![\"some_text\"](\"http:\/\/a.mytrend.it\/prp\/2012\/06\/405373\/o.114139.jpg\")
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It appears that August 2013 is marking the start of the Eurozone\u2019s economic recovery. Peripheral risk premiums are shrinking like raisins, whilst the price of German government bonds is falling (yields rising), mirroring US Treasury bonds. The political class and the establishment<\/em> The Western media are hailing it as such, whilst keeping their fingers crossed that the prophecy will become a self-fulfilling one.<\/p>\n However, mathematics is stubborn. And so is economics. Despite the faith and the malicious or ignorant opinions of politicians and analysts, as Galileo said:\u00a0e pur si muove<\/em><\/a>. In other words, Spain\u2019s deficit, its economic recession and its unpayable debt reveal the harsh reality: we are far, very far from achieving growth and regaining solvency. That is why reductions in the risk premium are nothing more than mirages in a desert of recession and deleveraging that we have barely begun to navigate. A temporary and unjustified improvement that is the result of political propaganda and the well-known inefficiency of the markets.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n After all, it stands to reason that the propaganda machine of the political and media establishment should all pull in the same direction. And that direction is none other than to instil in the general public the feeling that things are improving and stabilising. Because such widespread optimism tends to have positive effects that help to revive the economy, just as, conversely, pessimism deepens the crisis. That strategy, combined with the innate optimism of any elected politician desperately seeking re-election, leads the majority to overlook the real and harsh situation of the peripheral economies.<\/p>\n But although we all prefer to believe that things are improving, it is only a matter of time before Mr Market returns, even if only briefly, to pricing in the risks and insolvencies of peripheral economies and assets in an efficient manner. And when that happens \u2013 which could be a matter of weeks or months (I don\u2019t think it will be years before it does) \u2013 we will already be very close to the outcome for which the The Cyprus Experiment<\/strong><\/a>. In other words, a \u2018bail-in\u2019 scenario in which all the assets required to bail out the state and the banks are seized, both current accounts<\/strong><\/a> as property<\/strong><\/a>. And where Spanish euros \u2013 whatever remains of them \u2013 will never again be exactly the same as German or Dutch euros.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, those who prioritise short-term results over the security of their investments may absent-mindedly revel in this fleeting mirage by focusing on their returns as at 31 December, at the risk of being left high and dry at any moment. Conversely, for those who are aware that the Spanish economy continues to deteriorate and that there is no future without a massive confiscation (yet another to add to subordinated bonds and losses on bank shares) and a default or restructuring of sovereign debt, the safe havens for our money remain the shares and bonds of carefully selected companies in the emerging world. Investing where economies are growing<\/strong><\/a>, and to do so through banks based outside our borders in order to avoid the risks facing this country<\/strong><\/a>, which is quite a lot.<\/p>\n The recovery is on its way, but not to the European periphery. The US economy may be in a better position to say so, though not without hidden risks. For example, the implicit effects of the more or less imminent tapering of quantitative easing (QE), that is, the slowing down of the printing of electronic money. Because this reduction in stimulus, despite being positive for the US economy, will lead to a collapse in the price of US Treasury bonds and a loss of upward pressure on its stock market. Both assets have been so artificially inflated in recent years that their rationalisation could lead to falls that drag down many other assets by contagion. And that is where, once again, it will be key quality and reliability<\/strong> of the assets in which we have invested our money. Because if we have relied on growing, sound and cheap assets, it will only be a matter of time before we recoup our losses (for example, in fixed income) and much more besides. But if we have relied on assets whose fundamentals are not sound, or which were overly dependent on artificial stimulus from developed-world central banks, the losses may be permanent.<\/strong>\u00a0And in these times of deleveraging and the \u2018New Normal\u2019, it is precisely these permanent losses that investors must avoid like the plague.<\/p>\n The recovery may be taking hold in the US economy or even in some parts of northern Europe, but unfortunately not in the southern periphery. Whatever the dogmas of faith and other ignorant and\/or malicious rhetoric may say about a nascent stability\u2026\u00a0And yet it moves.<\/em><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Aparentemente este mes de Agosto de 2013 est\u00e1 siendo el inicio de la recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica de la Eurozona. Las primas de riesgo perif\u00e9ricas se encogen como pasas, al mismo tiempo que el bono alem\u00e1n cae de precio (yield al alza) emulando al bono del Tesoro norteamericano. La clase pol\u00edtica y el establishment medi\u00e1tico occidental as\u00ed […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,42,39,52,37,48,55],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asesoramiento-deportistas-artistas","category-estrategia","category-crear-mi-propio-family-offices","category-asesoramiento-patrimonial-multi-family-office","category-reflexion","category-asesoramiento-patrimonial-multi-family-office-crear-mi-propio-family-offices","category-necesito-un-family-office"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3547\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}