As we saw in «Like a wave, pasta came into my life» Part 1 y Part 2, We find very similar reactions in the face of a flood of millions from lottery winnings of any kind, or from various inheritances. The inability to manage a sudden fortune properly in the medium and long term – a fortune that one never knew how to build up but which came about suddenly – is essentially the same in Spain, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Honduras, El Salvador, Portugal, England, the USA or even China and South Korea themselves. The Jurassic Park syndrome It is very difficult to avoid a situation where a fortune coexists in time and space with people who did not create it. But it is not impossible with the right help, which must be specialised and, perhaps even more importantly, honest.
It is common knowledge that being wealthy in countries facing social and economic difficulties is dangerous. In fact, there are cities in large countries such as Brazil where wealth must be concealed and hidden to a degree that is truly very stressful. And it is understandable that, in certain environments characterised by poverty and social hardship, a moderately affluent lifestyle can dangerously attract the attention of the less well-off, putting the safety of the members of those wealthy families at risk.
That is one of the reasons why it is becoming increasingly common to see families in certain parts of the world seeking to relocate, either partially or entirely, their financial interests and their personal and family quality of life. This applies both to traditional fortunes and to sudden fortunes – such as those of people who, overnight, win the lottery or receive a substantial inheritance.
When such lottery winnings, large unexpected inheritances or traditional business fortunes are found in countries facing economic, social and/or political difficulties (as is the case with some of those mentioned), the more level-headed of the lucky recipients often wish not only to protect their families from the widespread crime in their city, but also to diversify their country risk in investments. In other words, in most cases it is highly advisable to channel at least part of that wealth into investments in first-world countries, where all manner of documentary guarantees and legal, financial and political safeguards do indeed exist. Indeed, many families blessed with such sudden wealth follow the example of many others who have taken the same path with fortunes built up through the hard work of entire generations – that is to say, both those with sudden fortunes and traditionally wealthy families. Social problems, public insecurity, the absence of legal, documentary or political safeguards, or simply the desire to take advantage of the opportunities for financial and family relocation afforded by a substantial fortune, are the compelling reasons behind the decision to broaden the geopolitical and economic horizons for the family’s wealth. Many of these families turn to advisory firms, consultancy firms and multi-family offices to help them with the complex process of shifting family investments and interests to Europe and the rest of the developed world.
Indeed, it is no easy task to relocate a family’s assets, either in full or in part, to distant countries, even though speaking the same language makes the process much easier. And it must be carried out in collaboration with specialist firms that can guarantee the correct full or partial relocation of those assets. This relocation of assets and investments can also include obtaining European Union residence permits and passports for family members who so wish: Whether this is for the education of the younger generations, helping them to settle in Europe to complete their studies; or simply because the whole family wishes to acquire Spanish nationality or that of any other EU country. Thus, what is a difficult task for any immigrant arriving in Europe in search of work is far more feasible for a wealthy family that relocates its financial and personal interests, either partially or in full, with the help of a family office specialised European firm. In fact, not only do we provide direct support to families throughout this process, but some of the leading legal and financial advisory firms in Latin America (Latam) are also already collaborating with family offices Spanish and European firms, committed to handling the transfer of their clients’ financial and family interests with the utmost discretion and professional rigour.
In certain parts of the world, simply possessing significant wealth or assets is not enough without the necessary international wealth management advice. Being wealthy in the right place is vital to being able to enjoy that wealth to the full, but so too is ensuring it is managed professionally and internationally, so that it can be passed on to future generations and to take advantage of a globalised investment landscape.
According to the statistics in this dshort, September is since 1950 the month with the most bearish average on the S&P; 500. Notice to navigators.
Of course, the uninterrupted rally for almost half a year seems likely to confirm September's weakness. But if we are looking for compelling reasons for the rise, they may also be enough to take the statistic since 1950 by storm.
In the meantime, as he said Marco Antonio Moreno, The economy continues indefinitely in Purgatory, and society, unconcerned with the stock markets, begins to suffer the crisis, also indefinitely.
Chemanel was found with a gunshot wound to the head. Aged 49, he apparently leaves behind a mansion, a hunting ground, an agricultural machinery company and three luxury cars. He also leaves behind a wife and two daughters.
The year 2003 is now a distant memory, when he was still a humble local council employee in a small rural village in Galicia. He led a normal, happy life. But those 9.5 million euros from that fateful lottery draw six years ago ruined his life.
To begin with, two months after the prize draw, he turned up at the town hall in his new red Ferrari. He was decked out in gold from head to toe – a watch, bracelets and necklaces. He bought some land where he set up his brand-new agricultural machinery hire business. An investment of a fifth of the prize money which, year after year, brought him more losses than profits and which he was never able to recoup. The locals wouldn’t hire out their machinery, so he had to convert the business into a haulage firm with dozens of lorries (the best ones) and staff (the locals). He eventually went into administration a few months before he shot himself.
There was also a sordid, dark episode in which he went missing for 24 hours and returned home bruised. He reported a «express kidnapping’ by criminals from the East. The police didn’t believe him. When he was later asked about those events, he replied in the Galician way: ‘AndYou’ll find out«
Apart from the cars, the jewellery and his inexperienced and incompetent squandering as a businessman, his life as a nouveau riche was not particularly ostentatious. He did not even indulge in excesses. He invested, lost and spent vast sums, but a great deal of his money also vanished on gifts, handouts, extortion and the scheming of various associates. His temperament soured and he withdrew into himself.
That 2003 Primitiva lottery win led to his financial and personal ruin. In short, those ten million drove him to take his own life in barely six years. His mansion, his hunting ground, his insolvency proceedings, his wife and daughters all miss him and remember what their loved one was like before the nightmare of the €9.5 million Primitiva win.
The grim list of sudden millionaires who have taken their own lives could be added to the long list of lives that the market crash has claimed and will continue to claim. Some of these suicides are linked exclusively to the financial crisis, but others are driven by a personal inability to manage such fortunes. Appropriate professional help would undoubtedly have prevented most of them.
Sudden fortunes in the form of lottery winnings, inheritances or high-profile careers (artists and sportspeople), where wealth is also accumulated suddenly over just a few years, require very specific wealth management and, above all, wealth coaching. Our specialisation in advising and coaching clients with sudden fortunes is something of which we are particularly proud at Cluster Family Office. Without that training provided by competent and honest professionals, the Jurassic Park syndrome It will be relentless, with ruin being the lesser of two evils.
We cannot stress this enough: unlike a traditional business or corporate fortune, with a sudden fortune there is no room for error and no second chances.
It has been almost two years since we wrote this article on the perverse nature of charging commissions for financial services and the benefits of converting them into fees. Only in this way can we ensure the independence and integrity (though not necessarily the competitiveness) of the advice we receive. And this applies not only to financial assets but also to our entire estate.
Fortunately for multi-family offices (and for their clients and the independence of their advice), the banking sector is light years away from considering such a change to its business model, and clearly prefers opacity and deception for the majority of its clients, who are incapable of even knowing or understanding the full extent of the rip-offs they face. Perhaps when they see their clients flocking to hire independent advisers whom they pay to filter the investment proposals that best suit them, the banking sector will also begin to consider that charging all-in-one, transparent and honest fees is the model to follow. If one day the banks evolve to that point, they will have just one task left: to become competent in their advisory services, for which they would need to retrain all their hordes of salespeople recruited and trained over so many years.
Here is the article from November 2007; I look forward to your comments:
«As everyone knows
that a fee is not the same as a commission. Etymologically, a fee honours the person receiving it, who is usually a self-employed professional, whereas a commission agent is not grants always the best reputation. It is a burden we all bear that banks charge all sorts of fees (small, medium, transparent, obscure and even AliDrool), but… What if bank charges were levied as a fixed fee or percentage of each customer’s total assets, regardless of the products and services they use?
Let’s think about it. Let’s think about it again. Questions arise fascinating, isn't it? For example, quantifying this all-in-onefee It could be as simple as applying the average profit from the bank’s current customer accounts as a percentage of the amount contributed by the saver or investor. In other words, for every euro the customer deposits with the bank, the bank deducts its one-off fee annually, half-yearly, quarterly or however it sees fit. Obviously, loans and mortgages would have to generate the cost of the money itself separately, with whatever margin the financial institution wishes to add, as it would not be fair for a customer who generates an asset for the bank to pay the same as one who generates a liability (or perhaps it would). But from there on, it’s the same for everyone.
This is just a light-hearted exercise, and I hope it will prompt some comments from you all, which I’m sure will be very interesting and insightful. Some of you may think it’s unfair for a casual saver to pay the same proportion as a more active investor who will be using a whole range of financial products and tools. At first glance, it may seem that way, but Let's have a look at it One more thing: what happens to a saver who neither wants nor knows how to invest their money beyond seeing it reflected in their savings account? They are easy prey for fund managers who kindly cause to invest their money in financial products that no member of their family can understand. This harassment is constant, relentless and ruthless. The money unemployed Placing money in a simple savings account or a fixed-term deposit is considered negligence on the part of the bank employee on duty, bordering on gross misconduct. This misnamed ‘adviser’ needs sell financial products that improve their clients’ operating results if they do not want to lose their job. Furthermore, they must do so exceptionally well if they hope to progress within the organisation and move from a customer-facing role to a more senior position—in other words, to go from a rank-and-file employee tocigarette lighter. I have personally met a few honest and dedicated bank managers who try to to do as little collateral damage as possible whilst barely meeting their commercial obligations, but they all feel uncomfortable with the work they do and long to one day be able to offer independent advice without the commercial pressure they feel is being exerted on them by their superiors. Obviously Only a lucky few will succeed. The rest will continue to live by the rule that has been etched into their very being: Sell or die.
Some of you might say that this commercial pressure is common to most of the work we do, and that’s true. But as I see it, it is infinitely more serious to sell inappropriately a financial investment product which, for example, consists of a collection of DVDs that we don’t need. Ethically speaking, there is no comparison: the significance and danger of negligence when it comes to our heritage is vital not only for us but also for our children. You don’t mess about with food.
In a scenario where a bank manager generated exactly the same profit for their firm, regardless of the volume of assets or the type of investment their clients made, the advice would be provided in a manner infinitamentity more appropriate and tailored to the needs and intentions of investors and savers. Even their personal relationship with them would improve substantially if, instead of selling to them, I simply provided them with a service. A service that would be worth a fixed percentage of the total amount of money customers have deposited with the bank. The professional expertise of the fund managers and the banks themselves would do the rest, and moreover, the monitoring of these fees by a competent body would be far simpler and more effective.
This scenario would be far more hygienic and convenient than the current one. Many of you will think it’s unfeasible or utopian; perhaps it is. But at the end of the day, it’s how a familyoffice any self-respecting to be, and therefore does not have its own financial products. Obviously, the bank should continue to develop its own products, but without shove them down their throats straight to the heart of the financially inexperienced customer – that is, the vast majority.
The current situation is unlikely to improve much with the MiFID, as reported Consumerist y Echevarri in his interesting articles. As he rightly says Echevarri: «…it ends up protecting financial institutions rather than customers.» More or less the same kind of exploitation we see on a daily basis will continue, since, unfortunately, bank profits depend largely on it.
Anyway, we just wanted to put this idea out there so that you can let us know what you think. It’s always good to give some thought to to question ourselves methods that do not have to be set in stone. Progress has always depended on this.»
You can find this on the website of The Healdsburg Housing Bubble yet another tool to help property investors. As well as being a useful tool, this new Google Maps feature allows us to see what is happening with prime and non-prime properties against the backdrop of the current property market crash. By zooming in to the right level, we can see red dots marking foreclosures in any area of the map.
If we use the map’s search function to look at cities such as downtown Miami, we can see how heavily it has been affected by these court-ordered closures. The same, or worse, is happening along the entire central coastline from Los Angeles right down to San Diego. It is also interesting to see how the border at Tijuana in Baja California clearly highlights the difference in seizures between two very distinct economies and societies.
However (and never has a phrase been more apt), the island of Manhattan is relatively free of red dots compared to its surrounding areas: the Upper West Side, the entire perimeter of Central Park, Midtown East, the West Village, Battery Park, Greenwich Village, Downtown and even Chinatown. In contrast, on the Upper East Side east of 3rd Avenue (more than four or five blocks from Central Park), and generally throughout Midtown, they are more common. But above all, we’ll see many more repossessions outside Manhattan, in areas such as West New York, Jersey, Newark, etc…
This is the major difference in how property values depreciate between one of the many small beach houses along the coast of Florida or California, and unique, prime properties situated in certain neighbourhoods on a limited, unique and irreplaceable island such as Manhattan, where tourism This summer, its streets are more crowded than ever. The fact is that this property bubble – be it American, Irish or Spanish – shows us that during bull markets, when everything is exorbitantly expensive, the differences between prime properties and those that aren’t become dangerously blurred. When we wake up from this dream, the market (not the valuations) slaps us in the face with the true current value of our properties. But whilst owners of prime properties suffer temporary falls in solid values that will recover in the future, other investors will have paid (or will have to pay for a lifetime and a half) prices that their generation is unlikely ever to see again, at least until inflation devours them.
It’s not a joke or a witty rhyme, but a newspaper headline. According to this article from El Economista, the number of Spanish fund management companies that have notified the CNMV this summer of an increase in their fees has more than tripled. Some believe this is due to the fall in returns on fixed-term deposits and on savings in general, which is causing money to flow back into collective investment funds (and as demand rises, fund managers are taking the opportunity to raise prices). But the reality is that, amidst the frenzy surrounding fixed-term deposits offering above-market rates—which highlighted the banks’ accounting desperation—and with massive outflows from almost all funds, the fees charged by these IICs they did not fall substantially. And the same can be said if we look for the reason in the inflow or outflow of money on the stock market.
Perhaps one of the reasons for this summer rise is the fall in asset management firms’ revenues, which have seen a sharp decline in assets under management over the past year, as well as the virtual elimination of the HWM and performance fees in their various forms. Faced with this scenario of lean times and falling commission income, fund management companies have opted for the same strategy as the Spanish Government: tax increases. This ‘bread for today’ approach is deeply ingrained in these parts. However, with so much volatility, fleeting euphoria and the need to recoup in speculative markets what has been lost in the real labour economy, the fund managers are unlikely to go hungry tomorrow either.
We are still living through turbulent times, including on the stock market despite the current rally, with extremely high volatility and nervousness. And this turbulence opens the door to excessive fees. Let me explain: unlike in calm markets, where modest returns call for commissions that do not unduly erode returns, high market volatility provides the perfect cover for expensive commissions. If a client makes a profit in a highly volatile stock market environment, they will probably do so in substantial amounts and won’t mind paying large and well-deserved (?) fees; whereas if they have suffered losses in a highly volatile environment, they will probably not find it so bad to lose a further 2 or 3 points on top of the 20 or 30% that the market has already taken from them. In both scenarios, there will be a volatile and chaotic market to blame or hold responsible.
Pilar, Pilar… you’ve missed the point of our article. And of our blog, too. Happiness is one of our guiding principles when it comes to wealth management. Therefore, a celebration – the sort where you really go all out – is not only advisable but also essential. A lavish treat for yourself. What we mean is that you shouldn’t buy expensive items that take up a significant proportion of your wealth before you’ve generated sufficient income from it – such as a house, a luxury car or a yacht, etc… But a party, a celebration, a trip, a seafood feast, a treat, countless other indulgences, etc., etc… of course that’s perfectly fine. If your new fortune doesn’t make you happy, what the hell’s the point of it then? But bear in mind, this must be compatible with the fortune growing and being passed on to the heirs of your choosing, if that is your wish.
A fortune of a certain size should fulfil your desires and bring you happiness, whilst also growing at a healthy rate. If this isn’t the case, you’re not doing it right, or you’ve got it wrong, and your windfall has one less zero than the euphoria led you to believe. And it shouldn’t just satisfy your own whims, but, as you rightly say, those of the people around you (your niece’s driving school). Remember that relatives and friends will come out of the woodwork, but if that satisfies you and fits in with your wealth’s ability to generate income and grow, then go ahead. Of course!
If your car is 15 years old, it’s definitely time for a new one. If the new car is a mere trifle compared to the lottery prize, you can go and buy it today. But if that red convertible costs a pretty penny, it might be wiser to buy it in a quarter or two or three’s time. After all, you’ve been driving the same old banger for 15 years, so a few more months won’t make much difference if it means doing the right thing. What’s more, with a bit of luck, the carmine red one you fancy will have to be special-ordered from the factory, and by the time it comes off the production line, the growth in your fortune will have paid for it in full. To do otherwise is to burn through your money in a capricious, compulsive, stupid and irreversible manner.
As I’ve told you before, knowing what lies beyond Chinchón should not hinder the growth potential of a considerable fortune, if what we want is for that prize to change our whole life (and that of our heirs) and not just for a few years.
Be careful with your cousin’s business because Not only do you risk what you invest, but you also face the risk of future losses. Losses that could easily exceed the cost of your trip to Canada and your big splurge. A bad business deal can be a bottomless pit that leaves you penniless without even having had the chance to enjoy or blow your fortune. It could also ruin your relationship with your cousin, although that would be the least of your worries, because, as I’ve told you before, you’ll have cousins popping up everywhere. I’m not saying you shouldn’t invest part of a prize in a business, but you need to be very wary of the dent a business venture can make in your fortune. After all, if the chances of that business succeeding are very high, why haven’t you tried it with money from the bank? And if they aren’t, you’d be better off spending your lottery prize on something more down-to-earth.
You shouldn’t worry that you’ll get bored because your friends are working and you aren’t, or because you have more free time than your friends. In fact It will be difficult to maintain some of your social circle, either because of conflicting schedules and/or unbearable jealousy. But don’t worry, because you’ll make new friends who’ll have just as much free time and money to spend as you do, and what’s more, you won’t have to treat them. But you won’t save any more money with them, because, even though everyone pays their own way, your activities will be more expensive. Your main focus, as well as enjoying life (because remember, you’ll be richer but not necessarily live longer), can – or indeed should – be the learning how to manage your own assets. This coaching is something we provide to many of our clients so that they become less and less dependent and increasingly capable of making decisions regarding their wealth. In other words, that his abilities should be as close as possible to those he would have had if he had been able to build up that fortune himself, rather than having it bestowed upon him (Jurassic Park syndrome).
The issue of housing is directly linked to improving quality of life. And it’s something that simply has to happen. But in the current climate in Spain, you shouldn’t buy a property at all; instead, you should rent the one you like best. With its little garden, library, east and west wings. But as a rental. If you do buy a property because you can’t sleep without bricks under your pillow, make sure you choose it very carefully in terms of country, city and neighbourhood, and ensure it offers a solid return through rental income and retains its value in the face of cyclical depreciation. I repeat, to live in Spain, choose whatever you like best but for at least a few years, let’s keep it as a rental.
As you can see, my dear Pilar, the poles of the awning don’t necessarily have to fall over. Nor the rings, for that matter. But even so, and having learnt that there is a way to enjoy a fortune whilst managing it properly, you are entirely free to decide that your estate should come to an end with you. Or even long before that. After all, it would be yours and yours alone, until you start to share it, whether voluntarily or involuntarily.
Thank you very much, Pilar, for your friendly and insightful comment. I hope that reading our posts helps you realise that joining the ranks of impoverished millionaires must be a wholly voluntary (and reckless) act. You are absolutely right that Being a millionaire isn’t a state, because if that’s all there is to it, it will be short-lived. But the downfall of someone who spent months or even a few years riding the wave of an inheritance or a lottery win (sudden windfall), it’s much harder even though the sand seems soft. Because of the tremendous impact caused by the speed that had been reached, and also because of the despondency of someone who knows that in their bloody life they’ll never be able to stand on a board again. Despite the previous video (the exception that proves the rule), these sudden moments of fortune are unique, and there’s no room for manoeuvre to put right the mistakes made. That’s just the way it is.
Following on from the article we published at the end of July: «What you would have done with your lottery prize«, we’ve received a lovely comment from Pilar. We liked its content and its sincere, humorous tone. We’re publishing it in full and will add our own comments later:
«For some time now, four or five times a year, I’ve been spending a little money on treating myself to one of the most satisfying pleasures in my life. I buy a «Primitiva» lottery ticket and for a few days I find myself thinking, ‘What shall I buy? What shall I buy?’ Travelling, buying and renovating a lovely village house, helping out the people I love financially, a whole library… A couple of times, however, I’ve been on the verge of panicking when, whilst checking if I’ve got the winning numbers, I hear there’s a jackpot of over a billion (pesetas, of course). At that moment, I’ve actually felt a bit shaky (please, please, don’t let me win it all on my own) at the thought of what to do with so much money. I’ve almost gone so far as to think about how to get rid of it. A millionaire… well, yes, but a millionaire in stages.
So, the day I came across your website, I breathed a sigh of relief: if my fears do come true, here’s the solution. ‘Don’t worry, sweetheart,’ I told myself (I’m very kind to myself), ‘just leave the money in the bank for a week and get some advice – there are expert professionals here to guide you through these complexities.’.
But after reading this blog post, I’m not so sure anymore. I don’t think you’ll be much help. Here’s what it says: «how I want to live from that moment onwards» (direct quote)
First of all, I want to celebrate. What’s the point of an occasion like this if you can’t share it with the people you love? And I can’t see myself phoning my brother to say: «I’ve won the lottery, let’s go and stuff ourselves with prawns, but bring your card, as we’ll split the bill – it’s just that right now I’ve got it all tied up in a fixed-term deposit until next year, and as I’m still paying off the mortgage…»
I’d like to share this next. My third niece has signed up for driving lessons. Shall I splash out a bit and pay for them? And I’ve got a dozen nieces and nephews (their mums and dads are family too – hey, you! – and they might be hoping for a proper treat).
I want to keep my friendships going. A bit of extra cash would come in handy for that. Guys, I’ll treat you to dinner and a jazz concert! But it’s a bit of a hassle. Tagging along for free every time would spoil the good vibes. And besides, they won’t have as much free time as I do – my friends have jobs, after all. You’ve got to spend your spare cash sensibly so as not to throw things out of balance.
My car is already fifteen years old, and today it’s back at the garage again. If I didn’t live in the middle of the countryside, I might well buy a travel pass with the prize money. Do I have to wait until it’s earned enough interest to replace it? By the way, my partner’s car is from the same era, and when the road goes uphill, you have to pedal to get to the top.
Oh my, that trip to Canada you’ve been longing for… the time has come to discover what lies beyond Chinchón.
I want a job. I’ve already said that all the people I enjoy spending time with are working. And from now on, I’ll have too much free time to devote solely to myself and my partner. How about starting a business – «that thing» I’ve always wanted to do? And what’s more, your cousin has suggested you invest in a project she’s working on? Whatever you think is best, darling – of course I’d be happy to.
And finally, I want a new home. One that’s better quality and a bit bigger – yes, I’d like a couple more bedrooms. And a little garden. And a library. And two parking spaces. Or three, for that matter…
Hmm… I’m afraid that trying to reconcile the above with your advice and having the poles of my sunshade fall over are one and the same thing. Oh well. There’s no way round it. We’re destined to swell the ranks of the impoverished millionaires. And I’m not at all sure I’d want it any other way.
It strikes me that being a millionaire isn’t a status, like being from Valencia, but rather a profession, like being a plumber. To be a millionaire, you need skill and a calling; money is merely the tool. That’s why, if the money falls into the hands of, say, Dalamar, I imagine he’ll make a very flash millionaire and hardly «broke» at all; and if it falls into «our» hands, it’ll sweep into our lives like a wave; we’ll ride the cash right to the top, and then we’ll take a proper tumble. (The sand’s soft, isn’t it?)
There are many highly respected and eminent voices predicting an imminent crash in the equity markets. And they have good reason to do so. But we must not forget that La Bolsa and La Razón They don’t always get on, even though they’re old friends. There are times when they don’t even look each other in the face; however, as time goes by they usually make up. But only temporarily, until the next outburst, gaffe, shock, blunder, childish prank, misdeed or witty remark of the volatile and chaotic stock market, which will once again undermine its relationship with Reason for an unforeseeable period of time.
Some they overlook the Reason and they’re only concerned with the Stock market, following it through its ups and downs wherever it goes, with a few managing to understand and interpret it well enough to benefit from it, at least for a short while. But many of us cannot understand one without the other in the medium and long term, despite their repeated disagreements.
It seems clear that, at present, Razón and Bolsa are going through one of their periods of squabbling and estrangement, but personally I like to try, from time to time, to look beyond the obvious, as we did in the banking meme. It’s not that I’m naturally suspicious, but it wouldn’t hurt to consider the possibility that, even though they appear to be at loggerheads, they might actually still be very good friends and, as the song goes, shake hands under the table:
Let us imagine that perhaps we are misinterpreting the sentiments of Reason, and that in reality the stock market is following criteria similar to those of its partner through thick and thin. Perhaps the behaviour of an exuberant stock market is more reasonable than it seems, now that the US financial system has overcome the imminent threat of collapse. The ground that had vanished from beneath our feet (and I am not referring to the stock market floor but to that of systemic risk) was not regained until early 2009. Let us remember that a global collapse of the system was a real possibility as recently as 10 months ago.
Back then, when – despite the scepticism of the majority – the banks’ zero value could be justified (in an impeccable and pioneering manner by Investorsconundrum), we also seek to go beyond the obvious logic. And we try, in the article The Broken Bank on 3 November 2008, we sought to find arguments to justify the banks retaining a certain value despite being bankrupt both in accounting and practical terms. In short, we tried to find reasons where there appeared to be none. And we found them. It turned out that the irrational reasons the factors we had sensed were necessary for the banking sector to be worth more than zero were confirmed. Proof of this was what we were able to write six months later in The Broken Bank II. And ever since we said in that article of 27 April: «»If we’re thinking about a high-risk speculative investment, perhaps now is the time to buy shares in major US banks", Bank of America’s shares have risen by 70% and those of Goldman Sachs by more than 40%.
Perhaps that hand under the tablecloth It is the elimination of systemic risk that is driving the current stock market frenzy. Given that the stability of the financial system has been guaranteed, with hyperinflation on the horizon – a scenario that is also reasonably plausible – with the share prices of financial institutions rising sharply from the depths of hell, with macroeconomic figures showing a slowdown in the rate of decline in the US, and with interest rates practically at zero, etc., perhaps their apparent indifference is not what it seems. And so we should not expect them to make up in the form of significant falls or new lows, but rather to continue their clandestine romance beneath the gaze of most analysts. Of course, if the rises take hold over time, more and more analysts will bend down to take a closer look under the tablecloth...
…But let’s not jump to conclusions, because what is clear is that Bolsa and Razón are not on speaking terms at the moment.
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