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Category: Crisis

El Twist and Shout del Banco Popular de China

People’s Bank of China es el gigante banco central de la gigante economía del gigante país llamado China. De hecho en aquel macro-estado todo nos sobrepasa y, comparativamente, nos empequeñece en un justo y necesario ejercicio de modestia que los occidentales necesitábamos hace años. La dimensión económica de China es tal que sus decisiones políticas pueden mantear los Mercados hacia la dirección que más le convenga al Partido Comunista. Os preguntaréis qué tiene que ver esto con el título del artículo, pues ahí va la respuesta: (more…)

Bruce Berkowitz y el Valor en el sector financiero

Hoy os presentamos una auténtica perla en forma de entrevista. Se trata nada más y nada menos que de la que concedió el mejor gestor de la primera década del siglo XXI, Bruce Berkowitz, a la prestigiosa periodista financiera Consuelo Mack hace tan solo 7 días. Resulta interesantísimo leer los argumentos y convicciones de Berkowitz hoy, precisamente en plena tormenta financiera, cuando su fondo estrella Fairholme ha perdido casi un tercio de su cotización (¿valor?) desde principios de año. Un batacazo en el que muchos ven su declive como gestor, pero en el que algunos ven una grandísima oportunidad. Su entrevistadora, Mack, está considerada por la revista Money Magazine como «the best money TV host», y sus programas gozan de una enorme audiencia. Disfrutad las reflexiones de Berkowitz mientras el mundo financiero se hunde a nuestro alrededor (próximamente colgaremos la traducción íntegra al español): (more…)

Nouriel Roubini: How can we avoid a second Great Depression?

Hoy queremos comentar los argumentos que esgrime Nouriel Roubini en su artículo «Cómo prevenir una depresión» de esta semana en el blog de Reuters «The Great Debate«. Recordemos que Roubini es un prestigiosísimo economista que predijo perfectamente la gran crisis financiera de 2008, aunque en aquel momento se le tachó de agorero para arriba, ganándose el calificativo de Dr. Doom (Dr. Catástrofe). Los acontecimientos posteriores han demostrado que dicho calificativo era, lamentablemente, injustificado. (more…)

Siemens pulls its money out of French banks...

A word of warning. Today, Bloomberg has published a deeply troubling report from the Financial Times: the German multinational Siemens AG withdrew 500 million euros from a French bank last week and deposited the funds with the European Central Bank. (more…)

George Soros: Does the Euro have a future?

Yes, but no. This seems to be the direction the EU is taking with its existential doubts. An uncertain course with the pretence of treading water, buying time, hoping that the Eurozone will still be able to breathe, when the sun wants to rise over a horizon that today is still black, very black. (more…)

One less hawk at the ECB... and one less German ECB.

Let's make a very simple and brief emergency analysis of what happened in the markets and within the ECB last Thursday and Friday. As you have all seen, in unison with rumours of a Greek default, the Euro plummeted almost 3% to 1.3650 in less than 48 hours and almost 6% in 10 days. All indicators of Greek default risk were stressed, breaking all-time records. Risk premiums spread, of course, to the rest of the European periphery. Germany leaked the readiness of its bank rescue plan in the face of the imminent Greek default. And markets plunged another 4% across the board, spreading to Wall Street. Meanwhile, politicians continue to juggle grenades, and it seems that the only one lucid enough to realise the impending danger is Mr. Market. (more…)

Constitutional Reform: Necessary and also insufficient

Much is being written about the constitutional reform that is supposedly intended to limit Spain’s public deficit in the coming years. We are all seeing daily statements denouncing that we have been sold out to the markets, that the Constitution has been amended under cover of darkness and with malicious intent, that it is unacceptable for the welfare state to be subordinated to the dictates of the markets, and so on. I would like to draw particular attention to the article published on 1 September in GurusBlog with the explicit title: «The diabolical clause in the constitutional reform that hands Spain over to its creditors«. Just this once – and God forbid this should set a precedent :) – I’m going to disagree with, or perhaps qualify, some of the arguments put forward by the author, Gurus Hucky.”.
(more…)

The King is naked... and Mr. Market proclaims it.

On 7 August we published the first part of this article «The future of the European Union".«The misunderstood Mr. Market«In it, we tried to analyse what was happening to the market from an objective, fundamental and calm point of view. As you will recall, we said that the general price of companies at a global level was excessively pessimistic with respect to their fundamentals. Today, just 11 days later, markets are once again pricing in disproportionate fears about economic fundamentals, but exasperatingly justified fears about political inoperativeness. (more…)

The debt ceiling rap in the US.

Following the brilliant Hayek vs Keynes videos on first y second version, here comes the rap of the summer with lines like this: «I can afford all sorts of cars, I’ve got all sorts of set-ups; the ladies ask me how I get them, and I tell them: STIMULUS«. You can watch the video below, and the lyrics are transcribed further down. Hope you enjoy it: (more…)

The PIGS’ Disco

Below you can watch a video that adds a touch of humour to the drama surrounding the European bankruptcies. It’s a summer hit – one that some will enjoy, whilst others might find it offensive. Could it be that the truth hurts? Anyway, we’ll leave you with the video as a bit of summer weekend entertainment. The PIGS’ summer song:

«The PIGS’ hit»

Via @ritholtz

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