{"id":6375,"date":"2018-07-17T10:20:26","date_gmt":"2018-07-17T08:20:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/?p=6375"},"modified":"2018-07-17T10:20:26","modified_gmt":"2018-07-17T08:20:26","slug":"tipos-del-norte-tipos-del-sur-2a-parte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/tipos-del-norte-tipos-del-sur-2a-parte\/","title":{"rendered":"Types from the North. Types from the South (Part 2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

For those of you who have not yet done so, we recommend that you read \u00a0the first part of this article<\/a><\/strong>, in which we described a future that is much closer than some believe. In that near future, interest rates in the north of the EU could no longer be anchored to interest rates in the south. This break between the price of money in the rich countries and the price of money in the poor countries will inevitably lead to a different exchange rate for the other currencies. And as the old man said, if it walks like a duck, flies like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. In other words, if it has different rates, it will have different exchange rates, and therefore the single currency will cease to be single, which means that we will have at least two Euros, if the nomenclature is maintained.<\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the most sceptical we bring you today the article<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>prepared by Yves Longchamp's Director of Analysis Yves Longchamp from\u00a0Ethenea Advisors<\/a>. In this article Longchamp quantifies the interest rates that economies as disparate as Germany's or Italy's can bear. And it is not just that they can bear different rates but that they must be able to have them, thus adapting them to the needs of each of their economies. No reader should be unaware of the terrible consequences for economies when the price of money does not adjust to the cycle and the needs of the economic machine. And unfortunately, economic convergence ceased to be plausible for northern and southern Europeans years ago.<\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, Ethenea says that while Germany could currently operate with a rate range of between EUR 1.5 and EUR 1.5 per cent, it would be possible for the EU to operate with a rate range of between EUR 1.5 and EUR 1.5 per cent. 4,8-6,1%<\/strong>, Italy would not be able to withstand rates - at least - higher than 0,6-1,5%<\/strong>. The difference between one economy and another is abysmal, and three quarters of the same could be said about the needs of rates between other countries in the North and the South. I recommend that you read the aforementioned study<\/a> Longchamp because for more than one person it will be a slap in the face of reality that will, at the very least, give them pause for thought.<\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/p>\n

The inevitable consequences of such disparate interest rate requirements (and moreover increasing day by day) are the breakdown of the uniformity of the price of the Euro. Germany will not be able to withstand rising inflation for many more years, while in the south of the EU we are mired in debt for many decades, which requires a quasi-free price of money in order to be able to continue paying the interest. Remember that in the south we are still running budget deficits, i.e. we owe more and more money every day, despite having negative interest rates for years! The consequence of this is that in the south it is not materially possible to keep up with the rate hikes that the north of the EU will soon be demanding, following in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/p>\n

We have warned many times over the last 7 or 8 years. The single currency is doomed to cease to be unique. And investors would do well to prepare their money, their custodian banks, their investment vehicles<\/a><\/strong> and of course its investments<\/a><\/strong> for such a scenario of different rates and prices, even if the bureaucrats continue to dissemble and come up with a creative euphemism for the break-up of the Euro. Studies such as the one by Ethenea's Director of Analysis can say it louder, but not clearer. And since Cluster Family Office<\/a> We will never tire of warning of the risk unwittingly taken by investors in the South who do not prepare for their investments to be priced and priced in the North and to be geographically and qualitatively safe. As Longchamp says in his article: \u00abIgnoring a reality does not make it less real\u00bb.\u00bb<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Para los que no lo hay\u00e1is hecho todav\u00eda, os recomendamos que le\u00e1is \u00a0la primera parte de este art\u00edculo, en el que describ\u00edamos un futuro mucho m\u00e1s cercano de lo que algunos creen. En ese futuro pr\u00f3ximo los tipos de inter\u00e9s del norte de la UE ya no podr\u00edan seguir por m\u00e1s tiempo anclados a los […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6379,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,45,39,40,47,37,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualidad","category-asesoramiento-deportistas-artistas","category-crear-mi-propio-family-offices","category-gestion-financiera","category-gestion-del-patrimonio-inmobiliario","category-reflexion","category-sin-categorizar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6375"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6375\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}