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Category: Reflexion

What is an Outpost Family Office?

The concept is new and meets a logical and increasingly common need in a globalised world. It is common knowledge that Family Offices are companies or groups of professionals that are essentially dedicated to the management and control of the assets of one or several families, as well as to attending to all aspects that may affect these family groups, such as taxation, legal advice or assistance in family logistics and concierge services (concierging), among others. But the new figure that has appeared for the users of a Family Office (whether they are Clients of a Multi-Family Office, or owners of a Single-Family Office), is that of the Outpost FO, or global support network for a Family Office.  (more…)

The government decides that we will all guarantee 50 billion more to Spanish banks.

All of us are going to pay out of our own pockets. That is the decision taken unilaterally by the government. Without consultation, without objections, without light or stenographers, without shame. And the fact is that, as the accounting trap that converted the banks' tax credits into assets has gone wrong because the imminent Basel III regulations prohibit such a martingale, now the Government has decided to convert these future tax benefits of the banks directly into assets guaranteed by the State.

50 billion euros - that's nothing - will remain on the balance sheets of Spanish banks as assets, since otherwise Basel III would oblige the tax credits to be counted for what they are, i.e. a potential future and uncertain saving, and only if the bank is still standing after a few years and also makes profits that can amortise these tax credits. (more…)

How does the machinery of the economy work? Video by Ray Dalio

Here’s the 30-minute video by global macro management guru Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) has been created to explain, in a very clear and educational way, not only the economic dynamics that have led us to the current situation, but, more importantly, the roadmap for emerging from the great recession through a “graceful deleveraging”.

The video is in English (I haven’t managed to find it in Spanish or with subtitles yet) and is accompanied by some very pleasant and illustrative animations. Furthermore, its unhurried pace makes it easy to understand all the concepts explained in it. It is probably a suitable response or a different take on the famous video “Money as Debt“, which went viral a while ago. Hope you enjoy it: (more…)

First Cyprus, now Poland, tomorrow…

I get the feeling that, despite having has been published at various media, has gone largely unnoticed by investors in general. But last week, it was quietly announced that no less than half of all Poles’ private pension schemes were to be confiscated. That’s right: a lifetime’s savings, set aside to provide for their needs in old age, have been halved overnight.  (more…)

Italy’s risk premium is already higher than Spain’s…

Attention, attention! It is hereby proclaimed from the rooftops that the Spanish risk premium has already performed slightly better than Italy’s. The Government and its political allies can now add this figure to their «long» list of green shoots, which our economy seems to be enjoying of late. This will undoubtedly be the more or less caricatured narrative we’ll be hearing over the next few days. But do we really have grounds to be pleased with the economic figures? Here are a couple of examples – or rather, a couple of harsh realities. Take a look at this simple table from JPMorgan: (more…)

The dangers of doping and withdrawal

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Over the last five years, central banks seemed set to rack up one victory after another in the Tour de France, thanks to their penchant for «doping’ – in the form of creating electronic money out of thin air. But the announcement by the US Federal Reserve of its mere intention to start turning off the tap in the coming quarters seems to have opened Pandora’s box. The effects of this announcement have gone beyond a simple correction in the price of US Treasuries, and fears are also spreading to other central banks such as the Bank of England (‘MPC members were concerned by the «surprising» rise in UK government bond yields that followed Bernanke’s remarks«) or the European (“There is a strong correlation between the 10-year US Treasury yield and European government bond yields with the same maturity.”). (more…)

Recovery and stability are here... eppur si muove!

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It appears that August 2013 is marking the start of the Eurozone’s economic recovery. Peripheral risk premiums are shrinking like raisins, whilst the price of German government bonds is falling (yields rising), mirroring US Treasury bonds. The political class and the establishment The Western media are hailing it as such, whilst keeping their fingers crossed that the prophecy will become a self-fulfilling one.

However, mathematics is stubborn. And so is economics. Despite the faith and the malicious or ignorant opinions of politicians and analysts, as Galileo said: e pur si muove. In other words, Spain’s deficit, its economic recession and its unpayable debt reveal the harsh reality: we are far, very far from achieving growth and regaining solvency. That is why reductions in the risk premium are nothing more than mirages in a desert of recession and deleveraging that we have barely begun to navigate. A temporary and unjustified improvement that is the result of political propaganda and the well-known inefficiency of the markets.  (more…)

Old Money and New Money

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A distinction must be made between two clearly differentiated types of estates: Estates that have been created by a single generation, and which are passed on to one or two subsequent generations at the most, since they die out along the way due to their smaller size and the usual dilapidation by the recipients of inheritances. And the large estates that are passed on from generation to generation, impersonally and in large family groups over many, many years. We call the former New Money and the second Old Money. (more…)

A question of priorities

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We are now in a phase of accommodation to chaos. The world turned upside down that summer of 2007 (I would even say that it began to do so after the 9/11 attacks on the WTC in 2001), and we have gone through a convulsive five years like few others, like very few others. And now it seems that we have become accustomed to the nonsense: to see the markets rise when the US unemployment figures worsen, because they are confident that this will mean the continuation of the infinite printing of money. Or to see bond yields fall when the FED insinuates that things are getting better and it will soon be able to take off the life support (QE) to the economy. Not to mention countless other absurd and unheard-of reactions and correlations. (more…)

The Analysts.

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Today I’m reading a news article in *Expansión* which I’d rather laugh off, but which is actually enough to make you burst into tears – or rather, to make you foam at the mouth with sheer indignation. The news report reads as follows: «UBS withdraws its board recommendation just one day later’ to sell »Red Eléctrica’. This story is yet another example (the umpteenth) of the mediocrity of the analyses produced by the research departments of banks as high-profile as UBS itself. But the saddest thing is that this can be extrapolated to virtually the entire banking sector. (more…)

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