{"id":6269,"date":"2018-02-13T12:31:46","date_gmt":"2018-02-13T11:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/?p=6269"},"modified":"2018-02-13T12:31:46","modified_gmt":"2018-02-13T11:31:46","slug":"louis-vincent-gave-ahora","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/louis-vincent-gave-ahora\/","title":{"rendered":"Louis Vincent Gave: \u00bfY ahora qu\u00e9?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A continuaci\u00f3n os adjuntamos la newsletter que ha enviado esta semana Louis V. Gavel, del prestigioso equipo de research de Gavekal<\/a>, en la que habla del efecto de los ETFs y la traslaci\u00f3n del centro del mundo desde los pa\u00edses tradicionalmente desarrollados hacia los emergentes. Para muestra un bot\u00f3n traducido:<\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00abOtro claro s\u00edntoma de que el entorno del mundo de la inversi\u00f3n ha cambiado es que los resultados inferiores de los mercados emergentes, que prevalecieron entre 2011 y 2016 (cuando cay\u00f3 el petr\u00f3leo, el USD subi\u00f3 y los yields se mantuvieron bajos), hoy claramente ya son historia. Estamos viviendo ahora en un mundo donde el rendimiento de los bonos tender\u00e1 a subir, el USD tender\u00e1 a bajar, y los precios del petr\u00f3leo podr\u00edan mostrar presiones alcistas. En un mundo as\u00ed, la exposici\u00f3n a los mercados emergentes una vez m\u00e1s resulta una recompensa. De hecho, un rasgo\u00a0interesante de las recientes ca\u00eddas es ver c\u00f3mo la volatilidad de los mercados de renta variable norteamericano ha sido realmente mucho mayor que la de la mayor\u00eda de mercados emergentes. Incluso despu\u00e9s de la ca\u00edda de esta semana, los mercados asi\u00e1ticos est\u00e1n significativamente mejorando los rendimientos de la renta variable global.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/p>\n

Resulta curioso ver como poco a poco el centro del planeta inversor se desplaza desde los EE.UU. y Europa hacia Asia, y con ello, la volatilidad emprende el camino contrario. O sea que mientras el desarrollo llega a los emergentes, la volatilidad viaja hacia los pa\u00edses donde el desarrollo est\u00e1 lastrado por el sobreendeudamiento. Y lo lamentable es que para la mayor\u00eda de asesores y gestores de banca privada, las propuestas de inversi\u00f3n hacia pa\u00edses donde hay crecimiento econ\u00f3mico y demogr\u00e1fico con una volatilidad en descenso (pa\u00edses emergentes), son de mayor \u00abriesgo\u00bb que los tradicionales fondos europeos y americanos, donde la anemia y la volatilidad se apoderan de sus crecimientos. Seguramente la dificultad de encontrar buenos fondos emergentes comercializables en Espa\u00f1a sin disponer de un veh\u00edculo de inversi\u00f3n adecuado<\/a>\u00a0(donde quepa cualquier fondo, hedge fund o private equity del mundo mundial difiriendo su tributaci\u00f3n como si se tratase de cualquier fondo que te vende el banco de la esquina) ayuda a que se sigan rellenando las carteras con los fondos de siempre. Pero la realidad es tozuda y el centro del mundo se desplaza inexorablemente hacia Asia, donde hay gestores\u00a0impresionantes que consiguen alphas espectaculares.<\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/p>\n

A continuaci\u00f3n la newsletter de Louis-Vincent Gave<\/a> completa, que pr\u00e1cticamente no tiene desperdicio:<\/p>\n

\n

In Agatha Christie\u2019s\u00a0Murder on the Orient Express<\/u>, the victim is stabbed by twelve different individuals.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

The same is often true of bull markets; when they die, one finds many a finger-print on the murder weapon.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

With that in mind, one could pin the death of the bond bull market on accelerating inflation, or on the globally synchronized global growth surge, or on the lack of investments in new capacity over the past decade (see\u00a0A Brave New New World<\/u>, attached), or even on the demographic shift unfolding in the Western World (see\u00a0The Savings Glut\u2019s Long Life and Slow Death<\/u>), or simply on the realization that fiscal policies all around the world are bound to stay inordinately loose for far too long (see\u00a0US Budget Deficits<\/u>, attached)\u2026 But whichever reason one wants to hang one\u2019s hat on, the bond bear market is likely here to stay.\u00a0After all, if bonds can\u2019t even rally by a few basis points as equity markets meltdown, then we must have a structural bond bear market on our hands.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>And at the risk of stating the obvious, this structural bond bear market is now clearly a headwind for equities.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

It also marks a profound shift in the investment environment.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

In a piece written close to the market top (see A Once in a Generation Shift – attached), we highlighted that OECD bonds had been the perfect counterweight to equity positions for decades. However, it wasn\u2019t always so. In periods when inflation picks up, OECD bonds do not protect portfolios against downside risk. Instead, they add to the downside risk. We also showed that one way to know whether we were in an \u2018inflationary\u2019 environment or a \u2018deflationary\u2019 environment was to look at the relative performance of long dated US Treasuries to Gold as both had asset classes tend to \u2018trend\u2019 over long periods of time. And when the ratio \u2018gold to bonds\u2019 moves ABOVE its 4 year moving average, that is typically a confirmation that we are moving into an inflationary environment. As the chart below highlights, following this week\u2019s rise in yields, such a move has now just occurred:<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

So if OECD bonds are no longer a sound hedge for equity risk, what is an investor looking to reduce the overall volatility of his portfolio, to do?<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

In the 1970s, and again in the 1987 crash, one of the best hedges (aside from gold), were German (and Swiss) bunds. Back then, the DM was slowly but surely establishing itself as Europe\u2019s trading and reserve currency; a genuine alternative to a US$ weighed down by too many years of US \u2018guns and butter\u2019 policies. Take 1987 as an example: US interest rates rose until they broke the back of the (then) roaring equity bull market. But as equities cracked and the fed slashed rates, investors sought out the safe haven of the inflation-fighting Bundesbank. So much so that, by the end of 1987, for an investor looking back at January 1986, German bunds had actually outperformed not only US Treasuries (that wasn\u2019t even close), but global equities as well:<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

So, as Yogi Berra once said, is it \u2018deja-vu all over again\u2019? After all, in the US today, we not only have guns and butter; we should also soon have bridges, and tunnels, and hip replacements and student loan write-offs etc\u2026 (see The US Budget Deficits, attached). \u00a0At the same time, we have China making a concerted push to turn the RMB into Asia\u2019s DeutscheMark, a currency that will increasingly fund Asia\u2019s trade and Asia\u2019s capital spending. And sure enough, just as global equities (World MSCI in the chart below) and US Treasuries (TLT US in the chart below)\u00a0 have started to roll over, Chinese bonds (represented below by the\u00a0Gavekal\u00a0China Fixed Income UCITS fun) have held their own. In fact, like German bunds in the fall of 1987, the\u00a0Gavekal\u00a0China Fixed Income UCITS fund has returned over 14% in US$ terms which handily beats the flat return of long dated US Treasuries, and could approach the return of global equities should global equities repeat the past week in the near future!<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Another clear sign that the investment environment has changed is that the underperformance of emerging markets, which prevailed between 2011 and 2016 (as oil fell, the US$ rose and bond yields stayed low) is now clearly over. We are now living in a world where bond yields will trend higher, the US$ is trending lower, and oil prices could show upside pressures. In such a world, exposure to emerging markets once again becomes rewarding. In fact, one of the interesting feature of the current pullback is how volatility on US equities has actually been much worse than that of most emerging markets. Even after this week\u2019s pullback, Asian markets are significantly outperforming global equities. For example, our Asian Value UCITS fund (which focuses on developing Asia) is up +31.12% over the past 12 months, while our Asian Opportunities (which includes Japan, Australia and Asian bonds) is up +23.61% over the past 12 months. This compares favorably to the +19.4% gain in the World MSCI for the past year.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Still, the question at hand is whether we are now confronting a correction? The start of a crash? Or the unfolding of a genuine bear market?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. ARGUMENTS FOR A CORRECTION:<\/strong><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n