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Category: Reflexion

The Cyprus Experiment: The euro is quietly falling apart.

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The dreaded abolition is here de facto the free movement of money between Eurozone countries. And it has happened as always, quietly, behind closed doors, and in the country of Mediterranean soda experiments: Cyprus. The first case to come to the New York Times forum It was Marios Loucaides, a Cypriot businessman who had the audacity to try to buy a flat in neighbouring Athens a few weeks ago.

Don’t think this was some massive purchase or a deal worth millions of euros – no. It was simply a matter of buying a modest flat for €170,000. Mr Loucaides agreed with the Athenian owner that he would transfer the amount upon his return to Cyprus, something that should be perfectly normal and routine between EU countries sharing a currency in the much-vaunted Eurozone. But no. The money could not leave the country after endless obstacles, and the sale fell through. The Athenian owner will have to find a buyer with real money – that is, euros, not Cypriot currency.

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This Friday, Ecofin is discussing the directive designed to steal your money from the bank.

Believe it or not, it’s true. This Friday, 21 June 2013 Ecofin will discuss the order in which the forthcoming bank seizure (there are no plans as yet to reveal the date on which the ‘corralito’ will take effect, but at least that’s something…) will affect the banks’ loyal customers. On the one hand, there is the Spanish position, which has, unsurprisingly, written its letter to the Three Kings and is trying in vain to persuade the Netherlands and Germany to guarantee all deposits exceeding €100,000. But the stance of those in charge in Europe is to treat depositors (or subscribers to any financial product that places their money on the banks’ balance sheets) on a par with senior debt bondholders. (more…)

What is happening to the gold and silver market?

As we mentioned in our previous article, «The Beast is awakening…«, let’s try to shed some light on the surprising behaviour of the precious metals market. Physical demand for gold and, above all, silver coins and bullion is skyrocketing week by week. And it is highly significant that, for the first time in history, the prices of futures, ETFs and other investment instruments not directly linked to the physical possession of gold and silver, It is currently being sold at a discount regarding actual bullion and coins. If that isn’t mistrust of the metals markets and the policies of printing fiat money, then God help us. And what’s worse, it’s almost impossible to reverse the doping of the quantitative easing provided by the Fed and the ECB, without derailing the fledgling US recovery and/or tearing the Eurozone apart into at least two pieces.  (more…)

The Beast is awakening…

By the spring of 2011, some of us had already realised that we were facing the most complex situation we had ever experienced in the markets, and indeed, 2011 was a a year of misfortune. However, this was not so much due to the results (the markets fell much more sharply in 2008), but rather to unprecedented upheavals in the financial system. That autumn, we wrote an article entitled «You can’t see the wood for the trees«, and I recommend you read it again to better understand what we are currently facing and what we will be discussing below.

By the end of 2011, however, we had enjoyed a peaceful honeymoon period that lasted for around five quarters. During this time, we never tired of telling our clients that none of the deadly problems affecting the European periphery – that is to say, all of us – had been resolved. And that the risk premium, equities and fixed income appeared to be a haven of peace solely and exclusively because the Beast was asleep. Nothing more. Well then, dear readers, the Beast is waking up, and with it the woes of our economies, the systemic imbalances and the indiscriminate market crashes. (more…)

You have to choose between financial stability and low volatility

Just this week, our friend Marc Garrigasait (who, by the way, has just launched a new fund called Panda Agriculture & Water), this article on Cotizalia, which includes the interactive chart I’ve linked to at the end; although it’s somewhat outdated and inaccurate, it provides a very revealing insight into the current state of global solvency.

A few voices such as Bill Miller's are beginning to dare to say what we have been warning about for years in articles such as «The Flight to Quality in Solvency«: that risk has taken hold of what was traditionally considered the Holy of Holies in terms of safety, that is, fixed-income securities from the most developed countries and companies. And that includes, of course, all products guaranteed by the banks (such as companies with bankrupt balance sheets), ranging from deposits to the bank’s own debt in all its forms, or the more or less Machiavellian structured products. (more…)

The growing middle class as an investment criterion.

In the world of investment, there are various strategies and criteria we can use to select the assets in which we wish to invest our money. In the equity market (although we could also apply this partially to fixed income and, to a lesser extent, to other types of assets such as commodities), we essentially have three general criteria:

  1. Analysis of companies’ key financial data: examination of balance sheets, sales figures, profits, corporate governance, etc. All of this covers past, present and future forecasts.
  2. Technical analysis: Market psychology, which involves interpreting the charts that reflect constantly changing share prices.
  3. Analysis of macroeconomic trends: A useful complement to the first criterion. (more…)

Spain Ltd.

It is curious to see how, on the European periphery, there is still a belief that our states retain their status as public entities. As sovereign countries with decision-making power over all their state affairs, just like any other nation in the world. For example, that, as the independent states we are, we continue to determine our own economic, fiscal and monetary policies, as well as our labour, social and economic policies in general. That we are and will remain sovereign countries, whatever happens to our economies. Whether poorer or richer, whether banana republics or prosperous countries aspiring to join the G20 (sic), we are always masters of our own destiny. We are mistaken. (more…)

The world, and our investments, are becoming increasingly multi-currency

The concern about keeping our assets in the right currency is something that has always been a major worry for anyone with wealth or savings. In the days of the peseta, any self-respecting investor had to hold the bulk of their assets «in foreign currency», mostly in US dollars or Swiss francs. And later, with the arrival of the euro, the situation for Spanish savers became much clearer, as overnight we found ourselves with a world-leading currency right in our own pockets. (more…)

Are my savings safe from confiscation if I buy property?

We have heard from a number of professionals who manage the property portfolios of wealthy families that, since the ‘corralito’ and the 60% levy on bank deposits in Cyprus, their property buying and selling business has seen a boost. Many Spanish and peripheral investors in general, faced with their inability to find a solution who want to protect their money from crises such as the one in Cyprus are deciding to buy property in their own country. (more…)

If we're going to lose, let's lose in the Mediterranean. Reinhart or Soares

I got my hands on it this weekend an interview to the Harvard economist, Carmen Reinhart, published by Spiegel International. In it, as always, Reinhart hits the nail on the head every time she speaks. She explains that central banks are easing credit conditions with near-zero interest rates as a form of orderly and subtle default. (more…)

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