I find it highly implausible that the US intelligence services would fail to detect and thwart such mass movements. If they had taken place, they would have been thoroughly investigated, just as they were a in retrospect, regarding the unusual put options on airlines taken out shortly before 9/11 in that fateful year of 2001. The outcome of that investigation was, on the one hand, the investor in question providing a valid justification as a hedge for other open positions; and on the other hand, a recommendation from a stock market magazine that led to another significant purchase shortly before the attacks. Everything was thoroughly traced, investigated and clarified in hindsight. Given this background, it seems implausible that large-scale operations could be carried out by the masterminds behind potential attacks in the coming days of September without the knowledge and subsequent reaction of the FBI or the SEC.However, no one should be under any illusion that we are currently facing the most difficult period in our global economic system—I would go so far as to say, since 1929. In a scenario such as the present one, a potential attack on the scale of that of six years ago would cause serious damage to the confidence and investments of most of the world. Undoubtedly, the current credit crisis, combined with an attack of enormous proportions, would send shockwaves through the very foundations of our global economy. Panic would only serve to amplify this, although I am convinced that things would eventually return to normal sooner or later.
For all these reasons, I would like to explain my personal view of the situation:
1. It is true that we could see a large-scale attack or attempted attack around 11 September. If, for a moment, we put ourselves in the shoes of an Islamic fundamentalist fighting to bring down the American enemy and its financial system, we would, if we could, take advantage of the current credit crisis in the system to try to cause as much damage as possible at the worst possible moment.
2.- If, unfortunately, this were to happen, it would present another golden opportunity for our investments. After all, what would truly be unthinkable is the possibility that the global economic system might collapse irrevocably, giving way to who knows what.
Personally, I have always been convinced that Bin Laden died buried beneath one of his caves or as a result of a cluster bomb during the war in Afghanistan. Let’s not forget that he used to treat us to a new provocative video every week until one fine day he decided to stop making short films. Since then, we’ve had nothing but the odd audio tape of appalling quality, featuring a voice that could belong to any of his heirs. Perhaps his camera battery ran out and he never found a power socket again, but I prefer to think he simply died. However, a French newspaper reported his possible death from typhus in Pakistan over a year ago. The uncertainty of not finding the body and a strategic decision by the CIA have deliberately kept his image alive for some indecipherable purpose.
In any case, if – as is to be expected – there are no major terrorist incidents on a global scale in the coming days, we will continue to make the most of the current opportunities and try to slowly heal the wounds caused by the threat of credit crunch. And if, unfortunately, we were to suffer a global attack, some would panic whilst others would carry on elephant hunting, as always. Whatever happens, we must invest responsibly, as hysterical speculation can damage the system even more than the bombs themselves.