{"id":22911,"date":"2009-02-01T00:01:00","date_gmt":"2009-02-01T00:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/blog\/?p=406"},"modified":"2009-02-01T00:01:00","modified_gmt":"2009-02-01T00:01:00","slug":"poker-de-cracks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/poker-de-cracks\/","title":{"rendered":"Poker of the Best."},"content":{"rendered":"
In the following graph from dshort.com<\/a> We can see how the four most devastating crashes in the modern history of the global economy have unfolded over time. The chart shows four colours corresponding to the downward trends of:<\/div>\n
\n
    \n
  1. The Oil Crisis from 11 January 1973 to 3 October 1974.<\/li>\n
  2. This is the dot-com crash, which lasted from 24 March 2000 to 9 October 2002.<\/li>\n
  3. The Crash of '29 and the Great Depression, from 3 September 1929 to 8 July 1932.<\/li>\n
  4. The collapse of the current credit bubble, from 9 October 2007 until an as yet undetermined date in the future.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"\"<\/a>
    \"\"<\/a>It should be noted that the graph shows, on the vertical axis, the percentage decline from the benchmark index\u2019s previous high. Meanwhile, the horizontal axis shows the duration of these falls, with the figures corresponding to trading days. It should also be noted that the Crash of \u201929 is based on the Dow, whilst the other three are based on the S&P 500.<\/p>\n

    What conclusions can we draw from this chart? For example, we have now seen a 50% decline in as few trading sessions as occurred during the Crash of \u201929, whereas the other two declines took many more weeks to unfold. In other words, the steepness of this fall is, so far, only comparable to that of 1929.<\/p>\n

    On the other hand, we must also bear in mind that the cause of the current crisis is not confined to a specific sector, as was the case in 1973, namely the energy sector (an interesting article from 1975 on the subject)<\/a>, or in 2000, technological (El Mundo\u2019s 2000 Year in Review<\/a>). As we have mentioned on previous occasions We are facing a multifaceted crisis involving deleveraging and a liquidity trap on an unprecedented scale<\/span>. Moreover, in a world that is more globalised than ever before, and of course in no way comparable to what happened in 1929.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a>We should also bear in mind that the chart of the 1929 crash only depicts the main bear market cycle from 1929 to 1932. Under no circumstances can we limit the effects of the Great Depression to the 800 trading sessions covered by the chart, as we must remember that it represents the percentage decline from the previous high. But the harsh reality of the Great Depression lasted right up until the US entered the Second World War following the attack on Pearl Harbour. Therefore, if we compare the current situation with what we see in the 1929 chart, the current depression could last far beyond the 800 sessions shown. And I am not suggesting that we will see a continuous market decline like that of the 1929\u20131932 period (although we are well on the way to it), but rather that even with intermittent, slight and fleeting price recoveries, the period during which we will be traversing a desert of bullish financial investments may be even much longer than what we see in this simple chart.<\/p>\n

    Our current economic downturn is without parallel, and so this comparative exercise is highly speculative; however, we should bear in mind that the 800- or 1,000-session period shown in this chart represents nothing more than a single phase of the Great Depression of 1929. And as we have already said, the current crisis is underpinned by unprecedented factors that could make the depression even deeper and longer. \"\"<\/a>However, the current wave of globalisation may have harmful effects by amplifying and prolonging the crisis, as has been the case so far, or, conversely, it may play a decisive role in bringing about a much swifter and more remarkable recovery. Only time will tell.<\/p>\n

    In the meantime, we should be highly sceptical of predictions of an imminent recovery based on absurd cyclical statistics, drawn from the past and\/or recent times, from when the world was capitalist. Today we still do not know what to call the direction we are heading in, but it is something else, a new era where liquidity seems to be the only currency in circulation so far.<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    En el siguiente gr\u00e1fico de dshort.com vemos c\u00f3mo han evolucionado hist\u00f3ricamente los 4 crash m\u00e1s demoledores de la Historia moderna de la Econom\u00eda mundial. En \u00e9l vemos cuatro colores que corresponden a los recorridos bajistas de: La Crisis del Petr\u00f3leo desde el 11 de Enero de 1973 hasta el 3 de Octubre de 1974. Es […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sin-categorizar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22911\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}