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Category: gestion financiera

The government decides that we will all guarantee 50 billion more to Spanish banks.

All of us are going to pay out of our own pockets. That is the decision taken unilaterally by the government. Without consultation, without objections, without light or stenographers, without shame. And the fact is that, as the accounting trap that converted the banks' tax credits into assets has gone wrong because the imminent Basel III regulations prohibit such a martingale, now the Government has decided to convert these future tax benefits of the banks directly into assets guaranteed by the State.

50 billion euros - that's nothing - will remain on the balance sheets of Spanish banks as assets, since otherwise Basel III would oblige the tax credits to be counted for what they are, i.e. a potential future and uncertain saving, and only if the bank is still standing after a few years and also makes profits that can amortise these tax credits. (more…)

First Cyprus, now Poland, tomorrow…

Me da la sensación de que, a pesar de haber sido publicada at diversos medios, ha pasado bastante desapercibida por los inversores en general. Pero la pasada semana se anunció discretamente la confiscación nada menos que de más de la mitad de los planes de pensiones privados de todos los polacos. Así es, los ahorros de toda una vida, en previsión de poder cubrir las necesidades de la vejez, reducidos a la mitad de la noche a la mañana.  (more…)

La prima de riesgo italiana ya es peor que la española…

Atención, atención! Se proclama a los cuatro vientos que la prima de riesgo española ya ha cotizado ligeramente mejor que la de Italia. El Gobierno y los políticos afines ya pueden añadir este dato a su «larga» lista de brotes verdes, de los que parece que nuestra economía disfruta últimamente. Este será sin duda el discurso más o menos caricaturizado que podremos escuchar durante los próximos días. Pero ¿realmente tenemos motivos para estar contentos con las cifras económicas? Para muestra un par de botones, o más bien bofetones de cruda realidad. Mirad esta simple tabla de JPMorgan: (more…)

The dangers of doping and withdrawal

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En el último lustro los bancos centrales parecían estar dispuestos a encadenar victorias en el Tour de Francia por su querencia al dopaje, en forma de fabricación de dinero electrónico de la nada. Pero el anuncio de la mera intención de comenzar a cerrar el grifo, por parte de la Reserva Federal norteamericana, en los próximos trimestres, parece haber abierto la caja de Pandora. Los efectos de dicho anuncio han ido más allá de la simple corrección del precio del Treasury americano, y los temores alcanzan también a otros bancos centrales como el inglés («MPC members were concerned by the «surprising» rise in UK government bond yields that followed Bernanke’s remarks«) o el europeo (“There is a strong correlation between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and European Treasury yields at the same maturity.”). (more…)

A question of priorities

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We are now in a phase of accommodation to chaos. The world turned upside down that summer of 2007 (I would even say that it began to do so after the 9/11 attacks on the WTC in 2001), and we have gone through a convulsive five years like few others, like very few others. And now it seems that we have become accustomed to the nonsense: to see the markets rise when the US unemployment figures worsen, because they are confident that this will mean the continuation of the infinite printing of money. Or to see bond yields fall when the FED insinuates that things are getting better and it will soon be able to take off the life support (QE) to the economy. Not to mention countless other absurd and unheard-of reactions and correlations. (more…)

The Analysts.

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Hoy leo una noticia en Expansión que prefiero tomármela a risa, pero que en realidad es para echarse a llorar, o mejor, para sacar espuma por la boca de pura indignación. La notícia dice así: «UBS retira sólo un día después su consejo de vender Red Eléctrica». La historia no es más que una muestra (la enésima) de la mediocridad de los análisis de los departamentos de entidades de banca tan altisonantes como la mismísima UBS. Pero lo más triste es que esto es extrapolable a prácticamente toda la banca. (more…)

The Cyprus Experiment: The euro is quietly falling apart.

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The dreaded abolition is here de facto the free movement of money between Eurozone countries. And it has happened as always, quietly, behind closed doors, and in the country of Mediterranean soda experiments: Cyprus. The first case to come to the New York Times forum It was Marios Loucaides, a Cypriot businessman who had the audacity to try to buy a flat in neighbouring Athens a few weeks ago.

Don’t think this was some massive purchase or a deal worth millions of euros – no. It was simply a matter of buying a modest flat for €170,000. Mr Loucaides agreed with the Athenian owner that he would transfer the amount upon his return to Cyprus, something that should be perfectly normal and routine between EU countries sharing a currency in the much-vaunted Eurozone. But no. The money could not leave the country after endless obstacles, and the sale fell through. The Athenian owner will have to find a buyer with real money – that is, euros, not Cypriot currency.

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Are we coming to our senses?

Tim Haywood es el director de inversiones y jefe de la unidad de renta fija de la gestora GAM. Y hace unos días publicó unas opiniones que nos parecen de lo más razonable que se puede leer en estos días en los que Bernanke ha convulsionado (más) el mundo financiero. Tim vino a decir lo siguiente: Bernanke ha estresado al Mercado más de lo que cabía esperar. Y que ello hace que las comunicaciones futuras por parte de la FED se vuelvan más delicadas, más complicadas de expresar y manejar. Pero las declaraciones de Bernanke fueron comedidas, lógicas y consistentes. En cambio las reacciones de los Mercados globales fueron extremas y poco fundamentadas. (more…)

This Friday, Ecofin is discussing the directive designed to steal your money from the bank.

Believe it or not, it’s true. This Friday, 21 June 2013 Ecofin will discuss the order in which the forthcoming bank seizure (there are no plans as yet to reveal the date on which the ‘corralito’ will take effect, but at least that’s something…) will affect the banks’ loyal customers. On the one hand, there is the Spanish position, which has, unsurprisingly, written its letter to the Three Kings and is trying in vain to persuade the Netherlands and Germany to guarantee all deposits exceeding €100,000. But the stance of those in charge in Europe is to treat depositors (or subscribers to any financial product that places their money on the banks’ balance sheets) on a par with senior debt bondholders. (more…)

The Beast is awakening…

By the spring of 2011, some of us had already realised that we were facing the most complex situation we had ever experienced in the markets, and indeed, 2011 was a a year of misfortune. However, this was not so much due to the results (the markets fell much more sharply in 2008), but rather to unprecedented upheavals in the financial system. That autumn, we wrote an article entitled «You can’t see the wood for the trees«, and I recommend you read it again to better understand what we are currently facing and what we will be discussing below.

By the end of 2011, however, we had enjoyed a peaceful honeymoon period that lasted for around five quarters. During this time, we never tired of telling our clients that none of the deadly problems affecting the European periphery – that is to say, all of us – had been resolved. And that the risk premium, equities and fixed income appeared to be a haven of peace solely and exclusively because the Beast was asleep. Nothing more. Well then, dear readers, the Beast is waking up, and with it the woes of our economies, the systemic imbalances and the indiscriminate market crashes. (more…)

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