{"id":22853,"date":"2008-07-15T09:10:00","date_gmt":"2008-07-15T09:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/blog\/?p=486"},"modified":"2008-07-15T09:10:00","modified_gmt":"2008-07-15T09:10:00","slug":"el-seismo-y-el-tsunami","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/el-seismo-y-el-tsunami\/","title":{"rendered":"Earthquake and Tsunami."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/2007\/06\/crisis-what-crisis.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">23 June 2007:<\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<blockquote style=\"font-weight: bold;\"><p>(\u2026) But \u201cdon\u2019t worry\u201d, things won\u2019t get that bad. Our financial system is not in mortal danger as long as there is still scope for greater social hardship. Unfortunately, that\u2019s just the way the game is played. But the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/fernan2\/2007\/06\/el-efecto-anclaje-y-el-subconsciente.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">anchor effect<\/a> In good times, it helps us look the other way. As he said, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.supertramp.com\/albums.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Supetramp<\/a> in 1975: Crisis? What Crisis?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Nowadays, no one can turn a blind eye any longer. We all know \u2013 even the most optimistic or misinformed amongst us (where have I heard that phrase before?) \u2013 that we are in a crisis. Or rather, a Crisis, with a capital C. Some have found it very hard to conceive of a major crisis without a stock market crash, with the permission of the <a style=\"font-weight: bold;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/2008\/01\/crack-o-tormenta-perfecta-vctimas-o.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">draft of 21 January<\/a> That may be in the past, but nowadays even those with the slowest reactions know that the West is in crisis. Nevertheless, it seems that the dangers which some saw as threatening the survival of the financial system will be resolved through global impoverishment.<\/p>\n<p><a onblur=\"try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/uploaded_images\/051225.chabolas.Navidad-717503.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 593px; height: 352px;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/uploaded_images\/051225.chabolas.Navidad-717499.jpg\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a>The rise in energy costs has undoubtedly fuelled this sense of crisis. Yet, for most people, it is still little more than a feeling. Prices are rising as a direct consequence of the cost of crude oil, but the impact on employment resulting from the fall in consumption is still in its early stages. Unemployment is only just beginning to rise, and society has barely begun to feel the consequences of the economic system\u2019s decline. Moreover, coming as it does on the heels of unprecedented consumerist excesses and financial extravagance, the fall will be all the more painful. The earthquake has struck \u2013 seismologists know this only too well \u2013 but the general public, despite some increasingly urgent voices of alarm, remains largely oblivious as it awaits the arrival of the <a href=\"http:\/\/z.about.com\/d\/urbanlegends\/1\/0\/T\/5\/tsunami_sm.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tsunami<\/a>.<br \/><div class=\"connecta-video-container\" style=\"margin: 2em 0;\"><iframe title=\"tsunami\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/o-JDJs_5kQQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div><br \/>Very few people realise the scale of the tragedy, because very few are affected. In other words, wartime household economies involving drastic belt-tightening only occur in cases where people are already feeling the pinch. The rest hear about the crisis every day but remain confident that their lives will not change substantially. At most, they\u2019ll have fewer holidays or fewer expensive luxuries such as new cars, and so on. But the reality is that many will lose a large part of their income, and the adjustments will have to be far more drastic.<\/p>\n<p><a onblur=\"try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/uploaded_images\/030422PobresChabolas-755590.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 589px; height: 442px;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/uploaded_images\/030422PobresChabolas-755586.jpg\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a>Fortunately, we have room for even greater social hardship. I hope no one takes offence: what I mean is that, generally speaking, until just a few months ago, the middle class was spending and getting into debt far beyond its actual means. And the upper-middle class too \u2013 you only have to look at the record figures for Ferraris sold amongst people whose fortunes were not sufficient to afford such luxuries. The fact that we\u2019ve gorged ourselves on consumer credit, mortgages and Caribbean holidays until we were almost in a drunken stupor condemns us to a massive and long, very long hangover. The cycle of a deep and complex crisis such as this can be a long one. Although political, business and institutional forces are trying to convince the public that after a couple of bad years we\u2019ll have atoned for our sins, the sad reality is quite different. In all likelihood (since we do not have the crystal ball that some seem to possess), in Spain property sellers will not see their market valuations improve over the next 5 or even 10 years, nor will we be able to fill our savings accounts at last year\u2019s rates, nor will the banks resume offering mortgages for 80% of the valuation (despite some official voices recklessly calling for this), nor consumer loans without solid guarantees, nor\u2026<\/p>\n<p><a onblur=\"try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/uploaded_images\/nikkei-744276-767103.gif\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 580px; height: 324px;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/uploaded_images\/nikkei-744276-767098.gif\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a>In Japan, there have been no capital gains of any kind for almost 20 years: not in wages, prices, property values or, of course, the stock market. That recessionary model, which to us seems like economic fiction, actually exists. The much-repeated phrases heard in Spain, such as: \u00abProperty prices never fall\u00bb; or \u00abyou always make a profit in the stock market in the medium term\u00bb; or even \u00abeverything is getting more expensive every day\u00bb, are a pipe dream for the Japanese of the past 20 years\u2019 generation. And 20 years is almost half a lifetime as an investor \u2013 let\u2019s not forget that. I shall never tire of pointing out that the Dow Jones itself rose by a mere 10% between 1965 and 1983 (18 years), and that was in a growth environment, not a recessionary one.<\/p>\n<p><a onblur=\"try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/uploaded_images\/conjuncion-710974.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 561px; height: 347px;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/uploaded_images\/conjuncion-710971.jpg\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a>As if in a Machiavellian astronomical alignment, a number of fateful circumstances are coinciding today in both time (since around 2007) and place (the West): The collapse of the <a style=\"font-weight: bold;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/2007\/10\/anatoma-de-la-crisis-de-crdito-dnde-est.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">abuse in securitisation<\/a>, <a style=\"font-weight: bold;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/2008\/05\/show-must-go-on-el-derrotismo.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the bursting of the property bubble<\/a>, <a style=\"font-weight: bold;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/2008\/02\/el-vendedor-de-tiempo-vs-el-vendedor-de.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">predatory lending<\/a> widespread and a <a style=\"font-weight: bold;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rankia.com\/blog\/familyoffice\/2008\/06\/la-distopa-petrolfera-de-mad-max-few.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">oil crisis<\/a> which goes beyond rising prices (peak oil). As you may have noticed, I do not include a stock market crash, although it is clear that many <span style=\"font-style: italic;\">reservations<\/span> families\u2019 assets were <span style=\"font-style: italic;\">poorly armoured<\/span> in shares (can you believe it?), which are also looking very battered today, thereby exacerbating the consequences of this coincidental convergence of fatal factors. A planetary alignment resulting from bad luck? Not at all. It is nothing more than the result of our excesses, abuses and our own misdeeds. Let\u2019s hope the outcome is less unpleasant and traumatic than the excesses of the protagonist in the following memorable clip from Monty Python\u2019s *The Meaning of Life*.<br \/><div class=\"connecta-video-container\" style=\"margin: 2em 0;\"><iframe title=\"The Meaning of Life \u2013 The Autumn Years\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Y2Bs1ZZ-7b8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div><br \/>Despite everything, I\u2019d like to end on a somewhat optimistic note, and I\u2019d like to believe that a glimmer of economic hope will break through the bleak horizon \u2013 one I cannot yet foresee \u2013 and that it will cushion the fall (alternative energy, a technological boom, emerging economies\u2026 who knows). Although I\u2019m not entirely sure it\u2019s either healthy or prudent to avoid a certain disaster that would allow us to start afresh on a clean slate, capable of withstanding our future excesses.<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>23 de Junio de 2007: (&#8230;)Pero \u201ctranquilos\u201d, la sangre de todos no llegar\u00e1 al r\u00edo. Nuestro sistema financiero no corre peligro de muerte mientras quede margen para una mayor miseria social. Lamentablemente as\u00ed son las reglas del juego. Pero el efecto anclaje en los buenos tiempos nos ayuda a mirar hacia otro lado. Como dijo [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sin-categorizar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22853\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}