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Cluster Family Office Blog

Steinmeier will face Merkel in February: Auf Wiedersehen EU

Merkel has had no choice but to accept Steinmeier as the next German President. The political significance of this news is still underestimated by many. It is no coincidence that Frank-Walter Steinmeier is the Foreign Minister who signed the document a 9-page document with its French counterpart, which laid the foundations for what will become the new Franco-German superstate. It is worth noting that this official document had already begun to challenge what until recently had been regarded as sacrosanct principles within the EU, with statements such as: ”We need to recognise that Member States differ in their levels of ambition when it comes to the project of European integration”. Or the unequivocal and damning statement in which he declares the failure of monetary policy: »The current architecture of the euro is not sufficiently resilient to external shocks or internal imbalances»… ”Surplus and deficit countries will have to make adjustments, as a one-sided alignment is politically unfeasible". Also the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator (and former Belgian prime minister) Guy Verhofstadt, set out six points on which the new Franco-German superstate is to be based. Of particular note is point 4, which states, quite simply: «Set up a central Brussels Treasury», naturally independent of the ECB in Frankfurt. That’s quite something.

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Returning to Steinmeier, the Foreign Minister who signed such an unambiguously «Franco-German» document with his French counterpart, as we mentioned, he will be the new President, standing in opposition to the pro-European Chancellor Merkel, from 12 February (in just three months’ time). Furthermore, Steinmeier has declared himself totally opposed to Trump’s idiosyncrasies, which would rather speak to Farage than to May, so the stage is set for a volatile mix.

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From this point on, international political stances that once seemed monolithic have begun to resemble the chaos that ensues when an anthill is trampled on: France and Germany are stepping up their military preparations (technically still under some supervision from Brussels) in view of the foreseeable weight loss within NATO's structure. Bulgaria elects a former military officer as president, who declares himself unequivocally so close to Putin as being far removed from Brussels. Because this EU no longer appeals to either the North or the East, and it seems that only we in the South remain under the spell cast by the Eurocrats and the ECB’s endless liquidity. Investment gurus are already recommending to capitalise on the new opportunities opening up for Putin (Steinmeier is also closer to Putin than Merkel.). And watch out, because some hedge funds are already talking openly about their calls for the EU to break up.

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For the time being, bond prices have begun to fall, despite the fact that the ECB’s ‘pompers’ continue to pump money and solvency into the system at a furious pace to prevent the end of its induced coma. Meanwhile, investors who fail to prepare their assets and wealth for the scenario of a break-up of the monetary union will be left at the mercy of the winter we’ve been talking about for a long time now. Germany is certainly already preparing for this new scenario by electing a President such as Steinmeier and selecting a select group of economically compatible countries as partners in the new United States of Europe. Goodbye, EU.

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