It is still unclear whether what was supposed to be a complete overhaul of the market, a clean slate, a fresh start or, as the experts A «healthy, strong and widespread correction of the excesses of recent months» may be cut short. Perhaps we are looking at staggered declines, and over the coming weeks we will see a somewhat atypical and erratic sell-off – but a sell-off nonetheless.It’s not that we’re hoping for a sudden, devastating crash that would mercilessly punish investors, but if the sell-off doesn’t go any further than we’ve seen so far, we’ll be left with a strange feeling. Something like a coitus interruptus. As the JMDV, Master of Risk, If confidence does not return after the slowdown, when the economic expansion is due to begin, but instead returns earlier, halfway through, a bad situation.
The macroeconomic fundamentals being discussed in Davos are beginning to move away from euphemisms and call a spade a spade. And this stands in even sharper contrast to the spectacular market rallies (particularly in Europe) that we are seeing this week. But in a climate of confusion such as the current one, we believe that the slump that began on last Monday’s ‘Black Monday’ was a way of fitting together many pieces of the economic jigsaw puzzle we have been grappling with for many months. To the new world order which we do not yet understand, and which is why We find it chaotic, it would be in his best interests to start from a stock market scenario lacking momentum, such as the TriNa. An aerophagic world, with oil at 100 $ and fundamentalist nuclear terrorism, amongst many other recent evils, has very little tolerance for bubbles.
That is why what might at first glance be seen as a positive – that is, preventing a further fall in the markets and minimising what began as the storm perfect, leaves us with a strange sense of unease. Although it might seem typical of a character from a novel by Sacher-Masoch, this sudden halt to the falls leaves us with the unpleasant feeling that coitus interruptus. I know that those affected by the recent stock market falls – that is to say, almost everyone in the West – may not understand these arguments and may even take offence. But this is by no means a mockery of other people’s misfortune; I myself am suffering the effects of the falls in Chinese or US equities, for example. Furthermore, almost all our clients have been negatively affected to a greater or lesser extent. That is not the point. The point is that the depth of this misnamed ‘crash’ does not seem sufficient, and the timing Nor are the repercussions of this allowing for prudent restructuring.
As always, time will tell. Perhaps we will eventually see the falls deepen, or perhaps we are looking at a platform from which new rallies will take hold, which time will prove to be solid. But our feeling, I wouldn’t even call it an opinion; it’s just that we should suffer more in order to sufficiently atone for the lustful excesses of our recent past.
«Those who love you best will make you cry.» I would never have thought that could apply to the stock market.