The analyst John Mauldin, The EU is facing profound changes after the result of the British referendum. It remains to be seen whether the exit finally takes place that the people have demanded of their leaders, since politics in general, and the EU in particular, are specialists in disregarding the will of the people even if there has been a transparent and official vote count. It is not for nothing that the Euroschizophrenia seems endemic for as long as the Old Continent has existed. In any case, even if the UK did not end up leaving the EU, the problems that Brussels would face are and would continue to be enormous. So let us number some of the burning issues that Mauldin believes the EU would still have on its hands even if Bremain had won:
- If Bremain had won, refugees from Africa and the Middle East, many bound for the UK, would still be dying on their Mediterranean route to Eastern Europe. And the EU would still be trying to stem the human tide in a bad and chaotic way.
- If Bremain had won, Greece would still be agonising under the imposed austerity that condemns its economy to the depression it has been in for some years now. Spain and Portugal would still fear being next.
- If Bremain had won, Poland and Hungary would continue to fight against EU impositions that interfere with their national sovereignty (sanctions on Russia, for example).
- If Bremain had won, several EU governments would still be mired in public deficits far in excess of EU limits. And the EU's powerlessness to correct such excesses, without the intervention of the dreaded Troika, would continue to become more and more evident.
- If Bremain had won, the ECB would continue with negative interest rates, buying private debt with public money and keeping insolvent banks afloat, which would have to collapse in order for the Eurozone economy to recover in the future.
- If Bremain had won, Russia and NATO would still be at loggerheads in the Baltic Sea, forcing the respective governments to spend what they don't have by increasing their defence budgets.
- If Bremain had won, ISIS-sponsored or ISIS-inspired terrorists would still be perpetrating attacks like those in Paris, Brussels or Istanbul.
- If Bremain had won, the illegal border controls would still be carried out within the so-called Schengen free movement area, throwing away one of the EU's most important and historic agreements.
- If Bremain had won, growing minorities would continue to call for an exit from the EU or the re-founding of a much lighter EU, closer to a simple trade agreement. Catalonia would still be trying to secede from Spain. Italy's Lega Nord would continue to agitate for secession in the north. The Walloons and Flemish would still want to get rid of their ties with Belgium. Marine Le Pen would continue to gain more and more followers in France.
- If Bremain had won, Austria's Supreme Court would still allow a very narrow margin of votes to allow a far-right party to govern one of Europe's largest countries. Frustration with immigration is growing and (with the exception of Scottish and Catalan nationalism, which are pro-European) most nationalisms are the opposite of EU loyalty. And they represent a rising tide that has no intention of receding.
- If Bremain had won, Italian banks would still be short of 400 billion euros, a huge portion of Italy's GDP. German banks would still be trembling, and so would European insurance companies. All of them severely affected by bleeding negative rates.
- If Bremain had won, criticism of the ECB would continue to grow, and negative interest rates would continue to severely distort European financial markets.
For all these reasons, the EU is facing a Brexit that, if it is finally carried out, will only accentuate the dark scenario that the EU already had on the table. A scenario it has been contemplating for years with the most desperate inoperativeness and incompetence. Let us hope that Brexit awakens this elephantine, bureaucratic, undemocratic and unsustainable EU from its inopia. At least it would have done some good to follow the democratic mandate that has emanated from the UK referendum.