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Public electronic money and its incompatibility with the concept of money.

Our previous article in which fictional, almost cinematic alternatives to the use of money were put forward, has sparked interesting comments on the possibility (or impossibility) of replacing money as we know it. ManuelMad, now a regular contributor to this blog, has been kind enough to send us this article in which he debunks Andrea von Roth’s proposal:

«In these times of economic – and theoretical – crisis, many have jumped on the bandwagon of an electronic monetary system. In particular, theorists from the Marxist school, who, having realised that a system without prices leads to the impossibility of economic calculation, that is to say, to the impossibility of entrepreneurs or planning bureaucrats estimating future prices, have realised that the creation of public, electronic money is the solution to the ‘top-hatted bankers’. Once again, they demonstrate the flaws in their theory and, above all, their fatal arrogance. These social engineers, with master’s degrees from some university hardly worthy of the proletariat, intend to control people’s daily lives through methods they claim are scientific. All in the name of the common good. They fail to realise that their policies will be determined on the basis of their value judgements—that is to say, on their individual and personal interests. There is no such thing as this supposed collective good in any of their actions.

Following this introduction, I invite you to delve into the wonderful world of money. Money fulfils two fundamental functions in the economy: preserving value and serving as a medium of exchange; therefore, the object intended to serve this purpose will be the one that possesses the quality of being the most liquid asset in the economy. It is worth clarifying that money does not arise from any social contract, nor is it created by the state, as some seem to think; rather, it is society that determines which assets are the most liquid through subjective judgements in a process that knows no end. With regard to liquidity I’ve already spoken about this here for anyone who would like a broader overview of it.

The idea of legal tender, whether under the current monetary system or a fully electronic one, undermines the concept of money. This system forces the acceptance of money as a means of payment at its face value. This triggers Gresham’s Law, which states that bad money drives out good.

An electronic monetary system replicates the weaknesses of the current system and, worse still, encourages further fraudulent behaviour. Indeed, a public electronic system with legal tender status would displace sound currency and impose unsound currency, just as the current monetary system does. Economic agents would not be able to choose which asset is more liquid; instead, this would be imposed by decree. Furthermore, the fundamental problem is ignored: the current system, based on fractional reserve banking, is designed to increase the power of politicians and bankers, whilst the population suffers from inflation; and the process of credit expansion, unsupported by real savings, leads economic agents to make disastrous investment errors, thereby jeopardising the system’s solvency.

None of this would be possible were it not for a central bank acting as a lender of last resort and backed by the state through deposit guarantee schemes, which “utopically” underpin this fraudulent activity. As history has shown, all such measures ultimately fall short, leaving no alternative but to recapitalise through debt and higher taxes.

If such public institutions did not exist, the very nature of banking would lead to the principle of prudence. No one here is suggesting that banking fraud would be eradicated, but let us not forget that a banker is nothing more than a businessman who wishes to make money and thrive in the market for as long as possible. Under such a system, the only option is to serve their customers’ needs faithfully. No one prospers by bankrupting their creditors or failing to meet their obligations, as happens in the current system or would happen in a public electronic system.

We can surmise that under a private system, policies and liquidity ratios will be much more conservative and, most importantly, bankers will once again be held accountable for their debts and contractual obligations – something they are not at present and would not be under a public electronic system either.

In a private currency system, banks that expand the money supply beyond their available funds are running the risk of going bankrupt due to insolvency. The proposed electronic system means that the only incentive is to expand the money supply, thereby jeopardising the entire system with the risk of insolvency. Furthermore, it prevents individuals from leaving the system by withdrawing their deposits.

We must be clear that the state has not developed any technology or theory for issuing optimal money; what is optimal is determined by economic agents. The liquidity of an asset is not determined by the state, but by economic agents through their personal assessments and judgements. The state has merely systematically eroded our purchasing power through laws on legal tender, both as a means of raising revenue and as a way of enriching the political and banking elite.

As we have seen, the electronic system would lead to more abuses being committed than is currently the case, as it encourages the infinite expansion of the money supply, which would undermine all arguments regarding stability, distort prices, create massive bubbles, prevent individuals from escaping this trap, and institutionalise crime by stripping people of their money’s purchasing power.

»The solution, therefore, is not public money with legal tender status; the solution is the free market and private money subject to the forces of supply and demand among consumers.’

Thank you very much, ManuelMad; as always, a fascinating insight.

Fried Anchovies (10). The New Economic Paradigm.

We have received another interesting comment that we would like to publish as an article, both because of its content and its unusual origin. It was sent to us signed by Andrea Paredes von Roth, whom we thank for her opinion, even though we do not share it. The comment reads as follows, verbatim:

The New Economic Paradigm:

A Spiritual/Conscious Society/
United / and with no physical currency. Instead, each person is issued with a chip (digital currency)

BENEFITS:

1. It does away with money and the need to print paper money

2. Put an end to irresponsible, unfair and illegal speculation
banks listed on the International Stock Exchange.

3. It guarantees absolute control over the wealth of humankind
and the proper payment of taxes to the international tax authorities

4. Facilitates economic and commercial transactions to such an extent that
never before seen

5. It abolishes the various existing international currencies and currencies
in the world today, enabling fair prices to be set for all
man-made products, regardless of where they are,
region or “country” in which they are manufactured.

6. It enables the planning of a global economy based on value
the actual state of the existing means of production and their capacity to
production. Or, to put it another way, planning that is unrelated to the
inflation and the problems it causes, economic speculation
individual, private, local and regional – to give a few examples –

ON THE SOCIAL FRONT:

1. Put an end to the economic empires of organised crime, which
has no room to manoeuvre within the system, let alone to
to invest, conceal or launder their criminal proceeds.

2. It enables the eradication and destruction of drug trafficking, which would not have
access to cash and, consequently, to their commercial capabilities.
(Drugs would become a commodity that nobody can buy or
to buy, as there is no monetary equivalent).

3. Put an end to muggings and armed robberies, as there is no money
to steal, thereby greatly reducing crime and the
crime.

This is the SOLUTION for the world and there is NO other!!

On other planets and in other galaxies, money does NOT exist. We must move on to the third dimension.

Andrea von Roth
Economist, MBA, Metaphysics
www.monedamanagement.com

We find this a rather bold comment, one with which it is difficult to agree. It contains many highly debatable assertions and proposals that would be difficult to put into practice. You forget, Andrea – amongst other things – that there would always be a black economy involving surprising forms of currency. And what appears to be a virtue would probably, in reality, turn out to be more of a hindrance. Corruption can undermine almost any system, particularly the most idealistic ones. But your proposal is highly commendable and forward-thinking, which is why we felt it was appropriate to give it greater visibility.

However, I am surprised that you put forward such spiritual and mindful ideas, that you claim your proposal «…ensures absolute control over the wealth of humankind and the proper payment of taxes to the international tax authorities…«, whilst at the same time offering services on your website such as the creation of ad hoc banks to carry out opaque transactions shielded by tax havens. Surprising, but of course perfectly legal.”.

In any case, thank you for reading, for your support and your suggestions. And I sincerely wish you all the best in your career as well professional tennis player.

P.S. I absolutely loved your signature: «Economist, MBA, Metaphysician». I’ll make a note of that ;).

Land however you can.

Uno de los artículos que recuerdo con más cariño es el titulado Fasten your seatbelts, en el que comparábamos la situación de la economía mundial con la de un vuelo con problemas técnicos. Lo escribimos 3 días después del 11-S de 2007, después de vivir el aniversario potencialmente más peligroso después de los atentados del 2001. En un momento en que la economía mundial se colapsaba y el suelo se desvanecía bajo los pies del Sistema, sin saber a dónde iríamos a parar. Leedlo y después os comento dónde veo la situación actual:

Aunque sea una obviedad es importante constatar que ya estamos al final de la jornada americana de viernes 14 de septiembre de 2007. Es decir, retomando los escenarios posibles que definíamos en El mito de las Bin Laden Optios y la responsabilidad del investor:

«si en los próximos días, como es de esperar, no tenemos ningún sobresalto terrorista de orden mundial, seguiremos aprovechando las oportunidades actuales y tratando de cicatrizar lentamente las heridas de la amenaza de credit crunch.»

Parece que la cicatrización está todavía muy lejos aunque, como decíamos en ese mismo artículo, el escenario se podía complicar mucho más en estas fechas tan delicadas.

La economía global está pasando por unos momentos de tensión como los que sufren los ocupantes de un avión cuando los pilotos detectan anomalías en pleno vuelo. Se ha abandonado repentinamente la placidez de un trayecto donde la comodidad había hecho olvidar al pasaje y a la tripulación que estaban a 10.000 metros de altura, a una velocidad de 950 km/h y con una temperatura exterior de 25 grados bajo cero.

Muchos ocupantes ahora se percatan de que viajan en una nave con muchas horas de vuelo en sus alas y motores, cuyos materiales padecen una fatiga muy importante y que, como siempre, va cargada hasta los topes de pasajeros y equipajes. La extrema optimización económica del aparato y la omisión de las revisiones no estrictamente imprescindibles, tal vez hayan podido ser los causantes de las disfunciones que ahora preocupan y lamentan muchos. Demasiado tarde. Ahora lo único útil es mantener la calma y afrontar la situación con rigor, frialdad, inteligencia y entereza.

A pesar de que algún pasajero ha entrado en pánico, la mayoría siguen conservando la calma. En realidad la situación parece controlada por los tripulantes, y aunque siguen encendidos algunos indicadores de alarma, los sistemas vitales del avión siguen funcionando correctamente. El ambiente en la cabina es tenso porque las alertas se han ido encendiendo progresivamente y, aunque de momento la situación está muy controlada, nadie sabe qué indicador puede empezar a sonar en cualquier momento. Son anomalías que se han producido en cadena, algunas sin ninguna importancia y otras que merecen la atención serena pero constante de los pilotos. Una cosa está clara, el avión tiene problemas y hay que desviar el aparato de su ruta inicial. Aunque algún inconsciente sigue obstinado en querer llegar al destino en la hora prevista para no perder ni un sólo minuto de unas vacaciones todo incluido que pagará en cómodos plazos. Pero la realidad es muy distinta.

Los pilotos han modificado ya el rumbo, la velocidad y la altura adaptando técnicamente el avión y gestionando los recursos mecánicos de forma eficiente para no sobrecargar peligrosamente los sistemas que todavía funcionan sin problemas. Con los sistemas que la nave conserva se intentará alcanzar el aeropuerto más próximo donde poder aterrizar y realizar una revisión técnica exhaustiva. Si lo consiguen, esperemos que esta vez la compañía exija todos los recambios necesarios y haga el esfuerzo económico que no hizo cuando debía. Aunque esa nueva política suponga una subida de precios y algunos de sus actuales clientes deban dejar de volar tan a menudo.

Con un destino más cercano, altura y velocidad menor, esperan evitar cualquier desgracia y que los ocupantes puedan descender del avión sin sufrir ningún daño mas que los inconvenientes propios de modificar radicalmente los planes de todos ellos. Pero para ello hay que conservar la mecánica, la serenidad, que la tripulación actúe con rigor y profesionalidad, y esperar que no se produzcan nuevas averías que afecten los sistemas vitales del viejo y sobreexplotado aparato.

La compañía no hizo los deberes en su momento y perdió el rigor económico exigible para el mantenimiento de la nave; los pasajeros gastaron en caprichos efímeros lo que ahorraron volando a bajo coste y abusaron del sobrepeso en su equipaje; incluso alguna azafata abandonó sus obligaciones en plena crisis para gritar histérica y dificultar la tarea del resto de ocupantes responsables. Esperemos que la mayoría siga haciendo lo correcto y que los ocupantes sólo tengan que abandonar sus planes iniciales. Deberán adaptarse a un radical cambio de rumbo con una escala forzosa, con sus múltiples inconvenientes y pérdidas económicas. Aunque esperemos que tan sólo sea un desagradable cambio de planes y salvemos lo verdaderamente importante.

Como decíamos al principio, aunque sea una obviedad es importante constatar que ya estamos al final de la jornada americana de viernes 14 de septiembre de 2007. Seguiremos aprovechando las oportunidades que hay en toda crisis, adaptándonos lo mejor posible a los nuevos escenarios e intentando reconducir la situación sin dañar gravemente los sistemas vitales de nuestra economía.

Personalmente creo que en esta segunda mitad de 2009 y durante al menos todo el 2010 efectuaremos el aterrizaje forzoso, y es cuando vamos a ver y sufrir las consecuencias de la situación en la que estamos inmersos. Una vez hayamos conseguido parar, veremos cuánto daño nos hemos hecho y cuántos años tardaremos en reparar el aparato para poder volver a volar con seguridad. Ojalá el aterrizaje terminase como el del video, sólo con daños materiales.

La próxima semana trataremos un tema que últimamente se está comentando mucho…

Crisis?…What crisis?

En Junio de 2007 se intuíamos que algo gordo estaba a punto de cernirse sobre todos nosotros y así lo escribimos en un artículo. Sin embargo la banca seguía en el verano de hace dos años ofreciendo facilidades e incentivos para que la clase media se «empufase» más y más (como dijo Echevarri en un comentario al artículo en aquel momento). Al cabo de año y medio escribimos otro titulado «Do Not Disturbios«, cuyo link os pegamos al final para que podáis comparar el cambio de escenario sufrido. Os dejo con Crisis What Crisis? escrito el 23 de Junio de 2007:

“Things are really bad”. This is the refrain we are hearing every day in every corner of society, across all sectors and economic strata, with the exception of the very highest. Moreover, what began as a murmur amongst the most pessimistic and/or alarmist voices has gradually in crescendo until it has become a rallying cry today. Soon to be heart-wrenching.

Some are predicting a serious economic crisis that could lead to a financial collapse. There are those who talk about the future “corralito” Spanish. Those not-so-distant and recurring times when Argentinians would pack their savings into suitcases, briefcases and rucksacks to cross the Río de la Plata (the ‘charco’) in search of safe investments in their nearest paradise: Uruguay. That crisis in the neighbouring giant gave a further boost to the already luxurious coastal town of Punta del Este, a few kilometres from Montevideo – the Marbella of wealthy Argentines and Brazilians. Time will tell, but I sincerely believe we are a long way from that scenario.

Before the economic and financial system suffers structural damage that threatens its very survival, there is a long and painful road ahead: society still has plenty of room to become even poorer. By this we mean that we are still a long way from reaching the levels of “social suffering” seen in those South American countries. Although, unfortunately, the gap is narrowing.

The economic prosperity we enjoyed until very recently is still fresh in our minds: holidays, investment, consumer spending in general and optimism. The term was coined a person earning a thousand as the epitome of the final link in our financial system. Below this lies marginal and minority poverty – though that does not make it any more acceptable. But in recent times – in recent months, I would say – the situation has been deteriorating at a dizzying pace. Pessimism has replaced joy; what little consumption remains is more compulsive than rational. The banks’ encouragement of consumption and the consolidation of loans in times like these strikes me as even more sickening. The people on a thousand-euro monthly salary are starting to be the envy of quite a few people. Just a few months ago, people were still debating whether or not there was a property crisis, or whether it was simply a deceleration in the sector’s growth. Today it is the voice of the people and tomorrow, perhaps, history. Something is changing for most people, and quickly too.

The anchoring effect which applies lucidly Fernan2 The focus on markets and property in his post also misleads us psychologically when it comes to analysing the current situation and, above all, the economic development of our society. Our psychological attachment to the prosperity of recent times distorts our perception of reality. Yet, on the whole, the financial situation of the majority of the population is getting worse day by day.

Those who analyse the situation with a degree of discernment and speak of playpens, they thus attribute the difficulties to the financial system. According to them, the economy could suffer severely from the excesses of the property bubble, the banks could be overwhelmed and the state rendered incapable. No, gentlemen, the first on the list and those most likely to suffer in this scenario are ordinary citizens. In other words, the majority. Perhaps their attachment to the former welfare state is misleading them, but before the financial system begins to falter, the personal finances of ordinary citizens will deteriorate as far as necessary.

Afortunadamente todavía hay mucho margen hasta que nuestra sociedad se equipare al malestar existente en Sudamérica. Aquí todavía los ricos pueden circular por las calles con Mercedes y BMW, incluso con Porsches y Ferraris. En Brasil ningún millonario se atreve a dejarse ver con algo más ostentoso que un Passat, se pueden adivinar muchos coches medios con chófer y el asiento del acompañante ocupado. Los secuestros express todavía son incipientes en España, y las viviendas unifamiliares aún están habitadas sin tener que pertenecer a condominios vallados, con barreras de acceso y guardias de seguridad armados en sus casetas al más oscuro estilo Checkpoint Charlie, as is the case in most of the southern hemisphere.

It is true that we are beginning to hear about these ‘express’ kidnappings in our society, that burglaries – both violent and non-violent – in detached houses are now commonplace, and that crime in general is on the rise. However, these are not public order problems caused by a relaxation of security measures, but rather by the increase in need of certain sections of the population. Immigration does not help in this regard either, and the ‘state of discontent’ from which they fled seems to be growing ever closer to our now-longed-for ‘welfare state’.

But “don’t worry”, the blood of everyone It won’t reach the river. Our financial system is not in mortal danger as long as there is scope for further social deprivation. Unfortunately, that’s just the way it is. But the anchor effect In good times, it helps us look the other way. As he said, Supetramp in 1975: Crisis? What Crisis?

El 4 de Febrero de 2009 escribimos el siguiente artículo: Do Not «Disturbios» Y algunos lo tacharon de agorero.

Borrow in moderation (and II)

(Continued from yesterday)

The compound interest of 100 € working financially correctly saved at the age of 25 means more than 800 of saving effort at the age of 50!!! Even deducting inflation, the investment effort not made during our first years of productivity will be so expensive in our maturity and old age that it will be unbearable for most people who start accumulating productive assets in their thirties or forties.

I am not talking about pension plans but about well-advised and diversified investments in optimised fixed income, real estate, real estate and other investments. profitable and with good rallies appreciation; and judicious and very moderate equities. Although of course a pension or savings plan taken out at 40 is better than nothing, it will only palliate the coming famine and, of course, condemn the descendants to follow the rat race by relays.

Your money should be used to lend it to others, and they should work with it. Logically, we should not do this ourselves, but through the purchase of financial products that are carefully tailored to our profile. For this delicate selection, we must be well advised by someone who teaches us how to do it while guiding us, and who does not simply sell us products (this is easy to say and almost impossible to find, but there are some). In return you will get more money (corporate or sovereign bonds, for example). This is the difference between producing in exchange for hours of work and lending your assets so that others can produce. At the beginning of our lives everything we earn we have personally produced, and gradually we must lend a greater proportion of our money so that others can produce. Our focus should be on reversing the initial sequence as soon as possible. Once we have achieved this, it is our own choice whether to continue working or to do what we really want to do. There will be those who prefer not to do it any more, it is a question of calculation and the will to leave the heirs in one situation or another. Freedom in capital letters. Paradoxically often Working without the pressure of remuneration leads to an even higher income if it is done with rigour and honesty, I can assure you.

Only cicadas should be able to live happily depending on an income generated by a work activity that can be truncated at any time. at any time of our lives for all eternity imponderables, In exchange for a progression (or regression!) that only serves us to go on better holidays, have a more expensive car or a house that will take us more years to pay for. Although when we are about to do so, we will exchange it for a bigger one or we will buy a second or third home for the bank.

My advice to those who, because of their working conditions, have a modest income, is to make an effort to save and invest even the smallest amount. The strictly dispensable, non-vital amount that would allow us to live a step higher than last year. This seemingly insignificant amount should invert as soon as possible in a somewhat riskier but well-advised manner. And above all, maintain investment rigour in future years, reducing risk in proportion to the total volume available over time. All of this is done with the help of a good counselor and not from financial advisors or, of course, bankers. The strategy must be tailored to each case like a tailor-made suit, haute couture if possible, even if we have little fabric.

Smoking kills. Drink in moderation. Endéudate with moderation and judgement. It is your responsibility. It should be warned in banking and consumer advertising. Unfortunately there is no other way to live life in the medium and long term. What is the point of bread for today... if we all hope to grow old?

Borrow in moderation (I).

Continuing with the healthy exercise of re-reading articles published years ago, we have come across a gem written months before the credit bubble burst. Back when no one had even considered the possibility that the monetary system—borrowed from the future and spent extravagantly in the present—might be unsustainable. Back then, in the spring of 2007, even the most foolish person was making a fortune virtually on the stock market or through property speculation. What sense did the relationship between wealth and production make back then, if everyone was inflating profits with borrowed money brought in from the future? Foolish indeed.

Things are finally falling into place, and we’ve moved on from foolish the last to They're all idiots, every last one of them. As the article, written on 20 April 2007, is quite long, we will be publishing it between today and tomorrow. I’ll leave you with «By the time you’re 30, it’s too late.« Or »Take on debt in moderation. It’s your responsibility.”:

Surely we can almost all agree that during our unpredictable lives we should try to accumulate assets that will allow us to reach the end of our lives with a decent financial stability. Growing old, falling ill and dying are unavoidable stages in our lives. Although, if we think about it, we can avoid old age if we die young, and even illness if we die accidentally. But in view of this, I prefer to cling to the hope of growing old and getting sick before I die.

All this in a scenario of financial comfort is more bearable. Especially because of the way you will be treated by those around you if they are waiting for a more or less substantial inheritance. We all have close cases of people who have come to their decline depending on the charity of others, be they family, friends or the State itself. Although I could not say which of these is less reliable, I would venture to establish Friends as the most stable plank to hold on to if one has maintained an honest and noble life trajectory, which is rare.

Most realise this need for financial foresight when it is too late. They rely solely on their ability to produce an income. via The banks kindly see to it that an individual can greedily consume goods far in excess of his or her productive capacity. The banks kindly see to it that an individual can greedily consume goods far in excess of his or her productive capacity. Even beyond what could The state would be able to produce healthy working people until the age of 65 and then be supported by the state. Even in these ideal circumstances, it would never be able to generate as much as the banks can. are The limit of indebtedness should be set by ourselves, not by the companies that live by mortgaging all our time and productivity two times over. The limit of indebtedness should be set by ourselves, not by the companies that live by mortgaging all our time and productivity multiplied by 2. And even so, moderate indebtedness should only be assumed as a depreciable investment and not for the purchase of leisure consumables. You will find some amusing situations in the novel «El vendedor de tiempo» by F. Trías De Bes (http://www.empresaactiva.com), which refer to the aberration of mortgaging one's entire life time for an asset, even if it is one's own home.

It is true that most people never manage to break out of the vicious circle of living at the same rate at which they are able to progress. This condemns them to depend on the income generated by their work throughout their productive lives, and only live off the state in old age, something that is increasingly evident that is not going to happen. succeed them to our generation of 40-somethings and, of course, to future generations. It doesn't matter if we are talking about an office worker with a salary of 25.000 eur/year or a high-earning professional earning over 100,000 eur/year. If they live life to the full and don’t Prevent an accumulation of productive assets over the years, they will always depend on their jobs. And unforeseen events such as work-related problems, marital problems, illnesses, etc., are always will sinkn in hardships from which not everyone will be able to recover. Robert Kiyosaki christened this phenomenon of a «rat race» from which it is not easy to get out of, in his popular book «Rich Dad, Poor Dad». You can find out more about Kiyosaki at http://richdadclub.es But it’s not just a matter of getting out of this rat race but what is truly essential for achieving success is Do it as soon as possible! That’s why I’ve titled this post ‘It’s too late at 30’: (to be continued tomorrow)

What you would have done with your lottery winnings…

En Octubre de hace dos años, escribimos this article donde alertábamos de los errores en los que caía un potencial afortunado de un sorteo de lotería y sus planes para invertir ese dinero. A continuación podremos ver lo que habría sido de esa fortuna tan sólo pasados un par de años, después de emplear ese dinero de la forma que quiso:

Chance has led me to a post de solobolsa.org en que hace una simple reflexión de qué hacer si nos toca la lotería. Antes de entrar en materia permitidme que complete los datos de los porcentajes de afortunados que lo han perdido/gastado todo en 5 y 10 años: 35% en menos de 5 años; pero el porcentaje de arruinados se dispara hasta casi un 90% al cabo de 10 años. Terrorífico, ¿verdad? No obstante estas cifras habría que corregirlas ligeramente a la baja por los minoritarios casos que habrán eludido el fisco y se habrán trasladado a opacos paradises prosecutors, joining the long list of those who have fallen on hard times.

Apart from a few exceptions, I suppose the first thing you’ve all thought on reading this statistic is that «that wouldn’t happen to me», because we believe we’re capable of making far fewer mistakes than others. Perhaps that’s true in some cases, but the fact is that those who make the most reckless mistakes, commit the most rookie blunders, and are the most naive and least prepared, end up ruined much sooner. These are the views of the article’s author, and I fear they are shared by many who will probably never read our blog:

– Share a 10% with family and close friends.
– Donate another 10% to charity.
– Pay off my house; that would clear my mortgage.
– Change the car; it’s about time.
– 25%. I would buy some shares – at least five of them, across different sectors – with a high dividend, which would allow me to earn a little more (if possible, quite a bit more) each month than I do in my current job.
– 5% for investments in plots of land, flats or property funds.
– I would invest the remainder in global actively managed equity funds and at least 5% in fixed-income investments, with a focus on short-term instruments.

If you take a closer look at the author’s plans, you’ll realise that, in his case, he might have some money left after 10 years, but it will basically depend on the stock market and whether he has the nerves of steel to hold on when it falls, or whether he’ll be tempted to invest in a business or enjoy life a bit more. But under no circumstances do his plans guarantee his future.

The first major mistake: spending small amounts straight away on family, friends and charity. The second major mistake is paying off any outstanding mortgage(s). The third is buying a car straight away. As for the rest, apart from a 5% in property investment and another 5 % in short-term fixed-income investments, it is to be invested exclusively in the stock market.

But the crux of these mistakes lies not so much in how the money is spent, but in the way the wealth is structured. Let’s take it step by step:

Cuando un afortunado de lotería o heredero recibe una fuerte suma de dinero que le va a cambiar la vida radicalmente para bien o para mal, lo primero que debería hacer es buscar un Counsellor o asesor independiente con experiencia en este tipo de perfil. Evidentemente no es posible encontrar estos perfiles entre la banca privada, entre los bufetes de abogados ni entre los gestores o money managers de entidades financieras de inversión. Si la fortuna no es suficiente para contratar los servicios de un multi-family office y suponiendo que no se encuentre este asesor independiente apto para conducirle hacia el blindaje y crecimiento patrimonial a medio y largo plazo, vamos a intentar dar unas directrices genéricas que quizás ayuden a clarificar algunos conceptos a los que se puedan encontrar en una situación similar, bien sea por ser afortunados de sorteos o herederos.

En primer lugar hay que empezar por hacer trabajar el dinero en renta fija líquida desde el primer día. Así tendremos días, semanas o meses para buscar un buen Counsellor y tomar decisiones, muchas decisiones. Elaborar un wish list que nos permita diseñar cómo queremos vivir a partir de ese momento. Cuantificar los ingresos que necesitamos para mantener el tren de vida deseado e incluir las cuotas de las hipotecas a largo plazo de los inmuebles que deseamos comprar en un futuro inmediato. Una vez cuantificada esta cifra mensual o anual, debemos añadir imprevistos, seguros médicos, ayudas a terceros, necesidades asistenciales para familiares a medio plazo, crecimiento patrimonial global a IPCx2 y un largo etcétera que casi siempre olvidamos cuando realizamos un wish list without proper advice. Of course, this list will vary considerably from one case to another, as we cannot apply the coffee for everyone when it comes to shaping our future way of life.

A partir de este momento debemos reestructurar nuestros activos para comprobar si generan suficientes rentas para cumplir con nuestro diseño de vida, incluyendo por supuesto las hipotecas fruto de la adquisición de los inmuebles deseados. Si no es así, deberemos revisar nuestro wish list downwards. Obviously, sound tax advice will enable us to structure our Global Wealth Plan in such a way as to minimise the tax liability.

Existe una enorme diferencia entre recibir un premio o herencia y comenzar a gastar pequeñas (o grandes) cantidades para invertir el sobrante en RV; o bien utilizar las rentas fijas obtenidas por la totalidad de esos activos para gastar, ayudar, prever o comprar inmuebles con hipotecas. Lógicamente debemos tener la capacidad de poder colocar nuestro dinero para que obtengamos rendimientos superiores a los costes hipotecarios con el mínimo riesgo. Y esa capacidad la obtendremos con un buen asesoramiento, correcta desfiscalización y un volumen mínimo que nos permita acceder a ciertos productos financieros y por supuesto pagar los servicios de este asesoramiento integral experto.

Returning to the example of our friend from SoloBolsa.org, veréis que se podría hacer prácticamente lo mismo: Repartir dinero a la familia y amigos, hacer donativos,cambiar de coche, etc. incluso invertir parte de nuestros rendimientos en bolsa. Pero ni liquidar hipotecas ni dejar el futuro del crecimiento de nuestros activos en manos de la RV, ya que ese crecimiento debe estar blindado y asegurado.

These protocols, which are designed for sudden windfalls (such as lottery winnings or inheritances), are essentially also applicable to any type of medium- to high-value wealth, even if it is newly acquired wealth resulting from the sale of property, shares or business profits.

Even in the case of fortunes that are just beginning to take shape, without lotteries or inheritances, as we mentioned in our article Effect Cluster back in April:

«Although many may not believe it, doing the right thing and working with diligence and wisdom attracts good fortune. Perhaps the good luck »it is not as random as the fools would have us believe, and I would go so far as to say that, in economic terms, it is not even that unfair.’

Un caso más de la dilapidación de la fortuna súbita en pocos años. Esta vez en tan sólo un par y apuntillada por la caída de los mercados de RV, de los que habría abusado inconscientemente, llevado en volandas por banqueros y amigos listillos. Carne de cañón…

The resilient investor and the pseudo-resilient investor.

Gracias a un comentario de A de Agustinote he releído un artículo que escribimos hace más de dos años. Para los que escribimos públicamente desde hace años, no es fácil que un texto antiguo soporte bien el paso del tiempo, y cuando eso ocurre, es la prueba del algodón de que el texto mereció y merece la pena. Si realizamos el ejercicio de relectura pasados años (o incluso meses) de muchos de nuestros más admirados autores, nos daremos cuenta de que en muchos casos el tiempo les deja (nos deja) en evidencia. Quizá sea pasión de padre, pero sinceramente creo que los de Fresh Family Office, en general soportan muy bien el paso de los años. Y aprovechando el periodo estival, vamos a recordar algunos que merecerá la pena releer.

Ahí va The Resilient Investor, escrito el 29 de Julio de 2007:

Let me start by saying that the observations I am about to make refer to an average investor with average capabilities and little preparation for the financial world – in other words, the majority of the population who have sufficient purchasing power to consider investing beyond simply making ends meet. Naturally, many readers will stand out from this average profile and should not feel that this applies to them. However, based on our experience with consultations of all kinds, we can confirm that what happens to the investors we are about to discuss is, unfortunately, all too common. We believe that by helping to identify the problems, we are taking steps towards resolving them or avoiding them in some way. Just as there is companies specialising in helping other companies become more resilient, it is also vital from the point of view of Counsellors that we can make the investor more resilient.
Many investors’ assets are subject to the sectoral cycles that their own salaries help to offset. These investors have a more or less fixed income from their employment, and on that economic basis take their first tentative steps into equities, investments in alternative energy, property, mixed financial products recommended by their fund managers, and so on. Most of them compulsively switch from one type of investment to another, depending on how things have gone for them. It is common to find people who, after a a year of misfortune After getting burned in the stock market, they spend a few years vehemently denouncing the vagaries of the markets. They usually swing from one extreme to the other, investing excessively in property or even in fixed-income products with an annual 3% yield. But everything passes, and the temptation to see how their friends have made a fortune five years later, in any equity fund, eventually erases from their memory the bitter words uttered by their financial advisor: «The correction is proving more severe than expected, but very good opportunities are now beginning to emerge; you should inject more capital to average down and capitalise on the falls…». Inevitably, just as they decided to cut their losses and change strategy, the stock markets began their spectacular recovery. Shortly afterwards, the bewildered but proud average investor (none of us likes to admit our faults and failures) will try to offload a pile of properties accumulated to the point of obsession and now overvalued, right in the midst of the sector’s slump. And not just for the sake of switching strategy towards the stock market and «stop messing about at 3%«, but because the mortgage commitments already entered into are becoming dangerously burdensome when property prices stop rising by 25% a year between the off-plan purchase and the handover of the keys.

The same applies to other investment strategies involving various financial products: when you lose out on oil, you move on to precious metals, preference shares, currency speculation, and so on. Even if we pick the right products and enjoy months of prosperity, our own fund managers and advisers (little angels…) will see to it that we switch from one to another depending on «the deal of the day» they need to sell. Investments in other people’s businesses can end up putting them «keep your leg on top so they can't get up«.

The result of these «strategies» investment strategy over the decades: a whimsical, disjointed, haphazard and, of course, expensive mishmash. A series of sharp turns in their investment strategy that will have nothing to do with their families« life goals. That «I've put my foot in it; I'm off there to make amends«...it won’t end in tragedy if they at least have some paid-off property left over from their time in the property market.”.

Some of you might think we’re over-dramatising things, since if, come our old age, we still have a property or two and a few other assets, it will mean we haven’t done too badly after all, despite our erratic path. Here I must disagree, because we must bear in mind what we said at the start of this post: the ability to generate income from our work throughout our lives. The income we are able to generate throughout our working lives, the passage of time and compound interest work wonders. If we take all this income – obviously after deducting our family’s expenses – the surplus generated by even very moderate compound interest would surprise more than a few people. Many families would probably have even more assets than they have accumulated after cyclically risking, gaining and losing their surpluses in various investments and businesses.

What we mean by this is simply that many adventures For the majority of investors, their investments would end in disaster if they did not have a surplus from their employment to help them, from time to time, mitigate the losses they suffer on the stock market, in business, with financial products and—though some may still not believe it—in property ventures too. If we were to strictly separate our earned income from our investment portfolio, we would see that only those investments made with a certain degree of judgement and rigour are self-sustaining. The rest, at one point or another in our lives, usually require an injection of funds from our salaries or inheritances. This false resilience (in the psychological sense of the term) stems from the regenerative capacity of the income derived from the investors’ own work. If we separate this earned income from our investment portfolio, it will likely become clear that our ability to bounce back after an investment setback is not what it seems. Many investors are not truly resilient without the support of their salaries; therefore, they need independent financial advice or a radical change of strategy, for the sake of their families’ future. In many cases, one’s earning capacity must bear the brunt of an individual’s investment errors and failures, minimising them to the point of distorting our view of our own wealth-creation capabilities outside of our work.

If we maintain this strict separation between our two economies, our investment ventures should be financed through loans. Thus, «inevitably»The investment itself should be able to pay for itself, clearly demonstrating our ability to make sound investments throughout our lives. An old friend used to say: «If a business can't even cover the interest on its bank loan, what a rubbish business.»We could then set aside the surplus from our professional income and reinvest it in fixed income, as we would already be assuming the risks associated with other types of investment independently. In this way, we would create genuine, fully protected savings plans for our later years, whilst remaining aware of our limitations and capabilities when it comes to investing.

As for the ability to create wealth, I would add:

«We’re all capable of making sound investments; we just need to seek advice from someone who can help us avoid making a lot of bad ones’

If we manage to do that, we will have achieved the status of Resilient Investor, in one of its meanings referring to the ability to thrive in an unhealthy environment. An interesting concept, don’t you think?

Own-to-Rent: Watch out, watch out…

In light of the current wave of foreclosures and, above all, the wave yet to come in the US property market, the Obama team is considering an idea that echoes the one put forward by Felix Salmon in The Atlantic: «Own-to-Rent«The aim is to enable homeowners who are unable to meet their mortgage payments because they have lost their jobs to keep their homes.’ indefinitely in their own home, paying the going rate for rent.

This seemingly brilliant plan solves many problems at a stroke: firstly, families facing repossession could maintain some stability in their lives. Without the trauma of losing their jobs and the money paid for a home that is no longer theirs, not even in the slightest (which is no small matter). The banks, for their part, having been suitably bailed out as is already happening through the state’s purchase of subprime mortgage-backed securities, would find themselves with market-rate rental income from the properties they once financed and which now become their property. Consequently, we would no longer see that flood of properties being dumped onto the market, with millions of homes being offloaded at any price. This would prevent a fall in property prices, which would plug the holes in the balance sheets of the financial institutions in question within a matter of months. It would also prevent the acts of vandalism the common practice among those facing repossession of vandalising their homes before leaving them, in a final act of defiance against the banks – in other words, what has come to be known as the destructive syndrome of the on the verge of being seized (as we can see in the second half of the following video):

A solution, then, that appears to benefit everyone. But just as is the case, for example, in molecular biology or genetics, any seemingly positive change can have unpredictable and undesirable consequences. In economics or macroeconomics, the unknowns are endless, not least because, ultimately, it is people who are involved, with their corruption and greed, chance… and unthinkable butterfly effects such as changes of government in a remote country, religions and unspeakable affinities, wars, pandemics, conflicts, and a million unknown causes that can distort the expected and anticipated effects. And intervention in the markets should only take place when necessary, whilst attempting to violate as few universal laws as possible and, moreover, keeping our fingers crossed. Having said that, let us try to anticipate some of the consequences which, a priori, could worsen the future scenario.

The first question that springs to mind is why help unemployed homeowners but not all homeowners in financial difficulty. Or why not help those who are already renting and become unemployed. In short, why this discriminatory double standard based on the impact and damage that the mass bankruptcy of these families causes to financial institutions? The injection of state money in exchange for worthless mortgage paper helps the banks. But it provides no help, at least not directly or indirectly, to the unemployed homeowner.

Another consequence with potentially dire effects is that the banking sector would dominate the property market and, consequently, market prices—both for purchases and, to a large extent, for rentals. The prices set by financial institutions (even those not in danger) would be higher than market rates, for their own accounting convenience, making the property market even more illiquid and yet more expensive. That is the result of intervening in the market in a perverse and concerted manner.

Anyone interested in buying a house currently rented to its former owner (who would be «encouraged» to vacate it voluntarily) would be granted a mortgage with favourable terms, even if they were not creditworthy, since, in the worst-case scenario, the bank could repeat the process, reducing the cost of the property to the bank with each transaction (of course, obtaining a mortgage to buy a house sold by a private individual would be impossible). Besides, what the hell, all the banks would do the same and the distinction between buyer and tenant would blur. It would also have deflationary consequences that would affect CPI figures in ways that would be difficult to manage. And many others that emerge as we spend time imagining this hypothetical scenario.

If one were to be cynical, it might be a concerted strategy to prop up US property prices (Spanish prices still have a long way to fall before anything like that could be hatched). The reality is that most of the property market would be under the absolute control of the banks, and that smacks of abuses even more unjust than the relentless laws of supply and demand. At the end of the day, we would be intervening in the market, but not through the State, as we proposed at the start of the year in Mortgage socialisation and Bad Owners, but from the bench. Extremely dangerous.

Schwarzenegger and Zapatero, or the Hole Formula.

Let’s put the situation facing nations into an equation. Mathematics often makes the realities we’d rather not face more apparent. It is therefore beneficial to play around with a simple equation if we truly want to understand what is happening around us.
Governments are footing the bill for the credit spree that banks – and we ourselves (business owners and/or consumers) – have indulged in over recent years. Faced with the insolvency of debtors, the banks have been – and continue to be – bailed out by the state. Furthermore, Keynesian public spending and the destruction of taxable wealth are causing deficits to soar month after month. Let us therefore consider the simple equation facing governments:

G – I = ΔM + ΔD

Where G is public spending, I taxes, M the money supply and D debt. It will be clear to everyone that the left-hand side of the equation determines the deficit, and the right-hand side determines how it is financed. Obviously, if G be overtaken by I, we would be facing a scenario of a surplus, and the increases would result in a reduction in debt or even in the money supply.

The deficit must therefore be covered by an increase in the money supply and/or by the issuance of public debt. But what happens when a state has complete budgetary freedom but no monetary freedom? Let us consider the example of California, the equation for which is simply: G – I = ΔD An equation that must be balanced in every annual budget. This leads us to a scenario where a constraint on borrowing capacity causes the state to go bankrupt, for which there is only one sustainable solution: bringing G and I into balance. In other words, in a crisis environment where revenue is falling, the only solution is a drastic cut in public spending, which in turn will cause the crisis to deepen.

There is, of course, a limit to borrowing capacity. And to a large extent, this will be determined by the market, since the lower the creditworthiness perceived by the investor,, the higher the interest rate the State will have to offer to attract money into its debt. A debt that is becoming increasingly waterlogged. The other limit will be set by the legislation that regulates – or attempts to regulate – solvency, defining what is known as «country risk». However, in the case of California (an economy which, on its own, would rank among the top eight in the world), there is no escape via increased debt due to the already excessive ‘wetness’ (insolvency) of its paper, nor does it have the capacity to print banknotes. Both possibilities are a matter of decisions foreign, that is to say, the market and the US as a whole. When the deficit is spiralling out of control and tax revenues are falling, the issuance of debt It ceases to be difficult and becomes an impossible task. Attracting funding when investors« confidence has been lost is like trying to stop a house of cards from collapsing with your bare hands. And at present, it seems unthinkable that California could issue and print its own banknotes in its own currency. It therefore seems plausible that the US as a whole will »bail out’ California’s debt so that it can continue to be placed with investors with the backing of the US Treasury. This will have to be accompanied by rigorous austerity in public spending, something Schwarzenegger is already implementing in line with his neoliberal playbook.


There is also talk of the possibility that the fifty US states might be given the power to issue currency (or at least those that are unable to balance their books), but it seems, in the case of the US, that it would be less traumatic for the federal government to underwrite the guarantees needed by the spendthrift Schwarzenegger to continue inflating California’s public debt.

Interestingly, every day I see more and more parallels between Schwarzenegger and Spain’s Zapatero, even though their strategies for tackling the crisis are radically opposed (neoliberal versus socialist). Both are leading countries facing serious insolvency problems and an inability to balance the books. It seems unthinkable that the US would allow California to collapse, but I do not find it so implausible that the EU would leave to their own devices those countries with a large gap between G e I. The PIIGS equation It could be balanced by injecting I from the wealthy countries of Europe, of course, but it is clear that patriotism within the EU does not reach the same levels as in the US. Of course, the idea of allowing an independent monetary policy within the EU is difficult to imagine, but it would bring many pieces of the puzzles and would balance the equation. However, it is even harder to imagine that the wealthy EU countries would pay up and bail out, without so much as a murmur, states that only a few years ago abandoned their flexible exchange rates and joined the monetary union with virtual pride.

Krugman He had already warned Zapatero four months ago that It’s as if the European Union didn’t exist. In other words, warns that no help should be expected from it because, in fact, it is a sham organisation when it comes to coordinating exceptional measures. This, combined with the inability to devalue the currency, due to membership of the monetary union, means that (as he said on his blog) to be in the eurozone It does not guarantee that the crisis will be overcome or that the outlook will improve; quite the contrary. The situation is likely to be even more difficult for Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Greece.

For the time being, Schwarzenegger has written a letter to the Three Kings (Obama) begging for a bailout from the US government. Zapatero has copied his letter, but the real drama – for Spain and the rest of the PIIGS – is that there’s nowhere to send it. Meanwhile, the equation is becoming deeply ingrained in our macroeconomic figures. And mathematical equations are truths that know nothing of politics or social upheavals.

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