{"id":7225,"date":"2020-09-25T15:28:31","date_gmt":"2020-09-25T13:28:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/?p=7225"},"modified":"2020-09-25T15:28:31","modified_gmt":"2020-09-25T13:28:31","slug":"la-pandemia-nos-senala-camino-nuestras-inversiones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/la-pandemia-nos-senala-camino-nuestras-inversiones\/","title":{"rendered":"The Pandemic points the way for our investments."},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest data published by Funcas<\/a> The forecasts for the fall in GDP in Spain are devastating. Moreover, although the adjustment of the forecast in the rest of Europe has been slightly upward, meaning that the final fall will probably be somewhat less than the expected hit at the start of the pandemic, the economic disaster throughout Europe is bleeding. Worse still, the scarcity of production, ageing demographics, rising social spending, over-indebtedness of states and extractive taxation stretched beyond its limits make the Old Continent's economic recovery a desert that many Europeans are facing with hardly any water. Let's see the magnitude of the tragedy in the following graphs by ElEconomista<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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Nor does the US economy have much brighter prospects, despite the fact that its economic growth and taxation is enviable from a European point of view. Nevertheless, its business and innovative fabric is already allowing for a slow but much more feasible recovery than in Europe and the burden that we Latin and Greek Europeans are carrying.<\/p>\n

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The global economic centre, which has been shifting inexorably towards Asia for more than a decade now, is therefore being further boosted by the pandemic. This health crisis, which is crushing Western economic expectations as no other debacle has ever done, is creating an even more serious threat to the global economy. tremendous and silent acceleration of the process of relocation of the economic and financial centre towards China and its area of influence.<\/strong>. In this area of influence we must include such powerful economies as India, Australia, Japan, Korea and Russia itself, as well as, of course, the more orbital ones such as Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, to name just the largest.<\/p>\n

It is true that some Asian economies are also suffering relatively large GDP declines during the pandemic. But the fact that they are orbiting a gigantic locomotive like China, whose growth forecast despite the pandemic is not only positive but overwhelming, means that their medium- and long-term prospects are radically different from the desert that awaits us Westerners in general and Europeans in particular, not to mention Spain's dramatic outlook, of course.<\/p>\n

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As can be seen in the graph above, the winners in this pandemic are as clear and distant as the losers<\/strong>. In view of what lies ahead, we would do well to follow the compass of economic growth for our investments in the coming years<\/strong>. In other words, the outlook for our investments in Spain is one of insomnia, since you can already imagine the fiscal reaction that our government will perpetrate in the face of such a debacle... In other words, a confiscatory taxation never seen before (with great evils great \u00abremedies\u00bb...), in which any solution imaginative<\/em> will also be blessed by the northern countries of the EU, since every euro confiscated from ordinary Spaniards will be one euro less that the Germans and the Dutch will have to finance\/give us. Therefore, legal insecurity in Spain is going to be record-breaking in the times to come, and we would do well to replacing Spanish bank accounts and isins with Luxembourgish ones<\/a>. No one in the EU will watch over our legal certainty in the face of confiscatory governments of one colour or another. No one.<\/p>\n

We must therefore avoid investments in countries where the pandemic's scourge will result in an economic axe with very little capacity for recovery. Therefore, investments in countries such as Spain will have - and are already having - devastating prospects, or at least with very high opportunity costs compared to other investments in China or other countries with infinitely better conditions. And we are not only referring to the fact that investments in the Spanish stock market are going to be a disaster, but also to domestic real estate investments, whose demand for rents or buyers will be greatly reduced by the general impoverishment of the population and the business fabric. And we all know what happens when demand falls below supply, don't we? Well, to this we will have to add even more extractive taxation for property owners, since we are facing a State that is agonisingly tax-collecting due to the fall in GDP. A fall that goes straight into the vein of the public deficit, cuts and the more than likely desperate confiscation of everything that moves and does not move, that is, movable and immovable assets.<\/p>\n

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Therefore, in the coming years we will see stock markets with the wind at the back and stock markets with the wind at the front. And these headwinds and tailwinds are of course also applicable to real estate investments. But since buying real estate in distant and unfamiliar markets is foolhardy without a local team to look after your interests, ordinary investors should focus on equity investments in listed companies in countries with the best economic, demographic, production and financial prospects. And this obviously brings us to certain Asian markets as a priority, such as Mark Mobius already predicted a year and a half ago<\/a>. Let us not forget that there are companies in the world that own an infinite number of properties that form part of their fixed assets, and therefore when we buy their shares we are also buying them. bricks<\/em>.<\/p>\n

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The question is where to find good Asian funds, managed by strong local teams, that far outperform their respective benchmarks, and of course also the funds owned by multinational managers, who invest \u00abby hearsay\u00bb in Asia from their Western offices in London or New York. For there are already excellent Luxembourg-domiciled funds<\/a> (125,000) that overweight the fastest-growing Asian markets and are therefore accessible from just 125,000 euros. give access to a portfolio of top-tier funds for professional investors and hedge funds in Asia.<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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It is true that most advisors and other analysts continue with the old-fashioned approach of promoting Western investments as virtually the only investable universe, regarding all other options as obscure and risky \u00abemerging markets\u00bb. Nothing could be further from the truth, since the real risk lies in the European \u00abdeclining markets\u00bb and not in the Asian emerging markets, most of which are already rather emerging and form the present and future economic and financial centre, with or without Wall Street's permission.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los \u00faltimos datos publicados por Funcas respecto a las previsiones de ca\u00edda del PIB en Espa\u00f1a son demoledores. Adem\u00e1s, si bien el ajuste de la previsi\u00f3n en el resto de Europa ha sido ligeramente al alza, es decir que la ca\u00edda definitiva probablemente ser\u00e1 algo menor que el hachazo esperado al inicio de la pandemia, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":7231,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,45,41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","category-asesoramiento-deportistas-artistas","category-economia-y-finanzas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7225\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}