Crisis - Cluster Family Office

How does the machinery of the economy work? Video by Ray Dalio

Aquí tenéis el video de 30 minutos que el gurú de la gestión global macro, Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) ha creado para explicar de manera muy clara y didáctica, no sólo la dinámica económica que nos ha llevado hasta la situación actual, sino lo más importante: La hoja de ruta para salir de la gran recesión mediante un “bonito desapalancamiento”.

El video está en inglés (no lo he sabido encontrar aún en español o subtitulado) y está acompañado por unos dibujos animados muy agradables y demostrativos. Además, su ritmo pausado permite una fácil comprensión de todos los conceptos que en él se explican. Probablemente sea una respuesta adecuada o una visión distinta del famoso video “Money as Debt“, que corrió como la pólvora hace algún tiempo. Que lo disfrutéis: (more…)

First Cyprus, now Poland, tomorrow…

Me da la sensación de que, a pesar de haber sido publicada at diversos medios, ha pasado bastante desapercibida por los inversores en general. Pero la pasada semana se anunció discretamente la confiscación nada menos que de más de la mitad de los planes de pensiones privados de todos los polacos. Así es, los ahorros de toda una vida, en previsión de poder cubrir las necesidades de la vejez, reducidos a la mitad de la noche a la mañana. (more…)

La prima de riesgo italiana ya es peor que la española…

Atención, atención! Se proclama a los cuatro vientos que la prima de riesgo española ya ha cotizado ligeramente mejor que la de Italia. El Gobierno y los políticos afines ya pueden añadir este dato a su «larga» lista de brotes verdes, de los que parece que nuestra economía disfruta últimamente. Este será sin duda el discurso más o menos caricaturizado que podremos escuchar durante los próximos días. Pero ¿realmente tenemos motivos para estar contentos con las cifras económicas? Para muestra un par de botones, o más bien bofetones de cruda realidad. Mirad esta simple tabla de JPMorgan: (more…)

The dangers of doping and withdrawal

En el último lustro los bancos centrales parecían estar dispuestos a encadenar victorias en el Tour de Francia por su querencia al dopaje, en forma de fabricación de dinero electrónico de la nada. Pero el anuncio de la mera intención de comenzar a cerrar el grifo, por parte de la Reserva Federal norteamericana, en los próximos trimestres, parece haber abierto la caja de Pandora. Los efectos de dicho anuncio han ido más allá de la simple corrección del precio del Treasury americano, y los temores alcanzan también a otros bancos centrales como el inglés («MPC members were concerned by the «surprising» rise in UK government bond yields that followed Bernanke’s remarks«) o el europeo (“There is a strong correlation between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and European Treasury yields at the same maturity.”). (more…)

Recovery and stability are here... eppur si muove!

It appears that August 2013 is marking the start of the Eurozone’s economic recovery. Peripheral risk premiums are shrinking like raisins, whilst the price of German government bonds is falling (yields rising), mirroring US Treasury bonds. The political class and the establishment The Western media are hailing it as such, whilst keeping their fingers crossed that the prophecy will become a self-fulfilling one.

However, mathematics is stubborn. And so is economics. Despite the faith and the malicious or ignorant opinions of politicians and analysts, as Galileo said: e pur si muove. In other words, Spain’s deficit, its economic recession and its unpayable debt reveal the harsh reality: we are far, very far from achieving growth and regaining solvency. That is why reductions in the risk premium are nothing more than mirages in a desert of recession and deleveraging that we have barely begun to navigate. A temporary and unjustified improvement that is the result of political propaganda and the well-known inefficiency of the markets. (more…)

A question of priorities

We are now in a phase of accommodation to chaos. The world turned upside down that summer of 2007 (I would even say that it began to do so after the 9/11 attacks on the WTC in 2001), and we have gone through a convulsive five years like few others, like very few others. And now it seems that we have become accustomed to the nonsense: to see the markets rise when the US unemployment figures worsen, because they are confident that this will mean the continuation of the infinite printing of money. Or to see bond yields fall when the FED insinuates that things are getting better and it will soon be able to take off the life support (QE) to the economy. Not to mention countless other absurd and unheard-of reactions and correlations. (more…)

The Cyprus Experiment: The euro is quietly falling apart.

The dreaded abolition is here de facto the free movement of money between Eurozone countries. And it has happened as always, quietly, behind closed doors, and in the country of Mediterranean soda experiments: Cyprus. The first case to come to the New York Times forum It was Marios Loucaides, a Cypriot businessman who had the audacity to try to buy a flat in neighbouring Athens a few weeks ago.

Don’t think this was some massive purchase or a deal worth millions of euros – no. It was simply a matter of buying a modest flat for €170,000. Mr Loucaides agreed with the Athenian owner that he would transfer the amount upon his return to Cyprus, something that should be perfectly normal and routine between EU countries sharing a currency in the much-vaunted Eurozone. But no. The money could not leave the country after endless obstacles, and the sale fell through. The Athenian owner will have to find a buyer with real money – that is, euros, not Cypriot currency.

(more…)

Are we coming to our senses?

Tim Haywood es el director de inversiones y jefe de la unidad de renta fija de la gestora GAM. Y hace unos días publicó unas opiniones que nos parecen de lo más razonable que se puede leer en estos días en los que Bernanke ha convulsionado (más) el mundo financiero. Tim vino a decir lo siguiente: Bernanke ha estresado al Mercado más de lo que cabía esperar. Y que ello hace que las comunicaciones futuras por parte de la FED se vuelvan más delicadas, más complicadas de expresar y manejar. Pero las declaraciones de Bernanke fueron comedidas, lógicas y consistentes. En cambio las reacciones de los Mercados globales fueron extremas y poco fundamentadas. (more…)

This Friday, Ecofin is discussing the directive designed to steal your money from the bank.

Believe it or not, it’s true. This Friday, 21 June 2013 Ecofin will discuss the order in which the forthcoming bank seizure (there are no plans as yet to reveal the date on which the ‘corralito’ will take effect, but at least that’s something…) will affect the banks’ loyal customers. On the one hand, there is the Spanish position, which has, unsurprisingly, written its letter to the Three Kings and is trying in vain to persuade the Netherlands and Germany to guarantee all deposits exceeding €100,000. But the stance of those in charge in Europe is to treat depositors (or subscribers to any financial product that places their money on the banks’ balance sheets) on a par with senior debt bondholders. (more…)

What is happening to the gold and silver market?

As we mentioned in our previous article, «The Beast is awakening…«, let’s try to shed some light on the surprising behaviour of the precious metals market. Physical demand for gold and, above all, silver coins and bullion is skyrocketing week by week. And it is highly significant that, for the first time in history, the prices of futures, ETFs and other investment instruments not directly linked to the physical possession of gold and silver, It is currently being sold at a discount regarding actual bullion and coins. If that isn’t mistrust of the metals markets and the policies of printing fiat money, then God help us. And what’s worse, it’s almost impossible to reverse the doping of the quantitative easing provided by the Fed and the ECB, without derailing the fledgling US recovery and/or tearing the Eurozone apart into at least two pieces. (more…)

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Category: Crisis

How does the machinery of the economy work? Video by Ray Dalio

First Cyprus, now Poland, tomorrow…

La prima de riesgo italiana ya es peor que la española…

The dangers of doping and withdrawal

Recovery and stability are here... eppur si muove!

A question of priorities

The Cyprus Experiment: The euro is quietly falling apart.

Are we coming to our senses?

This Friday, Ecofin is discussing the directive designed to steal your money from the bank.

What is happening to the gold and silver market?

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(+34) 93 626 47 75

(+34) 91 794 19 82