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A holding company called the EU.

They are increasingly more y more the voices that unabashedly denounce the unsustainable burden that the most shattered economies place on the survival of the world's poorest and most vulnerable people. European Union as such. As if from a large holding company In order to keep the group's consolidated balance sheet afloat with a chance of weathering the global downturn, some «brands» must be closed or sold. Otherwise it will be of no use if the strong companies in the group have the capacity to be viable and to overcome the desert crossing before us. The holes and losses of the companies in difficulty would take away the solvency of the entire holding company with tremendous ease and speed.

Continuing with the business simile, for EU countries, the insolvency of brands such as Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Spain and perhaps Italy (PIIGS) is an inevitable and undeniable fact. The holding company's finances cannot afford the cash injections needed to revive these troubled brands, not least because their liabilities are enormous. And we cannot even excuse ourselves by saying that the global crisis has hit these brands particularly hard. companies. They are simply inefficient, obsolete, mismanaged and debt-ridden corporate structures that are breaking their balance sheets with pitiful rapidity. Only in the expansive, sweet, virtual environment from which we come could such inefficient companies survive, and even seemingly progress. For all these reasons, as has happened to countless companies outside the group, the crisis has meant the most rigorous and efficient application of the Darwinian law of business (it is interesting to reread «...").«Darwin, credit and Keynes»(in terms of the state and not the company). For the states that leave the group, this liberation will allow them to compete under less stifling conditions in terms of currency and standards. And thus avoid the closure of these companies. companies and to promote the viability of the restructuring they require, by resizing themselves in a much less demanding and stifling EU B environment.

It is therefore necessary to corporate operation historical. The holding company called «EU» must restructure, re-found itself in order to survive. We are likely to see closures, corporate sales, demergers and mergers unimaginable, carried out by a team of M&A; which to this day has not even been contracted. Or at least that is the official version. But although the victims of «restructuring» themselves are always the last to know about the intentions of the holding company's management, this time it is a more than foreseeable, inevitable amputation. And yet unannounced because of a political correctness that is untenable in the current situation.

The group's management is not reacting swiftly or forcefully. Perhaps because of the sentimental and political implications of dismembering and/or amputating the evicted brands. Or perhaps because the management is not being competent enough to take courageous decisions and take the bull by the horns (never better said).

Despite the 80% of Eurosceptic abstention in countries such as Slovakia and Lithuania, it is curious that traditionally Eurosceptic countries such as Ireland, faced with its situation of state bankruptcy, are slightly changing their sentiment towards the EU. In other words, faced with the impossibility of facing the crisis in conditions of minimum solvency and with a foreseeable footing in an EU B, the sentiment towards the EU is changing slightly. Europhile is becoming somewhat more evident. Perhaps the fear of flying solo again, and the psychological defeat it would mean for the PIIGS environment, is causing the feeling of clinging to the udder. But sentiment is also growing the other way around. In fact, this is always the case, and the richer country, nation or supranational organisation tends to want to separate itself from its poorer neighbours, compatriots or allies. Economic interests often trump national affinities, and even more so in an EU where members have different cultures, different languages and, of course, very different economic capacities to cope with difficult times.

As he said Mary Ellen Synon already in this article from the Daily Mail months ago and which I recommend you read carefully:

«In the days before the euro, when Italy had the lire and Greece had the drachma and so on (PIIGS), a country in such trouble could devalue its currency to help increase its exports and take pressure off its jobs. Escape from the euro would also allow a country to regain control over its own monetary policy».»

Economic euroscepticism is increasing in direct proportion to the unsustainability of the technical bankruptcy of the PIIGS area.. It is understandable and cannot be otherwise. If we put ourselves in the shoes of an EU A citizen, the feeling of not wanting to be dragged down by the excesses committed in the countries now in trouble is entirely reasonable. We are the EU civil servants: Inefficient, unproductive, accommodating and subsidised. Vulnerable, falsely resilient and with no chance of overcoming the adversities that loom over all, at least in an EU A environment and a currency as we know it.

If we think of the survival of the EU as a political and economic project, i.e. if we think in terms of a sustainable and competent holding or business group, the amputation of the PIIGS brands is unavoidable.. And the deep restructuring needed by these failing companies is only feasible without the pressure of belonging to a holding company that demands standards that are currently unacceptable.

A traumatic, unimaginable, technically very complicated, predictably denied to the point of evidence and implausible political-economic corporate process. But nevertheless, inevitable. The elephant still in the room of the holding company called the EU, and it is called PIIGS.

The Untouchables of Vicente Ferrer.

Today we won’t be talking about wealth management, though we will be discussing Wealth with a capital W. It is a sad day, and yet we won’t be discussing the crisis. Today is a day for reflection, taking a perspective that goes beyond the the bigger picture which we have mentioned so often in our articles. Today is also a sad day as we mourn the loss of someone truly special.

A wonderful person has passed away tonight: Vicente Ferrer. They will never beatify him like they did homonym (and so the Church will once again be shown up), but I cannot find the words to pay sufficient tribute to this man, who is more committed than anyone else to those in need. Fifty years devoted exclusively to helping the poorest and most needy in the most remote and destitute region of India, Anantapur. A caste, the untouchables or Dalits, who are relegated to the most extreme marginalisation. That is where Vicente Ferrer arrived 50 years ago, at the very heart of marginalisation, where the need was greatest. His work, and that of all the donors, has ensured that today the Vicente Ferrer Foundation serve as a model of cooperation.

He popularised sponsorship in the most sensitive and effective way, and today more than 2.5 million people depend on the work of his team. These are staggering figures that should make us all feel ashamed when we compare them with what we have done for those most in need. Personally, I believe that rarely has a Nobel Peace Prize been more justified. A man who, as one would expect, donated all the income he received from his many honours and awards to the same cause.

Fortunately, his wife and partner Ana Ferrer, his son Moncho, and his nephew Jordi Folgado Ferrer will carry on with the work for as long as we all wish. I leave you with a message from this wonderful team on this very sad day for humanity:

«It is with great sadness that I write to inform you that my dear husband and our great friend Vicente Ferrer passed away peacefully at 1.15 am on 19 June, following complications from his heart condition and the stroke he suffered recently.”.

I know we all feel that Vicente has achieved far more than just a great deal in the course of his life. Now the time has come for him to rest in peace, and for us to carry on with the great work he began, as well as to spread his ideals of commitment to the most disadvantaged and “action” to alleviate the suffering in this world.

You have all been with us in spirit and in heart throughout these past three months since Vicente suffered a stroke on 19 March, and you have been a great help and source of support.

To me, my husband has not left us; rather, he lives on in every corner of Anantapur and in every aspect of the work we do in our villages. For all of us in India and Spain, he continues to live on through his simple words and messages, which hold meaning for everyone, whatever their beliefs or circumstances.

Anna Ferrer, Moncho Ferrer, Jordi Folgado and the family members.»

I can assure you that what you see in these three videos is the absolute truth. If, after watching them, you don’t feel the need to help (anyone, in any way), I pity you.

May this man of integrity, kindness and exemplary character rest in peace. Thank you so much, and namaste.

Mistreatment.

Continuing to observe the behaviour of banks in these critical times, we have come across several very curious and significant cases in which solvent customers are strategically mistreated. Let us explain this with an example, fictitious of course:

«Don Solvent Entrepreneur (E. S.) must renew a credit policy of your company ERE, S.A. on its usual bench, the Molculo Bank. The amount is €1 million at annual Euribor +1.5%, which had always been guaranteed with the company's own buildings and installations. ERESA, valued at almost double that amount. The company has reduced its workforce in 2008 and 2009 (as the more astute among you will have already guessed), but it is still standing with a dignity envied by most. With much reduced profits but without losses and with good prospects of a merger with another company in the sector, a strategic alliance that would leave the group in a position of clear competitive advantage. The current circumstances and prospects are, therefore, among the best that can be found in the business world today. In other words, a good old-fashioned bank customer.

Well, Don E. S. cannot understand why this year, his banker and friend S. M. (Soyún Mandao) explains to him that the conditions have been tightened due to new management in the bank's risk department. For the renewal of the policy, the bank is demanding collateral for the warehouses, installations, machinery, the fleet of trucks, the adjacent land, the not so adjacent land and his personal villa. A total value, which even in this day and age, more than quadruples the €1 million policy to be renewed. But that's not all, the rate to be applied for the renewal of the bloody policy is now 7%! (they are ashamed to index it to the Euribor and round it off by hand).

Solvent Entrepreneur cannot believe that the Molculo Bank, its long-established bank (although a few years ago it was called Muntiro Bank), is doing this to him. Y I am only repeats the assigned mantra: «I'm sorry Empren, The risk managers have become inflexible, there's nothing I can do. Many are not even being given the option to renew their policies... You know what it's like, what can I tell you».

Of course, E. S. is not going to pledge all his assets for a 1 million policy, let alone at 7% per annum! So he decides to visit the director of the Jeando Bank, recommended by a good friend. There he gets a policy for 600.000′- at Euribor +2,25% guaranteed by the warehouses and facilities of ERESA. He also goes to the plodding and almost pre-retired director of the Mopueden Bank, who had so often proposed to his father good conditions for his father to ERESA (when it was still called E. Solvente e Hijos, S.A.). There he gets 400.000′- € more at Euribor +2%, secured only with the land adjacent to the company.

Finally Empren (he's almost like family now, isn't he?) manages to return the policy within the deadline to the Molculo Bank, that this is the end of its commercial relationship with ERESA. Surprisingly (or not), however, he maintains his personal relationship with I am, The Solvente and the Mandao have even been spending their summer holidays together for years.

One day, while sharing the third tinto de verano (a traitor if ever there was one) and some boquerones (anchovies) at a beach bar, I am he commented absentmindedly to Empren that the risk managers were renegotiating debts left, right and centre with business clients in distress, some even in a pre-insolvency situation. That they had no other solution than to refinance policies, with hardly any guarantees and in demolition conditions, if they did not want to eat more real estate and uncover more bad debts than the Bank of Spain was willing to ignore. And while they were asking for the fourth round, he began to indiscreetly and recklessly tell him about the case of the 1.2 million euro policy renegotiated for a company named Ebitdapena, S.A.....»

This is just a humorous example of what today's hard-pressed banks are doing. Due to the inability to release asset operations with customers in the red, they have no choice but to release ballast through solvent customer debt. In other words, they mistreat solvent debtors to the point of forcing them to transfer their credit operation to other institutions. It does not matter how solvent or profitable this good customer has been, is and will be in the future. After all, what bank today cares about the future? A few months or years ago, a customer like our friend Solvent Entrepreneur, was a treasure for any entity. And yet today the priority is bailing water and coefficients, balancing balance sheets and defaulting on payments by hammering. In short, surviving at the cost of whatever.

It has always been said: «If you owe the bank 1 million, the bank has you on the hook. If you owe the bank 1 billion, you are the one who has the bank on the hook.«. Well, it is clear that this maxim is an understatement. And today, the banks are not only caught not only by the debtors of 1 billion but also by the defaulters of small and medium-sized mortgages. It is the power of the anthill next to a large, seriously ill and dying prey.

That's how bad banking is, gentlemen. Of course, this doesn't happen to one's own bank, it always happens to other people's banks, whether or not they are in the list of the downgrades massive.

Social Exclusion and Show Business (and 2).

Continued from Exclusión Social y Show Business (1).

En este escenario trágico en el que la necesidad social comienza a desbordar países como España, ex-candidato reivindicativo de octava potencia mundial (sic). En el que el entorno PIIGS, cae en el vacío de sus propios excesos, en el mismo corazón de una UE más convulsa, tensionada y cuestionada que nunca. En este panorama que hemos definido, de repente, vemos noticias pertenecientes al mundo del show business como la del fichaje de dos futbolistas por 158.000.000′- € que ni siquiera garantizan el éxito deportivo. Excesos que deben hacer reflexionar a cualquier ser humano y que personalmente me resultan inconcebibles, inoportunos, inmorales… increíbles. Igual de reprobables que los de cualquier otro exceso económico-deportivo, de cualquier color, en el entorno actual de constricción social y negro horizonte.

Incluso en el absurdo mundo del show biz, hay maneras y maneras de entretener en tiempos de depresión, sufrimiento y exclusión social. Se ha demostrado que se puede ganar todo formando futbolistas desde la base, y en los tiempos que corren es más que nunca un deber invertir por la productividad y el I+D propio, también en la búsqueda de talento deportivo. No se trata sólo de no incrementar la burbuja de crédito (562 millones de euros debe el club blanco), como podréis ver en este excelente artículo de GurusBlog y que también se está llevando por delante las economías de muchos clubes. Sino también de tener, o al menos fingir, cierta conciencia de las dificultades ante las que se encuentra la sociedad española y la humanidad en su conjunto. Se trata de donar, hoy más que nunca, mucho más que 10 millones de $ a una organización como Unicef en 5 años, y por supuesto dejar radicalmente de promocionar the apuestas y exportar y dilapidar para siempre 158 millones debidos en 5 semanas. Se trata de entretener en el mundo del showbiz sin rebasar los límites de la ética que la miseria social se está encargando de sensibilizar y acotar, aunque muchos sigan mirando hacia otro lado.

El exceso absurdo en estos tiempos supera récords, tal y como cita La Voz de Galicia en this article:

«Florentino Pérez, que en su primera etapa al frente del Real Madrid (seis temporadas), se gastó 499 millones de euros en fichajes, ya ha consumido 159, una cifra nunca alcanzada en una temporada por el club blanco y que supera la mitad de los 300 que, según anunció, obtendría de créditos.»

Otras voces eminentes como la de Xavier Sala i Martín, ante las cifras de tal despilfarro, se cuestionan:

«…Álguien le tendrá que dar dinero y sería bueno que lo explicara. Cómo puede ser que a un equipo de fútbol le dejen todo ese dinero, teniendo en cuenta la actual situación económica del país y la política de restricción de créditos que están siguiendo todos los bancos…»

Los cuatro fichajes más caros de la Historia del Fútbol los ha protagonizado el Real Madrid (Cristiano Ronaldo, Zidane, Kaká y Figo). La objeción es cuando menos ética, al menos mientras el Titanic se mantenga a flote por sí mismo y sin ayudas encubiertas ni tratos preferenciales corporativos. Pero que el primero y el tercero se hayan producido en plena recesión global y con un deterioro social en España jamás vivido, es mucho más que inoportuno.

A los excluídos sociales simpre les quedará el desquicio del show business para evadirse de su triste realidad, pero esta locura económico-deportiva, sea del color que sea, en plena debacle social me parece de una bajeza moral denunciable. No es esto, no. Entretener así, no.

Exclusión Social y Show Business (1).

Se está poniendo de lamentable moda el concepto de excluíd@ social, porque está afectando a segmentos de la población que creíamos muy lejos de la marginación: La clase media y media/baja. Las cifras son espeluznantes y se amplifican con la falsa placidez del hundimiento del Titanic. En organizaciones como Cáritas en los primeros 5 meses de este año se han recibido más solicitudes en los servicios de acogida y atención primaria que en todo el año 2007. Y lo que es aún más preocupante es el perfil de las personas que han disparado las estadísticas de estos servicios. No se trata de personas sin techo, con problemas de adicciones, etc. Ni siquiera se trata de personas que han quedado sin empleo y en la calle. El perfil es de personas con trabajo, pero cuyos sueldos van casi íntegramente o en su totalidad para pagar cuotas de hipoteca y préstamos varios reunificados desesperadamente, con condiciones impagables por muchos años que vivan y produzcan. ¿Cómo han llegado estas familias a esa situación de endeudamiento, incapacidad de pago y quiebra vital que les arroja a la exclusión social? Pues básicamente por tres causas: La incitación bancaria al endeudamiento, la incitación social al consumo y la incapacidad e imprudencia de los protagonistas de estas desesperantes estadísticas. La crisis económica y la dificultad para mantener unos sueldos suficientemente elevados (alejados de la productividad competitiva) ha hecho, está haciendo y hará, el resto.

Por debajo de estas familias con trabajo e ingresos, pero incapaces de hacer frente a su endeudamiento, tenemos que añadir a las que han perdido sus puestos de trabajo y no son capaces de encontrar ingresos sustitutivos. Y por supuesto también los clásicos marginados y excluídos de siempre, cuya cifra también aumenta alimentada por la desesperación de los parados que caen en la espiral de la marginación y delincuencia.

En definitiva estamos viendo ayudas del todo insuficientes y desbordadas ante demandas ingentes, exponenciales y globales, que se llevarán también por delante la capacidad de las ONGs para paliar las necesidades del tercer mundo en favor de las, cada vez más acuciantes, necesidades del primero. Una prueba más de lo que dijimos hace casi medio año: El escenario va a ser un infierno inimaginable para la generación de jóvenes que todo compraban y tenían, gracias al crédito y a los ahorros de sus antepasados. Una sudamericanización cada día más evidente, pero no sólo a nivel económico-social sino también a nivel económico-estatal.

The brecha digital diferenció el primer del tercer mundo en los últimos años, pero la brecha social que se está produciendo en países como España, en un escenario tecnológicamente alfabetizado, nos relega a una profundización de la diferencia de clases. Algo que pensábamos haber dejado atrás con la masificación y popularización de la clase media. Pero resulta que en un entorno rico en tecnologías de la información y telecomunicación, esa clase media era en realidad enriquecida con dinero debido, virtual y pobre.

Continuará con el Show Business…

The Banking Circus.

¡Bienvenidos al maravilloso mundo del Circo de la Banca! Pasen y vean: Aquí encontrarán un mundo de emociones fuertes. Con auténticas fieras salvajes que les harán estremecer con sus rugidos y zarpazos, ilusionistas que nos dejarán boquiabiertos con trucos mágicos, equilibristas en la cuerda floja, contorsionistas con posturas inhumanas, escapistas who will free themselves from impossible traps and, of course, clowns who will make us laugh out loud.

Así comenzaba nuestro artículo de hace un año y medio titulado «El Circo de la Bolsa«. Y como ya temimos en aquel entonces, unos meses después «…los contorsionistas, equilibristas, ilusionistas, fieras y payasos, dejaron de ser un espectáculo para convertirse en pesadilla surreal.» Lo mismo le ha sucedido al Circo de la Banca:

En verano de 2008 publicamos this article en el que veíamos claramente cómo barrían para casa todas las recomendaciones para invertir 30.000 euros que hacían diversas entidades en Expansion. Resulta curioso leer ahora, casi un año después, las recomendaciones que realizan otras entidades para invertir 20.000 euros. Esta vez el artículo lo publica Cinco Días, y ni que decir tiene que se sigue incurriendo en el mismo error garrafal y pandémico del café para todos, pero esta vez conscientemente y desde una perspectiva periodísticamente algo mas crítica. Hace un año, la condición solicitada por el presunto inversor/periodista fue algo tan surrealista como un genérico «sin asumir elevados riesgos«. Esta vez la consigna reportera ni siquiera alcanza el nivel de lo absurdo y se solicita textualmente «sacar partido a 20.000′- €«. Algo así como enviar un correo electrónico al farmacéutico diciéndole: «Deme algo que me cure«. Demencial.

En realidad a los protagonistas y lectores de éstos artículos, no les importa en absoluto la utilidad de los mismos ni conocer la recomendación adecuada a cada inversor. Entre otros muchos motivos, porque se ignoran las circunstancias de esos inversores y de esos 20 o 30 mil euros (y quien diga que la correcta aplicación de la inútil Mifid solventa el problema, miente interesadamente). Ambos artículos sólo realizan un trabajo de campo, crítico en el caso de Cinco Días y vergonzoso en el caso de Expansión, para conocer qué urge vender más a las entidades que entrevistan. Y el que pretenda obtener algo más de su lectura se equivoca temerariamente.

¿O es que alguien piensa que se debe hacer lo mismo con los 20.000′- € de unos y de otros inversores? Pues aparente y tristemente sí, ya que semejantes sandeces se escriben, se publican y se leen, y casi nunca en clave crítica como en este caso de Cinco Días. Y lo que es peor, influyen en el comportamiento de los inversores menos preparados. Para poner unos ejemplos fáciles de comprender por todos: No se deben invertir del mismo modo 20.000′- €, que suponen los ahorros de toda una vida de un jubilado; o los 20.000′- € de un jóven con una brillante progresión laboral por delante y una capacidad de ahorro potente y creciente. Ni los de una heredera con capacidad de formarse financieramente, o los de una ama de casa procedentes de cualquier lotería. Ni los de un profesional mediocre y jóven, o los de un empresario de mediana edad. Ni los de quien tenga un patrimonio de 50 mil, o 1 millón… Así podríamos seguir con infinidad de casos, porque cada inversor es un mundo y debe gestionar su patrimonio de forma adecuada a sus circunstancias. ¿Comprenden ahora por qué la única información que nos revelan estos estúpidos y/o peligrosos artículos de prensa económica, es el tipo de inversión que más le conviene vender en ese momento a las propias entidades? Lo malo es que la mayoría de lectores buscan (¡y encuentran!) en ellos, indiscriminadamente, consejos que beneficien los intereses de sus familias (sic).

Curioso también ver cómo las entidades financieras aún querían vender el verano pasado fondos de RV (propios, claro) y de «alternative investment«. Sin embargo, este año se conforman con captar pasivo desesperadamente a base de ofrecer todo tipo de depósitos estructurados para mejorar su Tier2, y participaciones preferentes para reflotar su Tier1. Atrás quedó el afán por vender fondos que generen comisiones. El beneficio de la entidad ya no es la prioridad, sino que ahora lo vital es maquillar la quiebra técnica en la que se mueve la banca española. Por eso se venden las preferentes mintiendo a todo aquel que quiera creer que son una alternativa al IPF, entre otras múltiples y comercialmente efectivas patrañas.

En este ejercicio periodístico deformativo, se transcriben conversaciones propias de vendedores de enciclopedias que juegan vilmente con la economía de las familias. Desde nuestra experiencia podemos asegurarles que la opacidad y las mentiras perpetradas por los trabajadores de las entidades suelen ser directamente proporcionales a la ignorancia financiera de sus víctimas, y a las consignas comerciales recibidas según la gravedad de la quiebra técnica de la entidad. En ambos artículos mencionados también se evidencia que las entidades always hacen recomendaciones en su propio interés exclusivamente. Y también que hace tiempo que ya no pretenden tener beneficios y que sólo les preocupa sobrevivir a costa de nuestro dinero. Nos daríamos por satisfechos si, después de leer este artículo, se mirasen de otra manera las recomendaciones de inversión que se publican a diestro y siniestro. A ver si entre todos acabamos con el amarillismo generalizado de la prensa salmón.

Don’t step on my feet – I’m wearing flip-flops.

At this interview in Canadian Business at Michael Lewis, when asked about the main consequences of the financial crisis we are currently experiencing, his response was as follows – and it is well worth reading:

We’re still in this. If you took all the losses in the system and deducted them from the equity of banks worldwide, you would end up with a dramatically negative figure. What we are witnessing is the global nationalisation of the financial sector. The political implications are extraordinary. Take the European Union. Spain, Italy and Ireland are all in a right mess. According to opinion polls, the German public would rather leave the European Union than have to cover these countries’ debts. Sovereign credit is set to come under attack. And the multi-trillion-dollar elephant in the room is: will the United States fulfil its obligations?

In the following video, we can see a short BBC report from almost two years ago (with Spanish subtitles). Unfortunately, its worst fears have come true:

In a recent study carried out by Variant Perception, the reflections on the situation in Spain are far harsher. We shall endeavour to translate them as faithfully as possible:

«As we have said on other occasions, Spain is heading for a long and painful period of deflation, which will become evident through spectacularly high levels of unemployment, the collapse of the property market and widespread bank insolvency. Consider this: the value of the bulk of loans to property developers rose from 33,500 million to 318,000 million between 2000 and 2008. That is an 850% increase over eight years. If we also add the debts of the construction sector itself, the total value of the debt rises to 470,000 million, almost 50% of Spain’s GDP. And many of those loans will ultimately prove to be irrecoverable.

Spanish banks are facing a truly grim outlook. Unemployment has now exceeded 17%. That is to say, there are 4 million unemployed people and 1 million families in which every member is out of work. Spain and Ireland have created the two largest property bubbles in the world. Spain, for example, has the same number of unsold homes as the US, even though the American property market is six times larger than Spain’s.

Why aren’t Spanish banks insolvent yet? Well, because they are not reflecting the true market value of their property on their balance sheets. We often wonder why the property and industrial collapse in Spain has not claimed more victims. The answer is simple, according to an article published in *Expansión* (the Spanish equivalent of the *Financial Times*): Banks and building societies carry out one in every two property valuations.

»We haven’t even begun to see the worst in Spain yet.'

Clearly, the fact that half of the valuations are carried out by companies in which the banks hold a stake – and which are, in turn, their main clients – means that these valuations lose all independence. If we add to this the banks’ desperate need to keep their balance sheets and credibility afloat, the combination is explosive, and turns the previous chart into a highly dangerous fallacy. The reality is that it is in the interests of no official Spanish body to shine a spotlight on the solvency of the Spanish banking sector (further evidence of the difference between global leaders and local politicians).

Given that we can avoid it, we do not think it is a good idea for our money to form part of their balance sheets, neither to safeguard our assets nor to avoid a possible devaluation that many voices of a strong Europe (A) they demand. From abroad, the situation appears much clearer and more realistic. Who would have thought that we would once again have to look to the foreign media for the truth, just as in the days of the dictatorship. In Economic Euroscepticism We could have said it more loudly. And we could have said it much more clearly before, too, but we didn’t think it was responsible to do so publicly whilst it was nothing more than a highly unlikely hypothesis. But perhaps it is now pointless to ignore a reality with an outcome that is difficult to avoid. Even the very Expansion, when discussing the continuity of the Union’s membership, he makes the following politically incorrect statement:

«…In this regard, Schroders maintains that Spain and Italy are the favourites to be the first to break away, although Ireland, Portugal and Greece have recently joined this group…»

The fact is, whether we like it or not, we’ve got a nasty one the elephant in the room of a Europe that is more divided than ever.

Spain strikes fear into the hearts of our neighbours who are better equipped to weather this crisis. And this is only to be expected, given that in the recent past they have made fewer mistakes and committed fewer abuses than countries such as Spain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal or even Berlusconi’s Italy itself. Economically speaking (since, politically and emotionally, we are just as European as the other southern countries to date), we Spaniards have been playing at being ‘first-class Europeans’ (A) over the last decade. But we have lost (B).

This crisis is like taking part in a relay race where we Europeans are all on the same team. Some are wearing the most advanced trainers and they battle athletically against a relentless stopwatch (the crisis). However, some of us on the relay team are feeling sluggish and hungover. And when the better-prepared European athletes rightly criticise us Spanish runners for our poor form and lack of training, we reply: «Don’t step on me, I’m carrying flip-flops«, and we sang this song to them:

What’s going to happen to this team in the future if it doesn’t want to make a fool of itself and wants to keep fighting for a podium finish (A)? It’s as plain as day…

Value investing. Has it made a comeback, or has it never really gone away?

Most people have a short-term memory and tend to forget the past very quickly. This is often seen in football, where last year’s victories count for little if the team fails to perform at the same level this year, and the manager is quickly called into question, only to be ruthlessly sacked later on if the situation does not improve (except in England, where, fortunately, they allow for long-term projects).

In the world of finance, this is even more true, if that is possible, as selective memory is compounded by the envy aroused by investors who, year after year, outperform the market, whilst the majority flounder in a sea of mediocrity. Numerous studies indicate that, over a 10-year period, more than 80% of funds prove unable to outperform their benchmark index.

Just a year ago, numerous voices were raised criticising the heavy losses suffered by funds whose managers are guided by the principle of ‘value investing’ developed by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, pointing to their inability to stay out of the market during periods of sharp decline. Many columnists in prestigious newspapers, but above all second-rate bloggers, did not hesitate to call this investment philosophy into question, perhaps driven by that unhealthy envy so prevalent in the Spanish character, or perhaps because it sells better to criticise and kick a man when he’s down.

This is not the first time comments of this sort have been made. In fact, as far back as 1984, Warren Buffett pointed this out in an article entitled “”The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville", noting how many academics and investment professionals argue that there may be inefficiencies in share prices since, in their view, the market is efficient because its participants have access to a vast amount of information that ensures these prices are fair. Mere luck is used to explain the superior returns of investors who beat the market year after year. Without going too far back, during the tech bubble, the prestigious magazine *Institutional Investor* published a cover story with the following headline: “Value Investing: Can it rise from the ashes?” and even the *New York Times* asked “What is killing value fund managers?

What many did not bother to mention – probably out of ignorance – is that, unfortunately for value investing, and this is one of the main criticisms levelled at it (and rightly so), when all the indices experience such sharp falls as we saw last year – in this case, moreover, triggered by a multi-crisis from which we are still trying to recover – the market does not distinguish between good and bad companies, and everything falls regardless of whether it was overvalued – as was the case with banks, insurance companies and property firms, to give a few examples – or whether its price did not yet reflect the company’s true value.

The Journey Through the Desert (Part 2).

Continued from The Journey Through the Desert (I).

It is very difficult these days to remain untouched by the destruction of wealth. But it is by no means impossible. Over the past year, with the exception of the few enlightened individuals who have managed to invest systematically in the handful of sectors and types of investment that have come out on top, only those with entirely liquid assets – with virtually no property or business holdings – who have stuck to and made do with sovereign fixed-income securities and/or very high-security investments, have escaped the fallout.

However, whilst many issues with sound fundamentals will reach maturity without incident, others will be subject to credit events with unpredictable outcomes, and some estimates suggest that 20% of the total will experience some form of credit event in the coming years. The worst part is that investors will not be able to know whether their corporate debt portfolios will be affected by such an event until maturity, even though many boast about the potential nominal returns over the life of the issue. These days, with fixed-income investments, it’s not how they start, but how they end.

It seems logical to assume that the most challenging years for the creditworthiness of these corporate (and government!) issues will be 2009 – the year we are in – and probably 2010 as well, or even 2011. Why? Well, amongst other reasons, because one of the root causes of this multifaceted crisis – the sub-prime mortgages that are causing so much damage to the financial system – is set to reach its peak in terms of defaults and repossessions over the next three years. And this, like the wider crisis, will lead to a credit crunch, falling profits and financial distress amongst companies, banks and governments. If the Mistrust If we factor in the resolution of credit problems over the next 2, 3 or 4 years, the remaining outcome will be the economic and social crisis itself – which is no small matter. It is impossible to predict how long the economic crisis itself will last, as we have entered a depression for which we have no historical precedent. The The Great Depression which began with the Crash of 1929 lasted a decade and required a world war to bring it to an end, and is the only point of reference, alongside what Japan has been enduring since 1990 (two decades). It is therefore clear that comparisons are difficult and dangerous, as the world today is a very different place.

However, we want to offer a glimmer of hope in the midst of Perfect Storm. During the second half of 2007 and throughout 2008, we were faced with the unknown: the collapse of a credit and financial house of cards on an unprecedented scale. This was accompanied by desperate bailouts from the world’s most powerful nations (and also from the less powerful ones, which are doing what they can within the limits imposed on them), in a display of unity and recognition of the gravity of the situation unlike anything seen before. Now, in 2009, we are fully aware of what we are facing, with the exception of a few unprofessional and political figures who have yet to realise the true extent of the situation. And this realisation that a dramatic immediate future lies ahead makes us less vulnerable, whereas over the past year and a half there were still many who were caught off guard.

The financial desert will be long and hard, and the economic desert – which is already beginning to cause serious social hardship – will be even worse. Unemployment, redundancy schemes and business closures will continue, and as benefits are phased out over time, the decline in consumption – and therefore in the economy – will become more pronounced. But now that we are in 2009, having braced ourselves and gritted our teeth, we stand a much better chance of reaching the light at the end of the tunnel, with our assets shielded from the minefield we first entered back in the summer of 2007. Financial uncertainty and mistrust are probably already subsiding, or will do so shortly, but the economic crisis and social hardship are set to last a long time.

«In Spain, you can see a light at the end of the tunnel… but it’s a lorry coming straight at you»

Xavier Sala-i-Martin

The Journey Through the Desert (I).

The word which, in our view, would best sum up the whole of last year – and, more specifically, the second half of 2008 – is Mistrust. A lack of confidence in the banking system which is creating a liquidity trap (Liquidity Trap) which is set to have very significant and dramatic consequences for the real economy, society and everyday life. The consequences of mistrust lead to a freeze in the flow of money, and as a result, investors are gripped by terrible doubts: Who are we going to lend our money to so that they can put it to work, whilst ensuring we have sufficient guarantees that they will be able to repay it on time and without the dreaded credit event (Credit Event)? Secondly: For how much money, profit or interest are we going to lend it? And finally: For how long is it sensible to lend our money to the lucky chosen one so that they can put it to work?

The answers to these questions are, of course, difficult and complex. But above all, we must always bear in mind that they must be tailored to the circumstances of each investor or wealth holder. And within each of these, there will be portions of assets that should be allocated in one way or another. Thus, a portfolio should always be allocated across a range of investments tailored to the needs, objectives, preferences, etc. of each individual. What is certain is that, at present, it is prudent to adapt the ‘Vital Balance Sheets’ to investment returns whose risk-return ratio has changed drastically, whilst not losing sight of the possibility of hyperinflation. despite the doubts.

Speaking of fixed-income investments, the flight to quality in 2008, or the flight to safety in terms of the quality and creditworthiness of investments, led to a fall in the returns on the (a priori) safest investments, such as the sovereign debt of developed countries and large, highly creditworthy companies. The simple reason is that when many people want to buy the same thing, its price rises, thereby reducing its yield. Now, almost halfway through 2009, following the mistrust generated by the fact that most companies are facing serious difficulties due to their inability to refinance their debts with financial institutions, many are once again lending their money almost indiscriminately by buying corporate debt issued by these firms. Demand for corporate fixed-income securities has soared over the last couple of months, particularly in recent weeks. And The lack of criteria in the selection process is leading to companies with very different capabilities when it comes to tackling their emissions being priced at very similar levels. Every day we see how large asset management firms and their respective advisers, are recommending programmes that we might call blue-chip companies and which are selected on the basis of criteria as outdated and dangerous as credit ratings or grandiose names. With a few honourable exceptions, issues are selected by financial institutions as suitable for their clients’ investment portfolios, based on nothing more than a very superficial analysis: news, credit default swaps, ratings and little else. And there are very few advisers who take the trouble and the time to study the balance sheets of the issuing companies in order to ascertain their financial capacity, and thus be able to repay the debt without the dreaded credit event. Furthermore, if that selection takes the form of a fixed-income investment fund, we will find that it contains a wide variety of intrinsic risks and lacks any reliable criteria in the analysis used. The result of all this is that, nowadays, bonds from issuers with very different financial situations are trading at the same price. And that distortion has been caused by the abuse of indiscriminate demand in a very difficult environment for safeguarding financial assets.

(To be continued…)

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