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Category: Economia y finanzas

Resolving the dilemma of whether or not to go against the market.

«If there’s one thing I’ve learnt over the years, it’s that you shouldn’t go against the market«That is the blunt remark made a few days ago by a senior executive at a national bank to one of our clients. In fact, it is a phrase we have heard on many other occasions from various bank employees, and even from some savers, over the nearly three decades that we have been investing our money and that of our clients.

The question we are going to try to settle once and for all is whether it is true that, in the long run, we must stand up to Mr Market, or whether, on the contrary, we should let our investments ride out the ups and downs of the markets. And the answer may come as a surprise to more than a few: It depends on whether we are bankers or investors. Let us explain. (more…)

The Age of Central Banks

It seems that the pieces of the ‘New Normal’ jigsaw are starting to fall into place. But, as is to be expected given that this is a ‘New Normal’, the way these pieces fit together is currently far less stable and orderly than in the ‘Old Normal’. And what may seem today like a completed part of the jigsaw may, by tomorrow, once again prove to be a state of great uncertainty and chaos.

The key difference between this new era and the previous one is, of course, the size of the balance sheets of all the central banks in developed economies: the Fed, the BoE, the BoJ and, to a lesser extent so far, the ECB. The headlong rush that quantitative easing (QE) represents is driving up the market prices of virtually all assets and directly related markets. And this reality is as striking as it is fleeting, since the mass printing of money has as much influence on asset prices as it is unsustainable, given that the tap on QE will inevitably have to be turned off at some point in the not-too-distant future. (more…)

Financial Repression: A lifeline for debtors and a death sentence for investors.

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Many people will already be familiar with the term ‘financial repression’, but for most it will still be something unfamiliar – just another technical term in these times when we have learnt to talk quite naturally about subprime mortgages, deleveraging, the ‘new normal’ or the now overused term ‘stagflation’. The scenario in which we find ourselves – and in which we will continue to operate over the coming years – is one of ‘financial repression’. And this has been agreed upon by those who once dominated the economy but are now desperately trying not to drown in their own vomit – that is to say, their almost infinite debt: Europe, the USA and Japan. (more…)

Spain, recovery or lies?

We cannot ignore articles such as the one just published by Roberto Centeno in ElConfidencial.com, Neither for its forcefulness nor for its coincidence with many of the arguments that we have been giving since Cluster Family Office. Before going into the details, it is worth remembering that Centeno was CEO of companies such as Butano, Enagas, Campsa and is currently Chairman of Eneroil. He also holds a PhD in Economics from the Complutense University of Madrid and is Professor of Economics at the School of Mining Engineering of the UPM.

Although we have linked to the original article at the top of this post, we will summarise some of the arguments here. Be prepared for the traumatic shock of a few slaps of reality, such as we have been warning constantly, again and again. But as in the Matrix movie, most prefer to take the blue pill of the declarations and versions of the virtual reality of recovery, which governments try to hammer into our heads. However, we are already we recommended you to take the red pill 5 years ago. How time flies....: (more…)

How does the machinery of the economy work? Video by Ray Dalio

Here’s the 30-minute video by global macro management guru Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) has been created to explain, in a very clear and educational way, not only the economic dynamics that have led us to the current situation, but, more importantly, the roadmap for emerging from the great recession through a “graceful deleveraging”.

The video is in English (I haven’t managed to find it in Spanish or with subtitles yet) and is accompanied by some very pleasant and illustrative animations. Furthermore, its unhurried pace makes it easy to understand all the concepts explained in it. It is probably a suitable response or a different take on the famous video “Money as Debt“, which went viral a while ago. Hope you enjoy it: (more…)

The Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the RMB as a global reserve currency.

China’s new financial experiment covers an area of 29 km²: Shanghai FTZ. A «free trade zone» in which the Communist Party’s economic restrictions are lifted as if by a stroke of political policy. In this financial centre, international investors will be exempt from the investment restrictions that apply elsewhere in China. And, note this: in this artificial oasis, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB), will be freely traded, as will its interest rates!

(more…)

La prima de riesgo italiana ya es peor que la española…

Atención, atención! Se proclama a los cuatro vientos que la prima de riesgo española ya ha cotizado ligeramente mejor que la de Italia. El Gobierno y los políticos afines ya pueden añadir este dato a su «larga» lista de brotes verdes, de los que parece que nuestra economía disfruta últimamente. Este será sin duda el discurso más o menos caricaturizado que podremos escuchar durante los próximos días. Pero ¿realmente tenemos motivos para estar contentos con las cifras económicas? Para muestra un par de botones, o más bien bofetones de cruda realidad. Mirad esta simple tabla de JPMorgan: (more…)

Are we coming to our senses?

Tim Haywood is the chief investment officer and head of the fixed-income division at the asset management firm GAM. And a few days ago he published some views that strike us as among the most reasonable to be found these days, when Bernanke has (further) thrown the financial world into turmoil. Tim essentially said the following: Bernanke has put the market under more strain than might have been expected. And this means that future communications from the Fed will become more delicate, more complicated to articulate and manage. Yet Bernanke’s statements were measured, logical and consistent. By contrast, the reactions of global markets were extreme and largely unfounded. (more…)

You have to choose between financial stability and low volatility

Just this week, our friend Marc Garrigasait (who, by the way, has just launched a new fund called Panda Agriculture & Water), this article on Cotizalia, which includes the interactive chart I’ve linked to at the end; although it’s somewhat outdated and inaccurate, it provides a very revealing insight into the current state of global solvency.

A few voices such as Bill Miller's are beginning to dare to say what we have been warning about for years in articles such as «The Flight to Quality in Solvency«: that risk has taken hold of what was traditionally considered the Holy of Holies in terms of safety, that is, fixed-income securities from the most developed countries and companies. And that includes, of course, all products guaranteed by the banks (such as companies with bankrupt balance sheets), ranging from deposits to the bank’s own debt in all its forms, or the more or less Machiavellian structured products. (more…)

The growing middle class as an investment criterion.

In the world of investment, there are various strategies and criteria we can use to select the assets in which we wish to invest our money. In the equity market (although we could also apply this partially to fixed income and, to a lesser extent, to other types of assets such as commodities), we essentially have three general criteria:

  1. Analysis of companies’ key financial data: examination of balance sheets, sales figures, profits, corporate governance, etc. All of this covers past, present and future forecasts.
  2. Technical analysis: Market psychology, which involves interpreting the charts that reflect constantly changing share prices.
  3. Analysis of macroeconomic trends: A useful complement to the first criterion. (more…)

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