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The US.US. are in a sorry state. We are not referring to the widespread chronic obesity among its inhabitants, nor to the mental instability of the armed schoolchildren who carry out massacres at their schools. We are referring to its economy and its geopolitical situation: a mortgage crisis that includes the sharp fall in the value of American banking in general, terrorist threat Islamist on its own territory, pseudo-warVietnamese in the Persian Gulf, their enemies southerners beyond the Castro supporters are on the rise, a nuclear threat from Russian-backed extremists, etc…

The invasive virus coursing through American veins and causing that state of shock with a very high fever and blood test results that were completely out of the norm, is appropriate from countries such as China, Venezuela, Iraq, Russia, Cuba, Bolivia, Iran and others who have injected a host of pathogens into the US economy. Their bad habits and the unsustainable domestic credit practices they have exported have done the rest. Their constant actions have ceased to to be, his life is in danger, and with it the survival of Western economies; for our part, we are trying to protect and save the life of our capitalist model with all the resources at our disposal. Europe has thus become the healthcare team on which the necessary recovery of what was once the world’s largest and strongest economy for decades depends.

That’s right, the US’s best and most powerful weapon has always been its position No.. 1 in the global economy. The traditional driving force of capitalism is now set to face far greater difficulties due to China’s unfair competition and the other ‘viruses’ that have been injected into it, causing it to become seriously ill worrying for those of us who depend on this breadwinner. There are many of us doctors and nurses who are treating him, medicating him, feeding him, caring for him and even praying in various languages and to various gods for his recovery. Europe, like other countries in the rest of the capitalist world, is sacrificing its currency, its banking and corporate profits, and whatever else is needed to restore American patient. Risking catching some (or all) of their ailments, and with the prospect of falling ill just as they are recovering Yankee should that happen. It is possible that in the future the patient may have to act as a doctor and vice versa, but I doubt that, once back on their feet and in a white coat, they would make such sacrifices to save the life of a European patient, even if that patient were terminally ill.

For the time being, blood transfusions worldwide are USA... essentially from Europe, whose blood type seems particularly compatible with that of the North American, is keeping the economy of that ailing world leader afloat. One euro shorta policy that keeps the dollar at levels that would revive the dead, turns the Plan Marshall in the 1947 singles peanuts now repaid, unwittingly, with usurious interest. We could talk about European altruism or the instinct for survival, since if Dad Yankee (the head of the family) dies, the rest of his European offspring will have a very, very hard time of it. What seems crystal clear to us is that this massive transfusion continues day after day, whilst Europe’s cheeks grow pale and wither away extremely proud the «strength of the euro, the world’s safe-haven currency» (sic). A rampant crisis in which we find ourselves trapped, with no room for manoeuvre in the short to medium term. Perhaps the lack of blood flow to our brain (the one upstairs) is one of the reasons why our beloved European stock market keeps rising and rising, oblivious to reality macroeconomic and the impending perfect storm.

Personally, I am less terrified by this anaemic scenario in the Old Continent than by the capitalist collapse of the New World, which could lead to the extinction of a financial system that would sweep away the very foundations of global capitalism. That is why I believe that Europe’s sacrifice is necessary if we are to revive the American patient by means of transfusions, vitamins, medication, rest and pampering. Their immune system starts to kick in and the scavengers native o foreigners help prevent life-threatening complications.

In Europe, it’s all about cash, but at US.US It's about time to start investing. As always, the article is insightful, Jose Mª Díaz Vallejo EURO/DOLLAR – The currency has taken a nosedive, in which he gives a few practical examples of the advantage that the recipient gains over time compared to the donor.

European altruism, solidarity or obligation to save the sick person, lest they run us over or leave us helpless in the face of a new (dis-)order worldwide with the enemies of North America on the head.

Perhaps Europe’s future inevitably lies in taking a hit in order to save the lives of the US.US. and then cross our fingers that the US leadership will be able to look after us during our economic decline, which is just around the corner – as distant as the recovery of our American patient.

A good shot from Yuan expensive oil and cheap oil would revive the ailing economy and, incidentally, the team Doctors Without Borders in spectacular fashion. I’ll tell my children to put it on their list for the Three Kings… from the East, of course.

Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year. Here’s to a better year.

As everyone knows that a fee is not the same as a commission. Etymologically, a fee honours the person receiving it, who is usually a self-employed professional, whereas a commission agent is not grants always the best reputation. It is a burden we all bear that banks charge all sorts of fees (small, medium, transparent, obscure and even Ali Drool), but… What if bank charges were levied as a fixed fee or percentage of each customer’s total assets, regardless of the products and services they use?

Let’s think about it. Let’s think about it again. Questions arise fascinating, isn't it? For example, quantifying this all-in-one fee It could be as simple as applying the average profit from the bank’s current customer accounts as a percentage of the amount contributed by the saver or investor. In other words, for every euro the customer deposits with the bank, the bank deducts its one-off fee annually, half-yearly, quarterly or however it sees fit. Obviously, loans and mortgages would have to generate the cost of the money itself separately, with whatever margin the financial institution wishes to add, as it would not be fair for a customer who generates an asset for the bank to pay the same as one who generates a liability (or perhaps it would). But from there on, it’s the same for everyone.

This is just a light-hearted exercise, and I hope it will prompt some comments from you all, which I’m sure will be very interesting and insightful. Some of you may think it’s unfair for a casual saver to pay the same proportion as a more active investor who will be using a whole range of financial products and tools. At first glance, it may seem that way, but Let's have a look at it One more thing: what happens to a saver who neither wants nor knows how to invest their money beyond seeing it reflected in their savings account? They are easy prey for fund managers who kindly cause to invest their money in financial products that no member of their family can understand. This harassment is constant, relentless and ruthless. The money unemployed Placing money in a simple savings account or a fixed-term deposit is considered negligence on the part of the bank employee on duty, bordering on gross misconduct. This misnamed ‘adviser’ needs sell financial products that improve their clients’ operating results if they do not want to lose their job. Furthermore, they must do so exceptionally well if they hope to progress within the organisation and move from a customer-facing role to a more senior position—in other words, to go from a rank-and-file employee to cigarette lighter. I have personally met a few honest and dedicated bank managers who try to to do as little collateral damage as possible whilst barely meeting their commercial obligations, but they all feel uncomfortable with the work they do and long to one day be able to offer independent advice without the commercial pressure they feel is being exerted on them by their superiors. Obviously Only a lucky few will succeed. The rest will continue to live by the rule that has been etched into their very being: Sell or die.

Some of you might say that this commercial pressure is common to most of the work we do, and that’s true. But as I see it, it is infinitely more serious to sell inappropriately a financial investment product which, for example, consists of a collection of DVDs that we don’t need. Ethically speaking, there is no comparison: the significance and danger of negligence when it comes to our heritage is vital not only for us but also for our children. You don’t mess about with food.

In a scenario where a bank manager generated exactly the same profit for their firm, regardless of the volume of assets or the type of investment their clients made, the advice would be provided in a manner infinitamentity more appropriate and tailored to the needs and intentions of investors and savers. Even their personal relationship with them would improve substantially if, instead of selling to them, I simply provided them with a service. A service that would be worth a fixed percentage of the total amount of money customers have deposited with the bank. The professional expertise of the fund managers and the banks themselves would do the rest, and moreover, the monitoring of these fees by a competent body would be far simpler and more effective.

This scenario would be far more hygienic and convenient than the current one. Many of you will think it’s unfeasible or utopian; perhaps it is. But at the end of the day, it’s how a family office any self-respecting to be, and therefore does not have its own financial products. Obviously, the bank should continue to develop its own products, but without shove them down their throats straight to the heart of the financially inexperienced customer – that is, the vast majority.

The current situation is unlikely to improve much with the MiFID, as reported Consumerist y Echevarri in his interesting articles. As he rightly says Echevarri: «…it ends up protecting financial institutions rather than customers.» More or less the same kind of exploitation we see on a daily basis will continue, since, unfortunately, bank profits depend largely on it.

Anyway, we just wanted to put this idea out there so that you can let us know what you think. It’s always good to give some thought to to question ourselves methods that do not have to be set in stone. Progress has always depended on this.

The £25 billion injections made by the Bank of England (Bank of England) to the popularised Northern Rock have been and remain a source of contention amongst Britain’s political and financial elite, as well as within the EU. The funds lent to ensure the bank’s solvency in the face of capital flight to other institutions are guaranteed by the Treasury. It could not have been otherwise; either solvency was guaranteed, or the domino effect could have put the entire British banking system – and by extension the European one too – in serious trouble. The consequences of this would be incalculable, and the banking sector in the US and the rest of the world is not exactly in the best of health, shall we say. Consequently, the actions of the FSA, from the Bank of England or the Ministry of Economy, was flawless and succeeded in containing the crisis perfectly; it will be fully resolved when the scavenger on duty do its job and take advantage of this situation, to the benefit of us all. For the time being, the vultures circling Northern Rock’s dying body are Olivant, Cerberus or Virgin itself, among others. I recommend this excellent article by Enrique Gallego, who understands the situation at this bank better than almost anyone else. Although, in the end, an even more powerful and professional vulture will probably step in, recycling the spoils with the approval of the Chancellor of the Exchequer (Darling) and returning the cheque to the forced lender, much to everyone’s relief. Faced with a crisis such as that of this bank or any other, and I would go so far as to say in general:

A loan is infinitely healthier than a grant, but an investment is even better.

But what is truly scandalous is that the European Commission is seeking to boycott this welcome rescue operation launched by the Bank of England, which has averted a crisis of confidence with potentially global consequences. Officials (some call them politicians or pseudo-bureaucrats) at the Commission are threatening to scrutinise these loans to ensure the integrity of free competition. The funds lent by the Bank of England are guaranteed by the British Treasury and could therefore be regarded by these officials as intolerable state aid. Unbelievable.

It should not occur to any rational mind—be it civil servants, politicians or bureaucrats—that Northern Rock’s competitors feel they are being treated unfairly because of the cash injections received to quell the crisis of confidence in the banking sector. But the European Commission’s inability to grasp the global credit landscape is made clear by its threats to launch an investigation. Ladies and gentlemen, no British bank – nor, for that matter, any bank in the world – has been treated unfairly because of the «preferential treatment» accorded to Northern Rock through the capital injections provided by its central bank. Quite the opposite, had these injections not been administered, the problem would have spread like wildfire. The explosion could have reached the ECB, the EDF and, of course, into the pockets of the European Commission itself. The potential for a devastating shockwave was effectively nipped in the bud from the outset by the guarantee of funds from the UK Treasury. The process will soon be perfected with the acquisition of the bank’s remains by the vulture of the moment, thus completing the cycle of the global financial food chain.

These are fundamental principles of the global financial and business markets, but they appear to pose a threat to the integrity of free competition in the eyes of certain European pseudo-bureaucrats, who could do with some basic lessons in common sense, the responsibilities of their positions, and a grasp of reality.

Pure incompetence, even if it’s disguised as overzealousness.

Almost all of us have at some point suffered from an infection that has required a course of antibiotics to clear up. These medicines, in tablet form, are usually prescribed in varying doses, with one or more tablets to be taken each day over the course of a treatment that often needs to be continued for at least a week. The symptoms of the illness (fever, decay, discomfort, etc.) do not disappear after the first dose, but usually do so after a few days and following several doses of the antibiotic. Similarly, once the symptoms have disappeared, we must continue with the course of treatment until it is fully completed; otherwise, we could suffer a relapse.

If we apply this dynamic to the current credit crisis, we can draw some interesting conclusions: Let’s say that the infection is the mortgage crisis, which is affecting the creditworthiness of almost our entire financial system. The fever and symptoms are evident in the stock market performance of that sector, the sudden rise in default rates across all types of debt, the necessary liquidity injections provided by central banks worldwide, and so on. Furthermore, this infection is not localised in our tonsils, as one might expect, but rather the source of the infection is mysteriously and dangerously widespread, as we have already explained in Where is Wally?. We are therefore faced with a sepsis credit in every sense of the word. But that is not the end of our clinical picture: this infection has struck us right in the middle of weakened immune system or, as it is also known, the energy crisis, with oil at $100 a barrel and rising; the rise in Euribor makes us choking y distress, as well as a depression The local estate agent is really putting us off everything. From the jihad globalised We’d better not talk, just in case our hypochondria proves to be more well-founded (or fundamentalism).

Given a clinical picture such as the one we have described, and always with reference to the average investor or patient, the most appropriate and effective treatment is rest to conserve our limited energy, fever-reducing to bring the fever down and, of course, a course of treatment antibiotic which must be strictly followed if we are to recover without relapses or complications. In fact, I would say it is the only possible treatment.

The rest, even if it is not absolute, we would apply it to our investments in RV since we are not in the best position to deal with the stressful current market. Perhaps in a few days’ time, when the fever has broken and we’re feeling a bit better, it will be time to make a strong comeback with our flexible investments. But as things stand, we need to take it easy and stick to really good food. The scraps are only for those who scavengers with pedigree.

The fever-reducing, in their various forms, such as property sales, will help us to lower the temperature in our oversized mortgage boom. Investments in RF They will also help bring our stock market fever down. If we also maintain our income by collecting our sick pay on time, we’ll avoid chills and shivers. In short, these are remedies that won’t cure the global infection, but they will help us feel less ill.

And so we come to the what on the matter: The antibiotic. Is there any effective medication to cure sepsis caused by the US mortgage crisis? According to our modest knowledge of economics and healthcare, this ‘antibiotic’ is called balance sheet showing a loss. Investment banks and the banking sector in general began a few weeks ago (some even earlier) to publicly acknowledge massive losses arising from collateralised debt. In other words, the defaults in the securitisations that the financos were built on feet of clay, and the sorters irreverently blessed them. It is only through the quarterly publication of losses—recognised and recorded in the relevant balance sheets—that they can be assimilated, reconciled, accounted for, realised and, ultimately, to digest los billions dollars and euros lost in securitisations qualified hammered with several A’s.

This slow and painful process of acknowledging gaps and losses that come out of the closet for to take shape in financial statements, they are the antibiotic tablets that will slowly but effectively cure the sepsis credit which the global economic system is suffering. Some accompany the publication of this dire news with a shameful resignation or a pretentious termination devastating from the head of everyone capi of the company. Although I doubt that the shareholders and/or those affected by that disregard for risk (don’t miss out on What’s happening in the financial sector? from JMDV) offers them any comfort at all. Perhaps seeing the credit rating agencies hanging in the Plaza Mayor would be quite a bit more rewarding, but I'm afraid there's no way to make up for it.

We now have a clear diagnosis (something we didn’t have at the start of the summer) and have started taking the first pill of a antibiotic treatment which may span two financial years fully aware. With the first doses, we won’t feel any improvement in symptoms just yet; it may take some time for that to happen. However, the publication of results is beginning to eliminate bacteria and microbes, and this elimination will become more evident and potent once the respective financial periods of the affected entities have ended. It will be then that the seals and signatures of the auditing firms, living up to their name, will certify the veracity (sic) of those losses. Some organisations will not be able to withstand this public and accounting scrutiny. But the natural course of events will take its toll, and then the scavengers with pedigree which will be responsible for absorbing aseptically human and financial assets that have not passed the accounting test.

Our convalescence It will be a long process, but it seems clear that we will come through this. That said, we must see the process through to the end and iron out all the discrepancies in the audited financial statements. And that may not be possible until we have had the accounts audited for a couple of years, as once we have closed the current will continue collateral debts are exploding in the hands of the world’s most financially sound institutions. For now, stick to your medication, get plenty of rest and take care with the fever.

This is proving to be a real struggle, no doubt about it. Along the way, we’ll lose a good chunk of our physical and mental health, as well as money—lots of money. Damn natural selection… or maybe not.

El azar me ha llevado hasta un post de solobolsa.org en que hace una simple reflexión de qué hacer si nos toca la lotería. Antes de entrar en materia permitidme que complete los datos de los porcentajes de afortunados que lo han perdido/gastado todo en 5 y 10 años: 35% en menos de 5 años; pero el porcentaje de arruinados se dispara hasta casi un 90% al cabo de 10 años. Terrorífico, ¿verdad? No obstante estas cifras habría que corregirlas ligeramente a la baja por los minoritarios casos que habrán eludido el fisco y se habrán trasladado a opacos paraísos fiscales, constando como uno más de la larga lista de empobrecidos.

Excepciones aparte, supongo que lo primero que habéis pensado todos al leer esta estadística es que «eso a mi no me pasaría», porque nos creemos capaces de cometer muchos menos errores que los demás. Quizás sea así en algún caso, pero es que los que cometen más imprudencias, novatadas y los más ingenuos y menos preparados, se arruinan muchísimo antes. Estos son los planes del autor del artículo y me temo que los de muchos, que probablemente jamás leerán nuestro blog:

– Repartir un 10% entre familia y amigos mas cercanos.
– Dar otro 10% a obras de caridad.
– Terminar de pagar mi casa, quitaría mi hipoteca.
– Cambiar el coche, que ya hace falta.
– 25%. Compraría unas acciones, mínimo 5 de ellas en diferentes sectores, con un dividendo alto, que me permita ganar al mes algo mas (a ser posible, bastante mas) de lo que gano en mi actual trabajo.
– 5% para inversiones en solares, pisos ó fondos inmobiliarios.
– El resto lo pondría en Fondos de Gestión Activa globales de Renta Variable y al menos un 5% en Renta Fija, predominando la de corto plazo.

Si repasáis un poco los planes del autor del artículo os daréis cuenta de que en su caso quizás al cabo de 10 años le quede algo de dinero, pero básicamente dependerá de la bolsa y de los nervios de acero que tenga cuando ésta baje y le tiente más invertir en algún negocio o vivir un poquito más la vida. Pero en ningún caso sus planes aseguran su futuro.

Primer error esencial: Gastar inmediatamente pequeñas partes para la familia, amigos y caridad. El segundo error esencial es saldar la o las hipotecas pendientes. El tercero comprarse un coche de inmediato. En cuanto al resto, excepto un 5% de inversión inmobiliaria y otro 5 % en renta fija a corto, su destino es exclusivamente la bolsa.

Pero la clave de estos errores no están tanto en el uso que se le da al dinero sino a la forma de estructurar la fortuna. Vamos por pasos:

Cuando un afortunado de lotería o heredero recibe una fuerte suma de dinero que le va a cambiar la vida radicalmente para bien o para mal, lo primero que debería hacer es buscar un Counsellor o asesor independiente con experiencia en este tipo de perfil. Evidentemente no es posible encontrar estos perfiles entre la banca privada, entre los bufetes de abogados ni entre los gestores o money managers de entidades financieras de inversión. Si la fortuna no es suficiente para contratar los servicios de un multi-family office y suponiendo que no se encuentre este asesor independiente apto para conducirle hacia el blindaje y crecimiento patrimonial a medio y largo plazo, vamos a intentar dar unas directrices genéricas que quizás ayuden a clarificar algunos conceptos a los que se puedan encontrar en una situación similar, bien sea por ser afortunados de sorteos o herederos.

En primer lugar hay que empezar por hacer trabajar el dinero en renta fija líquida desde el primer día. Así tendremos días, semanas o meses para buscar un buen Counsellor y tomar decisiones, muchas decisiones. Elaborar un wish list que nos permita diseñar cómo queremos vivir a partir de ese momento. Cuantificar los ingresos que necesitamos para mantener el tren de vida deseado e incluir las cuotas de las hipotecas a largo plazo de los inmuebles que deseamos comprar en un futuro inmediato. Una vez cuantificada esta cifra mensual o anual, debemos añadir imprevistos, seguros médicos, ayudas a terceros, necesidades asistenciales para familiares a medio plazo, crecimiento patrimonial global a IPCx2 y un largo etcétera que casi siempre olvidamos cuando realizamos un wish list sin el asesoramiento adecuado. Por supuesto, este listado será sustancialmente distinto de un caso a otro, ya que no podemos aplicar el coffee for everyone cuando se trata de diseñar nuestro modelo de vida futuro.

A partir de este momento debemos reestructurar nuestros activos para comprobar si generan suficientes rentas para cumplir con nuestro diseño de vida, incluyendo por supuesto las hipotecas fruto de la adquisición de los inmuebles deseados. Si no es así, deberemos revisar nuestro wish list a la baja. Obviamente un buen asesoramiento fiscal nos permitirá estructurar nuestro Plan Global de la Riqueza minimizando los tributos a pagar.

Existe una enorme diferencia entre recibir un premio o herencia y comenzar a gastar pequeñas (o grandes) cantidades para invertir el sobrante en RV; o bien utilizar las rentas fijas obtenidas por la totalidad de esos activos para gastar, ayudar, prever o comprar inmuebles con hipotecas. Lógicamente debemos tener la capacidad de poder colocar nuestro dinero para que obtengamos rendimientos superiores a los costes hipotecarios con el mínimo riesgo. Y esa capacidad la obtendremos con un buen asesoramiento, correcta desfiscalización y un volumen mínimo que nos permita acceder a ciertos productos financieros y por supuesto pagar los servicios de este asesoramiento integral experto.

Volviendo al ejemplo de nuestro amigo de SoloBolsa.org, veréis que se podría hacer prácticamente lo mismo: Repartir dinero a la familia y amigos, hacer donativos,cambiar de coche, etc. incluso invertir parte de nuestros rendimientos en bolsa. Pero ni liquidar hipotecas ni dejar el futuro del crecimiento de nuestros activos en manos de la RV, ya que ese crecimiento debe estar blindado y asegurado.

Estos protocolos adecuados para fortunas súbitas (afortunados de sorteos o herencias), son básicamente también aplicables a cualquier tipo de patrimonio medio y alto, aunque sean fortunas de nueva creación procedentes de la venta de inmuebles, acciones o beneficios empresariales.

Incluso en fortunas incipientes sin loterías ni herencias, como decíamos en nuestro artículo Cluster effect allá por el mes de abril:

«Aunque muchos no lo crean, hacer lo correcto y trabajar con rigor y sabiduría atrae la Fortuna. Quizá la buena suerte no sea tan aleatoria como los necios pretenden, y me atrevería a decir que a nivel económico ni siquiera tan injusta.»

Casualmente he topado con la relectura de este artículo que escribimos el 19 de mayo. Vistas las circunstancias y perspectivas actuales de todo nuestro sistema económico, me parece cuando menos chocante este caso, que no obstante es real como la vida misma. Creo que vale la pena releerlo y realizar que en medio de la selva financiera en la que vivimos, existen personas ajenas a casi todo cuyo rol es ser pura carnaza para cubrir deficiencias del sistema. A mi me hace reflexionar, ¿y a vosotros?:

«A olivo mas uno».

Sin embargo, I love this game!

Las previsiones siempre son fáciles de realizar pero muy difíciles de acertar. Ya he comentado repetidas veces que la especulación en divisas es la madre de todas las especulaciones. Pero de la misma manera también me atrevería a decir que especular respecto a la evolución de los tipos de interés es una de las apuestas o especulaciones más previsible de las que podemos realizar en todo el panorama del escenario económico.

No obstante, el momento actual vivido a partir de este verano por la crisis global de crédito, ha añadido una gran incertidumbre en esta materia. El rally alcista de tipos tanto de $ como de € se ha visto truncado insospechadamente por la grave inestabilización del mercado hipotecario norteamericano. El temor a que la burbuja de crédito titulizado globalmente pueda estallar ha obligado a un radical cambio de rumbo en el ciclo alcista de tipos de las dos monedas de referencia mundial.

El Servicio de Estudios del BBVA advierte según anuncia Expansión que dentro de tan sólo un año podemos ver el Euribor al 3,9% contrastando con el 4,725 actual.

Si como decíamos al principio la especulación en divisas es la madre de las especulaciones, la de tipos de interés podría ser la menor de sus hijas. Por lo tanto ¿cómo podríamos sacar algún beneficio de este mayor nivel de predictibilidad? Una opción lógica sería posicionarnos en renta fija a medio o largo plazo, abandonando la estrategia contraria que ha sido recomendable durante el reciente tramo alcista de tipos que hemos vivido. No estamos diciendo que se abandone la RV en favor de la RF sino que nos planteemos un cambio en la estrategia del horizonte de inversión de esta última.

Parece razonable que si los efectos negativos de la crisis de crédito van a prolongarse en el tiempo debido a la implicación de hipotecas titulizadas a medio y largo plazo, también podamos esperar un escenario de tipos flat a medio o incluso algo bajistas a corto. El fantasma de la inflación tan temido por todos los organismos oficiales en tiempos de bonanza, pasa a ser un mal menor en épocas de crisis mayores como la actual de crédito y liquidez del sistema. O sea que el fantasma no asusta tanto al lado de un Alien, y es mejor un repunte de la inflación que un colapso del Sistema. No obstante ya dejamos clara nuestra opinión acerca de la posibilidad de que esta crisis se llevara por delante el Sistema a pesar de los pánicos irresponsables. Podéis releer a toro pasado (no todos los textos aguantan este ejercicio) los artículos que escribimos en pleno clímax de la crisis allá por el mes de agosto: Oportunidad histórica o colapso económico global (I), también la segunda parte y (II), or No news, bad news...good opportunities.

Un frenazo en los tipos mejora las expectativas de superación de la crisis y hace aún más atractiva la inversión en RF, prestando nuestro dinero preferentemente a empresas solventes y alejadas del sector financiero, aunque también podemos asumir un riesgo mayor y encontrar verdaderas gangas dentro del sector, como se planteó en su momento Buffett. Pero no cabe duda de que la crisis de confianza nos deja auténticas perlas con rendimientos que aún brillan más con un frenazo de tipos.

Los inversores que no entienden una diversificación de su patrimonio sin un abrumador porcentaje de sus activos en inmuebles, sufrieron un golpe psicológico muy duro cuando tuvieron que aceptar la evidencia de que el mercado inmobiliario español había tocado techo. Aunque a algunos les costó más de lo deseable concienciarse de que el ciclo alcista se había colapsado, finalmente parece generalmente aceptado que las nuevas inversiones en ladrillo había que realizarlas en otros países con un mayor potencial rally alcista.

Algunos ya emigraron hace unos años a countries como por ejemplo Bulgaria, Rumanía o Marruecos en busca de los pelotazos a los que estaban acostumbrados. Otros lo han hecho recientemente y a destiempo ya que, como en la bolsa, el último euro lo deben ganar otros. No obstante los más avispados han rizado el rizo intracomunitario en Malta con excelentes resultados. En definitiva especuladores, bolsillos llenos e incluso pequeños inversores en busca de ciclos inmobiliarios alcistas, que acompañen en el tiempo al despertar de países con economías incipientes, que se incorporan a la todopoderosa EU (o también llamada pardillo pokeriano).

Como bien nos explica Echevarri, the rentabilización vía alquileres en España está endémicamente descuidada. Y esto nos empuja aún más al abismo de la inversión inmobiliaria en countries en vías de quiénsabequé.

Pero ante este panorama desmotivador para los que no conciben su progresión patrimonial sin cemento y ladrillo, se ha abierto un viejo-nuevo mundo y brillante paraíso. ¿Por qué no dejan de mirar hacia el este y comienzan a mirar hacia el oeste?
Allí hay de todo: Países desarrollados, países en vías de desarrollo e incluso también países en vías de quiénsabequé. Y todo ello bajo un denominador común maravilloso llamado US $. Efectivamente, con el euro a dolar y medio cualquier inversión en casi todo el continente americano es una auténtica ganga. Tan sólo hay que escoger según nuestras preferencias de inversión: Inmuebles primes en pleno Manhattan, resorts al más puro estilo Marina d’Or en Florida, el México más turístico, centroamérica, Caribe, Brasil, Punta del Este (Uruguay), Argentina, etc, etc, etc. Tan sólo faltaría que la familia Castro se apuntara a la fiesta del Euro y que pronto La Habana se convirtiera en un pequeño Shanghai a 90 millas de Miami.

En definitiva una verdadera borrachera de inversión inmobiliaria a dólar y medio por euro. ¿Habrá quien siga prefiriendo chapurrear Húngaro o Rumano antes que conquistar las Américas con un perfecto Espanglish?

Me viene a la memoria aquella película en blanco y negro titulada Bienvenido Mr. Marshall con aquella entrañable cancioncita: «Os recibimooos americanos con alegríaaa«. Pero bien pensado el aterrizaje de inversión europea en América es sólo especulativo y sin el ánimo reconstructivo que tuvo el Plan Marshall, aunque buena falta le haría de Chihuahua para abajo.

En fin, siempre servirá para calmar el mono de inmuebles de los inversores españoles y europeos. Con un euro a dólar y medio, vuelve a cobrar sentido la definición de Nuevo Mundo. Esperemos que no acabe como el Salvaje Oeste. Ni que dentro de unos años Europa vuelva a necesitar un Plan Marshall para reconstruir las consecuencias de los excesos del Euro. Por el momento, como dirían los integristas inmobiliarios: God bless America, in «ladrillo» we trust.

¿Qué es más importante, ganar un partido o un campeonato? ¿Un GP de Fórmula 1 o ser el campeón del mundo? ¿Ganar una batalla o la guerra? Vemos infinidad de veces a deportistas que conservan el resultado estratégicamente, a veces tan sólo puntuar es vital para ser campeón. Dosificarse, conservar la mecánica o los neumáticos, levantar el pie del acelerador en momentos críticos donde otros arriesgan más por necesidad o por inconsciencia. Todo ello forma parte de estrategias necesarias para triunfar.

Sin embargo cuando se trata de nuestro patrimonio, nuestra visión de la estrategia se difumina y se simplifica hasta extremos muy peligrosos. A la mayoría sólo le importa el rendimiento a corto que van a conseguir con su efectivo. Y pierden de vista el objetivo final, que debe ser el crecimiento sostenido de everyone sus activos a lo largo de las décadas. Como dijimos ya en El inversor Resiliente del mes de Julio:

«Todos somos capaces de generar buenas inversiones, simplemente debemos asesorarnos por alguien que nos evite generar un buen número de malas.»

Pero lo más importante es ser consciente de que la evolución a largo plazo de nuestro patrimonio será la suma de éstas dos, las inversiones buenas y las malas. Y también de la evolución futura que seamos capaces de proporcionar al resto de nuestros activos, que no son inversiones propiamente dichas. A pesar de ello, la mayoría de personas se centran en conseguir el mayor porcentaje de incremento de su dinero en efectivo, echando cuentas mensuales, semestrales o anuales, pero pocos miran más allá. Los inmuebles se traducen a alquileres y a una plusvalía pasiva que, de forma poco meritoria, vendrá por sí sola con los años (no obstante, como hemos explicado en un post anterior, nos atrevemos a contradecir alguno de los principios de Kiyosaki). Pero lo que sin duda supone el mayor error es esa ofuscación por la inmediatez de la rentabilidad de nuestro efectivo, que no exige rigor alguno.

Comúnmente hablamos de inversores, cuando en realidad deberíamos hablar de gestores. Aunque a la mayoría sólo le preocupe una inversión en función de su beneficio a corto plazo, lo correcto sería gestionar y/o autogestionar nuestros propios activos para su crecimiento a largo plazo. Esa es la mejor manera de ganar dinero a lo largo de nuestras vidas. Por el contrario, centrarnos sólo en el afán por conseguir un 10, 20 o 30% en bolsa cada 31 de diciembre, puede tener resultados negativos para el resto de nuestro patrimonio a largo plazo.

The desfiscalización paulatina de nuestros activos a medida que van creciendo es una estrategia ganadora a medio y largo plazo, ya que cuando un patrimonio es todavía incipiente es mucho más fácil sentar las bases legales para que su crecimiento se produzca ya en un entorno de baja fiscalidad. En cambio cuando un patrimonio es ya considerable la desfiscalización que se puede obtener legalmente es mucho más limitada, aunque nada despreciable si se realiza imaginativamente y de forma experta.

The Strategy, en mayúsculas la debemos diseñar nosotros, si es posible de la mano de un Consejero o Counsellor, pero siempre adaptándola a las necesidades presentes y sobre todo futuras de nuestra familia. El otro factor clave es el Rigor. Las desviaciones de nuestro plan patrimonial estratégico por falta de rigor, son las causas más habituales de la pobre progresión (o regresión) de nuestro patrimonio a lo largo de los años. Por supuesto todo ello debe actualizarse periódicamente en función de los cambios que se produzcan en nuestras vidas: Laborales, familiares, geográficos, etc.

Los Campeonatos son de los gestores (o autogestores), mientras que las carreras o los partidos están plagados de inversores que sólo persiguen la gloria del resultado inmediato y puntual, poniendo en serio peligro de lesión o accidente a aquellos que tienen como único objetivo ser campeones y formar parte de la historia de ese deporte.

Whilst re-reading some of our articles from a few months ago, I came across one that I’d like to revisit—or for those of you who’ve only recently started following us to read for the first time. It’s about the A Guide to Financial Independence for the Average Household.

That said, whether you’ve read this before or not, I’d like to emphasise the potential our heritage holds if we harness it properly and make the most of everything it has to offer. Cash, business opportunities, but above all the properties can and should generate income which go far beyond simple rentals which they can only hope to secure at best. All our properties can be an asset, even the properties we reserve for our own enjoyment.

Let’s remember that Robert Kiyosaki In his numerous books, he proclaims to his readers that «your home is not an asset», referring to the long-standing custom of treating properties used for one’s own use and enjoyment as just another item on the assets side of the balance sheet, which in reality only «take money out of your pocket». But if we can find alternative financial arrangements capable of generating fixed and secure income that exceeds mortgage costs, we can turn this scenario on its head:

The property cycle has now run its course. And it will remain so for the next few years. But for those who feel uncomfortable unless the bulk of their assets consists of property, even during downturns, there are some very attractive financial solutions. Apart from any rental income they may generate, utilising the mortgage value of their property will allow them to continue to benefit from the potential return on that capital and future capital gains on the properties, even for those intended for their own use.

Let’s take an example: We suggest to a new Family Office client that they divest themselves of property in favour of cash, so they can invest in fixed-income securities that will generate a regular income, which will be applied appropriately and rigorously to their PGR. But he argues that some properties have sentimental value that he wishes to preserve, or he is confident that property is a safe investment even in a cycle such as the one we have now entered. Or perhaps he does not feel comfortable without owning a certain number of flats, plots of land, etc., which he believes will not be affected by the crisis in the sector. They also argue that if the bear market suddenly turns into a bull market, not being positioned would entail a very significant opportunity cost. Well, the solution we would propose is the initial conversion of properties intended to generate rental income – those to which you have no particular attachment and which are likely to sell for cash. You could also use a mortgage to finance properties with sentimental value or those intended for your own enjoyment, and invest the proceeds in high-security fixed-income investments at a higher interest rate than the mortgage rate. All of this would be implemented financially to generate fixed income in the most advantageous way, and immediately afterwards, this income would enable the acquisition, via mortgage or leverage, of new properties that are better selected and suited to the PGR. The opportunity cost would be eliminated as potential capital gains would remain intact, the selection of properties would be better suited to the family’s present and future needs, and furthermore, the fixed income generated would, of course, comfortably exceed the mortgage costs of all transactions. This margin would even allow for other applications within the PGR that we would design in conjunction with the client. Each case would be carefully assessed to make such rental income tax-free to the greatest extent possible, whilst the mortgages on the client’s primary residence would provide tax relief. We have just created a Cluster effect using the client’s assets to achieve the current PGR whilst ensuring spectacular future wealth growth.

Tax exemption, leveraged fixed income, rigour, maximising returns on everyone Property, etc., are some of the key elements required for certain wealth restructuring strategies aimed at making the most of all available resources to achieve optimal growth and, ultimately, to find happiness through wealth, whatever its scale.

Even though our much-admired Kiyosaki described as liability properties for personal use, and in most cases he is quite right; there are ways to turn them into assets without giving up the right to use and enjoy the property, and even generating a double return on rented properties. And, of course, all this whilst maximising the potential for sustained growth in property values over the medium and long term. If I may Mr Kiyosaki.

Yours sincerely, Global Counsellor y Gurús Mundi.

P.S. We’ve run into trouble with the Church. I have a feeling this post is going to get quite a few comments…