{"id":22802,"date":"2007-09-22T10:52:00","date_gmt":"2007-09-22T10:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/blog\/?p=576"},"modified":"2007-09-22T10:52:00","modified_gmt":"2007-09-22T10:52:00","slug":"luz-al-final-del-tunel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/luz-al-final-del-tunel\/","title":{"rendered":"Light at the end of the tunnel?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/a>They are starting to to hear<\/span> The first comments regarding the system\u2019s ability to absorb the effects of the credit crisis. I find it truly reassuring that this is the case, although, as I mentioned to you during the tense heatwave this summer, I have always believed this to be true. Are we out of the woods yet? Not at all. I would even go so far as to say that the worst may still be to come. However, I believe the uncertainty surrounding the resilience of the vital structures of our global economy is gradually dissipating in a positive way.<\/div>\n
\n
As I have also mentioned on a few occasions, we are living through historic times that may well be remembered as the Credit Crisis of 2007 or 2008. And we have already gone through its initial phases, during which \u2013 understandably, though regrettably \u2013 all manner of atrocious things have been written.<\/p>\n

At first, there were weeks of sceptical uncertainty; then the first concepts began to gain widespread acceptance, which the internet<\/span> was responsible for globalise<\/span>, such as: Subprime<\/span>, credit<\/span> crunch<\/span>, securitisation<\/span>, credit quality, central bank intervention, liquidity injections and so on and so forth. All this against a backdrop of the threat of Islamic terrorism and record highs for oil, gold and the euro. In short, intense emotions that some hysterical individuals have been unable to cope with, leading them to write and express their opinions premonitions<\/span> apocalyptic.<\/p>\n

As for the highs in the \u20ac\/$, I have always said that currency speculation is the mother of all speculation. But if I may take the liberty of offering my opinion on the possible future trajectory of the US dollar (a bad habit if ever there was one), I would say the following: I do not believe we will see a strong dollar until the global landscape undergoes a very substantial shift. This shift could take the form of a gradual appreciation of the Yuan<\/span>, or even a complete change in the international policy of the US<\/span>.US<\/span>. with a Republican handover.<\/p>\n

Until such a shift in the global landscape takes place, the desirability of a weak dollar \u2013 in a context of high oil prices and Chinese manufactured goods being sold at unfairly low prices all over the world \u2013 will be a decisive factor. It seems commonly<\/span> accepted and strategically sound. Nevertheless, I find it reckless that a reputable analyst should so strongly recommend taking any speculative position in foreign exchange.<\/p>\n

The presence of products made<\/span> <\/span>in<\/span> China<\/span> in every corner of the globe will be comparable to a monopoly from <\/span>in fact<\/span> which Microsoft enjoys in the IT world. Although, on reflection, state interference in artificially maintaining the exchange rate of its currency makes this phenomenon all the more glaring.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve already mentioned this in God<\/span> Bless<\/span> China (2)<\/a> , we are witnessing a clash of titans, with most of us simply watching from the sidelines. But as in any game of poker<\/span>, the linnet bears the brunt of it, despite being able to weather prolonged periods of hardship thanks to its enormous size. The small card shark<\/span> The Japanese don\u2019t have enough money on the table to keep up with the big players, but on a smaller scale, they do try to follow in the footsteps of their American mentor, even though some criticise them for encouraging the carry<\/span> trade<\/span><\/a>. The important thing is not to end the game in such a precarious situation as the great novice known as EU<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Leaving currency matters aside, we might think that we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel<\/span>. But let\u2019s not kid ourselves: The tunnel<\/span> There is a way out, but before we reach it we\u2019ll have to get through the toughest stretch we\u2019ve faced so far. We are beginning to grasp the scale of the problem we face, although there are still some unknowns. So some will go from panicking about the unknown to panicking about the known, but I believe the former does far more damage to the global economic system.<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Se empiezan a o\u00edr las primeras voces respecto a la capacidad del Sistema para asimilar los efectos de la crisis de cr\u00e9dito. Realmente me reconforta que as\u00ed sea, aunque como ya os he comentado durante la can\u00edcula de tensi\u00f3n del verano, siempre he cre\u00eddo en ello. \u00bfEstamos ya fuera de peligro? En absoluto. Incluso dir\u00eda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sin-categorizar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22802"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22802\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}