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Ayer leí las declaraciones de un directivo de una entidad financiera en las que presumía de ofrecer hipotecas para su clientes de tan sólo (sic) un Euribor +0,33. Las hay más baratas y más caras, pero me sublevan las reflexiones que suelen perpetrar al respecto los vendedores de dinero o Bancos; y los top manta de la usura o reunificadores de deudas y credifáciles en general. Éste en concreto venía a decir que estas condiciones favorecían el acceso a los jóvenes con menos ingresos a un piso de propiedad. No aclaró propiedad de quién. Diariamente nos bombardean con slogans como: «Tu casa antes de lo que pensabas», «Bajamos el precio del m2» o «100% de financiación», en cambio pocas referencias al hecho de que necesitas una vida y media para pagar tu apartamento. Incluso te prestan el importe de la entrada durante 3 años para que puedas comprar sobre plano. Todo este amasijo de anzuelos y trampas infernales se presentan bajo la corrección política de la intención de «hacer accesible la vivienda a nuestros jóvenes». De juzgado de guardia.

Pero hoy quiero hablaros de las hipotecas con interés variable: ¿Es que nadie se da cuenta de que el problema no está en el diferencial del +0,33? El problema está en el Euribor en sí y en la mayor precariedad laboral que se avecina. Hace tan sólo 15 años el tipo de interés lo teníamos al 10,40%. Hipotecofílicos del mundo, recalculad aunque sea mentalmente lo que eso supondría en vuestra «estrategia financiera» actual… Bien, ahora el que siga consciente que le añada el diferencial del 0,33 o el que haya sido capaz de negociar hábilmente.

Quizás no alcancemos los niveles de tipos de Barcelona ’92 o la Expo de Sevilla, pero ¿quién nos garantiza que el Euribor no se aproximará o incluso superará ese nivel durante la próxima vida y media?

Hipotecarse generacionalmente porque las condiciones conseguidas son baratas hoy en cuanto a interés variable es como comprarse un Ferrari porque es diesel y no va a consumir más de 10, 15 o 20 litros de gasóleo a los 100. Para la inmensa mayoría de los habitantes de este país, comprarse un Ferrari está fuera de su alcance, aunque vaya a ahorrar un pellizco en gasolina 98. Pero las entidades financieras confunden y manipulan sin piedad, para que economías domésticas modestas con sueldos en precario accedan a Ferraris que cavarán su tumba financiera, o que en el mejor de los casos no les dejarán levantar cabeza económica durante el resto de sus vidas a poco que los intereses (o sus condiciones laborales) les estrangulen.

Por lo tanto, exigir que el diferencial del Euribor sea unas centésimas menor, me resulta absurdo cuando el auténtico riesgo se está obviando.

Siempre me sonrío cuando recuerdo una escena de la saga de Torrente en la que Gabino Diego, con la jeringuilla todavía colgando de su vena, pide al camarero que le sirva un zumo de naranja. Y a continuación le exige que sea natural, por aquello de cuidar la salud.

My friend Mafalda and her brother Guillermo, both bank workers, attended a few days ago some courses for private banking managers given by the Foundation of Private Banking and Personal Banking Managers and Advisors (Fundación de Gestores y Asesores de Banca Privada y Banca Personal).

They wanted to take these courses in order to be able to provide professional advice to their clients at the bank where they work. Their bosses had strongly recommended them to enrol in order to promote them as Personal Managers of small and medium-sized clients. If they became established in the position, they would subsequently be offered a job in the Master for Key Account Managers The Foundation also offers a course, with much more aggressive techniques to deal with the high competitiveness in attracting high-level clients.

She was so impressed by the course that the following week she was recommended that he resigned from his job because of an acrimonious conversation with the head of the bank's private banking department.

When she has finished her anxiolytic treatment she will start working full time, for the time being she only works in our family office in the afternoons. It has been good for her to be able to relax in the Fresh Family Office area and she has recovered a lot.

A few days ago I called his brother to congratulate him on his promotion. He was given a diploma and a commemorative video of the postgraduate course.

Guillermo asked me for an appointment and he seemed very agitated. I think he likes me.

“Things are really bad”. This is the refrain we are hearing every day in every corner of society, across all sectors and economic strata, with the exception of the very highest. Moreover, what began as a murmur amongst the most pessimistic and/or alarmist voices has gradually in crescendo until it has become a rallying cry today. Soon to be heart-wrenching.

Some are predicting a serious economic crisis that could lead to a financial collapse. There are those who talk about the future “corralito” Spanish. Those not-so-distant and recurring times when Argentinians would pack their savings into suitcases, briefcases and rucksacks to cross the Río de la Plata (the ‘charco’) in search of safe investments in their nearest paradise: Uruguay. That crisis in the neighbouring giant gave a further boost to the already luxurious coastal town of Punta del Este, a few kilometres from Montevideo – the Marbella of wealthy Argentines and Brazilians. Time will tell, but I sincerely believe we are a long way from that scenario.
Before the economic and financial system suffers structural damage that threatens its very survival, there is a long and painful road ahead: society still has plenty of room to become even poorer. By this we mean that we are still a long way from reaching the levels of “social suffering” seen in those South American countries. Although, unfortunately, the gap is narrowing.
The economic prosperity we enjoyed until very recently is still fresh in our minds: holidays, investment, consumer spending in general and optimism. The term was coined a person earning a thousand as the epitome of the final link in our financial system. Below this lies marginal and minority poverty – though that does not make it any more acceptable. But in recent times – in recent months, I would say – the situation has been deteriorating at a dizzying pace. Pessimism has replaced joy; what little consumption remains is more compulsive than rational. The banks’ encouragement of consumption and the consolidation of loans in times like these strikes me as even more sickening. The people on a thousand-euro monthly salary are starting to be the envy of quite a few people. Just a few months ago, people were still debating whether or not there was a property crisis, or whether it was simply a deceleration in the sector’s growth. Today it is the voice of the people and tomorrow, perhaps, history. Something is changing for most people, and quickly too.
The anchoring effect which applies lucidly Fernan2 The focus on markets and property in his post also misleads us psychologically when it comes to analysing the current situation and, above all, the economic development of our society. Our psychological attachment to the prosperity of recent times distorts our perception of reality. Yet, on the whole, the financial situation of the majority of the population is getting worse day by day.
Those who analyse the situation with a degree of discernment and speak of playpens, they thus attribute the difficulties to the financial system. According to them, the economy could suffer severely from the excesses of the property bubble, the banks could be overwhelmed and the state rendered incapable. No, gentlemen, the first on the list and those most likely to suffer in this scenario are ordinary citizens. In other words, the majority. Perhaps their attachment to the former welfare state is misleading them, but before the financial system begins to falter, the personal finances of ordinary citizens will deteriorate as far as necessary.
Fortunately, there is still a long way to go before our society reaches the level of social unrest seen in South America. Here, the rich can still drive around in Mercedes and BMWs, and even Porsches and Ferraris. In Brazil, no millionaire dares to be seen in anything more ostentatious than a Passat; you often see mid-range cars with a chauffeur and the passenger seat occupied. Express kidnappings are still in their infancy in Spain, and detached houses are still inhabited without having to be part of gated estates, with access barriers and armed security guards in their guardhouses in the darkest style Checkpoint Charlie, as is the case in most of the southern hemisphere.
It is true that we are beginning to hear about these ‘express’ kidnappings in our society, that burglaries – both violent and non-violent – in detached houses are now commonplace, and that crime in general is on the rise. However, these are not public order problems caused by a relaxation of security measures, but rather by the increase in need of certain sections of the population. Immigration does not help in this regard either, and the ‘state of discontent’ from which they fled seems to be growing ever closer to our now-longed-for ‘welfare state’.
But “don’t worry”, the blood of everyone It won’t reach the river. Our financial system is not in mortal danger as long as there is scope for further social deprivation. Unfortunately, that’s just the way it is. But the anchor effect In good times, it helps us look the other way. As he said, Supertramp in 1975: Crisis? What Crisis?

Hay quien dice que un nuevo crack económico está próximo. No está nada claro si se empieza a hablar de algo parecido al 29 de octubre de 1929 o simplemente de una crisis económica generalizada que puede afectar más o menos globalmente. Es evidente que la interrelación de las economías mundiales y el castillo de naipes que supone el sistema financiero moderno, no ayudan a asentar unas bases sólidas a prueba de crisis mundiales. Es decir, algunos empezamos a advertir los peligros de la globalisation macroeconómica y la superposición de productos financieros, que no sirven más que para especular (que no es poco). En los últimos años los ingenieros financieros han creado estructuras y productos inimaginables hace una década o dos, y que se soportan sobre bases que a su vez quedan ya muy lejos de la economía real tradicional. Estructuras complejas creadas sobre estructuras complejas.

Comprar o vender un contrato de petróleo por parte de cualquier particular es ya un juego de niños anticuado aunque ni siquiera sepa jamás qué aspecto tiene un barril ni su contenido. Hoy en día el brochure de cualquier producto estructurado supone un par de páginas explicativas de cómo se comportará dicho producto en el tiempo según los escenarios posibles. Texto, gráficos y fórmulas matemáticas relativamente simples que junto con la explicación del asesor o gestor correspondiente (a veces incluso de forma competente y objetiva), tratarán de hacer entender al comprador el funcionamiento de su nuevo juguete financiero. Pero este brochure o fact sheet tan sólo es el manual de instrucciones. Los auténticos planos constructivos del producto jamás llegan al inversor final. Son tan complejos que sólo son inteligibles por los padres de la criatura y sus colegas. Ingenieros financieros, a quienes cariñosamente me gusta llamar financos (por aquello de que a los ingenieros en telecomunicaciones se les llama telecos).

The thoughts I am about to set out may not be shared by younger readers, or indeed it is quite possible that hardly any of you will agree with them. But I have come to these conclusions after 20 years of observing markets in almost every colours and to get to know the profiles of investors who are quite greys. Let me make it clear from the outset that I do not intend to teach anyone anything, nor do I claim to be above good and evil – not least because it has taken me a great deal of effort, involving learning from my mistakes, bearing the scars and spending money, to arrive at these reflections. What’s more, I would gladly settle right now for being just halfway through a certain experience. Having said that, I recommend that you read (if you haven’t already) this article by The Rebuzner in which he offers a very interesting and entertaining analysis of investors and our ego. Now that we’ve set the scene, here are some additional points to consider which most of us tend to overlook, even though they’re obvious:

In a market of RV In a bull market, almost all of us investors make a profit, and in a bear market, the opposite is true. We usually look for the key to success in maximising profits during the boom and minimising losses during the downturns. Few of us would consider stopping investing in the stock market before we’ve got our fingers, wrists and forearms badly bruised. Who is forcing us to swim against the tide when we could be standing on the shore considering other forms of investment? It is true that, in the long term, the statistics show that returns as a whole outweigh bear markets. But no one can guarantee that we will live long enough to benefit from that average. Many investors lost all their money and/or their lives before the statistics could bestow their well-deserved blessing upon them. Nevertheless, if one retains enough investment capacity and good health to see the sun rise again, one will experience a few years of abundance during which it is best to put oneself in expert hands and learn – whilst enjoying – the journey.

But most investors confuse complexity with profitability. Many believe that doing something different from everyone else will lead them to success. This may be true, for example, in the business world, as setting ourselves apart from the competition usually yields good results. But in the markets, things are different, Competition becomes our ally and the majority view will prevail in the most efficient way. It is certainly true, as our much-admired Rebuzner that many people often think they are smarter than the market as a whole. They confuse the word «investment» and believe it defines what will happen to the market trend in which they are investing their money. Why should the trend of a security, sector, etc. invert Just when we decide to put our money in the opposite direction? Why must the majority agree with us the moment we start going against the grain? Isn’t it easier to go with the market in a prudent way, with solid assets and undervalued Should you back promising young talent or go against the grain? Mind you, I’m not saying it’s more profitable, just that it’s easier and better suited to the capabilities of most investors.

Of course, buying a company with exemplary fundamentals whilst its share price is plummeting is a perfectly valid and profitable strategy, but one that is not suitable for most ordinary people. The example of the ‘golden knives’ from Rebuzner It’s very vivid. But neither financially nor emotionally are we all prepared for investments which, although highly profitable in the medium term, make life difficult for us in the short term. In Technical and Fundamental Aspects The four risk management techniques for investments are discussed value, namely:

(a) Invest only in companies whose business we understand.
(b) With low financial and operational risk.
(c) Buy below intrinsic value.
d) Always take a long-term view.

Unfortunately, none of them are within the reach of most deadly investors: Understanding of these businesses is severely limited by a lack of information, time and/or expertise; the financial and operational risk posed by these companies is unlikely to be accurately assessed unless the first condition is met; buying below intrinsic value in a bear market will require a level of nerve and foresight that is uncommon amongst most people, whilst in a bull market few will recognise that needle in the haystack amidst the lack of information; finally, the culture of quick profits and a lack of experience will mean that very few will stick to a long-term strategy.

I’m not saying that the investor value I’m certainly not wrong, as I personally feel closer to him than to the fundamentalist or the die-hard technical analyst. But for most deadly investors These methods are beyond their reach. The average investor needs to simplify their strategies to suit their circumstances. That is why, when I read or see on channels such as tv Financial advice and tips on investing in the markets make me think. How would we view doctors (or quacks) who prescribed medicines to improve health without tailoring them to each of their patients? When I see in the media: ‘Buy, sell, hold,’, overweight This or that gives me the creeps. It’s as if I were looking at a generic recipe aimed at the whole audience, along the lines of: Please take Two tablets of this or that every 8 hours to live longer and better.

I would like to reiterate that I am not questioning the profitability of all these investment strategies, but rather their accessibility and adaptability for the average person. Unfortunately, over the years I have come across countless ordinary investors who believe they can learn to be immortals. They believe there are two types of investors in the world: those who still have a lot to learn and lose money; and those who have learnt a great deal and make a fortune to infinity and beyond. They are convinced that by training hard enough and gaining experience, they will reach the rank of immortal investors, capable of making consistent profits on the stock market and infinitely. They have examples in mind such as Buffet, Soros, etc. A grave mistake. Partially aware of their limitations, they would be content with a small fraction of the fortunes mentioned (sic). But the mirrors in which they see themselves are exceptional cases that prove the rule. Unfortunately, the rules of the game are different for the deadly investor.

Pragmatism, an awareness of personal circumstances, bearing in mind that stock market cycles are not always compatible with our individual circumstances, financial situation, family situation, timing and goals that are vital for determining acceptable risks, and humility – a great deal of humility – amongst many other things that I cannot quite bring myself to list.

For those with less expertise: simplicity and focusing exclusively on bull markets, guided by good fund managers with an indisputable track record.

May God grant good fortune to the most capable…

Hello, my name is Gurus Mundi, I am a deadly investor.

The two giants of the Spanish banking sector BBVA y BSCH have announced their decision to sell off almost all their property assets over the coming months. Of course, they have dressed up this strategy to make it politically correct. On the one hand, the BBVA refers to the centralisation of resources on a dedicated campus or business park; and another BSCH is selling off assets to fund the acquisition of 27.9% of ABN Amro. This correction Politics attempts to justify to the public strategic decisions that are plain to see – at least to us. BBVA It is centralising its facilities in a business park that will be entirely versatile; in other words, unlike the situation in Boadilla del Monte, it will be possible to market and to become profitable to let or sale to any interested prospective buyer. That is why there is talk of an «open-plan» layout with horizontal buildings featuring independent units that are easy to sell on a retail basis. For its part, BSCH «needs» to raise around €19,000 million to acquire its stake in ABN, although it has in fact been recognised in petit committee that this large-scale property sale will go ahead regardless of whether the acquisition of ABN goes ahead as planned or is called off for whatever reason. Clearly, the acquisition of the Dutch group could bring its share of properties into the group, but the reality is that the decision to sell the property portfolio of BSCH goes beyond and within the scope of this operation.

Realising gains from property capital appreciation, raising liquidity to optimise assets, balance sheets and lending capacity, restructuring internal, centralisation of resources, etc… All these arguments and phrases media-related are nothing more than a smokescreen for the reallocation of assets within the banking giants. Other major players such as Telefónica are also jumping on the bandwagon, the last one being the fool. The investment The property market is no longer just a business, and large companies are making major decisions that they conveniently gloss over, but the essence of it all strikes us as very Clarita: A 180-degree shift in investment strategy. Furthermore, we find that obvious, the cycle has not only come to an end but has been milked to the full. The rental yields that these banks guarantee to potential buyers of their properties are nothing more and nothing less than market rates. And although most property owners have become accustomed to achieving net returns of 2 or 3% of the property’s value at the height of the property bubble, these figures are easily surpassed by any self-respecting banking operation. In other words, it is far more profitable for a bank to pay rents at this level and thus be able to to make profitable It is better to invest their liquid assets in alternative banking operations. Furthermore, this change of course also avoids the risk of their property values falling in the near future. It is a time for cash, and we will not tire of repeating this for as long as we believe it to be the case.

It is undeniable that, with each passing day, the rich are becoming increasingly distanced from the poor and even from the middle and upper-middle classes. Whilst it is true that wealth continues to be created from nothing or very little, the growth of established fortunes is unequivocally rising at a greater rate. One factor that may explain this widespread growth amongst the wealthy is, perhaps, their ever-increasing understanding of the economic world, but also their use of specialist advice. An increasing number of wealthy individuals are preserving and growing their assets over time by developing their own expertise and/or engaging specialist services in high-net-worth management (ffamily offices). Private banking is no longer sufficient – in fact, it never was – as the comprehensive services required by anyone with medium to high net worth quickly overwhelm any bank manager. Furthermore, their dependence on the financial institution itself renders them ethically unfit to provide wealth advice to their clients, not to mention the technical incompetence of many of them. But let us not talk about bankers; let us turn to a more pleasant subject: asset diversification for high net worth individuals, which is also applicable to those with medium-sized portfolios. We shall therefore continue our work to demonstrate in practical terms that most of the protocols designed for managing large fortunes are also highly profitable for smaller estates.

But they will never do so in markets where property prices have already risen to saturation point, let alone in property bubbles.

At this point, let us once again compare the strategic position of the middle and upper-middle classes with that of the rich: What have most Spaniards done with their spare cash in recent years? Clearly, we are not talking about those who can barely afford to pay off their own, single mortgage, but rather those who have purchased – with or without a mortgage – other properties as a «safe investment» in which to put their savings. The answer is obvious: they continue to buy more and more properties that are not prime in a property market that it is not stable far from it growing or emerging. They may now be more selective, or at best have stopped buying, but very few have adjusted their strategy in line with the radical changes that the property market and interest rates have begun to undergo.

Making money by investing in property at the height of the property boom has been a piece of cake in recent times; even the most inexperienced have made huge capital gains. The bank would finance 100% (or more) of a property at a ridiculously low interest rate, and within a few months – or even weeks – the property’s value would rise spectacularly compared to the initial investment. Nowadays, some people are already facing serious difficulties in keeping up with these mortgages, whose interest rates are no longer a laughing matter. Others are beginning to realise that they will have to carry some mortgages for longer than expected. What’s more, prices have stopped rising or are even starting to fall, with a few exceptions. prime, of course.

Faced with this situation, what are many average investors in Spain doing? Quite simply, some have stopped risking their savings on new property developments – which are now seen as highly «uncertain» – and are instead «securing» their surplus assets on the stock market… A surreal strategy if ever there was one. What’s more, almost all of them refuse to sell their properties at current market prices, arguing that prices will never fall: «For less than so much »I’m not selling, I’m in no hurry, it will always be worth more.’ They compare these figures with the asking prices found in property listings and confirm their theory that, with very few exceptions, prices do not fall but simply stop rising. It’s a pity they forget one a minor detail: They are not for sale. The opportunity cost from that point onwards is enormous. The fall in prices is a matter of time, interest rates and the prime whichever property it may be. Consequently, the ability to maintain asking prices over time will depend on the owner’s needs. In other words, buyers with more modest means, who are hardest hit by rising mortgage rates, will have to lower their asking prices sooner if they wish to sell, whilst more affluent investors will be able to keep their properties on the market at above-market prices for longer, but will pay the opportunity cost of going against the trend. However, properties that are closer to prime level will be more likely to sell at the desired price.

At this point, why don’t we adopt the strategy of HNWIs and become Medium or even Low Net Worth Individuals? From our perspective, the answer is clear: firstly, a lack of knowledge about the correct strategy for each cycle; secondly, the widespread inability to invest in fixed income through high-yield financial products tailored to our investment capacity; and thirdly, the Latin culture of windfall and the drive to create sudden wealth.

For those with average or even low net worth, their own home already more than adequately covers the appropriate proportion of property holdings for an HNWI. In other words, our investment in property should focus on paying off our own mortgage over many years, and our savings should be channelled into fixed-income and equity assets in proportion to the current economic cycle. As wealth increases, our investment horizons will broaden, seeking to maintain a strategic allocation across the four main asset classes: fixed income, property, companies/businesses and equities. This allocation should be adapted to the prevailing economic conditions at any given time.

This financial progression goes hand in hand with personal development, as defined by…Abraham Maslow began in 1943 with his famous pyramid. Company Blog He offers us a light-hearted and up-to-date analysis of this through Pau, to whom, incidentally, we would like to publicly wish a happy birthday, so that he may continue to combine sound economics with entertainment through his sharp wit. At Family Office, a few years ago we adapted this theory to the world of high-net-worth personal finance, replacing the ‘Needs for Ego and Self-Actualisation’ with ‘Public Recognition’ and ‘Philanthropy’. This is based on our experience with family office clients.

In short, as our friend said Echevarri: «You have to be able to read the stage of the match we’re at.» And I would add that we also need to have the mindset and strategy of a top-flight team without losing sight of our limitations. After all, aren’t there teams at the top with very modest budgets? Once we’ve reached a certain level, the hard part will be staying up there, just as our headline says. «So let’s start with the easy bit…»

The concept of investment is one of the most difficult economic concepts to define. The most general definition that can be given is that, through investment, there is an exchange of an immediate and certain satisfaction that is renounced, against a hope that is acquired and of which the invested good is the support.

When it comes to investment, we are faced with a fundamental problem: determining the profitability of the investment project to decide whether or not to carry it out, and also, when a list of investment alternatives is available, these can be ordered from highest to lowest profitability, with the aim of prioritise the most profitable.

There are various criteria for valuation and selection of investments, some of them are:

On the other hand, there is a clear effect of the inflation and taxes when calculating the potential return on our investment.

To take these two factors into account in the calculation of the Capital Value, the formula would be as follows:

VC= - A + ((Q1 - tQ1)/ ((1 +K)*(1 +g)) + ((Q2 - tQ2)/((1+K)^2*(1 + g)^2)) +.....+(((Qn – tQn)/((1+K)^n * (1 + g)^n)))

Where t is the tax rate and g is the expected inflation.

All these methods are deterministic. The magnitudes defining the investment problem are considered to be perfectly known. The economic reality is different. It is difficult to know the future with precision. There are methods that introduce that component of risk or probability into the formulas, which makes them even more complicated, taking into account mathematical expectation, variance, .... but I think that would be excessive theorising.