Después de leer el último análisis del Dr. H. W. Brock, presidente de Strategic Economic Decisions (SED’s Advisory Services), creo que será interesante hacer alguna reflexión respecto a la relación entre Crecimiento y Deuda. En el cuadro de al lado vemos gráficamente la explicación que Brock hace de la «tormenta perfercta» en la que estamos inmersos:
Todos hemos oído varias veces que el coste de esta crisis, de los excesos cometidos en el pasado, va a suponer una factura carísima que van a tener que pagar también nuestros hijos. Y probablemente sea cierto. Pero el abuso en el endeudamiento personal que se está trasladando a los Estados (vía insolvencias personales y empresariales hacia banca y de ahí a los Estados) puede evolucionar de dos maneras radicalmente distintas a largo plazo. Y la clave de esa evolución en positivo o hacia el desastre, radica en la capacidad de generar crecimiento.
Parece que el apalancamiento del Sistema al que hemos llegado vamos a intentar solucionarlo huyendo hacia delante, ya que la regresión, hambruna y caos que provocaría hacer borrón y cuenta nueva, es algo que la Humanidad no puede ni debe permitirse. Pero esa huída hacia delante puede derivar hacia dos escenarios muy distintos: El que conocemos como «República Bananera«, con hiperinflaciones y constantes huídas adelante sin aumentos de PIB sustanciales; o el del reequilibrio del endeudamiento respecto el crecimiento a medio y largo plazo. El citado ensayo de SED destaca la gran importantcia existente entre deuda y crecimiento, lo que califica como Debt to GDP Ratio y su evolución a medio y largo plazo. Es precisamente la reducción de ese ratio lo que marcará la diferencia entre la huída hacia delante en el endeudamiento hasta hacernos un daño irreversible; o la luz al final del tunel si se consigue crecer suficientemente para enjuagar dicho endeudamiento y déficit público:
En un punto de endeudamiento público que podría ser de no retorno, la recuperación a largo plazo es posible. Pero sólo si las políticas adoptadas nos conducen al aumento del denominador y a la moderación del numerador, en una ratio que debe ser nuestra obsesión en los próximos años. Para ello, claro está, debemos pensar en el largo plazo, es decir que las decisiones deben tomarse pensando más allá de una legislatura y de unas elecciones. Pero lamentablemente no soy muy optimista al respecto, ni a nivel político ni a nivel sindical.
Como medidas a tomar, Brock propone varias que a continuación os mencionaré, pero todas ellas basadas en las dos complementarias fuentes de crecimiento real económico:
«La tendencia de crecimiento es la suma del crecimiento de la fuerza productiva más el cecimiento de la productividad. «
Entre las medidas propuestas encontramos, por ejemplo: Los estímulos fiscales orientados para incrementar las infraestructuras que serán necesarias para crecer, estimulación de la innovación y el Venture Capital. Y en una perspectiva mucho más nacionalista el fomento y la educación de brillantes cerebros, tanto nacionales como procedentes de inmigrantes universitarios. También aboga por los incentivos para la inversión en el sector privado, y por una regulación limitada al control de las gratificaciones laborales desmesuradas y el recorte drástico del apalancamiento generalizado. Según Brock, estas regulaciones reconducirán de forma automática el resto de excesos cometidos, sobre todo en los últimos 3 años.
En cuanto al incremento de la fuerza productiva, propone la desregulación del mercado laboral. También una política fiscal encaminada a potenciar el impuesto sobre el valor añadido y a minimizar aquellos que afectan a las rentas laborales, porque distorsionan el crecimiento del mercado laboral y por tanto la capacidad de producción. Y por supuesto una disección del déficit público para que se encamine a endeudarse en aquello susceptible de transformarse en mayor crecimiento a medio y largo plazo.
Encrucijada sin vuelta a trás, complicadísima y con dos caminos al frente: Uno nos lleva a la hiperinflación estéril y otro a una normalización a largo plazo, pero necesitando mucho esfuerzo y acierto colectivo en el camino. En los siguientes gráficos veremos una proyección de los dos escenarios posibles:
Sin duda una macabra situación a la que hemos llegado por nuestra mala cabeza y por pretendernos ricos a base de dinero traído del futuro, un mal uso de La Teoría de la Especulación que nos ha llevado al colapso financiero. Y de ésta sólo podemos salir airosos con esfuerzo a largo plazo, pero dirigido a la única parte de la ecuación que podemos modificar: El crecimiento, ya que la deuda existe porque la creamos inconscientemente durante al menos la pasada década y no podemos desintegrarla. El endeudamiento sigue su macabro curso: Personas-bancos-Estados. Y es el propio Estado (o macro estados como USA o UE) que debe crecer a tóda máquina y durante muchos años para moderar la ratio Deuda-PIB. Si no lo conseguimos, nos haremos un daño del que jamás podremos recuperarnos.
Las cifras se disparan y la noticia ha saltado a las portadas. 66.000 familias han perdido ya sus casas en el Reino Unido desde que el credit crunch tuvo lugar en verano de 2007. Las previsiones para este 2009 son de 75.000 viviendas recuperadas por los creditores y eso cerrará un total de 125.000 en dos años y medio. Pero lo más preocupante no es la cifra acumulada hasta la fecha sino su progresión ascendente: Entre Enero y Marzo de este año, la cifra ha aumentado más de un 50% respecto al primer trimestre de 2008. Y actualmente son ya 150 familias las que se quedan sin su vivienda (debida) cada día, 7 días a la semana.
Esta escalofriante progresión ha llevado al Reino Unido a trabajar para preparar un protocolo que requiera a los prestamistas (entidades financieras) haber probado que se hayan examinado todas las alternativas para mantener a los deudores en sus casas antes de ejecutar los desahucios.
Parece que una segunda oleada de embargos se cierne sobre el Reino Unido, al igual que en los EE.UU. La pregunta que debemos hacernos es: ¿Qué va a pasar con el desmesurado mercado hipotecario español en un entorno récord (occidental) de desempleo? Es fácil intuír la respuesta (aunque no para todos): Veremos una gravísima afectación social, y la tan cacareada fortaleza de la banca española quedará en evidencia. ¿Cuándo? Pronto, muy pronto. Y la vomitona de inmuebles al mercado que está ya iniciando la banca, junto con la venta desesperada de aquellos quienes intentan evitar el embargo, será sólo el inicio de el verdadero desplome de precios que aún no hemos visto.
Mientras tanto, se toman medidas absurdas como ésta, de imposible cumplimiento en 2011. Ya que dentro de dos años la situación será tan delicada que las ventajas fiscales actuales, no sólo no se podrán eliminar sino que se deberán incrementar en la medida en que la quiebra del Estado español lo permita. La forma de evitar esa quiebra no puede ser más que la manutención de la Europa pobre por parte de la Europa rica, o bien se deberán adoptar las medidas tradicionales de aquellos Estados que sufren economías mucho menos competitivas que sus vecinos. Pero eso merecería un extenso artículo que no es conveniente escribir en plena cuenta atrás. El caso es que esa medida es tan absurda como decir que dentro de dos años la contratación de trabajadores será mucho más costosa, y esperar que con ello se reduzca el paro actual. Increíble.
Repetiremos hasta la saciedad lo que ya advertimos en «Invertir en recesión y Depresión»: Es mejor mal vender hoy que vender peor mañana, y que es tiempo de efectivo desde hace ya dos años. Saquemos la cabeza del hoyo y nuestros herederos lo agradecerán. Pero cuidado, el campo sigue minado y no va a ser nada fácil blindar el efectivo en los próximos años.
El ritmo al que los trabajadores españoles quedan en paro es vertiginoso. Pero si en lugar de comparar cifras mensuales lo hiciéramos como lo hacen en Slate, nos daríamos cuenta de lo que le está pasando a la economía y a la sociedad española.
En el gráfico interactivo de esta «pizarra» veréis cómo afecta mes a mes la pérdida de empleo a los EE.UU. Me da la sensación de estar viendo la explosión, en tiempo real, de múltiples cabezas nucleares en las ciudades más importantes de norteamérica en la última superproducción hollywoodiana al más puro estilo Armageddon. Son pérdidas de empleo que tardarán lustros en recuperarse (aún alcanzando rápidamente el ritmo de crecimiento pasado) y que sin embargo van explotando en meses dejando un rojo cada vez más espeso e intenso en el corazón económico de los EE.UU.:
El gráfico ha utilizado los datos de LAUS (Local Area Unemployment Statistics). Imaginemos ahora que alguien elabore (quizá ya lo hayan hecho) el mismo mapa pero de España y con las cifras de paro domésticas en el mismo periodo. Prefiero no verlo porque sería escalofriante.
A pesar de todo, algunos siguen ofuscados y ven en estas dramáticas cifras un repentino intento de la patronal por explotar a los trabajadores. Un sindicalismo negacionista del colapso financiero mundial y de la falsa riqueza virtual vivida, que nos lastrará temerariamente la productividad necesaria para intentar salir de la depresión económica. Mientras tanto sigue la cuenta atrás para muchos, pronto para la mayoría.
P.D. Para reírnos un poco de nosotr@s mism@s después de un post tan pesimista, a continuación veréis el último invento de Nintendo:
Cuidadín, porque por menos de nada le llaman a uno machista! 😉
It’s been more than two years since we wrote Citisoluciones: Networking at the service of Citibank. May Kiyosaki’s financial independence rest in peace. An article that has, over time, attracted an increasing number of comments from those affected and from anonymous individuals who have felt deceived and wronged by this company and his underhand tactics, some of which have even been published as blog posts. But this time we have received one that is particularly heartfelt, exquisite, honest and sincere. It contains some final reflections that are not to be missed, and which we did not want to let fade into obscurity as just a simple comment on an article from two years ago. I shall therefore leave you with the text of this PFI:
«Gentlemen,
It’s such a pleasure to read your posts. It’s delightful, to say the least.
Let’s take it one step at a time.
I am a PFI from what remains of Citisoluciones. We signed (and I say ‘we’ because of the partnership) our commercial contract some time ago (just over three years ago).
Everything was rosy, spectacular, gorgeous… well, I bought EVERY CD under the sun, in duplicate… no. I bought at least five copies of each CD. If there was ever a CD-buying fool, it was me. Same went for the books and all the other bits and bobs at the stall.
The first order was fine, but with the second one, all those little extras you’re so keen on at the start of the «business» were missing… only the cards arrived. That’s when my first question arose, and after two complaints, I realised there was nothing to be done. I couldn’t understand how «the world’s number one company» could be so shabby. Not to mention the RVP, who played dumb, just like the one in Madrid… I mean… it was small change… but it was my small change. If you don’t respect me over a few pennies, what would happen when we got to the «millions»?
We carried on with business as usual, turning up at EVERY single one of the shambolic events organised by our pathetic hierarchy. When we said we couldn’t go to the European Championships due to personal matters (money, let’s not kid ourselves – not a penny to be made from it), that’s when the sour faces and the nonsense started.
On several occasions I received calls from the RVP, telling me off for not having the right attitude and that I wasn’t making any money because I wasn’t pulling my weight… Let’s see, this business – if you can call it that – has a silly little rule which goes: «Follow your RVP and do what they tell you without contradicting them»… If I rebelled against my parents when I was young… wasn’t I going to do the same with a stranger?
Then there’s that whole »we’re off to the RVP lunch» business – just RVPs… odd. After every shambolic event, there’s a feast paid for by all of us who signed the SACI, which is only enjoyed by the Founding Ranchero with his Mercedes van, SpongeBob 745i, the Monopoly Chiripitiflautico and his boat, the Olvera Freak (raking it in, with a 1995 A8 that’s clocked up more kilometres than the roads themselves) and the rest of the acolytes. Incomprehensible but true—that’s just how it is.
Training courses… excellent methods based on constant, machine-gun-like repetition, with very little NLP – and, for heaven’s sake, the NONSENSE you have to put up with from certain people. As El Zorro says, let’s get talking. And this is going to get properly heated – it’s going to be a real treat.
Let’s talk about the RVP (I don’t know if it’s still called that). Zero communication. Just those annoying 45-minute Sunday sermons. I stopped going to church because of the priest’s nonsense… you can imagine. Zero education. I don’t think he even finished school. I’m not judging him for that, but I do recognise that to talk about certain things, you need to know what you’re on about properly, rather than just learning it off by heart, repeating the CDs as if you hadn’t listened to them enough already. I mean, he even went so far as to tell me to take the music CDs out of the car, saying they were just distracting me… I attended several of his «meetings» with the higher-ups. They were a right bore. He ended up with a glass in his hand at every single one. A proper bar-crawler. His wife is a prime example of how to envy others without even trying to hide it. What’s more, at every gathering she stood out for the way she let rip. The thing is, whenever she got on a first-name basis with someone from her husband’s ‘fantastic team’, she’d start slagging off whoever it was. A lady to be reckoned with, and one whose tongue is to be feared.
Let’s talk about our upline. A special person, beyond reproach, a genuinely nice bloke like few others, with a big heart, but weak-minded and easily influenced. His wife supported him for a while, until she went her own way career-wise and stopped supporting him. I hope they’re still together as a couple and that «this business» hasn’t put an end to their marriage. And it’s funny, just like my RVP, he’s someone I didn’t know at all before Citisoluciones. I really do hold him in very high regard. And he is, and always will be, welcome in our home; he’s shown he’s got what real people are made of. And that’s what counts.
Let’s talk about our experience.
We had a Regional Sales Manager who NEVER knew how to be a leader. What’s more, he didn’t even respect our work. He would introduce himself to our contacts as the VICE-PRESIDENT of the company, handing out his business card and stepping on our toes. Needless to say, all his attempts ended in failure, with the excuse that he had no experience as a field coach and that he’d already been through it all… as if we were complete idiots. We’re in our early 30s, with a few businesses under our belts, and employees… but as far as the ‘coach’ was concerned, we didn’t know how to lead.
We had a team that was doing well until the manager stepped in and completely ruined it for us. With all that talk of pruning, brain-eaters and fantasies from Merrie Melodies and Looney Tunes, we went from one month to the next without scoring a single goal.
Then came the washing machine… and the realisation that we had to go to Atlanta. By then, we didn’t have a penny to our name; I remember I handed in my notice (and I was the only one working at home), which is when things went pear-shaped. But then again, you can’t live on hopes alone, though they do keep you going a little. By then, my wife was starting to show signs of mental exhaustion regarding the business, even though I remained positive and enthusiastic.
We pulled out all the stops with Santiago and the money turned up for the trip to Atlanta – money for accommodation, food and so on. I remember leaving just four coins at home – a total, absurd and utter blunder worthy of the biggest idiot of them all. In the end, the RVP, in all his ignorance, with a bit of help from his team, got me to Atlanta. That just goes to show I wasn’t as clever as I thought I was.
That’s where we saw «the grandeur of business». Come on, Carmele, that’s where there’s a proper business. Here, we’re just selling life insurance and hypothetical investment plans. And that’s it, no matter how you dress it up.
We spent a week during which I slept very little, ate poorly, drank lots of water and spoke to loads of people. I signed up for everything to do with Hispanic events and a few in English as well – that language isn’t a barrier for me. It was an experience like few others, and one from which I gained a great deal, particularly in terms of perspective.
I came back raring to go. With a clear goal in mind and ready to take on the world. But in my beloved Spain, the harsh reality was that people don’t want something unless they need it. And Spain is different – as the posters with the bull say.
As you might expect, my expectations were sky-high. As the days went by, the initial euphoria gave way to the harsh reality I’d been talking about. And I had to make a decision which, looking back today, I do NOT regret. We put the business on hold, as it was unproductive. We started taking on extra jobs, especially me. When the cart’s already hurtling downhill, with no brakes and out of control, it’s bound to crash. And it didn’t crash thanks to the wonderful partner in our daily lives, who always looks out for the family’s safety and sees what I can’t. Whenever we’ve done things her way, we’ve got it right. Out of a hundred times, I’ve only got it right once. Statistically speaking, and based on experience, if she thinks it’s a good idea, we go for it, as far as we can.
As things stand, we still haven’t managed to get our economy back on its feet… that thing they used to call «the status quo»… for us, it’s enough just to live in peace. And as for the rest, we want that too, but it has to be realistic.
Whilst we were «forced to walk away» from this magnificent opportunity, «the higher-ups» got in touch with us on a couple of occasions. The upline was a true gentleman. As for the RVP… I’m lost for words.
We’ve refreshed our «knowledge». An «exam» designed to keep you sitting on your arse in a chair for two and a half hours, whilst they can’t even get the projector to work, we have to wait for more people to turn up, and in the end, one of the RVPs ends up shouting out the answers so as not to lose «members» (people who pay their way).
What can I say to you, a newcomer, who’s been infected by this spirit of helping others – something so beautiful and humanitarian, yet which hides other intentions behind it? If you want to help, the Red Cross is always looking for volunteers. And if that’s not quite enough for you, any NGO would be happy to welcome you into its ranks.
Take a cold, hard look at whether you’re pursuing your own dreams or, on the contrary, being made to live someone else’s dream as if it were your own. I might sound bitter, but I’m not. I think the business opportunity is brilliant, as long as it really is an opportunity. And if it were like the one I saw in the United States, it would be amazing. In fact, I’d give up what I’m doing now to do what they do over there. But no, this is Spain; here, things don’t arrive when they’re needed, but only when it suits someone.
I always wonder why there’s only one life insurance policy and four bits of investment nonsense, when any other company puts ALL the products it has right in front of you, because let’s cut the nonsense and the brainwashing – a business is there to make money. And if it doesn’t make money, it’s no good. A people-based business… let’s see, it’s not going to be a business based on animals, plants or machines. People are the ones with the money… even though it seems obvious, it took me quite a while to realise that. And that’s despite the fact that this wasn’t my first multi-level marketing scheme, although it was certainly my last.
We spent nearly 20,000 euros whilst we were in business. Between the money we had and what we spent on our credit cards, we ended up bankrupt. I haven’t seen any of those «friends» – the ones with their effusive hugs, pats on the back and interesting stories – knock on my door to ask if we’ve got anything to eat. When that tough moment (the one about food) arrived, it was just us as a family, each of our parents, and nothing else. No recriminations, no nagging, no asking why – just offering us the little that retired parents can. And there you are, after infecting everyone with your dreams and fantasies of becoming a millionaire, sad, poor, wishing you could vanish off the face of the earth, wanting to leave your city to start from scratch somewhere else, with a very unpleasant feeling in your stomach and cursing the day you discovered the «business» that led you to ruin, when the «business» isn’t to blame. The problem is you – you failed to realise that you were lining someone else’s pockets, whilst you were left with the crumbs, if they even let you have those.
That’s how I felt. Thank God my wife – whom I’ll never tire of admiring and trying to understand – is there to tell me just how wonderful our life together is, and that she married a winner. Add to that the support of your whole family – the real one, the one that’s there for who you are and not for what you have – and you’ll realise there’s absolutely no need to jump through anyone’s hoops.
Los sindicatos siguen sin enterarse de lo que está pasando. Y lo peor es que manipulan la opinión pública de los trabajadores en la peor y más perjudicial de las direcciones. Ni saben ni quieren saber que esta vez, y sin que sirva de precedente, su enemigo no es la patronal. Ni la derecha, ni la banca, ni nadie a quien insultar o quemar su imagen en un disturbio callejero organizado. Esta vez el enemigo de la sociedad entera, y no sólo de la clase obrera, es la Crisis global en la que nos hemos metido y de la que everyone somos responsables, también los trabajadores.
El que esté libre de culpa, de la burbuja crediticia que nos ha llevado a esto, que tire la primera piedra (pero no contra un escaparate de McDonalds en cualquier capital española). Toda la clase media-alta, media y también la media-baja (es decir casi todos) se ha venido gastando el futuro en la última década. Como dijimos el verano pasado:
A bienestar ineficiente (porque se alimentaba de riqueza debida) e irreal que conseguimos en la última década para la mayoría de la población de Occidente. Hicimos un upgrade masivo de la clase baja trabajadora convirtiéndola en clase media, y de clase media convertida a clase media-alta. Y para ello utilizamos dinero traído del futuro, a base de una burbuja crediticia que nos ha estallado en la cara.
Pero los sindicatos (me refiero al menos a los españoles, que son los que vemos a diario en los medios de comunicación) no se han enterado. Todavía creen que el bienestar del que venimos era real. Se lo han creído tan ingenuamente como se lo creyó la mayoría, pero lo que es realmente grave es que sigan sin reaccionar ante la cruda realidad. «Los derechos básicos de los trabajadores», «las lineas rojas que no van a permitir que la patronal traspase», etc. son frases que les dejan en evidencia. Lamentablemente no estamos ni estaremos en condiciones de defender esos derechos, ni de marcar límites al malestar que se cierne sobre todos nosotros. Pensar que las empresas para las que trabajan van a utilizar la crisis como excusa para aumentar sus beneficios de forma explotadora y codiciosa, no sólo es ridículo, sino que también denota una bajeza de miras e incompetencia de los dirigentes sindicales muy grave y preocupante. Cualquiera con dos dedos de frente ve claramente que esta Madre de todas las Crisis se está llevando por delante gran parte del tejido empresarial del primer mundo y especialmente de países como España. Está siendo fulminante. Y las cifras macroeconómicas que vamos conociendo, a posteriori de los hechos que acontecen, son tan estremecedoras que los sindicatos deberían luchar por conseguir EREs inferiores al 100% y no EREs del 0%.
En los tiempos difíciles, es comprensible que la clase obrera con una menor capacidad de analisis y formación, pueda arremeter y centrar su ira en quien paga su salario. Siempre ha sido así y no todos estamos obligados a ser capaces de comprender lo que está pasando a nuestro alrededor. Pero los dirigentes sindicales sí que deben analizar correctamente la situación. Es su obligación y su responsabilidad hacerlo y explicarlo de forma comprensible a sus afiliados y a todo su radio de influencia, que es mucho.
Los sindicatos son necesarios en una economía expansiva porque deben exigir mejoras en detrimento de un aumento desmesurado de los beneficios empresariales. Y como bien dijo Pau A. Monserrat, también hacen una buena tarea en seguridad laboral y asesoramiento jurídico. Pero en una situación depresiva como la actual y en plena destrucción de riqueza global, su labor se debe centrar en la concienciación de la clase trabajadora, para aunar esfuerzos con un tejido empresarial en grave peligro de extinción. Hacer lo contrario es sumamente irresponsable y deberíamos avergonzarnos del papel que están jugando nuestros sindicatos en estos momentos difíciles.
El enemigo fuimos y somos todos, y el pataleo y los brindis al sol como por ejemplo una huelga general (que veremos muy pronto) o pulsos absurdos con la patronal y el Gobierno sólo van a empeorar la situación. Mejor nos iría si apretamos los dientes y nos dejamos de buscar demonios y enemigos entre los empresarios y los políticos. La Depresión ha venido para quedarse, y lo hará hasta que se purgen suficientemente los excesos cometidos por todos, y la productividad supere con tiempo y mucho esfuerzo a la destrucción de riqueza. El lastre que están suponiendo los sindicatos en estos tiempos de recesión, es y será históricamente imperdonable. El mundo ha cambiado, y ellos no.
There are still many people who believe that this crisis is nearing its end. Fewer and fewer, it is true, but there are still many who honestly consider the economic forecasts to be accurate. And I am not referring to those of Zapatero, Brown or Berlusconi (whom almost no one believes anymore), with their unspeakable yet undeniable political interests, but to those of the International Monetary Fund IMF, who is currently acting as Jiminy Cricket of the global political class. But the reality—and above all the prospects for the future—are, unfortunately, far bleaker. So much so that they cannot be made public by official bodies such as the IMF or the various central banks. And that is a good thing, since the responsibility borne by certain organisations is far greater than that of governments, and a globalised sense of doom would do little or nothing to aid recovery (or public order).
Organisations such as those mentioned above make up the systemic tissue. Far more than just a head of state, whose government team usually aims merely to see out a term of office with enough influence to stand for re-election. That is why these international organisations lie less than politicians, yet their high responsibility The international situation also prevents them from publicly painting a picture of the harsh reality of the situation.
In today’s globalised world, with its extremely serious financial problems, national governments are not up to the task and are merely playing a supporting role. And the best part is that they are fully aware of this, giving in de facto the overall management of the greatest crisis in the modern economy. In fact, politicians only appear in photos at high-profile summits and little else. The real governance of this global economic collapse is being carried out by: on the one hand, what we might call the major central banks (FED-ECB), the IMF (and perhaps some other economic governing body), second-tier central banks (BOJ, Official GazetteBNS); and on the other hand, the Obama team and the G20. The vast majority of finance ministers, with a few honourable and very rare exceptions, merely watch and learn (some do not even do that).
It is worth noting that politics plays a significant role in these governing bodies, which steer the planet de facto In such a critical global situation, it is minimal. The G20 is more of a framework for apparent decision-making through which the actions of the world’s financial elite are channelled. A mere (though, from the emerging economies’ perspective, extremely interesting) forum with a certain degree of influence. And I don’t think that’s entirely a bad thing, given the state of the political class, despite Sarkozy’s efforts to assume the role of statesman for the EU. Obviously Obama is the exception that proves the rule and the essential (though perhaps insufficient) dose of hope, as he and his political team seem to be the only ones capable of governing in a manner befitting the financial institutions. Perhaps this is because his team is largely made up of people from senior positions in the financial sector, and he has wisely set aside politics as we—those of us who do not lead the world—understand it. That is how it should be, at least during the parliamentary term in which the world fell apart.
If we were to try to govern with a collapsed financial system, we would do ourselves a great deal of harm. And although, hierarchically speaking, governments are supposed to lead the world, in times of crisis we have managed to relegate politicians to a secondary role. Perhaps this is to no one’s credit and they have simply been shown up. Some of you will say that the people have not elected those who de facto they’re steering the ship through a crisis, and that’s true. But the thing is The democracy we have managed to devise is not only unable to to exist without it Not only is it unable to support the system, but it is also incapable of sustaining it. Until we learn to create a form of democracy different from the one we know, it requires a system to underpin it and keep it safe. A system that has collapsed and must be rebuilt by great figures and specialists who will make history behind the scenes and whom, with a few exceptions, we would never find amongst the modern political class.
It has been criticised ad nauseam the stress test for Geithner. The reasoning was that a «litmus test» could only harm the US banking sector and its share prices: if the results showed a general pass, it would highlight the test’s futility and lack of rigour, and the markets would therefore punish this charade. If, on the other hand, the test singled out banks unable to withstand a worsening of the economic situation (which was both inevitable and imminent), these banks would plummet on the stock market, triggering extremely dangerous panic, amid fears of further Lehman Brothers-style collapses that could hardly be tolerated. But this prediction overlooked the fact that transparency also has a price – and a significant one at that.
The projected figures for the worsening of the situation, used in the stress test, are set out in the table below:
We note that, in the least negative scenario, the US economy is projected to contract by -2% in 2009 and to grow by 2.1% in 2010. In the most negative scenario, the economy is projected to contract by -3.3% and recover by 0.5%, respectively. Another variable is unemployment, which affects the general ability to service debts: between 8.4 and 8.9% in 2009 and 8.8 and 10.3% in 2010. We also see the projected fall in property prices (houses): between -14% and -22% for 2009, and between -4% and -7% for 2010.
Some also question the forecasts themselves, but in general the criticism centred on the futility and/or danger of publishing the results. Well, as things stand today (tomorrow is another matter), the effects of publishing the stress test are clear: greater transparency and confidence, which is translating into increased investor support for the major US banks. And that boost in confidence is a godsend for the world’s largest banking system.
As we mentioned last April in The Banking Crisis II and speculation in the US banking sector, the Obama’s bailout plan dispels the possibility of the major banks going bankrupt. The fact is that this possibility of Chapter 11 Until very recently, it was trading at the share prices of the most high-profile US companies. The credibility of that rescue plan, as well as the publication of the results of the litmus test credible and apparently rigorous (despite widespread criticism), have shed light on the future of the major North American banks.
Anything could happen in the markets over the coming months, but the systemic risk posed by the big banks and the spectre of Lehman Brothers are no longer a factor. Now it is «merely» a matter of fine-tuning the valuation of the goodwill and in any capital increases that may take place. However, the irrational and unfundamental value of the US banking system is proving to be the basis for the current share price, as we said last November. All it took was to dispel the spectre of bankruptcy for the shares to trade well above their intrinsic value. We do not see this phenomenon even in sectors as significant as the automotive industry.
The fact is, we are talking about something as vital as money – and the system that manages and creates it. These are such weighty matters that the mere guarantee of the survival of the major banks means that share prices, which previously reflected the risk of these institutions going bankrupt, have now been surpassed. The fundamental value, just like the size… no always It matters.
Vivimos tiempos de empobrecimiento generalizado. El colapso del Sistema que comenzó en verano del 2007 ya está llevándose por delante la mayoría de patrimonios de la clase media-alta y alta. Y lo peor es que lo hace inútilmente, ya que no se trata de una redistribución sino de una destrucción de la riqueza, de la que ni siquiera son conscientes muchos de sus propietarios.
Como ya hemos repetido infinidad de veces, los patrimonios suelen constar de 3 tipos de activos: Financiero, inmobiliario y empresarial. Pues bien, el Tsunami del empobrecimiento que empieza a desencajar los rostros de muchos tenedores de fortunas de todos los tamaños, está teniendo también su macabro timing:
The first pata del patrimonio que ha sufrido pérdidas enormes es la financiera, ya que durante el final del 2007 y todo el 2008 las inversiones en bolsa, (con sus estructurados de todo tipo) y la mal llamada RF como las acciones preferentes y deuda perpetua, han sufrido sangrías descomunales. En este apartado cabe decir que los inversores fueron acuciados inmoralmente por vendedores e intermediarios de todo tipo. La codicia, la falta de conocimientos y de sentido común hicieron el resto.
En cuanto a los inmuebles, es cierto que se han visto ya muy devaluados respecto a los precios de hace un par de años en los que nos anclamos inconscientemente. Pero según nuestro criterio, la caída fuerte en los precios aún no la hemos sufrido. La oferta latente proveniente de los grandes paquetes de inmuebles que la banca arrojará al mercado no ha hecho más que comenzar. También los multipropietarios, cuyos ingresos vía alquileres y otros se están viendo muy disminuídos, van a vomitar inmuebles a un mercado cuya demanda es y será durante muchos años puramente residual. Y cuando ese fenómeno se produzca y vaya aumentando paulatinamente, asistiremos a la verdadera caída de precios del mercado inmobiliario.
Finalmente, también los beneficios empresariales han desaparecido en muchas empresas familiares y patrimonios corporativos en general. Pero el deterioro en el valor de una empresa no sólo viene dado por la caída de beneficios, sino también por las minusvalías inmobiliarias de sus instalaciones e inmovilizados en general. Además el escenario actual a menudo está obligando a las empresas a realizar adaptaciones que van más allá de la reducción de plantilla y gastos, nos referimos a cambios sustanciales en el modelo de negocio. Y muchas empresas no serán capaces de lograrlo, generando así pérdidas de valor patrimonial empresarial de casi el 100%.
El timing de la sangría patrimonial comenzó mayoritariamente por las pérdidas financieras, dejándo las caídas inmobiliarias y las minusvalías en el patrimonio empresarial para la llegada del tsunami a la costa. O sea que el colapso financiero afectó antes a las inversiones monetarias, cuando se hablaba de que algo grave sucedía con el crédito pero todavía la sociedad sólo lo sufría en los extractos bancarios de quienes poseían una cuenta de valores. En cambio está siendo el deterioro social grave el que va a coincidir en el tiempo con la pérdida masiva de valor inmobiliario y corporativo.
Obviamente si sumamos las pérdidas que vamos a ver (estamos viendo ya) en los tres tipos de patrimonio que ya hemos definido, la sangría patrimonial va a ser abrumadora y muy cruel con los esfuerzos de vidas enteras. No obstante, pocos van a ser conscientes de la gravedad de su pérdida patrimonial porque la mayoría sólo considerarán como tal la pérdida la financiera. Y esa Mentalidad Avestruz en la gestión de sus patrimonios va a impedirles tomar las medidas drásticas necesarias para evitar que el esfuerzo de toda una vida o incluso de generaciones se destruya en esta gran crisis del s.XXI. La Sangría Patrimonial no ha hecho más que empezar, y el único antídoto es el que venimos recomendando desde hace un par de años: Es tiempo de efectivo para evitar la pérdida de Valor, y además es el paso previo necesario para poder aprovechar las oportunidades que nos brindará (que nos está generando ya) la madre de todas las crisis.
Here’s a puzzle we set you a year ago, and which, unfortunately, has played out in real life time and again throughout 2008 and 2009. I hope you enjoy it and that you’ll point out where our Spanish protagonists’ calculations go wrong.
«Once upon a time, there were three young American couples who worked and lived in three small, cheap rented flats in the same neighbourhood on the outskirts of Tampa (Florida). Two of the women were Cuban and the other was Mexican. The husbands of the first two were African American, whilst the Mexican woman was married to a divorced Puerto Rican man.
As the three couples got on very well and knew that by pooling their finances they could start thinking about buying a home of their own, they decided to take out a mortgage on a house big enough for all three families. This is the house:
Spacious pool home, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and a 2-car garage. Trayed ceilings in the living and dining rooms. Huge walk-in wardrobe in the master bedroom. Eat-in kitchen with all appliances, including a washing machine and dryer, plus a water softener. Walking distance to the neighbourhood playground. Tiles in all high-traffic and wet areas. Formal living and dining rooms, both with coffered ceilings. Galley kitchen features a breakfast nook overlooking the pool and a trussed-roof lanai. The kitchen is tiled, has a gas hob, a walk-in pantry, 42-inch maple cabinetry and a wrap-around breakfast bar. All appliances included. Spacious family room with a wall for your wide-screen TV. The master bedroom has a coffered ceiling and a huge walk-in wardrobe. The master bathroom has two washbasins, cultured marble worktops, a large garden bath, and a separate shower with a bench seat. The secondary bedrooms are spacious, with fans and lighting in all. Indoor laundry room with a utility sink. The hot water heater has a booster pump for quick response. The pool features an automatic sweep system and a safety fence. There is an outdoor shower by the pool.
Price: 300,000′-$ That’s 100,000 per family. But as the US property market was in a real slump (I’d say the slump has now reached the point of attempted suicide), our friends negotiated a substantial discount of 50,000 $, bringing the final price of the house down to 250,000′-$. For those unaccustomed to thinking in square feet or US dollars, let’s break it down: 211 m² for approximately 163,000′- €163,000. That is to say, €773 per square metre.
Of course there were neighbourhoods and houses that are still much cheaper, but our three families were optimistic about their future and decided to ask Mr Cheater, mortgage broker of a a reputable credit company call Quicken Loans, a mortgage for the full value of the house that would make their dreams come true of enjoying Tampa’s pleasant climate all year round, complete with a private swimming pool. The monthly repayment amounted to 1,726,971 TP4T, that is, three instalments of 575,661 TP4T per month; and with that 30-year-and-one-day mortgage, they were able to pay the previous owner in cash, who quickly went off to get drunk at the dive bar nearest.
Thanks to the discount they secured, and as each couple had applied for a mortgage charitable of 100,000′-$, our friends had 50,000′-$ left over from their initial budget, which they decided to allocate and divide up as follows: 20,000 was put into a joint fund and used to cover the transaction costs, fees and taxes, as well as the refurbishment of the house and the furniture. On the other hand, the remaining 30,000 they They divided it equally, giving 10,000 to each couple. With this money, they decided replace the three old cars which the three couples had been dragging along for years.
And so, with their three new second-hand cars in their brand-new second-hand garage and their brand-new second-hand house, furnished and fitted out with the 20,000′- $ from the mortgage, which they put into a joint fund, they began a new and long-awaited life full of hope.
They were immensely happy in their new home and with their new cars. They worked hard and deserved that standard of living, but now they had to cope with more expenses and obligations than they had ever had before. Mr Cheater had already warned them that he would be ruthless about late mortgage payments. If they wanted to continue benefiting from the ridiculously low interest rate of 5 5/8, they couldn’t miss a single month’s payment, otherwise… Our three couples were very grateful to him for his interest and kindness in finalising the details of the sentence… I mean, the mortgage. Without him, they would never have been able to realise their dream of a house or a car. What a great bloke Mr Cheater is!
A few days later, sitting on the deck by their brand-new swimming pool, they began to do the sums and argue amongst themselves. Something didn’t add up in their figures. The Mexican woman and her Puerto Rican husband began to mistrust the Cuban sisters, who had been in charge of negotiating with Mr Cheater. They argued that the three families had each taken on debt of 100,000, but had spent 10,000 on a new second-hand car. Therefore, once the money they had shared out to replace their old cars had been deducted, their net contribution to the house was only 90,000. That is, 90,000 divided by 3 couples, equal to 270,000-$, which, added to the 20,000′-$ for taxes, expenses, furniture and fitting out the house, gave them a total of 290,000′-$. And yet (or perhaps because of it) the ever-so-kind Mr Cheater had mortgaged their lives to the tune of 300,000′-$!!!
The Cuban sisters, who took care of the mortgage paperwork with Quicken Loans They went over the accounts again and again, swearing up and down that neither they nor their husbands had pocketed the $10,000 that was missing from their accounts. The tension between the Puerto Rican and the African Americans rose to a dangerous level. They also suspected Mr Cheater, whom they went to visit in an attempt to resolve the conflict, but all they achieved was mistrust and threats of seizure from Bill Emerson (Chief Executive Officer), the head of Mr Cheater.
They went through the bills for the three cars, the furniture, the air conditioning, the taxes, and the fees and charges from Quick Loans. Everything seemed to be in order, but with each passing day, the mistrust between them grew to such an extent that they stopped speaking to one another. Life in what had been their dream home turned into a nightmare. Even the way the three cars were parked in the huge garage became a source of fierce dispute, and every morning they would wake up to find some suspiciously new scratch or dent.
Perhaps due to their constant state of tension, one of the Cuban sisters and her brother-in-law lost their jobs. They sold one of their cars at a loss to ease their financial difficulties, as it was becoming increasingly difficult for them to meet their monthly payments of 575,661 TP4T. But after a few months, they were unable to make their payments to Mr Cheater on time and received their first threat of repossession. They agreed to put the house up for sale, though not without a violent row between the Puerto Rican and the unemployed African American. But the attempt to sell it and pay off their mortgage was in vain; the same estate agency who sold them the house only passed on a single offer from a investor for 135,000′-$ in cash.
Mr Cheater lost his job and now works as a head waiter at the The Hard Rock Hotel Casino in Seminole. For their part, our main characters had to return to the outskirts of Tampa to rent flats that were even cheaper than the ones they had left behind just a year ago. This time they only needed two flats, as one of the Cuban sisters had got divorced and moved in with her other sister and her African-American husband, who was still unemployed. In fact, she had been having a secret affair with her brother-in-law for years, but neither her sister nor her former Mexican friend ever suspected a thing.
One afternoon, a few years later, whilst our Puerto Rican friend was watching his Mexican wife and their three-year-old daughter playing with a children’s jigsaw puzzle, he exclaimed, laughing heartily: ‘I know what happened to the 10,000′-$ we were short when we bought the house, my friend!’
I suppose most of you know this too. Those who aren’t sure will have to wait and read your comments.»
There are two things that are infinite: human stupidity and the universe. But I’m not so sure about the latter.
It has not even been six months since we wrote the article «The Broken Bank», which later became a meme which was followed by posts from the leading economic bloggers. At that time, I decided that one day I would write the follow-up that I am publishing today, but I never imagined I would do so after just half a year.
As you may have re-read (I recommend you do this to refresh your memory of what I’m about to discuss), six months ago we were looking for arguments to justify the value of a bankrupt banking system. Of course, these are arguments with no real, accounting or fundamental value; some might even say they have no rational value whatsoever. But six months on, with a modest outlook that we will be expanding upon throughout 2009 and, above all, 2010, the political decision to keep the global banking system afloat with public money is now more than just a political decision. Huge cash injections have already been devised and approved for those whose collapse could prove traumatic. In fact, the ‘state-to-bank’ blood transfusion is already flowing through enormous veins the size of gas pipelines, which have been installed to provide service for longer than we could have imagined or would be desirable.
As we said at the time, this political decision stems from our society’s need for a stable banking system that acts as our banking sector in a Global Monopoly in which we wanted to transform the world. Consequently, the survival of the banks is politically guaranteed by their respective governments. All states have the capacity to bail out some of their banks, but bear in mind that only some states have the capacity to rescue their financial system as a whole. Of course, this requires a central bank of their own and a flexible currency, and the clearest example of this is the US.
In this context, we might conclude that the major banks that make up the core of the financial systems of those powerful and capable states are, in all likelihood, set to survive. In other words, the chances of a second Lehman Brothers occurring are negligible in the short and medium term.
Let’s now recall what we said in «The Broken Bank«: There were too many (perhaps irrational) reasons why the valuations of the major banks in a country like the US would not fall to zero. The risk of collapse has now passed, and the foundations for ridding their balance sheets of the toxic assets that still plague them were laid in a Obama’s public-private rescue plan at the expense of the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), that is, from state funds. It is true that bids for the toxic assets arising from the bailout plan will be based on private rather than public criteria, but that does not guarantee that the process will be rigorous. Nothing will prevent the banks themselves from, under the guise of independent organisations, act as «private investors» and value those assets at prices high enough to inject sums into their balance sheets that will breathe new life into them. With varying degrees of abuse or discretion, but with a vampiric ability to guarantee the stability of the system. Let’s look at it from the other side: what is not going to happen is that the private entities bidding for the assets will do so at such unreasonably low levels as to cause the failure of certain banks that are meant to guarantee the stability of the system and are the very essence of it. And those private organisations will be as opaque and have such hidden agendas as is necessary to ensure that their proposals are, at the very least, enough to shore up the balance sheets of the major US banks. For every million $, only 3% will actually be at risk from private investment, with the remainder comprising up to 20% in public funds and 80% belonging to the FDIC on a «non-recourse» basis. In other words, the 3% of private capital will bear no liability for the remainder of the money invested should the purchased assets prove to be insolvent.
What we mean by all this is that If we’re thinking of a high-risk speculative investment, perhaps now is the time to buy shares in major US banks which are set to benefit from a pseudo-private bailout scheme, but which will use vast amounts of public funds – effectively as grants – that definitively ward off the risk of bankruptcy. We may well continue to see capital increases that indefinitely weigh down the share price of certain financial sector stocks. But it is also reasonable to assume that the risk to our investment is no longer that the share price will fall to zero, but rather that it will remain undervalued for years. On the other hand, the potential for an upturn, should the toxic assets be sold to a willing buyer – whether genuine or artificially created – is there, more so than ever before in the short history of this financial crisis. And let us remember that the goodwill from the major US banks («a set of intangible or non-material elements of the company that represent value to it»), remains unique amongst those we can find in the listed market. And that very special rescue plan is a intangible asset a real showstopper – and not the only one.
Just six months ago, the ground gave way beneath the global banking system. And today, they are once again standing on ground which, whilst far from solid, might lead us to consider that sector for our more speculative investments. But be careful: this applies only in the US and/or to those institutions whose states meet the requirements mentioned above.
As for RF emissions from those same organisations, if there are any, doubts remain. But that is a topic for another article.
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Después de leer el último análisis del Dr. H. W. Brock, presidente de Strategic Economic Decisions (SED’s Advisory Services), creo que será interesante hacer alguna reflexión respecto a la relación entre Crecimiento y Deuda. En el cuadro de al lado vemos gráficamente la explicación que Brock hace de la «tormenta perfercta» en la que estamos inmersos:
En un punto de endeudamiento público que podría ser de no retorno, la recuperación a largo plazo es posible. Pero sólo si las políticas adoptadas nos conducen al aumento del denominador y a la moderación del numerador, en una ratio que debe ser nuestra obsesión en los próximos años. Para ello, claro está, debemos pensar en el largo plazo, es decir que las decisiones deben tomarse pensando más allá de una legislatura y de unas elecciones. Pero lamentablemente no soy muy optimista al respecto, ni a nivel político ni a nivel sindical.
En cuanto al incremento de la fuerza productiva, propone la desregulación del mercado laboral. También una política fiscal encaminada a potenciar el impuesto sobre el valor añadido y a minimizar aquellos que afectan a las rentas laborales, porque distorsionan el crecimiento del mercado laboral y por tanto la capacidad de producción. Y por supuesto una disección del déficit público para que se encamine a endeudarse en aquello susceptible de transformarse en mayor crecimiento a medio y largo plazo.
Sin duda una macabra situación a la que hemos llegado por nuestra mala cabeza y por pretendernos ricos a base de dinero traído del futuro, un mal uso de La Teoría de la Especulación que nos ha llevado al colapso financiero. Y de ésta sólo podemos salir airosos con esfuerzo a largo plazo, pero dirigido a la única parte de la ecuación que podemos modificar: El crecimiento, ya que la deuda existe porque la creamos inconscientemente durante al menos la pasada década y no podemos desintegrarla. El endeudamiento sigue su macabro curso: Personas-bancos-Estados. Y es el propio Estado (o macro estados como USA o UE) que debe crecer a tóda máquina y durante muchos años para moderar la ratio Deuda-PIB. Si no lo conseguimos, nos haremos un daño del que jamás podremos recuperarnos.
