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Cluster Family Office Blog

Peripheral bubble: The perfect storm.

Philippe Legrain is the author of several books, such as «Open World: The truth about globalisation«He has also been and is a very influential person in EU economic policy. Not for nothing has he been a senior advisor and head of the analyst team of the Bureau of European Policy Advisers for the President of the European Commission José Manuel Durao Barroso. And as such, has led the team that has directly advised the EU's strategic economic policy.

Well, from his privileged perspective, Legrain has recently published an article in the Financial Times entitled «.«Investors are ignoring eurozone risks«This is in line with our opinion, which we have reiterated in several articles about the mirage of bonanza that the markets are quoting with respect to the European peripheral economies: «...the European Union's peripheral economies are in a state of crisis.«Mátrix and the green shoots«, «The double standards of bubbles«and many others.

Below is a free translation and commentary of Legrain's article:

Peripheral bond yields are reaching bubble proportions. Markets awash with liquidity both camouflage and exacerbate long-term economic problems and insolvency. Investors and policymakers should have learned that lesson in the pre-crisis bubble years. Yet they have gone from hysterical panic to short-sighted complacency in less than two years. (more…)

Where wisdom is a duty, ignorance is a crime.

Many bank employees try to clear their consciences regarding what happened with preference shares and other toxic products, claiming they were unaware of the inherent risks involved in those investments, which they peddled left, right and centre. Many also hide behind the excuse that the responsibility lay with their superiors, and that they were merely foot soldiers carrying out orders to sell products indiscriminately, the risks of which were concealed or ignored. And the excuse of ignorance regarding the risks posed by these products is put forward to a greater or lesser extent across the entire banking hierarchy, from private banking managers to commercial banking staff, including branch managers. But neither the hierarchy of responsibility nor ignorance absolves any of them of blame, as we shall see later. (more…)

The double standards of bubbles

We all shudder (or should shudder) when we contemplate the possibility that our money is invested in assets whose prices are at what is known as a «bubble», i.e. at levels far higher than their real intrinsic value, the result of unfounded speculation. Investing in bubbles is the mistake we all want to avoid at all costs, because if they burst, the losses will be irrecoverable or, at best, it will take decades to recover the value lost. Because, if the capacity of those assets to generate Value does not increase considerably, those prices at which we buy wildly will not occur again without the help of a new bubble on that same asset, which may never happen or take more years than our own investment life. Therefore, the losses we risk are permanent and not temporary. And the time it takes for our investments to recover from temporary price declines (which can occur in virtually any asset). is inversely proportional to the intrinsic value of those assets. Y is the big difference between investing well and investing badly.

(more…)

Russia's motives

Via the ever-recommended newsletter from John Mauldin, we have had access to an analysis – which we consider to be very interesting and revealing – by Louis-Vincent Gave, from Gavekal Research, on the reasons that have led Russia to act as it is doing in the Crimea conflict. It also helps us to understand the key factors that may determine the course of this conflict and the broader geostrategic implications arising from it. We shall try to summarise the main arguments of this analysis for you, as well as offer some reflections on them: (more…)

Mátrix and the green shoots.

Some will say that the recovery of the Spanish economy is a fact, and that to say the opposite is to be prophetic, unpatriotic or worse. Moreover, the markets momentarily endorse the solvency of the Spanish economy. Yes, those same schizophrenic, inefficient and bipolar markets that good investors know how to take advantage of in the long term. And the fact is that the Mátrix in which we live is pricing assets such as Spanish debt at the prices of when Cayenne Porsches and Audis flooded Spanish cities, in the days when there was plenty of work and credit, and a shortage of workers. The news is nothing less than that the Spanish 10-year bond is trading at a paltry 3.39%, breaking records from 2006! (more…)

From Russia with (more) Courage.

13 months ago we wrote a article in which we told you about the enormous value that existed in the Russian stock market.. In it we cited some companies that were trading at extraordinarily low earnings multiples, whose businesses were very stable and therefore had a dizzying potential for revaluation. Well, the geopolitical circumstances, i.e. the botched EU/US attempt to foment a pro-European revolution in a Ukraine at least half of which is pro-Russian, have caused the semi-war conflict to affect Moscow's stock market with sharp falls, adding even more value to some of its companies.

We should not lose sight of the fact that the conflict does not directly affect Russian territory or its economy. Or at least not as much as it does the EU itself, which is as recklessly dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies as a diver is on his oxygen tank. You will get a clearer idea of what I mean by looking at the graph at the end of this article. this Gurusblog article.

It is clear, then, that it is not Russia that has the most to lose in this conflict, but the EU. And yet the Western (US-EU) strategy, in its eagerness to incorporate Ukraine into NATO and thus advance the allied military border to the very line between Ukraine and Russia, has upset the fragile balance of the government in Kiev. A once pro-Russian government, but governing a single state, and now non-existent, unrecognised by the east and southeast (Russian-speaking) and financially bankrupt. Thus the secession of Ukraine into two antagonistic camps, pro-Russian and pro-Western, seems unstoppable. (more…)

It is not a quarter or a year. It is an entire Investment Life.

Investment gurus such as Warren Buffett have it ingrained in their very DNA: Investing is like playing any sport whilst focusing on the game itself, whereas doing so whilst focusing on the score is pure speculation. The matches, the championships and the well-deserved glory go to those who focus on the pitch – on constantly improving their strategy and competitive skills when selecting companies in which to invest – rather than on the absurd speculation of managing a digit displayed on a neon sign, which, incidentally, is as volatile as our own incompetence.

Buffet – like the rest of the world’s top multimillionaire investment gurus – never tires of repeating this over and over again, in every possible way, as in his latest annual letter, where he also discusses the few property investments he has made throughout his life. Well, few, that is, if we do not take into account that every investor, when buying shares in a company, is at the same time acquiring a proportionate share of the property assets that the company owns, of course. (more…)

Beware of Developed Markets

The party continues. Following the rallies on the American and European stock markets – particularly the Spanish one – it seems that most investors are set to stumble over the same old stumbling block once again. When? It’s impossible to say for certain, but what is certain is that the stumbling block is there and investors, giddy from such a rally, are running about like headless chickens. And what is this stumbling block that so many are set to trip over? Well, logically, it’s the valuations in developed stock markets, which are by no means cheap any longer – not to mention that they’re already starting to look expensive. Especially when we bear in mind that corporate profits are at record highs and interest rates at record lows, which inevitably brings us closer to the end of this cycle and the start of the next.

We must also distinguish between the developed European and American stock markets: the European market is facing persistent deflation, which may well continue if the ECB is forced to take extraordinary measures similar to those taken by the Fed in recent quarters. But with the spectre of solvency crises and recession looming over the periphery, this will not bode well for its stock markets. It is true that the German stock market is trading at more reasonable prices than the Spanish one, but despite its efforts to shield itself, we must not forget that we are still all in the same boat – Central Europeans, Northern Europeans and the southern periphery. And that could be a source of contagion for turmoil on European stock markets, although, logically, those in the south will bear the brunt of it, as they are at the epicentre of the financial problems and are therefore trading at levels equivalent to almost 20 years’ worth of profits. (more…)

A one-off wealth levy.

It has been almost a year since we had already warned that the council of German experts advising Chancellor Merkel recommended that the leaders of southern Europe confiscate a portion of the value of property from owners in the EU’s periphery in order to prevent the collapse of the peripheral financial system. At that time, this body – known as the «five wise men» – argued that whenever a bailout of banks or southern European states was necessary, it should be carried out internally (a «bail-in»), that is, using money from the citizens themselves living in the countries in distress. And that confiscating a proportion of the value of property was the easiest, most practical and simplest way to obtain the money needed to prevent the collapse of peripheral states and the financial system. This was because doing it the Cypriot way – by confiscating a portion of bank accounts – caused greater public alarm, and it was also easier for ‘the targets’ to avoid confiscation by transferring the money out of the country (as the better-advised Cypriots did). Property, on the other hand, is tied up; it cannot be transferred overnight to Luxembourg, Switzerland or Germany, and at the same time it is viewed more favourably to steal to confiscate property from property owners – who are presumed to have greater wealth – rather than from savers or investors who live in rented accommodation. (more…)

Resolving the dilemma of whether or not to go against the market.

«If there’s one thing I’ve learnt over the years, it’s that you shouldn’t go against the market«That is the blunt remark made a few days ago by a senior executive at a national bank to one of our clients. In fact, it is a phrase we have heard on many other occasions from various bank employees, and even from some savers, over the nearly three decades that we have been investing our money and that of our clients.

The question we are going to try to settle once and for all is whether it is true that, in the long run, we must stand up to Mr Market, or whether, on the contrary, we should let our investments ride out the ups and downs of the markets. And the answer may come as a surprise to more than a few: It depends on whether we are bankers or investors. Let us explain. (more…)

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