{"id":343,"date":"2009-06-29T03:20:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-29T03:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/blog\/?p=343"},"modified":"2009-06-29T03:20:00","modified_gmt":"2009-06-29T03:20:00","slug":"de-quien-es-el-futuro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/de-quien-es-el-futuro\/","title":{"rendered":"Whose future is it?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>Let\u2019s talk exclusively about the financial aspect of wealth. Just this once, and without setting a precedent. Let\u2019s focus solely on stock market investments and the future \u2013 which is more uncertain than ever \u2013 that investors are facing.<\/p>\n

The current market landscape is, and will remain in the coming years, more turbulent than ever. And in the times ahead, it will be very common to see meteoric rises in various forms of investment (sectors, strategies, management styles, trading techniques\u2026), as well as spectacular crashes and the failure of funds and managers who prove themselves incompetent in the face of the a new world (which we already warned about in 2007)<\/a> of the investment. And that makes sense, since you have to stoke the fire to see flames. Whilst some achieve consistently good results (for example, in unit trusts) or stand out as outstanding investors (such as Buffett), many others must remain mediocre, whilst still others must be wiped off the map as the multi-bubbles \u2013 which will be created by the massive injections of money thrown into the fray \u2013 burst here and there.<\/p>\n

Over the next few years, we are going to see the harsh reality demonstrated by the Monte Carlo simulation<\/a> and that only the truly great<\/a> manage to outperform consistently over time. The shortcomings caused by the widespread availability of funds managed by incompetent people will be laid bare, as every small bank and non-bank fund manager has, in recent years, set up its own investment funds using \u00abthe cream of the crop\u00bb from its limited staff. \"\"<\/a>Managers who shone somewhat during the boom years but are limited in ability and experience (some of them, not all), and whose shortcomings will be painfully exposed in the complex times that lie ahead. All of them with loaded guns in their hands which, in some cases, will wipe out the savings of those who placed their trust in the false glamour of their mediocrity during these crazy last 20 years (comparable to the Roaring Twenties<\/a>). It is no surprise that almost all bank customers have at some point heard their bank manager say things along the lines of: The fund you\u2019ve asked me about is on a different platform to the one we use (either it\u2019s not available, or the fees are too high, etc.), but we have another one that\u2019s just as good or even better \u2013 you\u2019re going to love it.<\/span>.<\/p>\n

The rise of self-made, self-taught investors; the flood of courses and publications; investment training and pseudo-training of all kinds; and the globalisation of all this via the internet \u2013 whilst it has brought benefits in a few honourable exceptions \u2013 has done, and will continue to do, the rest. The medium-term result of this phenomenon: the \u2018Best\u2019 \u2013 with a capital \u2018B\u2019 \u2013 will triumph, those who possess the top managers<\/span> stable<\/span> with a distinguished track record, rigorous, cycle-proof methodologies, agility and brilliant intuition. Only the truly Great \u2013 in the broadest sense of the word \u2013 will be able to remain in their respective top quartiles over the coming years. And that universal law of continuity <\/span>sustainable in the long term<\/span> in the first quartile,<\/span> will be more enlightening than ever in a turbulent situation such as the one we are facing.<\/p>\n

The past belonged to them and, above all, the future belongs to them. But to all of them? No. The world has changed in many ways, and there are also various reasons to expect that the core<\/span> future success changes hands more often than might be expected. For example:<\/p>\n