{"id":1600,"date":"2012-01-17T15:38:44","date_gmt":"2012-01-17T13:38:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/blog\/?p=1600"},"modified":"2012-01-17T15:38:44","modified_gmt":"2012-01-17T13:38:44","slug":"un-mundo-sin-calificadoras-de-riesgo-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/un-mundo-sin-calificadoras-de-riesgo-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Un mundo sin calificadoras de riesgo (3)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"\u00abWhat would happen if credit rating agencies ceased to exist? It is a question that few of us ask ourselves today, but one that leads to some fascinating reflections.<\/em>\u00bbThat\u2019s how it began\"\u00a0the article<\/a> que publicamos hace m\u00e1s de 2 a\u00f1os. Lamentablemente hoy es un debate que ocupa las portadas de los medios por motivos muy tristes, ya que se cuestiona el rol de las calificadoras \u00fanica y exclusivamente porque han rebajado masivamente los ratings europeos. Esta misma reacci\u00f3n (la de la opini\u00f3n p\u00fablica e institucional) ya ocurri\u00f3 con el downgrade del rating de Portugal, aunque en menor medida. Manda huevos que las corruptas e incompetentes calificadoras sean las m\u00e1s l\u00facidas en este mundo de locos endeudados. Os dejamos releer aquel breve art\u00edculo del 16 de Diciembre de 2009, parece que fue ayer, y despu\u00e9s haremos varias reflexiones al respecto, algunas de las cuales ya comentamos en la segunda parte del art\u00edculo el pasado verano. Reflexiones que lamentablemente son tan vigentes como hace 4 a\u00f1os.\u00a0\"\"<\/div>\n
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\u00abFirstly, it must be said that if credit rating agencies had not existed, it would have been far more difficult to abuse the issuance of all kinds of debt securities on a global scale. And that is something that would have largely prevented the widespread proliferation of toxic assets that have infected the entire financial system, as well as the pockets of countless investors and \u00abinvestor-addicts\u2019 (it\u2019s interesting to re-read the article \u2018Financos and Invers\u00f3patas: An explosive mix<\/a>\u00bbwritten two and a half years ago \u2013 now more than four \u2013 just before the financial collapse began).<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In fact, investment banking \u2013 which last year (2003) became extinct just as dramatically as the dinosaurs \u2013,\u00a0did without its own risk analysts<\/a> in recent decades. And it did so to cut costs by relying on\u00a0blindly<\/strong> in the ratings issued by companies that are supposedly specialised: credit rating agencies (offenders who should be dealt with by the duty court<\/a>). A grave mistake that has plunged us into a systemic void which is being filled with ever more debt. Even today, the risks associated with investments in\u00a0blind supports<\/strong> in rating agencies and in departments that are supposedly specialised, but are nothing more than a\u00a0a realm of analytical mediocrity<\/a>, upon which the foundations of the system are pseudo-based. The leaflets from more than half the universe of\u00a0IICs<\/a>They restrict the types of investment they can make on the basis of credit ratings. Furthermore, the regulatory frameworks in each country impose conditions on the investment criteria for these instruments that go beyond what is desirable, but that is a different kind of shortcoming, as we have already noted in the controversial article \u00abThe Unbearable Lightness of the Fund Manager<\/a>\u00ab. But a downgrade of a country\u2019s credit rating, such as that suffered by Greece \u2013<\/em>Today, Portugal too\u2014\u00a0or the imminent one in Spain, still accounts for the market\u2019s mediocre perception of risk. And that is regrettable, given the track record of the credit rating agencies\u2019 utter unreliability.<\/em><\/div>\n
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It is a sad spectacle: the downgrades of Dubai\u2019s credit rating with the benefit of hindsight, the decision to maintain Spain\u2019s sovereign debt at AA+, or the unspoken political barrier surrounding what is considered investment grade and what is not. The fact is, we are watching in astonishment as utterly absurd credit ratings are issued. But the most curious thing is that many fund managers (and, of course, investors), despite the fact that some are already criticising the rating criteria, continue to be guided by them. It is the easiest, most convenient and \u00abpractical\u00bb way to shirk the responsibility of analysing risk for oneself or for clients. And so the majority carry on, immersed in a sea of\u00a0mediocrity and prostitution<\/a><\/strong> by the credit rating agencies.<\/em><\/div>\n
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Consequently, our thinking \u2013 and our long-standing practice \u2013 leads us to disregard the rating agencies.\u00a0Try living without paying any attention to the appalling work these companies do. That will force you to think things through more carefully and to take more responsibility for yourselves and\/or for others. But you\u2019ll certainly live a better life.<\/strong>\u00ab<\/em><\/div>\n
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\"\"De rabiosa y lamentable actualidad este art\u00edculo escrito a finales de 2009, desde luego. Hoy el debate sobre la inconveniencia de las calificaciones crediticias est\u00e1 sobre la mesa debido al escozor que la Eurozona siente con el downgrade de diversos pa\u00edses europeos. Nada m\u00e1s. Desgraciadamente no se est\u00e1 cuestionando la conveniencia de tener o no unas empresas privadas que nos cuantifiquen algo tan complejo y subjetivo como el riesgo, no. Tan s\u00f3lo se plantea crear otra calificadora, esta vez europea o no norteamericana, que sea m\u00e1s ben\u00e9vola con la cr\u00edtica situaci\u00f3n de quiebra perif\u00e9rica europea. Se reclama pol\u00edticamente desde Europa la creaci\u00f3n de m\u00e1s calificaciones tan fraudulentas, corruptas y prostitu\u00eddas como las americanas, pero esta vez de un color que nos favorezca. Se esgrimen razonamientos nacionalistas, de estabilidad financiera, de falta de diversificaci\u00f3n, de estabilizaci\u00f3n del Sistema, etc. Pero en ning\u00fan caso, lamentablemente, se cuestiona la validez ni la existencia de las calificadoras como tal.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Let us remember that, at present, credit rating agencies are not registered as such, nor even as auditors. Their ratings,\u00a0que sirven de gu\u00eda ciega y demente para todo el Sistema financiero global<\/strong>, legally speaking, they are nothing more than journalistic opinions. In other words, they carry no greater legal weight than any opinion expressed by an ordinary columnist. Consequently, their legal liability for such incompetent and\/or corrupt characterisations as those endured over the past four years is nil. The absurdity is so profound that\u00a0the foundations of the system are laid in a carefree and reckless manner<\/strong> merely \u00abjournalistic opinions\u00bb from a legal point of view, which have been shown to be\u00a0complete con artists<\/a><\/strong> since the sub-prime crisis. And I am certainly not one to advocate elevating credit ratings to the status of universal laws \u2013 which is how they are perceived and treated by the majority of the global financial system \u2013 no, I would not even elevate them to the level of mere audits. The path we must follow is quite a different one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\"\"Does it really seem logical to us that something as complex as risk quantification could be reduced, across the board, to a simplistic and rudimentary code of A, B or C?\u00a0Risk measurement in the financial world is, and must be, an extremely complex art<\/strong>. And yet the rating agencies, in a display of sophistication, merely add to the basic A, B and C ratings other secondary ones such as a, b and c, or numbers like 1, 2 or 3, and other such symbols that do nothing more than refine the aberration of mediocrity.\u00a0It is madness that this code, derived from \u00abjournalistic opinions\u00bb, should govern the concept and the art of measuring risk across the system as a whole<\/strong>. And the worst thing is that we don\u2019t realise what a surreal world we live in.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The question one must ask is, as the \u2018universal Portuguese\u2019 would say (and I\u2019m not referring to Durao Barroso), \u2018why?\u2019. How is it possible that the System with a capital \u2018S\u2019 relies on risk ratings that seek to reduce the complexity of life itself, of risk, and of predicting nothing less than future events to a handful of letters and numbers? The answer is that it is cheaper and infinitely more convenient to have others with prestige measure the risk for us. It saves on analysis costs (a priori), simplifies the work and, most importantly if that\u2019s possible, disclaims liability.<\/strong> And we must all acknowledge that these three arguments I have just mentioned are far too tempting for the majority of humankind, particularly in the financial world, which includes advisers, fund managers, investors, and so on. And if something then goes wrong,\u00a0Blame it on the boogie<\/em>!<\/a> Because human beings, by nature, always tend (barring a few honourable exceptions who end up shining far brighter than the rest) to absolve themselves of all responsibility, blaming others for their misfortunes. For this reason, and also because of their malleability (the noun form of the verb\u00a0to tamper with<\/a>\u2026) of the credit rating agencies: these have been elevated to the status of saints by governments and powerful figures, with the approval of the rest of us mere mortals involved in the financial system, including investors and savers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Hace muchos a\u00f1os que los ratings dejaron de tener sentido en nuestros an\u00e1lisis en Cluster Family Office. Es cierto que nadamos a contracorriente y que a menudo chocamos contra limitaciones y coeficientes que est\u00e1n basados en esas opiniones period\u00edsticas elevadas a categor\u00eda de dogmas de fe por todas las entidades financieras. Es una lucha desesperante y permanente contra muros de mediocridad. Pero como dijo Warren Buffett, cuando se retira la marea es cuando se ve quien nadaba desnudo. Y la marea se comenz\u00f3 a retirar ya en el verano de 2007. Es m\u00e1s,\u00a0It is possible that, in this \u2018New Normal\u2019, we will no longer have tides<\/a> lo suficientemente importantes como para que cubran nuestras verg\u00fcenzas.<\/p>\n

Many seem to prefer to take the blue pill<\/a> y reclamar la creaci\u00f3n de una agencia europea -\u00e9ramos pocos y pari\u00f3 la abuela- que califique a martillazos aquello que nos convenga. Y quiz\u00e1 as\u00ed sus alucinaciones les hagan creer que, como ven\u00eda sucediendo en el Old Normal, la marea sube y les cubre sus miserias. Quiz\u00e1 cuando les llegue el agua al cuello se den cuenta de que debieron tomar la p\u00edldora roja, y que\u00a0jam\u00e1s debieron permitir que otros cuantificasen el riesgo asumido por ellos, <\/strong>a nivel personal y lo que es a\u00fan peor, para Clientes.<\/p>\n

Finally, I leave you with the advertising slogan of Standard & Poors, which is not to be missed, pay attention to the words in bold:<\/p>\n

\"\"\u201cStandard & Poor\u2019s is the world\u2019s foremost provider of independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research and data. We supply investors with the independent benchmarks\u00a0they need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions<\/strong>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Standard & Poor's.<\/em><\/p>\n

Al final va a ser que tenemos lo que merecemos.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00ab\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasar\u00eda si las calificadoras de riesgo dejaran de existir? Es una pregunta que a\u00fan pocos nos hacemos hoy en d\u00eda, pero que nos lleva a reflexiones interesant\u00edsimas.\u00bb As\u00ed comenzaba\u00a0el art\u00edculo que publicamos hace m\u00e1s de 2 a\u00f1os. Lamentablemente hoy es un debate que ocupa las portadas de los medios por motivos muy tristes, ya […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[38,45,40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualidad","category-asesoramiento-deportistas-artistas","category-gestion-financiera"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1600\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/clusterfamilyoffice.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}