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El eterno dilema: ¿La bolsa bate a la renta fija a largo plazo o por el contrario el poder del interés compuesto es imbatible? Todos hemos oído y leído vehementes defensores de uno y otro lado. Son como maneras distintas, y sin embargo integristas, de vivir las inversiones. Como casi siempre, la verdad no la encontraremos en blancos y negros, sino en grises vistos con perspectiva:

http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/main.swf

Después de ver este video del WSJ tan simple y naif, creo que estamos más próximos a encontrar una respuesta al dilema: Los datos pasados son simplemente insuficientes para determinar con rigor y certeza qué estrategia nos va a dar mayor éxito financiero en el futuro. Sería demasiado fácil. Pero hay algo que este video y la mayoría de discusiones acerca de la inversión en RF y RV olvidan cuando hablan de plazos, y es algo tan obvio y sin embargo tan vital como nuestra vida inversora, de la que ya hablamos allá por el primer trimestrte del 2008 en Kaizen: El control de calidad de nuestras inversiones. De nada nos va a servir la estadística (suponiendo que fuera fiable y suficiente, que no lo es), más allá de nuestra vida inversora. Y ésta puede ser tan breve como el medio, el corto o el cortísimo plazo.

Creo que la frase que expresa mejor este concepto es la que escribimos en nuestro artículo titulado RF vs RV: «La vida inversora no es más que pequeños segmentos de gráficos a muy largo plazo.» Y ahí cabe todo, incluso arruinar dicha vida inversora en la dirección correcta. No hay segundas oportunidades, tenemos un único tren inversor en nuestra vida. Y nadie sabe cuánto va a durar su segmento en un gráfico de 150 años de dudoso rigor. A partir de aquí que siga la discusión vehemente de quién bate a quién. Aunque seguramente todos seamos batidos por nuestra propia prepotente ignorancia, que nos hará buscar fórmulas para evitar el esfuerzo de realizar el balance vital de nuestra vida inversora.

«Son los momentos de incertidumbre económica donde vuelve a aparecer el recuerdo del oro. La estabilidad monetaria que dio el patrón oro clásico está muy presente en los inversores y ahorradores de medio mundo que ven como las autoridades monetarias hacen juegos de magia con su dinero. Desde que se abandonó la Bretton Woods -lo poco que quedaba de patrón oro- los inversores y ahorradores han creído o han sentido que la mejor cobertura frente a los desaguisados de sus autoridades era el metal amarillo.

Quiero analizar con detalle este hecho, porque me parece de suma importancia. Primero quiero mencionar muy por encima que propiedades hicieron al oro como mejor dinero de todos los tiempos, y segundo lo que más nos interesa como inversores o gestores patrimoniales, es el concepto de liquidez y como el oro es el bien más líquido en una economía. Por lo tanto, acabaremos diciendo que el oro no es una inversión, si un patrón monetario -el mejor de todos los tiempos- y en última instancia es una garantía de liquidez.

No me extenderé en porque el oro es la mejor forma de dinero posible, porque no es el objetivo del artículo, pero podemos decir que el oro tiene óptimas propiedades para ser dinero: su escasez relativa, su homogeneidad, su maleabilidad, ductibilidad, su enorme divisibilidad, su facilidad de transporte, almacenamiento y conservación. Podemos afirmar rotundamente que cumple estos requisitos para ser un buen patrón monetario.

Ahora llega la que creo, es la parte más interesante del artículo, que es la pregunta de ¿por qué el oro es el bien más líquido de la economía? Este es un tema que la mayoría de economistas de las principales corrientes del pensamiento han olvidado y se han entregado plenamente a matematizar riesgos con variables de difícil estimación. Para saber porque el oro es el bien más liquido, debemos remontarnos a las teorías marginalistas de Carl Menger, Walras o Jevons, que sentaron las bases de la revolución marginalista. Diremos que la utilidad marginal de un bien decrece al aumentar su disponibilidad y crece al reducirse su disponibilidad. Es la demostración de porque los diamantes cuestan más que el agua, a pesar de que el agua sea un bien necesario para la vida y los diamantes no.

Entonces basándonos en este concepto, podemos decir que un bien es más líquido que otro cuando su utilidad marginal disminuya más lentamente. El bien más liquido de la economía sería aquel que tuviera una utilidad marginal constante, cosa que es imposible, pero podemos afirmar que el oro es el bien cuya utilidad marginal disminuye más lentamente. El concepto de liquidez se puede definir en dos dimensiones: una inter espacial, es decir, diremos que un bien es muy líquido cuando su utilidad marginal disminuya poco a poco conforme se incremente su cantidad; y de forma inter temporal, es decir, un bien es muy líquido cuando su utilidad aumenta poco a poco conforme se reduce su cantidad.

Esto debería hacer reflexionar tanto a inversores como a gestores de los riesgos de liquidez que toman en sus pool de activos. La crisis que estamos sufriendo actualmente en parte es debida por el abandono intencionado o no de estos conceptos, tanto por agentes individuales como por los agentes institucionales. La banca debería saber los riesgos que trae invertir a largo y endeudarse a corto, y más aún, sobre activos totalmente ilíquidos que a la hora de liquidación sufren importantes descuentos. La pirámide invertida de John Exter muestra claramente este concepto. Las actuales posturas sobre determinación de riesgos deberían ser meditadas y depuradas.

Entonces, una vez comentado esto, ¿podemos decir que el oro es el mejor refugio ante la inflación? La respuesta a estas alturas debería ser un NO rotundo. Primero porque el proceso de inflación orquestada por los bancos centrales en base a la expansión crediticia, beneficia más a unos que a otros, con lo cual determinados sectores pueden dar perfectamente rentabilidades superiores a la inflación y segundo y el más importante, no hay mejor refugio que tener un pool de activos invertidos en valor. Aquí es donde entra el Value Investment y nuestro amigo Benjamin Graham. No hay mejor refugio que una empresa de maquinillas de afeitar que utiliza más de medio mundo todos los días, no hay mejor refugio que tener una empresa que lleva haciendo el mejor champú para niños toda una vida y que incluso lo utilizan los adultos, no hay mejor refugio que aquel refresco que lo puedes encontrar en donde ni siquiera hay agua.

Efectivamente, queridos lectores, ese es el mayor refugio frente a la inflación que podemos tener. Debo aclarar aquí, que para todos aquellos de vosotros que vayáis a leer a Graham en The Intelligent Investor, tengáis especial cuidado en el capítulo donde habla sobre cómo protegerse de la inflación. Pero su esencia es la correcta, invertir en acciones ordinarias.

El oro como inversión solo tendría su lógica como última garantía de liquidez en un proceso de destrucción monetaria, es decir, ante una hiperinflación, ya que como hemos visto antes, es el bien más liquido de la economía y por ello, sufre menos descuento a la hora de liquidarlo.

La conclusión que el lector debería llevarse después de leer este artículo, es que la mejor forma de protegerse, es la inversión en valor, el oro ha sido y será el mejor patrón monetario de todos los tiempos y los que lo defendemos seguiremos en la brecha para devolver la soberanía al ahorrador y al consumidor de bienes y servicios. Pero debemos tener claro que son dos cosas totalmente diferentes.»

ManuelMad

A todo ello, me permito añadir que mientras mantengamos la esperanza en el Sistema, el componente especulativo del oro debe ser nuestra principal motivación. Si por el contrario perdemos toda esperanza, lo de menos será si el precio del oro sube o baja, ya que será un patrón monetario sin moneda. Y ya se sabe: Donde hay patrón, no manda marinero.

(Viene de La Febrícula del Oro (1))

Se ha comparado mucho el oro con las acciones. Aunque puede ser no significativo, hay un ejemplo que se repite mucho. En noviembre de 2005, Rick Munárriz de Motley Fool.com plantea la cuestión de si representa una mejor inversión una acción de Google o una onza de oro. En ese momento, ambas estaban a alrededor de 700 dólares. El 4 de enero de 2008, una onza de oro superó el precio de la acción de Google por un 30,77%. Al final del año, Google cerró 2008 en 307,65 dólares la acción, mientras que el oro cerró el año en 866 dólares la onza.

¿De que depende el valor del oro?. Actualmente, el precio del oro es, en última instancia, determinado, como tantos productos, por la oferta y la demanda. Pero, a diferencia de la mayoría de los demás productos básicos, el acaparamiento y la eliminación juegan un papel mucho mayor en afectar el precio, porque la mayoría de las minas de oro siguen existiendo, y pueden incrementar su producción en función del precio.

Pero dada la enorme cantidad de oro almacenado, en comparación con la producción anual mundial, que es pequeña, el precio del oro está principalmente afectado por los cambios en el sentimiento, más que cambios en la producción anual. La demanda mundial de oro no satisfecha por la producción acaba siendo satisfecha por la venta de los bancos centrales y el Fondo Monetario Internacional, que a finales del 2004 tenían el 19% del oro. El Acuerdo de Washington sobre el Oro (WAG), firmado en septiembre de 1999, limita las ventas de oro por sus miembros (Europa , Estados Unidos, Japón, Australia, el Banco de Pagos Internacionales y el Fondo Monetario Internacional) a menos de 400 toneladas al año.

Otros Bancos Centrales son compradores. Por ejemplo, a principios de 2006, China, que sólo posee el 1,3% de sus reservas en oro, anunció que estaba buscando maneras de mejorar el rendimiento de sus reservas oficiales. Algunos especuladores tienen la esperanza de que esto sea una señal de que China podría convertir algunos de sus reservas en oro, en línea con otros Bancos Centrales.

Los inversores en oro que utilizan el análisis fundamental, generalmente analizan la situación macroeconómica, que incluye los indicadores económicos internacionales, tales como tasas de crecimiento del PIB, la inflación, los tipos de interés, la productividad y los precios de la energía. Asimismo, cabe analizar también la oferta mundial de oro al año frente a su demanda.

La demanda de oro global se disparó un 38% en el primer trimestre de 2009. Hace tres años, la demanda de oro como inversión sólo fue del 10% de la demanda de oro global, y hoy es más del 30%. Eso es un aumento muy significativo en la demanda de inversión.

El problema es, sin embargo, como se apuntaba antes, que el precio de oro cambia, muchas veces, en función del sentimiento de seguridad en otras monedas y no sobre la situación macroeconómica “per se”. Se podía encontrar libros hace más de un año que predecían el fin del euro y el dólar y la supremacía del oro. O familias que invertían en francos suizos por el respaldo de las reservas en oro del Banco Nacional de Suiza (que, por cierto, ha sido uno de los grandes vendedores de oro) Por ello, si bien la producción de oro es poco probable que cambie a corto o medio plazo, la oferta y la demanda privada son muy líquidas y sujetas a cambios rápidos, a diferencia de casi todas las demás mercancías.

No debemos olvidar que si al oro le quitamos su fuerte componente especulativo, los niveles actuales son, probablemente, ya muy altos. Y la relajación paulatina del riesgo sistémico, que no de la crisis, está en el horizonte. La capitalización de la banca mundial (lenta y dificultosa) es un proceso prioritario y ya iniciado por los más capaces, a pesar de que aún hemos de ver los esqueletos de muchas entidades yaciendo a ambos lados del camino. En un escenario de banca recapitalizada y los Estados más fuertes no quebrados, con inflación y sin ella, el riesgo sistémico desaparecerá. No existe ningún histórico en el que fijarnos con un panorama como el descrito. Pero la relajación o desaparición de los factores que fortalecen el “flight-to-quality” del oro, debería ser determinante para su reversibilidad. Como siempre, el ingrediente secreto consiste en saber cuándo.

Disclosure: Estratégicamente, ni cortos ni largos…

Below is an article by someone who is set to become a regular contributor to the blog: the lawyer and lecturer at IESE, Salvador Trinxet, who also works closely with Cluster Family Office on matters of international taxation:

In an interesting article written by Graham Summers on Seeking Alpha about gold during periods of inflation and deflation. Given the current uncertainty as to whether the world will face a period of high inflation (a theory put forward by Summers) or deflation, it is interesting to examine how investment products perform in each scenario.

What Summers discovers is not that gold rises when the dollar falls (the correlation of .28 cited by Scott Reamer of Vicis Capital is not really conclusive), nor its role as a store of wealth (if the dollar collapses, gold will recover due to investors seeking a safe haven, regardless of the correlation between gold and the dollar), but its safe-haven value even during periods of deflation.

To reach this conclusion, Summer draws on Roy Jastram’s book *The Golden Constant*. The author conducted a study of the performance of gold over a 416-year period in English history (from 1560 to 1976). His conclusion is not only that, historically, gold has acted as a store of value through wars, plagues and other vicissitudes, but that this precious metal actually increased its purchasing power during periods of deflation. This finding is surprising, as it was commonly accepted that gold rose with inflation but fell during deflation. Yet historically, this has not exactly been the case.

In addition to the fact that doubts about the value of the US dollar are beginning to affect the general public on a widespread basis, the conclusion of Summers’ article is that gold will perform well in any future scenario, regardless of whether it is inflationary or deflationary. If the dollar changes and falls to a low point, gold will benefit greatly from a flight to quality or by taking on the role of a non-regulatory currency.

If our readers will allow us, we would like to explore the merits of investing in gold in a little more detail.

It is true that for centuries, people have used gold as a store of wealth and as a hedge against market fluctuations, the depreciation of fiat currency and other macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Perhaps no other market in the world has had the universal appeal of the gold market. Through shares in gold mining companies, ETFs and other gold-based financial instruments, anyone can invest in gold. For those who want physical gold, a German company, T G–Gold-Super-Markt, plans to install vending machines at 500 locations. The first vending machine, on a trial basis, has been installed at Frankfurt Airport (photo above). In Switzerland, it is possible to buy gold bars at post offices.

Investment guides repeatedly emphasise that investment success hinges on diversification and risk management. It’s the old adage of “not putting all your eggs in one basket”. It seems clear that a well-balanced portfolio should include a wide range of assets. But what is not so clear is determining what proportion should be allocated to each asset class. Some gold specialists, such as Mark O’Byrne, believe that an investor should allocate 10–15 per cent of their liquid assets to gold-related investments. The fact is, there are so many ways to invest in gold that, in principle, depending on the chosen method, it should suit speculators, investors and savers alike, as well as those with short-, medium- or long-term investment horizons.

Some even argue that, just as the family home should not be regarded as an investment in itself, physical gold (bullion) is not an investment but a kind of insurance policy, and that it should not be traded but rather form the foundation of the family’s wealth. Is that true?

(to be continued…)

It is common for human beings to have a distorted perception of reality. We are just that subjective and easily influenced – what can you do? And whilst the financial media constantly talk about inflationary fears and we structure our investments so that imminent hyperinflation does not erode the value of our assets even further, we often forget to look around us.

If we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, what we see is a bleak deflationary scenario. There is virtually not a single expansionary macroeconomic indicator, and almost all the ratios are below zero. GDP, CPI and employment are three highly significant indicators of what is currently happening across almost the entire world. Below is a chart showing changes in US payrolls over a three-month period, expressed as an annualised rate:

If we bear in mind that inflation is usually lower than the figure used for pay rises, it seems clear that 2009 has plunged headlong into deflation. Why are the official CPI figures less deflationary? Well, because the items that carry the greatest weight – and which depend on the state – are being artificially inflated at breakneck speed to prevent a free fall in prices. Only first-round inflation, triggered by a rise in oil prices – which hit us hard last summer – can mask the fall in prices that is already looming on the horizon. And this deflation is here to stay as long as the massive cash injections fail to fill the bottomless pits of the debt that has been created. Only when that happens will we see inflation rise, which may well quickly turn into hyperinflation. You can read Ethan Block’s simple but useful explanation of inflation:

http://vimeo.com/moogaloop.swf?clip_id=2782169&server=vimeo.com&show_title=1&show_byline=1&show_portrait=0&color=f5cc38&fullscreen=1

The Inflation Monster – Episode #4 from The Way to Build Wealth on Vimeo.

It is vital to realise the importance of investing wisely, even in times such as those we are now beginning to experience, when deflation increases the purchasing power of our assets. But be careful: this applies only to those assets that are protected against a loss of value. And this concept is of the utmost importance, as our clients are well aware. We are facing a period in which making our investments and structuring our wealth correctly, with sound advice, will have a multiplier effect in the coming years. Unfortunately, however, the opposite is also true, and in fact very few people are managing to protect their wealth from loss of value. Most take mental refuge in the hope that this nightmare will end, so that everything can go back to the way it was before. But what many refuse to admit is that the way things were before was a dream.

The strategies for managing wealth in deflation and inflation are, logically, very different, and it is disastrous not to be able to distinguish the correct decision at any given time. Government cash injections (machines for printing money, but not for earning it) have so many zeros after them that it seems as though deflation’s days are numbered. But hyperinflation is probably not as close as some people think. And to flood the desert, it will take a massive injection of funds, and for longer than some realise. As things stand, the world is in deflation, with all that this entails, and with an exceptional opportunity at our fingertips for our wealth to grow spectacularly.

According to the tabloid newspaper The Sun, a gang of five elderly men have cruelly tortured their stockbroker in Germany. They are aged between 60 and 79, and have no known aliases, although their grandchildren call them yayos.

They invested around 2.5 million euros in a booming property market in Florida. James Amburn, their American investment adviser based in Bavaria and owner of Digitalglobalnet, invested all their money in brand-new property developments, property deals and buy-and-sell transactions that generated, at the very least, capital gains equivalent to two lifetimes’ worth of salaries. I believe there were also people in Spain who got involved in this and stopped working, whilst mocking those who weren’t getting ahead like them. Some also did the same with shares…

But let’s get back to our «dear old folks». They waited for their victim as he left a café, and if James had known he was going to bump into them head-on, he would have gone out the back door, or would have «bent down to pick up a pencil from under the table», as our dear Carola. There were those old folks again, asking him what was happening with their investments in Florida. Oh!How awful! -thought James- It’s remarkable how well someone younger than them understands that that’s just how the markets work – that sometimes you lose and sometimes you win. And these apprentices at Cocoon They’re really going to town on it… as if their children – who are just like vultures – weren’t going to squander it all anyway. Anyway, making the best of a bad situation, James greeted them with a cordial «How's it going, lads? Out for a bit?«.

The response was a blow with the bumper of one of the elderly men’s Audis, which immobilised James long enough for them to subdue and abduct him. They kept him locked up for four days in one of their homes, with his hands and feet bound. The torture, beatings, death threats and cigarette burns were a constant nightmare. The elderly men thought that Amburn it was a A shoddy version of Madoff, and that by torturing him they might get their money back. But that wasn’t the case. James is not an alleged fraudster (and if he is, he has the resilience of a true professional), but an alleged unscrupulous adviser, like so many others. We can see him in this photo after being released by the police:

After four days of hell, during which he was given nothing but a couple of bowls of soup to keep him conscious, James has let his customers down, yet again. He told them that if they wanted their money back, they would have to let him send a fax to his bank in Switzerland, where allegedly had the money from his grandparents, who, allegedly He never invested in Florida. Naturally, that letter alerted the police, who raided the house and arrested: Roland (74) and his wife Seiglinde (79); Gerhard (63) and his wife Iris (66), both retired doctors; and a certain Willy, aged 60, the youngest of the group. All of them face a 15-year prison sentence for kidnapping and torture.

Their lawyers will have to be court-appointed unless the children – those «vultures» – see fit to pay for a good private defence for their parents, in the face of accusations from the person who has deprived them of their inheritance.

These things really make you think, don’t they?

Let’s talk exclusively about the financial aspect of wealth. Just this once, and without setting a precedent. Let’s focus solely on stock market investments and the future – which is more uncertain than ever – that investors are facing.

The current market landscape is, and will remain in the coming years, more turbulent than ever. And in the times ahead, it will be very common to see meteoric rises in various forms of investment (sectors, strategies, management styles, trading techniques…), as well as spectacular crashes and the failure of funds and managers who prove themselves incompetent in the face of the a new world (which we already warned about in 2007) of the investment. And that makes sense, since you have to stoke the fire to see flames. Whilst some achieve consistently good results (for example, in unit trusts) or stand out as outstanding investors (such as Buffett), many others must remain mediocre, whilst still others must be wiped off the map as the multi-bubbles – which will be created by the massive injections of money thrown into the fray – burst here and there.

Over the next few years, we are going to see the harsh reality demonstrated by the Monte Carlo simulation and that only the truly great manage to outperform consistently over time. The shortcomings caused by the widespread availability of funds managed by incompetent people will be laid bare, as every small bank and non-bank fund manager has, in recent years, set up its own investment funds using «the cream of the crop» from its limited staff. Managers who shone somewhat during the boom years but are limited in ability and experience (some of them, not all), and whose shortcomings will be painfully exposed in the complex times that lie ahead. All of them with loaded guns in their hands which, in some cases, will wipe out the savings of those who placed their trust in the false glamour of their mediocrity during these crazy last 20 years (comparable to the Roaring Twenties). It is no surprise that almost all bank customers have at some point heard their bank manager say things along the lines of: The fund you’ve asked me about is on a different platform to the one we use (either it’s not available, or the fees are too high, etc.), but we have another one that’s just as good or even better – you’re going to love it..

The rise of self-made, self-taught investors; the flood of courses and publications; investment training and pseudo-training of all kinds; and the globalisation of all this via the internet – whilst it has brought benefits in a few honourable exceptions – has done, and will continue to do, the rest. The medium-term result of this phenomenon: the ‘Best’ – with a capital ‘B’ – will triumph, those who possess the top managers stable with a distinguished track record, rigorous, cycle-proof methodologies, agility and brilliant intuition. Only the truly Great – in the broadest sense of the word – will be able to remain in their respective top quartiles over the coming years. And that universal law of continuity sustainable in the long term in the first quartile, will be more enlightening than ever in a turbulent situation such as the one we are facing.

The past belonged to them and, above all, the future belongs to them. But to all of them? No. The world has changed in many ways, and there are also various reasons to expect that the core future success changes hands more often than might be expected. For example:

• The rise in popularity of ETFs, which is leading to the homogenisation of the stock market performance of large, medium and small companies. This chart provides a clear example of the so-called «me-too» strategy: iShares Russell 1000 Index (IWB), iShares Russell 3000 Index (IWV), iShares S&P MidCap 400 Index (IJH), iShares Russell Midcap Index (IWR) and finally iShares S&P; SmallCap 600 Index (IJR).
• Supply and demand: When institutional investors and ETFs focus on large-caps, it is more difficult for stock pickers «author's»to achieve success in having their value recognised. It is, at the very least, a slower process, although, on the other hand, large value funds with a stock-picking strategy are also becoming more popular.".
• Results and systems are becoming shorter-lived due to the globalisation of information. We could say that market inefficiency decreases in proportion to the widespread adoption of screenings or the largest number of Dow Dogs (Dogs of the Dow). Although I would prefer to think that it is precisely these and other popularised theories that make the market inefficient when it comes to the proper search for value. Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
• A depressing environment could reduce (or at least delay) the chances of success for those who achieved it through a strategy buy and hold during periods of economic expansion.
  
• On the other hand, a prolonged economic recession could well be an ideal scenario for the search more competent Value.
  

In short, social changes that are affecting the world of investment. But it seems clear that globalisation is creating more and more uncontrollable disruptions to traditional, purist systems. Whoever can weigh up the most unpredictable factors, whoever can navigate best amidst the chaos, will hold the future in their hands. But in a minefield such as the one before us, it is better to go hand in hand with one of the Greats than to follow a mediocre figure to whom Monte Carlo granted a moment of glory before the summer of 2007.

There are almost a thousand ETFs which are available on the market, catering to all tastes and in all sizes. But the most influential players in the market are, of course, those with the largest asset volumes. Here are the top 10:

Recently we have seen how Pau Gasol managed to reach the top in the world of basketball. Watching news about this achievement, I happened to come across the film: «The whites don't know how to put it in«which is a basketball movie in which two hustlers try to pull off the heist of their lives.