Luxembourg, Switzerland or Germany, and at the same time it is viewed more favourably to steal to confiscate property from property owners – who are presumed to have greater wealth – rather than from savers or investors who live in rented accommodation. (more…)

Resolving the dilemma of whether or not to go against the market.

«If there’s one thing I’ve learnt over the years, it’s that you shouldn’t go against the market«That is the blunt remark made a few days ago by a senior executive at a national bank to one of our clients. In fact, it is a phrase we have heard on many other occasions from various bank employees, and even from some savers, over the nearly three decades that we have been investing our money and that of our clients.

The question we are going to try to settle once and for all is whether it is true that, in the long run, we must stand up to Mr Market, or whether, on the contrary, we should let our investments ride out the ups and downs of the markets. And the answer may come as a surprise to more than a few: It depends on whether we are bankers or investors. Let us explain. (more…)

If you win the Christmas Lottery jackpot…

Estamos en épocas en las que millones de personas sueñan en la posibilidad de que la Lotería de Navidad les haga ricos. La creencia habitual es que una vez sucedido el milagro, los problemas les desaparecerán para siempre, y la felicidad será la norma hasta el fin de sus días. Pero todo dependerá de la actitud y las decisiones que tomen los agraciados a partir del momento en el que los Niños de San Ildefonso canten sus números. No tanto de la cantidad de dinero que suponga el premio, sino de la forma en la que decidan gestionar esa riqueza súbita.

Hace ya 5 años que publicamos un artículo titulado «Jurassic Park«, también por estas fechas navideñas, que «la coexistencia de una escasa capacidad para generar riqueza y una fortuna súbita, será en casi todos los casos una unión contranatura que buscará su reequilibrio». Es decir, que la unión de un montón de dinero caído del cielo, con personas que no han sido capaces de generarlo con su esfuerzo, suele durar pocos años, lamentablemente.

(more…)

Financial Repression: A lifeline for debtors and a death sentence for investors.

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Many people will already be familiar with the term ‘financial repression’, but for most it will still be something unfamiliar – just another technical term in these times when we have learnt to talk quite naturally about subprime mortgages, deleveraging, the ‘new normal’ or the now overused term ‘stagflation’. The scenario in which we find ourselves – and in which we will continue to operate over the coming years – is one of ‘financial repression’. And this has been agreed upon by those who once dominated the economy but are now desperately trying not to drown in their own vomit – that is to say, their almost infinite debt: Europe, the USA and Japan. (more…)

Spain, recovery or lies?

We cannot ignore articles such as the one just published by Roberto Centeno in ElConfidencial.com, Neither for its forcefulness nor for its coincidence with many of the arguments that we have been giving since Cluster Family Office. Before going into the details, it is worth remembering that Centeno was CEO of companies such as Butano, Enagas, Campsa and is currently Chairman of Eneroil. He also holds a PhD in Economics from the Complutense University of Madrid and is Professor of Economics at the School of Mining Engineering of the UPM.

Although we have linked to the original article at the top of this post, we will summarise some of the arguments here. Be prepared for the traumatic shock of a few slaps of reality, such as we have been warning constantly, again and again. But as in the Matrix movie, most prefer to take the blue pill of the declarations and versions of the virtual reality of recovery, which governments try to hammer into our heads. However, we are already we recommended you to take the red pill 5 years ago. How time flies....: (more…)

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