Many have traditionally thought, and even more do so in times of crash, about entering or exiting equity markets on the basis of the Switch Mentality. We have given it this name because it only contemplates two radically different positions: On and Off. In other words, we are up to their necks in it o nwe keep you in liquidity. However, we must bear in mind that, even at these two extremes, there are those who remain liquid with small percentages in stocks that were left up there, such as
a mountaineering anchor that was put in place with the intention of making progress but is waiting alone for the market to one day approach it and make it useful again as an investment. And at the other extreme, there are also those who are not only up to their necks in the stock market, but also owe mortgages or even loans they took out to take advantage of the bargains with PER's as low as 25 or 50.
Most of them, however, have a Switch Mentality that only contemplates the simplistic patrimonial strategy of in or out of the stock market. As we explained in Circumstances vs Return/Risk, Our wealth is much more than the money in the bank. Moreover, within what is cash, we must be clear about how much of it we can risk in the stock market, and be aware that this money may not only not generate income for us, but may also be lost to a large extent. All this, within the framework of a Vital Balance which is the roadmap of our life and heritage. For all these reasons, the Switch Mentality is not only simplistic, but also extremely dangerous, as it only has a chance of success if we can guess the exact moment of the market floor. And even then, depression can condemn our longed-for liquidity to a despairing market. flat for many years. Most forget that, even in a non-depressive era, the Dow Jones barely rose by 10% between 1965 and 1983.


I know that many of you will say that with very small assets, the amount to be invested in equities allows little room for manoeuvre. And that is reasonably true, even if, depending on personal circumstances, the percentage of total assets that are susceptible to risk is higher. But for the middle and higher heritage, the switch mentality is one of the most serious mistakes that can be made, as it has only one and only one chance of success. as mentioned above.
Obviously this mentality must be incompatible with a long-term investment that seeks value in our purchases. But it is also reckless to rush in and out of the market even for investors who rely on technical analysis, as they still have only one chance of success even if some figures are highly reliable. Mistakes and/or technical exceptions, with this mentality, can have even more serious consequences than for the investor. value.
«If you can't do the time, don't do the crime.»