In this map we can see the projected GDPs for 2015.
But this growth has not only been based on the wealth creation capacity of the M1 conglomerate (banknotes, coins in circulation and liquid securities). In other words, growth has not been based on the traditional wealth in circulation. Had this been the case, growth would have been much slower, but at the same time probably more robust. Growth has also been based, especially in the last couple of decades, on the M3 conglomerate. This includes M1 and M2 and money created on the basis of credit, institutional and long-term deposits, i.e. all money that is recorded as an electric impulse and book entry and does not necessarily have a physical or tangible counterpart. This conglomerate has also grown disproportionately in recent years. It now exceeds M1 by more than 10 times and is growing (it was growing until a few months ago) at a rate of 15% per year (i.e. +1.5M1/year). It has to be said that the clusters are vaguely defined and calculated, so I would not consider them a reliable macroeconomic tool as such. But in this day and age, we must certainly keep a close eye on the behaviour and evolution of the Money Supply.
Precisely because this growth is also based on M3, the fall will be harder. In other words, the impoverishment or destruction of wealth (production, jobs, profits, etc.) will be more severe due to the level of indebtedness of the general population. The prevailing welfare state in the first world has also been based, and abusively so, on money owed. In this way we have used money in the present to generate money in the future, as we have already commented in Back to the Future. Paradox of Time and Money, and not only because of the abuse of derivatives. And to be honest, we should bear in mind that part of the present welfare state also comes from the future. In other words, we have mortgaged our future welfare in order to recklessly optimise the present welfare state. To give a sadly topical example, it is as if we were to produce a litre of alternative fuel (with the same energy potential as petrol), but at a cost far higher than a litre of petrol. Or, in the height of inefficiency, to obtain this litre of alternative fuel we would have to use 2 litres of petrol, for example. Similarly, our welfare gains of the last decades have been dangerously and grossly inefficient and have squandered future welfare.
At the current time of credit crumbling and the real estate and energy crises, this unbridled burning of future wealth will aggravate the consequences of the current crises. A large M3 amplifies the positive effects, we know this well and we thought we were very clever at the time. But beware, it also amplifies them in the negative, and today we should know ourselves to be very foolish for that.
The coming social misery for the first world will be as harsh as it is globally deserved. Although the righteous almost always pay the price for the sinners, the financos abused the inversopaths; but also the creditors abused hypophiliacs without investor status, which in turn abused their inefficient welfare. We all bear our share of responsibility, with the logical exception of those parts of the planet that did not even have the capacity to participate in the System and whose only concern was, and is today even more so, to survive famines and epidemics.
This multiple crisis is here to stay, and the future will not save us. We have already spent it. How far have we spent the future? That is undoubtedly the million-dollar question. A million that, of course, we also owe.