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Cluster Family Office Blog

Alternative Shaves.

The fishermen arrived in the middle of a troubled river. And of course they won. They won over chastened followers (or inept ones) who wanted to see alternative investment as a substitute for the bullish rallies to which the stock market has been giving them a hard time since the beginning of time. Their world, of course. A world, that of these investors, which is inconceivable without capital gains in equities that in many cases exceed the earning capacity of their own work. How clever we all were, weren't we?
But then came the stock market cuts and the reproaches began to be heaped on their vaunted managers and bankers. Why didn't they warn them that they were going to suffer such large and persistent losses? Isn't that their job? What use are their ties, their courses (not even masters anymore), their experience...? Faced with this avalanche of blame, managers tend to react in two very different ways:

  1. The incompetent and inexperienced (although there are some middle-aged ones) are as surprised as the client himself. I would never have imagined that VR could lose so much and, more importantly, beyond one or two bad years. Most have even dragged down not only their clients but also their family and close friends, and of course their own savings. In fact, the only one they have not harmed is the very entity they work for, since they have sold fish left, right and centre, generating a large amount of commissions. But that does not mean they will keep their jobs, since the flight of clients, and the consequent reduction in profits in the manager's operating account, inevitably digs their grave.
  2. On the other hand, the old dog (with almost all due respect), knows perfectly well that these are lean times and that it is necessary to operate clients morning and afternoon. The market is not going to be able to take the rain as it has in the past, although this time it looks worse, as there is no stock market crash to excuse itself for, and it is going to be a long one. However, it knows that it has alternative weapons at its disposal to continue sucking commissions from its clients who have been chastened by the traditional RV. The entities for which they work nimbly have supplied them with them. and have even trained them minimally to use them.

However, there are managers whose power of conviction is not sufficiently oppressive and who allow their clients to doze off for some time in simple deposits. while inflation eats away at them and their private banking or management company bosses lose their patience.

But let's focus on the managers and bankers of champions, the fishermen who win in troubled waters, i.e. those who really generate profits for the entities in which they work. They have managed to ensure that their clients see alternative investments as an idem for their longed-for annual capital gains of 12, 18, 25% or even more. The «perfect antidote».» against western RV downgrades. Many investors have bought alternative funds confusing them with hedge funds (which is very common) and without really knowing what either one or the other means. They just wanted to hear that these investments would continue to make money despite stock market declines.

They care little about knowing the truth. And the truth is that a alternative investment is as undefined and absurd as to say market investment. Do investors know whether their alternative investment is based on hedge funds with 50% or 800% leverage? Do they know whether they invest in yield curves or equity spreads? Do they know whether they have bought a fund of funds with corresponding fee multiples? Do they know if their money is invested in an unlisted company (venture capital) as a shareholder? Do they know if at the same time they are investing in commodities, emerging or alternative energies? Do they know if they are paying a NAV with the proceeds of a derivative or credit sale that compromises the future of their investment? etc., etc... The unfortunate majority answers are NO. At most a brief history of results and volatilities that is more than ever useless due to the constant adaptation of investment policies to the day-to-day scenario. Because an alternative investment enjoys the greatest freedom of movement for its managers. Anything goes. But if anything goes and the type and strategy of investment changes substantially and constantly, trackbacks are meaningless. If, in addition, if we de-correlate (what a nice word) In the market, not knowing where we put our money, we decide to diversify within the most absolute diversity, what investment criteria do we have? Nil.

In such cases, which are unfortunately all too common, we are only obfuscated by the promise of compensating for longed-for stock market gains. We lose sight of the North, and of course our money. The consequences are already obvious.

What's next for promiscuous investors? The arms industry of the financos It is sure to impress us with shiny new weapons of mass (patrimonial) destruction.

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