{"id":22957,"date":"2009-08-09T20:15:00","date_gmt":"2009-08-09T20:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/blog\/?p=322"},"modified":"2009-08-09T20:15:00","modified_gmt":"2009-08-09T20:15:00","slug":"bolsa-y-razon-no-se-hablan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/bolsa-y-razon-no-se-hablan\/","title":{"rendered":"Bolsa and Raz\u00f3n are not on speaking terms."},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>There are many highly respected and eminent voices predicting an imminent crash in the equity markets. And they have good reason to do so. But we must not forget that La Bolsa and La Raz\u00f3n<\/span> They don\u2019t always get on, even though they\u2019re old friends. There are times when they don\u2019t even look each other in the face; however, as time goes by they usually make up<\/a>. But only temporarily, until the next outburst, gaffe, shock, blunder, childish prank, misdeed or witty remark<\/span> of the volatile and chaotic stock market, which will once again undermine its relationship with Reason for an unforeseeable period of time.<\/p>\n

Some<\/a> they overlook the Reason<\/span> and they\u2019re only concerned with the Stock market<\/span>, following it through its ups and downs wherever it goes, with a few managing to understand and interpret it well enough to benefit from it, at least for a short while. But many of us cannot understand one without the other in the medium and long term, despite their repeated disagreements.<\/p>\n

It seems clear that, at present, Raz\u00f3n and Bolsa are going through one of their periods of squabbling and estrangement, but personally I like to try, from time to time, to look beyond the obvious, as we did in the banking meme<\/a>. It\u2019s not that I\u2019m naturally suspicious, but it wouldn\u2019t hurt to consider the possibility that, even though they appear to be at loggerheads, they might actually still be very good friends and, as the song goes, shake hands under the table:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Let us imagine that perhaps we are misinterpreting the sentiments of Reason, and that in reality the stock market is following criteria similar to those of its partner through thick and thin. Perhaps the behaviour of an exuberant stock market is more reasonable than it seems, now that the US financial system has overcome the imminent threat of collapse. The ground that had vanished from beneath our feet (and I am not referring to the stock market floor but to that of systemic risk) was not regained until early 2009. Let us remember that a global collapse of the system was a real possibility as recently as 10 months ago.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Back then, when \u2013 despite the scepticism of the majority \u2013 the banks\u2019 zero value could be justified (in an impeccable and pioneering manner by Investorsconundrum<\/a>), we also seek to go beyond the obvious logic. \"\"<\/a>And we try, in the article The Broken Bank<\/a> on 3 November 2008, we sought to find arguments to justify the banks retaining a certain value despite being bankrupt both in accounting and practical terms. In short, we tried to find reasons where there appeared to be none. And we found them. It turned out that the irrational reasons<\/span> the factors we had sensed were necessary for the banking sector to be worth more than zero were confirmed. Proof of this was what we were able to write six months later in The Broken Bank II<\/a>. And ever since we said in that article of 27 April: \u00ab\u00bbIf we\u2019re thinking about a high-risk speculative investment, perhaps now is the time to buy shares in major US banks\"<\/span>, Bank of America\u2019s shares have risen by 70% and those of Goldman Sachs by more than 40%.<\/p>\n

Perhaps that hand under the tablecloth<\/span> It is the elimination of systemic risk that is driving the current stock market frenzy. Given that the stability of the financial system has been guaranteed, with hyperinflation on the horizon \u2013 a scenario that is also reasonably plausible \u2013 with the share prices of financial institutions rising sharply from the depths of hell, with macroeconomic figures showing a slowdown in the rate of decline in the US, and with interest rates practically at zero, etc., perhaps their apparent indifference is not what it seems. And so we should not expect them to make up in the form of significant falls or new lows, but rather to continue their clandestine romance beneath the gaze of most analysts. Of course, if the rises take hold over time, more and more analysts will bend down to take a closer look under the tablecloth<\/span>...<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\u2026But let\u2019s not jump to conclusions, because what is clear is that Bolsa and Raz\u00f3n are not on speaking terms at the moment.<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Son muchas las voces respetabil\u00edsimas y eminentes que auguran una inminente ca\u00edda de los mercados de RV. Y no les faltan razones. Pero no debemos olvidar que la Bolsa y la Raz\u00f3n no siempre van de la mano a pesar de que sean viejas amigas. Viven periodos en que ni siquiera se miran a la […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sin-categorizar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22957\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}