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Category: gestion financiera

The government decides that we will all guarantee 50 billion more to Spanish banks.

All of us are going to pay out of our own pockets. That is the decision taken unilaterally by the government. Without consultation, without objections, without light or stenographers, without shame. And the fact is that, as the accounting trap that converted the banks' tax credits into assets has gone wrong because the imminent Basel III regulations prohibit such a martingale, now the Government has decided to convert these future tax benefits of the banks directly into assets guaranteed by the State.

50 billion euros - that's nothing - will remain on the balance sheets of Spanish banks as assets, since otherwise Basel III would oblige the tax credits to be counted for what they are, i.e. a potential future and uncertain saving, and only if the bank is still standing after a few years and also makes profits that can amortise these tax credits. (more…)

First Cyprus, now Poland, tomorrow…

I get the feeling that, despite having has been published at various media, has gone largely unnoticed by investors in general. But last week, it was quietly announced that no less than half of all Poles’ private pension schemes were to be confiscated. That’s right: a lifetime’s savings, set aside to provide for their needs in old age, have been halved overnight.  (more…)

Italy’s risk premium is already higher than Spain’s…

Attention, attention! It is hereby proclaimed from the rooftops that the Spanish risk premium has already performed slightly better than Italy’s. The Government and its political allies can now add this figure to their «long» list of green shoots, which our economy seems to be enjoying of late. This will undoubtedly be the more or less caricatured narrative we’ll be hearing over the next few days. But do we really have grounds to be pleased with the economic figures? Here are a couple of examples – or rather, a couple of harsh realities. Take a look at this simple table from JPMorgan: (more…)

The dangers of doping and withdrawal

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Over the last five years, central banks seemed set to rack up one victory after another in the Tour de France, thanks to their penchant for «doping’ – in the form of creating electronic money out of thin air. But the announcement by the US Federal Reserve of its mere intention to start turning off the tap in the coming quarters seems to have opened Pandora’s box. The effects of this announcement have gone beyond a simple correction in the price of US Treasuries, and fears are also spreading to other central banks such as the Bank of England (‘MPC members were concerned by the «surprising» rise in UK government bond yields that followed Bernanke’s remarks«) or the European (“There is a strong correlation between the 10-year US Treasury yield and European government bond yields with the same maturity.”). (more…)

A question of priorities

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We are now in a phase of accommodation to chaos. The world turned upside down that summer of 2007 (I would even say that it began to do so after the 9/11 attacks on the WTC in 2001), and we have gone through a convulsive five years like few others, like very few others. And now it seems that we have become accustomed to the nonsense: to see the markets rise when the US unemployment figures worsen, because they are confident that this will mean the continuation of the infinite printing of money. Or to see bond yields fall when the FED insinuates that things are getting better and it will soon be able to take off the life support (QE) to the economy. Not to mention countless other absurd and unheard-of reactions and correlations. (more…)

The Analysts.

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Today I’m reading a news article in *Expansión* which I’d rather laugh off, but which is actually enough to make you burst into tears – or rather, to make you foam at the mouth with sheer indignation. The news report reads as follows: «UBS withdraws its board recommendation just one day later’ to sell »Red Eléctrica’. This story is yet another example (the umpteenth) of the mediocrity of the analyses produced by the research departments of banks as high-profile as UBS itself. But the saddest thing is that this can be extrapolated to virtually the entire banking sector. (more…)

The Cyprus Experiment: The euro is quietly falling apart.

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The dreaded abolition is here de facto the free movement of money between Eurozone countries. And it has happened as always, quietly, behind closed doors, and in the country of Mediterranean soda experiments: Cyprus. The first case to come to the New York Times forum It was Marios Loucaides, a Cypriot businessman who had the audacity to try to buy a flat in neighbouring Athens a few weeks ago.

Don’t think this was some massive purchase or a deal worth millions of euros – no. It was simply a matter of buying a modest flat for €170,000. Mr Loucaides agreed with the Athenian owner that he would transfer the amount upon his return to Cyprus, something that should be perfectly normal and routine between EU countries sharing a currency in the much-vaunted Eurozone. But no. The money could not leave the country after endless obstacles, and the sale fell through. The Athenian owner will have to find a buyer with real money – that is, euros, not Cypriot currency.

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Are we coming to our senses?

Tim Haywood is the chief investment officer and head of the fixed-income division at the asset management firm GAM. And a few days ago he published some views that strike us as among the most reasonable to be found these days, when Bernanke has (further) thrown the financial world into turmoil. Tim essentially said the following: Bernanke has put the market under more strain than might have been expected. And this means that future communications from the Fed will become more delicate, more complicated to articulate and manage. Yet Bernanke’s statements were measured, logical and consistent. By contrast, the reactions of global markets were extreme and largely unfounded. (more…)

This Friday, Ecofin is discussing the directive designed to steal your money from the bank.

Believe it or not, it’s true. This Friday, 21 June 2013 Ecofin will discuss the order in which the forthcoming bank seizure (there are no plans as yet to reveal the date on which the ‘corralito’ will take effect, but at least that’s something…) will affect the banks’ loyal customers. On the one hand, there is the Spanish position, which has, unsurprisingly, written its letter to the Three Kings and is trying in vain to persuade the Netherlands and Germany to guarantee all deposits exceeding €100,000. But the stance of those in charge in Europe is to treat depositors (or subscribers to any financial product that places their money on the banks’ balance sheets) on a par with senior debt bondholders. (more…)

The Beast is awakening…

By the spring of 2011, some of us had already realised that we were facing the most complex situation we had ever experienced in the markets, and indeed, 2011 was a a year of misfortune. However, this was not so much due to the results (the markets fell much more sharply in 2008), but rather to unprecedented upheavals in the financial system. That autumn, we wrote an article entitled «You can’t see the wood for the trees«, and I recommend you read it again to better understand what we are currently facing and what we will be discussing below.

By the end of 2011, however, we had enjoyed a peaceful honeymoon period that lasted for around five quarters. During this time, we never tired of telling our clients that none of the deadly problems affecting the European periphery – that is to say, all of us – had been resolved. And that the risk premium, equities and fixed income appeared to be a haven of peace solely and exclusively because the Beast was asleep. Nothing more. Well then, dear readers, the Beast is waking up, and with it the woes of our economies, the systemic imbalances and the indiscriminate market crashes. (more…)

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