Quizás los términos que más éxito han tenido desde los inicios de este blog son los de Financos e Inversópatas. Ambos me parece que son (somos todos) de alguna forma responsables de la situación a la que ha llegado nuestra economía.
Sin ir más lejos, el abuso de titulizaciones de RF nos ha llevado a la actual crisis de crédito. Pero también el abuso de estructurados y sobreestructurados sobre derivados, ha llevado a más de uno a la ludopatía financiera. Pero además con el agravante de que un ludópata puede prohibirse a sí mismo el acceso a bingos y casinos, pero jamás conseguirá que le prohiban la entrada a una entidad financiera con flamantes carteles atractivos que le incitan a lo peor.
La responsabilidad, a mi entender, es del todo compartida. Del mismo modo que la telebasura sólo tiene cabida si existe oferta y demanda. Es decir, «profesionales» de la comunicación que se rebajan a ello, y también demanda de televidentes con poco cerebro que consumen estos bodrios.
En fin, os dejo con la entrada original de hace un año, donde se intuía ya algún tipo de crisis inminente:
Sé que no os impresionarán las cifras económicas que a continuación os voy a mencionar. Son datos reales y públicos a los que nuestra mente se ha acostumbrado muy rápidamente. La cascada de cifras negativas que salen a diario nos hacen insensibles a su significado, pero cada una de ellas tiene, no sólo significado sino repercusión macroeconómica que desemboca en afectaciones de bolsillos personales.
No olvidemos que al final de la cadena económica estamos las personas y los datos terminan traduciéndose en bienestar o malestar individual. El dinero, el trabajo, los ingreso, los gastos… todo se ve afectado de una forma u otra, tarde o temprano, por esas cifras económicas que nos llueven constantemente, y que desde hace unos meses son pésimas. La globalización en las comunicaciones hace que veamos imágenes detalladas e inmediatas de catástrofes naturales al otro lado del planeta, pero no dejan de ser fenómenos locales de los que la globalización sólo nos informa. Pero en economía la globalidad no sólo nos informa sino que también nos afecta directamente. Acostumbrarnos a oír y leer cifras económicas negativas y curtir nuestros sentidos, como si se tratara de la noticia de la inundación de un remoto país en el telediario de las tres, no nos evitará la afectación personal.
Este mes de mayo 2008 las solicitudes de ejecuciones hipotecarias en los EE.UU. han aumentado un 48% respecto al mismo mes del 2007. Si contabilizamos también los avisos oficiales de incumplimientos, 261.255 familias han faltado a sus obligaciones hipotecarias, o sea casi uno de cada mil habitantes de la primera potencia económica mundial. En los últimos 29 meses siempre ha aumentado la cifra interanual de ejecuciones hipotecarias. En concreto éste último mes 1 de cada 483 hogares ha sido ejecutado promediando todo el país, pero hay estados como Nevada donde la proporción es 1 de cada 118 hogares. También California y Arizona están sufriendo la terrible resaca de embargos después de la borrachera hipotecaria de los últimos 8 años.
Otra cifra escalofriante: En España un 10% de las hipotecas superan el valor de los inmuebles hipotecados. No sé a vosotros, pero a mi me dio mucho que pensar, sobre todo si tenemos en cuenta que se obvian muchos peritajes obsoletos que a nadie le conviene actualizar.
Los embargados, o los que lo van a estar, no sólo pierden en favor del banco su mayor o menor porción de vivienda que ya era suya, sino que también ven como el petróleo afecta fatalmente a sus bolsillos. Si esta crisis energética se hubiera producido antes, se habrían ahorrado algunas cuotas de su hipoteca, empeorando aun más los balances de sus bancos acreedores. Dicho de otro modo, el incremento de precios hará que muchos ya no puedan hacer frente a sus créditos, provocando más y más ejecuciones. Llegados a este punto, si está siendo tan vital el desplome de los intereses en EE.UU. para salvaguardar el sistema financiero lo es aun más, si cabe, la moderación en la escalada energética. Un crudo a 150, 200 o 250 US$ por barril hará inútiles las costosísimas medidas adoptadas por FED, BCE y otros muchos bancos centrales. Los descensos de tipos, las inyecciones de liquidez al sistema… todo se lo llevará por delante la asfixia económica energética y su inflación de primera ronda. El G8 ya advirtió de este peligro el pasado sábado con comentarios inusualmente agresivos.
The distopía petrolífera ha desplazado de los titulares al credit crunch, pero ambas crisis conviven coincidiendo en tiempo y espacio. Y esta convivencia de dos escenarios tan graves es inaudita, histórica y espeluznante. Además existen efectos colaterales derivados de éstas que agravan la perspectiva, como por ejemplo la vergonzosa crisis alimentaria del tercer mundo, causada por la súbita sobreproducción de biocombustible, que se extiende peligrosamente también al segundo mundo.
Algunos no se dieron cuenta de la gravedad de la situación hasta el pasado mes de Enero, cuando la bolsa tuvo un breve periodo espasmódico. Pero como no fue más que un «coitus interruptus» y algunos siguen asociando exclusiva y torpemente la palabra «crack» al de 1929, muchos siguieron (incluso alguno todavía sigue) pensando que si las bolsas no se desploman será porque la cosa no está tan mal.
Los ciclos han desaparecido y el nuevo orden económico global todavía nos resulta caótico. Un caos que comprenderemos con el tiempo. Esta crisis es tan inaudita e histórica que ni siquiera un crack bursátil tradicional nos puede guiar en el camino del actual escenario. Ya desde el pasado verano venimos diciendo que nuestra economía de hoy formará parte de los libros de texto económicos de las generaciones futuras. Pero vamos camino ya de tesis doctoral.
El otro día un director regional de una conocida banca privada española me dijo: «El único motivo que tienen las bolsas para subir, es que no existe ningún motivo«. Frase lapidaria donde las haya, sobre todo viniendo de un cargo como el suyo. Esta crisis es The Big One, sin duda. Quizás nos daría alguna clave releer el artículo de mi colega GFO «Inflacionar o Morir».
Para acabar os dejo con un fragmento del comentario que hizo Manuelmad (lo siento pero no sé dónde linkarte) a nuestro artículo de Mad Max, y que suscribo totalmente:
«Igual vivo en el mundo de la alegría, pero prefiero pensar que los años que tengo por delante van a ser los años de mayor desarrollo tecnológico y cultural de toda la historia, precisamente por la crisis que se nos está viniendo encima. Hace poco leí a un artículo sobre el milagro de Singapur, un país que no tenía nada y que hasta hace muy poco era tierra de mosquitos y enfermedades. El reportero preguntaba a un empresario como lo habían conseguido, la respuesta fue que la escasez da eficiencia y la eficiencia da riqueza. Momentos como estos son los que cambian el desarrollo del mundo. Si son para mejor o para peor, eso ya depende de la óptica con la que cada uno lo mire.»
«Si el centro neurálgico del poder empresarial con las mayores y mejores multinacionales ha desaparecido, ¿qué no le podría suceder a nuestro patrimonio que es infinitamente más vulnerable?» Desde los inicios del Family Office tomamos esta frase, que se refiere a la trágica destrucción del World Trade Center, como ejemplo para tratar de hacer ver la necesidad de blindar nuestros patrimonios y consolidarlos a través del tiempo. Se ha comentado muchas veces que las grandes fortunas también están expuestas a todo tipo de inclemencias que pueden mermar su patrimonio y necesitan más aún, si cabe, una correcta planificación financiera orientada a satisfacer las necesidades personales de la familia (P.G.R.). Normalmente hemos aludido a personas que han recibido una súbita inyección de dinero sin estar preparadas para gestionarlo, tales como los agraciados por algún tipo de lotería, los perceptores de grandes herencias o incluso poseedores de tierras de cultivo súbitamente recalificadas, pero también otras veces hemos aludido a personas ricas que han sabido ganar su dinero y piensan que también sabrán mantenerlo y hacerlo crecer. Por difícil de entender que pueda resultar, ganar dinero y gestionar un patrimonio son disciplinas completamente distintas.
Y qué mejor que servirse de un artículo que publicaba el New York Times el pasado Domingo para demostrar la necesidad de dicha planificación hasta para las fortunas más grandes de Manhattan. En él se narran anécdotas que pueden parecer banales, como el hecho de que los ricos estén cortando gastos lujosos (cortes de pelo de 350$ o alquileres de jet a 10.000$ la hora) debido a la actual crisis, pero que esconden un grave problema de fondo: la nula presencia de un Balance Vital que hubiese tenido en cuenta dichos gastos y hubiese adecuado el patrimonio y los ingresos para poder satisfacer esos caprichos.
Siguiendo con el artículo, voy a destacar los párrafos que me parecen más significativos y que demuestran claramente que cualquier fortuna, por grande que sea, está expuesta a los vaivenes económicos si no se ha trabajado con ella correctamente. Además, también quiero resaltar las angustias que conlleva el verse en una situación de este tipo.
Una abogada matrimonialista, Nancy Chemtob, cuenta que un cliente suyo le confesó recientemente que su patrimonio había disminuido de $20 millones a $8 millones, y que estaba preocupado por si su mujer le dejaba. «El hombre se había llegado a endeudar para poder mantener su nivel de vida y no confesarle a su mujer dicha pérdida de riqueza». Otra persona que proporciona servicios a las personas de alto nivel patrimonial, Cassie Rosenthal, regente de una galería en Chelsea, dice que «desde que empezó la crisis subprime, y sobre todo desde comienzos de año, algunos coleccionistas quieren vender piezas que antes tenían precios prohibitivos». Comentó también que «cuando las transacciones se cierran rápido, ellos están contentos, porque necesitan ese dinero con urgencia». Un nutricionista que trabaja con muchos ejecutivos de Wall Street, confiesa que sus clientes «han estado comiendo y bebiendo más durante los últimos 6 meses». Por último, Clay Burwell, entrenador personal de ejecutivos afirma que «un año comiendo más, bebiendo más y trabajando más horas ha empezado a pasar factura a su salud», y apostilla: «los veo llegar al gimnasio como si tuvieran una nube negra sobre sus cabezas».
Todas estas desgracias, porque verse en aprietos por motivos económicos siempre es una desgracia, sea cual sea el tamaño de la fortuna, se podían haber evitado perfectamente. Con la elaboración de un Balance Vital lo que se pretende es determinar las necesidades presentes y futuras de la familia, para después, a través de una óptima gestión del patrimonio y de los ingresos que se tengan, poder satisfacer dichas necesidades, cumpliendo siempre con la premisa de crecimiento de la riqueza a largo plazo. Verse en la situación de tener que desprenderse de queridas obras de arte o de renunciar a lujosos caprichos para disponer de más efectivo, por no hablar del deterioro en la salud personal causado por estas inquietudes económicas, es algo que jamás debería haber sucedido si el asesoramiento recibido por estas personas hubiese sido el correcto. El caso más flagrante sin duda alguna es la incapacidad de blindar un patrimonio que se menciona en el ejemplo del principio. Se habla de un millonario americano cuya riqueza se ha reducido en $12 millones. Seguramente, en esta época de crisis e incertidumbre, este ejemplo es cercano a más de uno (lamentablemente), bien porque lo ha sufrido en sus propias carnes, bien porque tiene algún conocido en esta situación.
No estoy diciendo con ello que un patrimonio no pueda disminuir nunca. En la planificación financiera puede haber una parte destinada a inversiones más arriesgadas, susceptible de sufrir pérdidas. Lo que se critica aquí es la ausencia de un diseño que establezca qué porcentaje del patrimonio se dedica a cada perfil de inversión y, sobre todo, la ausencia de blindaje de la mayoría de la riqueza, que permita preservarla y hacerla aumentar a un ritmo constante con el paso del tiempo.
The evidence has now convinced even the most optimistic observers, and it is no longer a matter of debate that the era of cheap energy is well and truly over. At least for the next generation. The three conditions necessary for the collapse have now come to pass:
A historic rise in energy demand in emerging economies such as China, India, etc.
Decline in oil production due to depletion.
The lack of sufficiently advanced and widespread alternative energy solutions.
As for the first factor, it is obvious that the main player is China, with 1,300,000,000 people whose government has embarked on this path of state capitalism. Their growing demand has only just begun, and if India follows in their footsteps even slightly, the planet will have to meet the energy needs of a further 1,000,000,000 people. The figures for these emerging economies are so overwhelming that the West and its vanity are left looking powerless and pitiful.
The second factor is perhaps the most worrying, and yet the one that has been most predictable. The zenith or peak oil (although many have seen it as a box-office high) is a evidence for almost 10 years now. But we have stubbornly refused to pay any attention to it until the price per barrel has risen 2.5-fold over the last year and a half. And we say it was predictable because we have seen it rise tenfold over the last decade, as all the expert opinions were all pointing towards the end of the era of cheap oil.
It should be borne in mind that current prices make it possible to exploit fields where extraction costs previously exceeded the required rate of return. But in most of the large, long-established traditional fields, crude oil no longer flows as freely as it once did. Extracting the second half of a field’s reserves is much more costly and slow – very slow indeed. The crude becomes much thicker and must be pumped, and the difficulties multiply. The picture is therefore very different in a young well in a young field, where the liquid gold gushes forth with vigour and barrels flow freely and ceaselessly. The large, traditional deposits are now producing at a snail’s pace, yielding little and at high cost, and despite technical advances, production costs and volumes will never return to what they once were. Just like life itself…
It is true that today’s offshore platforms bear no resemblance to those of a decade ago; today, drilling reaches depths of up to 3,000 metres, whereas in the past, drilling beyond 300 metres was considered a risky operation. Furthermore, the precision of the surveys and, above all, of the drilling operations (carried out at a pre-determined angle and in a pre-determined area with an accuracy of just a couple of metres) means that extraction is much more precise. But the depletion of resources is inevitable and we must to go in search of new cheese, with new flavours that will surprise us, as the well-known fable goes.
The third factor in this perfect storm has a great deal to do with human behaviour. Foresight and long-term planning are virtually non-existent when it comes to humanity as a whole. Not even politicians tend to anticipate problems beyond their own terms of office, and in most parts of the world there is scarcely a political class to speak of. Alternative energy sources are still in their infancy and cannot yet serve as a viable alternative to our dependence on liquid fuel. We will only strive to achieve alternative solutions when they are not alternatives but mandatory measures. Sadly, with a few exceptions, this is how the human race behaves on a global scale.
With the price of a barrel exceeding 140 $, we begin to feel the pinch. Transport is affected; protests, strikes and so on begin. Any palliative fiscal measures that European governments might take will be nothing more than a stopgap. At least not until a decision is taken to generate alternative energy on a massive scale, and to achieve this, the problem must be made a matter of national importance and drastic strategic measures must be taken. Let us hope it is only a matter of time before we set out resolutely on this path, but the sad truth is that we will only do so when the price per barrel becomes sufficiently suffocating.
The world’s poorest people are already suffering the consequences of the sudden, burgeoning production of biofuel, which is driving up the price of the raw materials that form the basis of their diet. A despicable and shameful famine. But there is also the danger that dependence on exorbitantly expensive oil will persist long enough for the damage to the world’s economies to become too severe. The current uncertainty centres on whether we will manage to switch to alternative energy sources in time, before suffering a genuine economic collapse that would be almost impossible to reverse. If not, the energy deficit will prove unbearable for the fundamentals of the world’s major economies, and the consequences of this deterioration could trigger the worst global recession in history. The following chart shows the prediction of certain doomsayers, whose views we are, however, far from sharing:
Personally, I firmly believe that we will be able to preserve these fundamentals and that the First World’s need and instinct for survival (the Third World, unfortunately, cannot do any more) will lead us to find a viable alternative to accompany the multiple crises, hardships and other restrictive measures.
I remember a certain well-known, short-sighted economic analyst who, at the height of the credit crisis last August, said off the record something along the lines of: «The credit crisis is the worst in history. What else could possibly be worse for the global economy? The oil crisis is an old familiar foe whose consequences are entirely predictable»… They’ll never learn, my dear and much-admired Nassim, they’ll never learn.
Saudi Arabia continues to «reassure» us with its now-familiar line that «there will be oil for everyone», but I was taught to be wary of anyone who claims to have a good hand but refuses to show it; perhaps the good hand is for the Saudis, or perhaps not even that. If information is power, it is clear that the West is very vulnerable in the face of uncertainty over actual oil reserves. And yet the transition to a new energy model is dangerously far from becoming a strategic matter of state. Meanwhile, other short-sighted people are up in arms because a Spanish electricity company might be bought out by another European one «for strategic reasons». Come on, politicians: ‘Strategy’ is written with a capital S. But as I was taught to take personal responsibility for everything that happens, all of us living in the developed world share responsibility for having elected our leaders.
«We must not lose faith in humanity, which is like the ocean: it is not tainted just because some of its drops are dirty.»
Mahatma Gandhi.
Let’s hope that Mad Max doesn’t cease to be science fiction and become a mere caricature of reality dystopian.
Siguiendo con la sana costumbre de releer a toro pasado algunos de nuestros artículos, hoy recordamos los errores estratégicos que cometen la mayoría de patrimonios medios y pequeños, contrastando con las directrices que siguen mayoritariamente los HNWI, o sea los grandes patrimonios bien gestionados.
Como is nuestra vocación en este blog, intentamos trasladar y adaptar estas estrategias a los que podríamos llamarMedium o LowNetWorthIndividuals. Como curiosidad podemos releer las reflexiones que hicimos hace un año respecto al panorama inmobiliario y el uso abusivo que se hizo de ese tipo de inversiones. Y también resulta lamentable ver cómo ha evolucionado la RV que fue el refugio de muchos inversores que dejaron de confiar en los inmuebles como valor sólido para sus activos.
Aquí tenéis nuestra entrada original de hace un año:
We have received an anonymous comment to our article Citisoluciones, the Networking in the service of CitiBank. Rest in peace the financial independence of Kiyosaki. The fact that we are publishing it does not mean that we subscribe to all of its content, but it seems to us to be as raw as it is sadly sincere, and we think it deserves to be read in full and in the form of a post. We have transcribed it exactly as the author wrote it, without changing a single comma:
«I don't usually enter forums or anything like this because I consider that nobody ever enters to applaud, but in this case, and as a particular experience, I will be very very objective.I am a DVL of the company Citi...y really, I haven't had a significant income yet, and when it has started to pay off, with the drop from USA in the bags...which by the way....Citigroup no longer LEADS the list forbes...now it's number 7...it's a good number, but it's not THE FIRST COMPANY WITH THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL ASSETS. income has fallen to the floorThe crisis has really hit, but it's depressing when your equipment falls apart, because once you've sold your family members insurance, the investment etc...and you manage to climb a few «rungs to the so-called success» The time is over, because nowadays no customer will be fia of the bags..who rents a 12% OF WHAT !There are many, many people that should not be in Citi, and this is not to discriminate, but they discredit a way of working or earning a living, of someone who can do it well...that is to say, it cannot come to a macarrilla with a tie, who has no idea whether Values are spelled with a B or a V , to make you an investment fund, that maybe in a remote village in Cuenca or Soria ,It works, but in a city so «classic»and «conservative» as Madrid, not "conservative" as Madrid, not "conservative" as Madrid. works...and I regret that because it is hechar stones on my own roof, as it has been a personal failure in a «supposed business» to undertake, in which, it is true, you do not invest a millionaire, but my time is worth millions, like everyone else's, and I have stopped seeing my young children for a year and a half to carry out a business that would give me «financial independence» and in the end, I have returned to my old business.Look gentlemen, I will achieve financial independence by working from sunrise to sunset, even in two businesses, or by working on a freelance basis. ajenta , why not? studying (for real) and learning more every day, to keep up to date... but I refuse to kick me the streets selling the products, which moreover has Citibank, I am «convincing» my friends that this is the deal of the century and selling them that Citigroup is the best of the best, wasting my time, so that the commissions can be shared out by my Rl , Rvp and so on.... I understand that in America , that is (or was) of a bestial success, but here in Spain we don't work like that...and it's such a different system that it will take many years for this to go ahead, if it ever does. it worked here when the economy was doing well, and, as is often the case in the marketing relational, they was very well to the founders, and I am very happy for them, because it is true that there is a lot of human qualities in Citi, But those of us who are just starting out have such a hard job ahead of us that I don't think anyone will reach the figures that we «sell you» in principle.I'm very sorry to say it, but I keep seeing that there are many people who are «in the middle of a crisis".«self-deception»I'm not saying it's a bad job...but don't defend it tooth and nail, because nowadays...and for only a year, Ing, and other banking companies are doing the same, and some customers have already made my face red in the face, as these banks are much better known, they market many more products than Citi...and the training of commercial staff is light years ahead of that of the Citi.... also if you have a password for the Intranet from Citisoluciones, and if you look at the last productions, they have gone down a lot, and the Rvp, are in a mediocre figure of around 3.500 € per month (the best ones) ...and that money is earned any month between my wife and me (and without paying taxes, that is NET.... and we double it when we have extra payments, and without depending on the commission agents below, nor having to maintain an office, and leaving every day at 18:00The packaging of Citi, but the package itself is only for a few, not for everyone.Concluding: It is a good alternative for some people...but not for all...somehow when you are learning and you see that it works, you «use» your family, friends, acquaintances, and former clients, to be able to climb in the «race to the office» and I personally feel sorry that although some people want to follow you, they see how time and time again they are told no, and how very good I'm really sorry, especially because it makes my face fall off, but I'm not going to be able to do it. shame when I see that a Mr which is below me (pfi=piltrafilla as he is «affectionately» called in Citi) sells an insurance policy with all his effort to his brother-in-law, father, or brother...so that he does not get a Euro and yet I get it...look gentlemen, I still have dignity and I will not fill my pocket at the expense of others...who in turn, I am filling it with my efforts .... pyramid schemes, although there are some exceptions, but in general it is a «business". network» of pyramid how it works in USAThey also want to apply the American system to everything...the watch, the ring, the pin to the best transfers...and above all something that I don't like at all, and I think my opinion is shared by many colleagues/ex-colleagues of Citi, are the applause to sell more, to passing an exam etc etc...Another issue I can't stand is the ridiculous weekend conventions...excuse me MessrsCITIS, But it is not normal that they «invite to a convention» and charge the entrance fee, and on top of that you have to go by your own means... it is clear that it is for your own business and a supposed investment, but I consider that until you earn real money, you should invite the head of the office«.«RVP»I have been in several companies and some of them were for your own business, and certainly the entrance fee was paid by you, but the company paid for the travel, and at least a bottle of water was given to you at the entrance...because the convention I found the «Spartans» weekend a few months ago a real joke, just to motivate, to tell us what they tell us Friday after Friday in the classes... So much that they sold that there would be a before and after the convention (yes, there has been, before the growth and after the real estate crisis in USA, hehe) If we don't need motivation !!!!!...it is very nice to see the father with his son and everything. that...but two days out of my weekend for that ? and spending the money to go , parking and not even a ticket of a drink, for a ticket that cost me 50 € per person ? is that convention I wanted to take my children, and it cost me 200 € for tickets only + lunch costs + parking...I don't even want to think about itFrom Again, I really apologise because I didn't think I could do this, but I see people who work in the Citi somewhat aggressive and defending the company to the death, and me looking at it objectively, and assuming my failure, I just want to that eyes are opened, because Citisoluciones, is a option If you want to join, great, but you're going to have to fight twice as hard as if you join another financial solutions company, and as independent, European, commissioned financial advisors, with more renown....ya than you might think, no matter how hard you try, Citigroup in Spain nobody knows him, and you spend an hour or two more in the interviews, and at the same time you have to first sell who the company is, when, however, if you present yourself as a BBVA, for example, it is not necessary toI am also grateful already which has helped me to learn a little about the basics of how money, insurance and investment funds work, for which I am very grateful to Citi, I also encourage those who want to enter by taking the course and learn, for that is very valid and there are leaders who are good professionals ... as there are others. who only know how to strut about what they earn, don't earn, have, don't have, know or don't know... it depends on your luck in the office you enter.Greetings and good luck to the entrepreneurs of Citi...although every day I'm more and more glad that I unsubscribed, I feel very disappointed.Please could someone who is in the Citi and feel the same way, because I don't think I'm the only person who feels the same way.... I remember that I wore in citi one and a half yearsDVL : J.G.G.P.S. I would like to point out that the majority of offices/franchises of Citi which, moreover, have almost all opened inCanary Islands and much smaller cities than Madrid , have closed again because they have no successful income, no financial independence of any kind...and from going from the tie to the monkey , I guess it has been quite depressing, especially when they have reached the dreamed one. RVP...and when they have lost along the way, time, friends, money, and illusions».»
Anonymous friend, in our article of more than a year ago we said that it was a decent job like any other, but the company is unethical with its customers and also with its employees as you have described very well. It plays with the yearning to achieve financial independence which is much closer in the reading of Kiyosaki, The fact that it is a simple book, despite the fact that it is a simple book, than in that work activity. Especially for potential customers. It is a pity that the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad has lent (sold) himself to such a game. It dishonours him and harms third parties.
A pyramidal and pseudo-sectarian structure that hunts and captures the circle of influence of the largest number of followers. Unfortunately, far from the demanding formation of a commercial network and far from the search for the well-being of their clients that they so proclaim.
I just want, anonymous friend, to give you lots and lots of encouragement. Without our mistakes we couldn't improve, and I'm sure that without your disappointing passage through Citisoluciones, you would not have written such a sincere, sad and at the same time honestly grateful text. With your foresight, honesty and effort, have no doubt that time will put you in the place you deserve. That's how it usually does with everyone, for better and for worse.
I am sure your comment is appreciated by many.
P.S. Anonymous, please write us a e-mail contact details, We would be delighted to count you among our partners.
Esta pregunta viene al caso a raíz de lo que nos vamos encontrando en nuestras reuniones con nuevos clientes.
Es muy importante hacerse esta reflexión. ¿Su dinero trabaja para usted? ¿Para su banco? ¿Para su asesor fiscal? ¿Para su abogado? ¿Para su asesor inmobiliario?
El negocio tradicional bancario consiste en captar dinero a bajos tipos de interés y prestarlo posteriormente a otros particulares, al Estado o a otras empresas a tipos más altos, éstos pueden a veces llegar a superar el doble de lo que se retribuye al primero. Con esta diferencia los bancos cubren sus costes y además obtienen beneficios. Cuando los bancos captan dinero le llaman: operaciones de pasivo (con eso se financian), y cuando lo prestan: operaciones de activo (ahí es cuando lo invierten). Por ello, en ocasiones, cuando un inversor tiene un dinero que no necesita hasta una fecha futura, en lugar de prestárselo al Estado (comprando una obligación del Tesoro Público), a una empresa (comprando una acción o una obligación privada) o incluso uniéndose a otros inversores a través de una institución de inversión colectiva, IIC (comprando una participación en un fondo de inversión o en un plan de pensiones) lo que hace es contratar un depósito (operación de pasivo) que en realidad es ceder la propiedad de su dinero y el beneficio que podría obtener, si realizase el mismo los préstamos, al banco para que sea él el que haga negocio con su dinero.
A estas alturas de la conversación es cuando el cliente apela al factor Riesgo, entendido como la posibilidad de perder parte del capital o su totalidad. Lógicamente, quien va ha hacer trabajar el dinero será quien obtenga mayores frutos pero también quien asumirá el riesgo de que ese “hacer trabajar el dinero” no obtenga los rendimientos que, en principio, se esperaban. Las dos variables, rentabilidad y riesgo, suelen estar inversamente relacionadas, así las inversiones que ofrecen un mayor riesgo son las que presentan mayor rentabilidad y a la inversa.
Qué es lo que está pasando ahora con la “guerra de pasivo”. Las necesidades de liquidez (de dinero) de los bancos están haciendo que éstos se empleen comercialmente en captar el máximo dinero para sanear sus balances.
Cuando un banco ofrece una rentabilidad por encima de lo “normal” tenemos que tener en cuenta, como hemos comentado antes, que las dos variables rentabilidad y riesgo suelen estar inversamente relacionadas . Comprobamos en nuestras reuniones con clientes nuevos que la medición del riesgo de una entidad está muy sesgada en ellos por la imagen de la entidad, por el número de oficinas a pie de calle que visualiza el propio cliente y por la sensación que le da el banco. Esto no es así. ¿Ya nadie se acuerda del caso Banesto?
Si tenemos el euribor al 5% ¿Cómo puede ser que un banco nos ofrezca una rentabilidad superior? Si todo lo que pase de ese 5% es pérdidad para el banco. Si en la situación actual nos encontráramos con una persona que vende su casa perdiendo dinero, enseguida pensaríamos que está en una situación muy apurada. Pues lo mismo con los bancos.
No es lo mismo dejar nuestro dinero en depósito en un banco con una calificación crediticia a largo de AAA calidad crediticia máxima (en estos momentos ningún banco español la posee, sin embargo el Estado español sí) que en un banco con una calificación de CCC alto riesgo de impago. ¿Su banco le ha dicho cual es su calificación?
Otras personas para las que puede trabajar su dinero pueden ser su asesor fiscal o su abogado. Los bancos en su estrategia de captación de clientes establecen acuerdos con abogados y asesores fiscales para acceder a sus clientes a cambio de suculentas comisiones. ¿Se ha planteado alguna vez que su abogado o asesor fiscal puede tener condiciones más ventajosas con su banco que usted mismo que es el propietario del dinero? Otra pregunta delicada para que usted si quiere saber la verdad la haga a quien proceda. También muchos abogados y asesores fiscales han hecho dinero intermediando en operaciones inmobiliarias entre dos de sus clientes.
Otro profesional para el que puede trabajar su dinero es su asesor inmobiliario. Al analizar los activos que componen el patrimonio inmobiliario de una familia y desandar el camino desde la posesión del activo hasta su recomendación de compra podemos observar que ningún asesor inmobiliario a recomendado nunca una inversión que no tuviera en cartera. Los propios promotores han actuado de asesores inmobiliarios aconsejando activos sin tener en cuenta las características de éste como pueden ser la localización en una zona prime, las futuras afecciones con las normas urbanísticas, la complementariedad con el resto de los activos inmobiliarios de la familia, etc. Básicamente el activo recomendado era el que estaba en venta por el promotor inmobiliario y las características del activo venían condicionadas en cuanto a localización por el suelo que estuviera libre y que había podido comprar el promotor a buen precio. En cuanto a calidades de materiales y ejecución pues las que mejor pudo negociar el promotor para beneficio del promotor, no de la familia.
¿Como han resuelto ese barullo algunas familias? Creando un Family Office, para conseguir una gestión personalizada de su patrimonio adaptada a los objetivos de la familia.
Entre las múltiples ventajas que existen para tener un Family Office, los clientes destacan algunas: La libertad que les da para que los miembros de la familia puedan ejercer una carrera profesional distinta a los negocios de la familia. Conseguir que se gestione su dinero con eficiencia de costes. Una gestión estable y controlada de los activos. Que el patrimonio se desarrolle en un ambiente de confianza y lealtad.
La gran ventaja para las familias es que los Family Office proporcionan protección contra cualquier conflicto de intereses y aseguran que los intereses de la familia están en primer lugar. Si la familia crea su propia empresa de inversión la familia es su único cliente y no existe conflicto alguno pues la familia hará lo mejor para sí misma. Una vez llegados aquí existen dos posibilidades, que el Family Office lo dirija un miembro de la familia o que lo haga un profesional externo. En diversos estudios e investigaciones se aprecian las ventajas de que sea un profesional externo quien lo haga pues es más fácil delimitar las funciones y normas de gobierno del Family Office evitándose malas interpretaciones por parte de otros miembros de la familia ajenos a la dirección del mismo, muchas veces es inevitable trasladar diferencias personales dentro del seno de la familia a las decisiones de estrategia en el patrimonio familiar.
Según el profesor de Gestión de Wharton Raphael Amit solo merece la pena crear un Family Office si la familia posee al menos 100 millones de dólares en activos. Par familias con un patrimonio menor existen entidades idénticas conocidas como Multi Fámily Office, que es nuestro caso. La única diferencia radica en que se da servicio a más de una familia. Personalmente me resulta más satisfactoria esta opción pues el enriquecimiento humano y profesional es mayor y más amplio.
Hemos comprobado que el asesoramiento patrimonial de alto nivel es aplicable a los capitales medios y también pequeños y que en definitiva puede ser accesible a todo el mundo, como es nuestra labor de Fresh Family Office.
When one listens to pearls like the one in the video below, one realises that the truly important concepts and reflections are common to most of the people in the world. elected who have succeeded in one way or another in life. I am not referring to financial success but to personal success, even though they often go hand in hand, and do not always form a positive conjunction. There are a number of wise thoughts and reflections that are revealingly common in those who can feel fully proud at the end of their lives. Those who have clearly contributed to making the world better to a greater or lesser extent or whose passage through this life has not been sterile. In short, those whom for one reason or another we admire and would like to be able to emulate. But these reflections should also be common to mere mortals who will not go down in history, but who strive to reach the end of our lives with the satisfaction of feeling fully proud of our passage through this world.
Among these concepts and reflections we find wisdom, spirituality, ethics, intelligence, humility, courage, ideals, justice and a long etcetera of vital virtues, without which our existence will at best be anonymous, inconsequential, grey, vulgar and useless, if not harmful.
For our part, we humbly wanted many of these virtues to be taken into account by our clients when designing their future. Interestingly enough, just as Steve Jobs , one of the many reflections that we always like to do with our new clients before we prepare a new project. Global Wealth Plan is: What changes would you have to make in your life if you were diagnosed with a serious illness and your time was suddenly running out? The answers we come across are very diverse, but they always involve extremely fruitful reflections. We should not wait until the end of our life to put it in order. And hiring a family office is the right time to make these and many other changes that are not always directly related to optimising our investments.
As you will see in Steve Jobs' video, this reflection on the end of life has also helped him to analyse and relativise what is truly important in this world. Although it may come as a surprise, when we talk about managing and structuring more or less important assets, the consequences of contemplating or ignoring these reflections are very noticeable. For better and for worse. And we can assure you that when a Client's personal size allows him to value these concepts and reflections that we propose to him when designing his PGR, the results in terms of wealth progression and Happiness are spectacular. The pursuit of Happiness in parallel but also beyond the increase of our fortune, is something very enriching at all levels. As we have said before:
Paradoxically, when the focus is on the enjoyment of the journey, you tend to get on the podium, and the happiness achieved is far greater than the mere medal.
Losing sight of these vital concepts and reflections when dealing with money and wealth is one of the greatest dangers we can incur. Optimising the returns on our assets will produce money, but also a myriad of problems that will lead to unhappiness if we ignore what is really important in Life. On the other hand, if we have properly assessed these concepts, wealth progression in a wise living environment will be much more likely and easier to optimise. This is the basis of Cluster effect positive.
Here is the version of Mr. Jobs' speech that I found more than a year ago at Gurusblog thanks to Investorsconundrum, It is in its entirety and subtitled in Spanish. However, Steve Jobs' speech opened the 2005 academic year at the university:
If you are interested in this kind of reflections, which in my opinion are what distinguish the interesting people who pass through this world from the rest of the crowd, I also recommend you to read another pearl, this time from here: The Seven Powers, of Àlex Rovira. Finally, I leave you with the selection of the Top 20 must-reads for «the journey of life», according to this same author, a true Guru of Happiness. An interesting library if ever there was one:
1. Man's search for meaning. Victor Frankl. 2. The man who planted trees. Jean Giono. 3. Philosophical dictionary. André Comte-Sponville 4. Siddhartha. Hermann Hesse. 5. Leaves of Grass. Walt Whitman. 6. The wheel of life. Elisabeth Kübler-Ross. 7. Grace and courage. Ken Wilber. 8. The freedom to be. Annie Marquier 9. The art of loving. Erich Fromm. 10. The scripts we live by. Claude M. Steiner. 11. I am that. Sri Nisargadatta Maharah. 12. Who I am - the sacred quest. Jean Klein. 13. The Dance of Reality. Alejandro Jodorowsky. 14. The Little Prince. Antoine de Saint-Exupéry 15. The Act of Will. Roberto Assagioli. 16. The prayer of the frog. Anthony de Mello. 17. The wisdom of insecurity. Alan Watts. 18. Integral psychology. Ken Wilber. 19. Bhagavad Gita. 20. I Ching.
The supreme wisdom is to have dreams big enough not to lose sight of them while pursuing them. William Faulkner.
These are difficult times for investors. And this is a warning sign of the social impoverishment that lies ahead (we warned you already a year ago). When investing becomes particularly difficult and financial instruments are unusually volatile, the market price of the property prices in free fall Due to a massive increase in supply, and at a time when traditional economic cycles are being distorted to the point of disappearing, there are clear signs that we are on the brink of an economic crisis that will have a devastating impact on businesses and their jobs.
Although it is clear that this crisis has been affecting investors for months, its impact on ordinary people in the developed world has not yet been fully felt; nevertheless, it is already knocking on the doors of millions of people. Unfortunately, in the developing and underdeveloped world pouring down on the flooded area, because the need for alternative biofuels is causing a famine that should concern us infinitely more than UBS’s accounting problems, to give a stupid and shameful example.
Just like the pessimism about the property market It hinders the healthy growth of our wealth; the nomadic practice of parking money in bank deposits, scraping together tenths of a percentage point above the Euribor – here today, there tomorrow – does nothing to promote the sound, planned growth of our cash. However, compared to strategies that focus solely on rising share prices and the short term – which have made thousands upon thousands of investors rich in recent years – those entrenched in savings accounts will form the elite of those who knew how to exit the market in time and will be envied for weathering the winter without losses until the stock market spring returns (although the Japanese have been waiting for it for 18 years). But there is an opportunity cost, and in times of crisis it tends to be high.
In short, both the Pessimism in the property market such as the Financial Absenteeism represent a dangerous shift in the healthy growth of our wealth, which we must safeguard throughout our lives and in any economic climate. Some of you might say that avoiding losses that would severely erode our wealth is an achievement in these times. Of course, it is a lesser evil and, for many, a pipe dream, but we should only be content with avoiding a decline in our wealth if we are unable to maintain steady progress with reasonable guarantees of success, whether on our own or with help. Furthermore, success in achieving such steady progress will depend entirely on the PGR designed and based on the unique characteristics of the individual or family.
Here we must make it clear that financial success should not be defined solely in terms of maximising financial returns. Wealth and happiness are concepts that we must address together, as the former often poses a serious threat to the latter, as we can see from the following chart:
«A concert is not merely a performance of an album, but a theatrical event»
Freddie Mercury
Similarly, we can say that managing our wealth is not merely a matter of applying economic principles to our investments, but rather the perfect harmony between Happiness and Wealth throughout our lives and those of our descendants.
But returning to the steady growth of our assets and the show that must go on, we must not simply resign ourselves to a change of scenery. What we must do is adapt to it. Like the mouse in search of new cheese. Financial inaction can cost us irreplaceable opportunities, in terms of both quality and quantity, when it comes to our wealth. And, at best, we only have one lifetime in which to grow it.
We do not intend to encourage anyone to venture into investments whose risk is beyond their means or for which they are not suitably qualified. Far from it. We simply wish to share with you all the criteria and guidelines we work by as a Family Office. This is the path we believe to be the right one, and one that our clients follow with our guidance. And this is what we wish to explain and share on this blog for small and medium-sized investors. How each individual applies this will depend on whether or not they share our criteria and protocols, on their individual capabilities and training, and on whether or not they wish to receive our support.
We can hardly hope to reach a safe harbour if we do not know the right course. Only by understanding our objectives and limitations can we focus our efforts on trying to overcome winds y tides, such as the current credit and energy crises. Some will succeed. But without clarifying the route, the destination and our level of self-sufficiency, the chances are nil.
It’s a constant theme. Almost all the feedback we receive from people with average wealth (<12m €) y pequeños (entre o,5 3m es su desmoralización por la sobrecarga de inmuebles que sufren. apenas unas decenas o pocas centenas miles euros en efectivo el resto patrimonio ladrillo pagado incluso hipotecado parcialmente. esto hace se sientan atrapados sin salida. las causas les han llevado a esta situación son diversas no vamos juzgarlas absoluto. todos, acertadamente no, tuvieron mejor intención hacer crecer patrimonio. lo tanto deben perder tiempo energías culpabilizándose ello, pero sí aprender los errores cometidos grabarlos sus memorias indeleblemente.
en este perfil potenciales clientes, obstante hemos detectado conductas ciertamente muy desaconsejables. inmensa mayoría ellos desisten poder convertir dinero ante del mercado inmobiliario. reflexión más menos viene ser siguiente:
«My property is worth far more than what I would be offered for it at the moment. In other words, I won’t be able to sell it at that price until the crisis is over, and so I have no choice but to wait for the property market to recover to normal levels.».
No doubt many readers will recognise themselves in this pithy phrase. And we say ‘pithy’ because it could perfectly adorn the tomb of their wealth growth. Our longest-standing clients enjoy a very balanced mix of property and cash, tailored to their needs and PGR. However (or before this is implemented), we are going to try to correct certain conceptual and strategic errors via this blog, just as we do personally with new clients who come to our family office with this property burden:
Firstly, our properties are not worth more than what the market is willing to pay us today by them. This is the market price, and no other price we might have moored in our memory (just like the anchor effect (as defined by Fernan2 in the stock market). We may also be misled by the mental anchor we may hold onto regarding the expected capital gain at the time of purchase. This universal law of market price, determined by supply and demand, is particularly difficult to accept when it comes to our own property, especially when it accounts for virtually our entire wealth. But even if we are reluctant to accept it, the market continues to dictate its universal laws.
Secondly, whilst it is obvious that the market was overvalued, we must be aware that it may be many years before it becomes so again. The bursting of a bubble does not necessarily mean that another will immediately begin to form, and it is even less likely that it will do so in the same sector. The level we consider «normal» (sic) may be a long way from the value the market is likely to assign to our properties in the coming years or decades.
Thirdly, the growth of our wealth cannot be put on hold and allowed to suffer until the next property bubble has inflated enough for us to feel that our properties are being bought up by others «at its usual price«. We must not let a long and precious period of time and opportunities slip away, so that we can free up our assets and put them towards other investments.”.
The potential realised profit or loss that we will incur if we decide to sell our properties today at current market prices must be fully offset and more than made up for by the returns we will obtain from other investments made with the proceeds of those sales. And this capitalisation on opportunities, much like compound interest, will prove spectacular by the time our properties have regained a market value that we consider «normal». Therefore, the state of our assets at that future point in time when we deem it acceptable to sell our properties would be far worse than what we would have achieved by selling today at market prices and putting our assets to work during those same years. The show must go on (lyrics). Our assets must continue to perform well, without the long and severe property slump derailing our progress for years to come. As is always the case – and as we never tire of repeating – times of change, crisis, bursting bubbles, and so on… always come with the best investment opportunities. And we must be able to identify and capitalise on them, either on our own or with professional help. But in order to make the most of them, we must at the same time resolve to accept the market price for our properties so that we can begin the road to recovery. This path will be multifaceted and complex, and the worst mistake we can make in terms of building our wealth is to rule out selling, give up and fall into a pessimism about the property market which, let’s not kid ourselves, would be a very a long and fruitless penance.
Here’s one of the most moving posthumous videos from Freddie Mercury. Who better than him to remind us that the show must go on. That our wealth must continue to grow and that we must make the most of the opportunities that arise, despite the distress caused by past and present mistakes. If, to achieve this, we need to convert some or all of our property into cash at market prices, then we must do so. Let us think of the profits we can make with that money and not allow ourselves to be blinded by the capital losses we will incur. The opportunity cost The cost of resigning ourselves to a loss in the property market by pricing our properties well above market value is, without a doubt, far greater than any capital losses we might incur by adjusting our prices to match current demand.
To quote Henry Ford once again: Failure is a great opportunity to start again, but this time more wisely. Today it’ll be the bursting of the property bubble, tomorrow a stock market crash, the day after that hyperinflation with oil at 200$, or deflation itself… We will always have excuses for resignation and defeatism, for cowardly condemning ourselves to investment ostracism. But our wealth growth must continue despite the difficulties, and this is absolutely incompatible with the pessimism about the property market which prevails in our time.
The show must go on I’ll face it with a grin I’ll never give in Let the show go on
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La responsabilidad, a mi entender, es del todo compartida. Del mismo modo que la telebasura sólo tiene cabida si existe oferta y demanda. Es decir, «profesionales» de la comunicación que se rebajan a ello, y también demanda de televidentes con poco cerebro que consumen estos bodrios.
Por ello, en ocasiones, cuando un inversor tiene un dinero que no necesita hasta una fecha futura, en lugar de prestárselo al Estado (comprando una obligación del Tesoro Público), a una empresa (comprando una acción o una obligación privada) o incluso uniéndose a otros inversores a través de una institución de inversión colectiva, IIC (comprando una participación en un fondo de inversión o en un plan de pensiones) lo que hace es contratar un depósito (operación de pasivo) que en realidad es ceder la propiedad de su dinero y el beneficio que podría obtener, si realizase el mismo los préstamos, al banco para que sea él el que haga negocio con su dinero. 
